THIS LIST ASSUMES THE DICKEY TRADE GOES THROUGH AS PROJECTED.
1) Travis D’Arnaud, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+. ***
2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. ***
3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. ***
4) Wilmer Flores, 3B-2B, Grade B+: Borderline B. ***
5) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B ***
6) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. ***
7) Luis Mateo, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. ***
8) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B ***
9) Gavin Cecchini, SS, Grade B ***
10) Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade B-: ***
11) Domingo Tapia, RHP, Grade B-: ***
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1. PreservedFish Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4326701)Unfortunately, I fear that the 2016 Phillies prospect report will go uncommented on.
awkward little platoon
A fine handle if one were so inclined.
He's not a prospect, but I'd see if they can send pitching prospects to the Angels for Bourjos.
yeah, couldn't they pretty much have say, Hamilton, Reyes, Dickey, and another OF bat (Swisher?)
I think I read the payroll is around $90 million right now. The first three guys I listed would put them around $135 million. There were 4 teams with payrolls over $150 million last year, so it wouldn't be a big deal for them to spend something like $15 million on Swisher. (Or $8 million on Melky).
How good is that team?
C Thole
1B Davis
2B Tejada (or murph?)
SS Reyes
3B Wright
OF you could play Hamilton in CF, or put him in a corner with Swisher/Melky and play Kirk in CF or something
Rotation would be Dickey, Santana, Niese, Harvey, and Gee.
That's at least a contending team, no? The Mets won 74 games last year. They got, and I am not making this up, about 4 WAR from all of their OF last year. Hamilton has been a solid 4 win player at his worst. (I'm going with fangraphs here). Swisher
s WAR's are hilarious; in 5 of the last 7 years he has been between 3.8 and 4.1, so pencil him in for around 4 as well. Or Melky, 3-4 WAR seems like a reasonable projection for him as well. And hopefully they could cobble together a few more WAR from the third OF spot (would help if they didn't play Duda or if Duda hit like he did in 2011 instead of 2012).
Mets got about 4.5 WAR from their middle IF rotation last year (basically Tejada/Quintinilla/Murphy/Cedeno). Reyes was 4.5 WAR last year, with the upside for some more. Tejada had 2.1 WAR last year in 114 games at SS, if you had him at secnd with Murph spelling him I could see closer to 3 WAR over the course of a full season.
So you're probably picking up 3 wins on the IF, maybe another 5-6 in the OF. Still seems like there is a little ways to go. (Though in my scenario I had the Mets spending arounf $150 million; the Phillies and Sox were closer to $170 million so you should theoretically have some more room to go to get another actual ML OF'r. But I thought things might look a little better than this, though it's obviously a very simplistic way of looking at things.
I do believe that Wilpon doesn't want this to happen - he considers the team to be the family legacy and really does want to win. But right now he's being forced to burglarize the team for his financial sins. Who knows how long it will last?
2002
1. Aaron Heilman
2. Alex Escobar
3. Jose Reyes
4. Pat Strange
5. Billy Traber
6. Jae Seo
7. David Wright
8. Grant Roberts
9. Jaime Cerda
10. Neal Musser
2005
1. Lastings Milledge, of
2. Yusmeiro Petit, rhp
3. Gaby Hernandez, rhp
4. Mike Jacobs, c/1b
5. Philip Humber, rhp
6. Carlos Gomez, of
7. Fernando Martinez, of
8. Anderson Hernandez, ss/2b
9. Brian Bannister, rhp
10. Alay Soler, rhp
2008
1. Fernando Martinez, of
2. Deolis Guerra, rhp
3. Carlos Gomez, of
4. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
5. Eddie Kunz, rhp
6. Brant Rustich, rhp
7. Philip Humber, rhp
8. Jon Niese, lhp
9. Nathan Vineyard, lhp
10. Robert Parnell, rhp
The 2008 one is embarrassing. Eddie Kunz at #5 really stands out as ugly. He wouldn't get close to this year's top 10.
Hard to put myself out there and guess, but Cecchinia for Sierra perhaps? Jays could use a position prospect that can play middle infiled. Sierra is non-elite and is now being pushed aside by Toronto but would serve as a useful piece or placeholder for New York. Would New York erupt if Flores was the equalizer or he would be universally considered elite?
