My twin boys used to have such a blast building that dog-eared house of Gregg Jefferies Rookie Cards…and then flattening it with a poop-encrusted plastic snow shovel.
25 years ago, in the summer of 1987, Gregg Jefferies was the hottest prospect in baseball. He was considered a sure-fire future All Star and an expected mainstay for the New York Mets. Take Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar, combine them, and you have an idea about how much hype Jefferies was receiving. And he deserved it, too; he was a remarkable prospect.
...Handed the second base job in 1989, Jefferies didn’t live up to his press clippings, hitting .258/.314/.392 with 12 homers and 21 steals, with a 39/46 BB/K ratio in 508 at-bats. He took some flak for not being an immediate star and his defense wasn’t impressive, but he did post a positive OPS+ at 106 and WAR at 1.3. His production as a sophomore (.283/.337/.434, WAR 3.0) was better, but after a mediocre junior season (.272/.336/.374, 1.8 WAR) he was shipped off to the Kansas City Royals, where he played one season (.285/.329/.404, WAR 2.5).
In the spring of 1993, the Royals traded him east across I-70 to St. Louis, where he finally had the star-caliber season people were looking for: .342/.408/.485, 5.5 WAR. He remained an effective hitter for the Cardinals and Phillies (signing as a free agent for 1995), but his value sagged as he moved the wrong way on the defensive spectrum, eventually winding up as a first baseman with insufficient power for the position. Worn down by injuries, he ended up retiring in 2000 at the age of 32.
Although Jefferies was a disappointment compared to the hype he received in the minors, he did have a 14-year career in the majors, hitting .289/.344/.421 with a 107 OPS+. His OPS+ was better than league average every year until age 28 when injuries struck, and he had particularly good years in 1993 (.342/.408/.485, 142 OPS+, 5.5 WAR) and 1994 (.325/.391/.489, 130 OPS+, 1.9 WAR in the strike year). He stole 193 bases, was a two-time All Star, and posted a career 21.9 WAR.
He wasn’t a great player, but he had value.
Repoz
Posted: August 15, 2012 at 09:07 AM |
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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 15, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4208627)But I agree with John, had you not had all the hype surrounding his prospect status, he would have been considered a pretty valuable player. Jefferies was one of the first prospects people got excited about it seems in the era where any fan could follow minor league stats pretty regularly in Baseball America or the Sporting News.
EDIT: I forgot how good he was with the Cards. That was a pretty awful trade for the Royals. With Felix Jose and Kevin McReynolds, the Royals had to have had the most apathetic outfield in the history of baseball.
OR IS IT?
I remember that, too. Didn't his dad have him on some kind of Marinovich-like training regimen from a very young age?
Yup - ditto. In fact, I took up the very same training regimen after I read about it.
FWIW, my HS coach -- who was a maven for unusual training exercises (we actually had a series of 'eye exercises' that we spent 20 minutes every practice on, some of which I think we're quite good) -- didn't like it. He thought it built bad habits because it would force you to use your upper arms and shoulders too much at the expense of your wrists and forearms. We did resistance training around our swings with a partner holding the bat, but he'd walk around to be sure wrists were snapping, hips were opening up, etc and insist that players were conducting a 'thorough' swing rather than just playing tug of war with the bat.
He was 21 at the time. You'd think people would be happy with a 21-year-old second baseman with a 106 OPS+.
I always felt that Jefferies' main problem was that he wasn't good enough defensively to handle second base, but the Mets just refused to admit that. The Mets kept shuttling him back and forth between second and third, never giving him a full shot at either position, which had to be enormously frustrating for a guy who wasn't a good fielder to begin with.
I think if they had just stuck him at third, or in left field, and said, "This is where you're playing," his bat would have developed rather than stagnating over the first five years of his career. Note that he exploded on the league at the exact moment he became a full-time first baseman.
The other thing is that the Mets were just horribly dysfunctional in a lot of ways. There was a story that as soon as Jefferies made the big leagues, Kevin Elster took it upon himself to saw all of Jefferies' bats in half. That's hardly conducive to developing talent, if you ask me.
Flicking through the SI piece about him, it sounds like hard work, but without being as pathological as Marinovich's dad was. Jeffries's dad was a baseball coach and PE teacher for a living as well, so obviously he was going to take an interest in a son who was good enough to win a batting title. Jeffries sure seems to have found his place and handled his career better than Marinovich did. His dad sounds more like a Chris Lincecum than whatever Marinovich's psycho father was named (Marv?).
There was a picture in SI showing him standing in a pool holding a bat. Here is the article describing his workout routine:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1067126/1/index.htm
Yeah, you could say he was hyped:
In pulling three, you also underlined the fatal error of collectibles (and late 80s Topps sets in particular): oversupply. As a kid I wondered why the 87-88-89 Topps sets were worth nothing while Fleer and Donruss of the same year had value - eventually I realized there were enough Topps cards out there to wallpaper your house with.
In terms of pulling and selling I used to do the same, especially with error cards and gimmick cards and the like. They never held their value beyond the first few months of the current season. The 89 Upper Deck set was like a treasure trove. My crowning moment (and I still think the greatest card collecting arbitrage moment of the early 90s) was when Topps came out with that gimmicky reprint of the 1953 set including the revisionist history Mantle, which dealers were selling during the initial frenzy at $25 a pop with the Mays at something like $15. The idea that you could pull a $25 card out of the pack was at that time so mind-bogglingly insane that it almost broke my mind - the card companies were flush in the middle of the overprinting era and pulling a stud rookie at that time meant you could sell it for maybe a buck if anyone would even bother to buy it at all. There was no such thing as value out of the pack. I pooled my meager funds and bought boxes (around $45) and sold every Mantle card I could get to dealers for $15 and every Mays for $8 or $9, then bought the stuff I actually wanted with what was left over. It was awesome.
