Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Sickels: White Sox Pre-Season Top 20 Prospects in Review

Middle 5: Chris Young, Ray Liotta, Sean Tracey, Jerry Owens, Casey Rogowski. As a group, these guys are better than the prospects rated immediately above them, IMO. Young took a big step forward at Birmingham, improving his ISO, BB rate, and K rate (which is still a tad high, but showing improvement while jumping a level is definitely a plus). Liotta jumped from rookie ball in ‘04 to high class A by the end of the season, and although his K rate dropped when he moved up his other peripherals remained excellent. The other three guys have some pluses, some minuses, but the White Sox should get at least one major league contributor out of those three guys.

This is an odd organization to evaluate. It’s not that they’ve failed, exactly - Crede, Rowand, and Garland have performed decently in the majors, and McCarthy showed a lot of promise in his audition - but that the expectations seemed to have been set higher so that the players *seem* to be disappointments.

Mike Emeigh Posted: November 16, 2005 at 03:05 PM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: minor leagues, white sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: November 16, 2005 at 05:41 PM (#1733940)
It’s not that they’ve failed, exactly - Crede, Rowand, and Garland have performed decently in the majors, and McCarthy showed a lot of promise in his audition - but that the expectations seemed to have been set higher so that the players *seem* to be disappointments.

The White Sox are good at developing solid everyday players, but they're not so good at developing superstars - I think the last "great" player that came out of the White Sox system was Frank Thomas, although we may well look back at Mark Buehrle's career and re-evaluating that statement someday.

Right now Young and McCarthy look to be the best bets on that list. Rogowski has a good chance at a Jeff Liefer-type career (really not that great if you think about it), Owens and Tracey might or might not pan out, and everyone else is too far away to make anything other than a WAG.
   2. VG Posted: November 16, 2005 at 05:53 PM (#1733966)
It’s not that they’ve failed, exactly - Crede, Rowand, and Garland have performed decently in the majors, and McCarthy showed a lot of promise in his audition - but that the expectations seemed to have been set higher so that the players *seem* to be disappointments.

The standard joke among White Sox fans is that there is an inverse relationship between hype and ML performance when it comes to players developed by the Sox.

I hope that the Sox see Owens as enough of a cheaper facsimilie to Podsednik to keep them from extending/re-signing Pods.

Mike, if you are familiar with Robert Valido, what's your opinion of him?
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 16, 2005 at 06:44 PM (#1734066)
I've only seen Valido play once, in Kannapolis in 2004, and to be honest I really don't remember much of anything about him. He had a decent power spike in '05, but that comes with a big, big question mark, since he drew a suspension for a positive steroid test last year as well. I also note that he left the AFL early for "personal reasons". His defense gets good marks. I suppose he'll open in Birmingham next year, and I'll make a point to put him on my watch list.

-- MWE
   4. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: November 16, 2005 at 06:52 PM (#1734085)
The standard joke among White Sox fans is that there is an inverse relationship between hype and ML performance when it comes to players developed by the Sox.
Lets hope it holds true for draft position. Young and Haigwood were 16th rounders, McCarthy was a 17th rounder.

Valido, who's not even on the list, is a very good SS prospect. He's very good defensively. He's not the fastest guy in the world, but he makes the most out of it (see his SB totals) -- He and Young are guys who you hear being talked up about "playing the game right." They take instruction, do all the little things, and have an "air" about them. Or at least that's what I've been told. -- Valido doesn't have a batting eye, but his glove and position allow you to over look that a little bit. I would say the biggest worry with Valido is his stamina. He faded badly in the second half of 2004, and tailed off fairly dramatically again this season. He was also busted for steroids in April. He's a good year at B'ham away from becoming a top prospect in the Sox system. He's almost there already.

Haigwood is another guy to watch. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him on the mound at USCF in August. He's got momentum. -- He missed all of 2003 with a knee injury, and struggled a bit in his full season debut in 2004, but he was just 2 years removed from high school and held his own at Kanny. He really struggled in the first half of '04, but had an incredible last 10 starts or so. He carried that over into '05, pitching well across High-A and AA. His curveball became a very good pitch in '05, almost rivaling Gio's, almost. -- He's going to have a few things holding him back though. 1) He's not regarded as a guy with "good stuff". but look at his K/9. He misses bats. 2) He walks too many batters. 3) in '05 (the only year I can find the data) he was a GB/FB nuetral pitcher. That doesn't bode well for pitching at the cell.
   5. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: November 16, 2005 at 06:53 PM (#1734090)
But how many teams are really good at developing superstars? I think one every 10 years isn't bad at all.
   6. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: November 16, 2005 at 06:58 PM (#1734102)
I should add, the Sox system is stocked with lefties. Gonzalez, Liotta, and Haigwood all had good '05 campaigns. Lumsden is supposed to have the best arm of the bunch, though I doubt that ever amounts to anything. -- Of the three healthy ones, I'd be most inclided to trade Haigwood this off-season. He was the lone man in the bunch to reach AA, where he benifited from the huge park to post a sub-2 ERA, probably inflating his value a little in the process. You might be able to talk an opposing GM down from Gio to Haigwood.
   7. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:07 PM (#1734120)
But how many teams are really good at developing superstars? I think one every 10 years isn't bad at all.