I was only barely aware of Flores, which meets my exact definition of non-elite. Plus I sort of figure that the way the rest of the deal stacks up Toronto will get the better of the "non-elite" swap to even it out a bit.
Can't be traded.
My feeling, though I don't follow the minor leaguers really intently, is that Flores won't be able to hack it at second
1. Lastings Milledge, of
2. Yusmeiro Petit, rhp
3. Gaby Hernandez, rhp
4. Mike Jacobs, c/1b
5. Philip Humber, rhp
6. Carlos Gomez, of
7. Fernando Martinez, of
8. Anderson Hernandez, ss/2b
9. Brian Bannister, rhp
10. Alay Soler, rhp
Oh man, the days when Mets fans were smoking crack. Milledge, Petit, Humber, Gomez and FMart on one list.
No idea if it's actually true, but Mike Francesa just said that the final guy the Mets are giving up is Mike Nickeas. He at least fits the "non-elite" part of the description.
Edit: Confirmed. OF Wulimer Becerra to the Mets.
For a guy who was supposed to be non-elite, this sounds like a terrific get. Especially as it apparently cost Mike Nickeas.
Klaw says he's got an idea at the plate and a good swing.
The reports I've seen suggest that he's going to end up in left field, he doesn't throw especially well, he's not likely to retain his speed, and that he's got "projectible" power. Whether that translates to real power remains to be seen, but it sounds very much like the ceiling isn't especially high.
-- MWE
Yeah, I did not realize that at first.
Baseless.
One reason the club isn't as good as you might have expected when you started spending 150m is that 20m and 16m were already in the toilet for Santana and Bay. That 150m was more like 115m. Big difference.
Are 2005 and 2008 at all typical? It's not typical that a team gets a Wright and Reyes out of its top ten, of course, but once they graduated the cupboard was incredibly bare.
I was never high on Milledge, but Kazmir was definitely the real thing.
Mostly healthy, and while most of it was in the minors it was a solid season, and when he was up he showed a little punch at the plate. And still only 23. Not bad, and far from too late to put together a career. At 23 most players haven't reached the majors, and he's already got parts of four seasons in the bigs.
So it was Becerra, after all.
Sickels says,
So, barely 18.
Ah, to be that young.
I'd rather players that young not already be limited to the corners, but if Johnny Damon's arm can spend time in CF, anyone's can.
That definitely seems right, from memory.
The way I look at the 2006-2008 Mets is this: If you use fWAR, over that period the Mets had 3 of the 8 best players in baseball; Wright was 4th, Beltran 5th, and Reyes 8th. No other team had more than 1 player in the top 10, and they made the playoffs in one of those three years and while they came close the other 2 years, they won below 90 games both years.
I'm not sure there is a better way to explain how bad Omar was at filling in the gaps of the roster.
The scouting report on Becerra sounds pretty good-- of course, not a guy you're going to plan the future of the franchise around, but having talented OFs in the system is better than not.
why the hell not? He'll be 24 in February and he's already played in AA and AAA
Umm, no?
He had a real good 2+ weeks in September
His career MLB OPS+ is all the way up to a lofty 74
.314/.367/.507 in AAA looks nice, until you notice that the league hit .278/.345/.430, he was about the 4th best hitter on his own team. 44th in the PCl in OPS,
Not hopeless, but looking more and more like a 4th OF/ starter on a bad team type
I'd give him at least a month in a AAA park that's not on the moon, he's only had 67 games there. That said, I just realized I have no idea where the Mets' AAA team is since they pissed off the Bisons, did they get banished to the PCL?
Oh, heh. Nevermind then, they're in Las Vegas now.
On the whole Den Dekker... didn't regress :-)
and... I really cannot find a Met minor league OF at any level who played better in 2012 than before...
not a one...
Not an OF but Aderlin R was showing signs of life...
and oh, lookie, they have the second coming of Thole already, Camden Maron...
21st in the FSL in OPS at age 23, and I made fun of FMart for being 44th in the PCL at age 23...
Does anyone know anything about Wil Tovar, all I can see is that he's young and seems to have a decent eye...
So the 100 PAs he had with a 38 OPS+ as a 20 year old sits big with you, huh?
a 105 OPS+ fits that definition, for a 23 year old. Now tell us how his solid minor league OBP, long a weakness, is meaningless.