Hi step dad at that! He took the phrase "red-headed step child" to places lesser men never imagined...
My college roommate actually grew up with Marinovich and always said he felt sorry for him.
.282/.322/.395 is OK I suppose (and his play with the Mets is perfectly in line with this) but nothing that screams future superstar (age notwithstanding)
As a side bonus, he spent most of the year at third (which makes sense given that the Mets were negotiating a Hojo + for Dale Murphy deal) which led him to being thrown cold into second base (24 minor league games at 2b) in the majors.
Now there's nothing unusual about converting a minor league SS to second in the majors, but Jefferies was a bad shortstop who was playing there because ... well they hoped he'd improve a lot. A year in the minors at second would probably have helped a great deal. There were plenty of comments about how raw Jefferies looked at second
One other warning sign that almost everybody missed. His walk rate at jackson doesn't look terrible, but it's only 31 unintentional walks in 525 PAs (excluding IBB). Not terrible but a potential issue as he starts to encounter better pitching.
Majurick Machfar? Awesome.
I remember that hype, which led to Jeffries going for $10.50 (out of a total $100) in my rotisserie league. Contrast McGwire going for 50 cents his rookie season a few years before. (My brother still brags about that.) It was a big change in how the rotisserie league worked.
* Also, this was '88 and the IL got hit by some of the drop in offense that the bigs experienced: the IL hit .244/.310/.352. Batting title won by Steve Finley, .314.
I think that was the thing that got people fired up about Jeffries: those 29 games with a .321/.364/.596. I just remember him going buck wild on the bases in his first year with the Cards: 46 steals!
I remember having a set of baseball cards that were basically just childhood photos of both Gregg Jefferies and Ken Griffey Jr. A quick Googling couldn't come up with them. What were they?
I want to meet the guy who looked at Jefferies and saw Mickey Mantle type skills. That's got to be one optimistic guy.
Edit > I wonder how often Chipper Jones was compared to Jefferies? They were both switch hitters, both shortstops unable to actually play shortstop, both high average, good speed, and both joining one of the best teams in the majors. Really similar prospects. Almost identical rookie year OPS+es.
It's hard to walk much when you're hitting .367.
This is the first Chipper Jones - Gregg Jefferies comparison I've ever seen in my life. So while that's just my personal anecdote, I'm willing to wager the answer is, "Not often."
I love Bill James's quip about this - "The Mets would bring in a new second baseman every year, put Jefferies at third, then drop the second baseman halfway through the year. Then they'd put Jefferies back at second, to see if he had learned to play the position while watching from third."
I wonder if that helped or hurt. I remember reading that sprinting in sand (as a similar form of resistance training) hurt sprinters because the slowness of the sand screwed up all their muscular timing for sprinting on real stuff.
Just looking at game logs, Jefferies was moved off 2nd at the end of 1990 (for Herr) and 1991 (for Miller), but not at the beginning of any year.
All of it. All of it, gef....
It's a name that would immediately land on the no-fly list, at least.
Interesting, but it seems unlikely it was Elster. He was closer to a peer of Jefferies than an established vet. Jefferies first full MLB year was 1989 (after he tore it up in 29 games in 1988). 1988 was Elster's rookie season, and he put up a .594 OPS in 149 games. That would hardly suggest the sort of job security that might lead one to saw the prize propect's bats in half.
There's various web pages that blame Darryl Strawberry, Randy Myers, Roger McDowell, and anonymous veteran teammates for the bat sawing.
It wasn't Elster. The first person to mess with Gregg's precious bats was Strawberry in 1989. Gregg gave his bats special treatment and he wanted the equipment manager to give them special treatment as well. Gregg wanted them packed separately from the other bats so they wouldn't get dinged and chipped in transit. Well, one day after a game Strawberry had enough and after Gregg gave his bat to the EM and got on the bus Strawberry grabbed the bat and threw it away. Later in the season it was Roger McDowell who took Gregg's bat and saw it in half and then taped it back together again. Gregg broke his first bat in an at bat and then when he went back to the dugout to get a new bat he grabbed the sawed in half one and it collapsed on him in his hands much to the amusement of the Mets' players watching.
The bat in water thing, or training in water for additional resistance is problematic because in water (hydrodynamic resistance), Force = k * Velocity(squared), k is coeff of hydrodynamic resistance. It is also why trying to transfer dryland training into water sports such as swimming, rowing, is difficult. The type of resistance is different.
Because of this, there is also the mechanical feedback issue. Greater force leads to higher velocity which leads to greater resistance. Then to overcome the greater resistance, you need to elevate force more. The mechanical feedback is different.
Trying to work on sports specific technical movements using some extra resistance, extra resistance that is different, is generally not a good idea, you're taking the chance of messing up your mechanics, especially on something like a baseball swing.
I could be wrong, but I recall reading about the incident more or less contemporaneously in the Village Voice, back when it had an excellent sports section. Yes, Elster wasn't much older than Jefferies, but he was also one of the players most in danger of losing playing time to him. Elster was also a hot prospect himself a year or two before, and may have learned that that's how the Mets clubhouse was supposed to operate.
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