Fucking Mets fans. You guys have to piss all over prospects even after they leave the team and start picking up speed.
Players are capable of a sudden shift, and if Fernando has one while maintaining his extra-base rate per FB, he would be pretty interesting but you could say that about a whole lot of guys...
no,
He's a corner OF whose brightest bright spot (statistically) of the past 3 years was a measly 130 PAs in Houston last year
His walk rate still sucks, his 2012 OBP in AAA was driven by a BABIP spike.
Happy now?
I don't piss over all prospects, just the ones I think others are overrating, don't even get me started about Puello...
picking up speed? His time in AAA, adjusting for park/league does not show any improvement over 2009-2011
his k/bb/PA is remarkably consistent- unfortunately it's been consistently poor
OTOH, he's not obviously regressing like Marte was at the same age, but you really gotta worry about the stagnation
Most Met prospects have NEVER played in any offensive environment as hitter friendly as LV (NCAA not included) -
I mean we were in New Orleans a few years ago- but that is the absolute worst hitter's park in the PCL hands down- so that wasn't much better - from a raw numbers POV, than Norfolk
but Las Vegas?
Guys like Zack Lutz, Eric Campbell and Josh Satin could put up some real nice looking numbers there- it won't really mean anything of course...
The guy to really watch there is Flores of course (if he starts there)- he seems to have this even/good, odd/bad year [pattern going on, 2013 would be a real good time for him to break that pattern
Do you mean Jefry Marte who just got traded? If so he's Oakland's problem now.
I don't like that Marte deal. Cowgill is just filler, someone you should be able to sign as a minor league free agent. Marte is not a great prospect at this point but he was 21 in AA ball last year. Ugh.
==
I don't like them being in an extreme hitter's environment-- it can't be good for the development of either the hitters or the pitchers. I've had this problem following the Jays' system since they relocated. That said, it would be awesome if Flores put up gaudy numbers there.
I sort of missed the story-- how did the Mets end up as the last one standing in AAA musical chairs? Seems like with the population density in the northeast they could find a closer home for their AAA squad. Kick the Nats out of Syracuse, or something.
Puello's the future of the franchise. What's not to like?
Huh? As a group, Mets fans around here are the biggest prospect fanboys we've got. In particular, FMart love was rampant.
no, I was talking about FMart who seems to have stagnated from 2009-2012...
I guess that could also apply to Marte, but Marte's on field performance has never been vaguely interesting-
If FMart improved by 10%- he might actually be an interesting young player- if Marte improved by 10% he'd, well he might be able to help a AA team...
Regarding Cowgill... did you know that league average in the PCL in 2011 was .286/.359/.448?
Did you know that Dan's minor league park multiplier fro Reno in 2011 was 1.13?
You have to take those factors into account when looking at Cowgills' 2011 line in Reno (.354/.430/.554)
basically adjusting for league and park he wasn't quite as good as FMart was in Oklahoma in 2012- and even adjusting for league and park 2011 was an outlier for Cowgill- whereas that's pretty much what FMart does in AAA.
So if someone wants me to say something good about FMart- here goes, he's much much much better than Cowgill
He's a poor man's version of Carlos Gomez (and I still can't believe that CarGom was the centerpiece of the Johann deal- sure Santana's arm ended up falling off, but still...)
yes, Jefry hasn't reached FMart's current age yet
As a Mets fan I've always felt the need to rain on other Met fanboys' parades, since they are usually so irrationally exuberant- I particularly hate when the fanboys get all googly eyed at the speedy tools goof de jure...
Of course I'm not down on all Mets prospects, I was irrationally exuberant towards Milledge and Jacobs when they were prospects, Mike Carp...
I think Puello has Carlos Beltran written all over him. Your turn.
That was a strnge tatoo for him to get.
So much for omitting the " /sarcasm " tag in the future. I did find the past adulation a bit much, but now that he just had, in light of his longstanding weaknesses (durability and getting on base), a season where he was mostly healthy, and where he improved his ability to get on base, it seemed odd to not acknowledge that, and odd to point to 100 terrible ML PAs at an age when most guys are in A ball as though those PAs had any bearing at all on his current status.
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