The Sox had an incredible run in the late 80's. For 4 consecutive years starting in 1987, their first round picks were Jack McDowell, Robin Ventura, Frank Thomas, and Alex Fernandez.
   8. adamnvillani Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:14 PM (#1734138)
Dude... they've got a guy named Ray Liotta! That's awesome.
   9. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:16 PM (#1734144)
they've got a guy named Ray Liotta!

The two are sort of related, actually - I believe the actor was adopted by a distant cousin of the pitcher.
   10. MM1f Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:21 PM (#1734152)
" Lumsden is supposed to have the best arm of the bunch, though I doubt that ever amounts to anything. "

Wow, giving up on a guy after just one pro year?
   11. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:25 PM (#1734161)
The standard joke among White Sox fans is that there is an inverse relationship between hype and ML performance when it comes to players developed by the Sox.

I heard more about Corwin Malone than Buehrle.
   12. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:29 PM (#1734173)
I heard more about Corwin Malone than Buehrle.

And we all heard more about Joe Borchard than Aaron Rowand.

The last hyped prospect that lived up to expectations was probably Ray Durham.
   13. Chris Pummer Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:33 PM (#1734183)
Yea. How much did we hear about Brian Simmons and McKay Christiansen? Then we finally get Aaron Rowand after the Sox reluctantly hand him a ML job.
   14. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:41 PM (#1734203)
Rogowski has a good chance at a Jeff Liefer-type career (really not that great if you think about it)
Missed this comment the first time. -- I think Rogo profiles more as a Ross Gload type. Not that it's much different than Liefer really. I just think that Rogo will prove to be able to handle the bat at the big leagues, but he doesn't have enough power to warrant the corner infield/DH position. -- He does have a good eye, and is HUGE guy (former Michigan HS state wrestling champ), so he could still develop some power.
   15. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: November 16, 2005 at 07:44 PM (#1734209)
How much did we hear about Brian Simmons and McKay Christiansen?

Christiansen was just a guy who could run fast, but Simmons had potential. He was consistently putting up OBP's in the .360-.370 range in the minors, and had power. IIRC, he was also a decent outfield glove.

Just when he was ready to step in at the big-league level (2000), he suffered a season-ending injury during spring training (I think he broke his leg), and he was never the same after that.
   16. Chris Pummer Posted: November 16, 2005 at 08:08 PM (#1734260)
Simmons' 2002 at Fresno looked a lot like his other minor league seasons. While the broken leg no doubt cost him an opportunity, I don't think it's what kept him from being a good major leaguer.
   17. bhoov Posted: November 16, 2005 at 08:14 PM (#1734277)
The Sox have really gotten incredible production from pitchers drafted in very late rounds. Buerhle (38th round)and McCarthy (17th round). Haigwood (16th round) may wind up being the latest example of that. To develop a #1 and a #3 (figure McCarthy will be at leat this) starter from 38th and 17th round picks is either really good scouting or incredible luck (probably a combination of both).
   18. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: November 16, 2005 at 08:47 PM (#1734350)
McCarthy and Buehrle were both draft and follows. They both got signing bonuses like top 5 round picks just before the draft in the year following their draft year. (I think between the two of them they lost something like a combined 3 games in JuCo) That was a combination of good scouting and smart use of resources.
   19. buda73 Posted: November 16, 2005 at 08:50 PM (#1734354)
I think Magglio Ordonez come close to the "superstar" category, at least before the injury. Carlos Lee is another good recent Sox player produced by the farm system.
   20. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: November 16, 2005 at 08:54 PM (#1734361)
And to think, rumor has it that McCarthy was this close to being a PTBNL in an Ordonez-for-Nomar deal.
   21. Anthony Giacalone Posted: November 16, 2005 at 09:20 PM (#1734412)
Ordonez was another unhyped prospect when he came up.

The scouts that I've talked to all love Valido's defense, although they tend to be very split on his offensive abilities.

I love Casey Rogowski and have followed him closely since his days as a 3B prospect coming out of Detroit. That said, he now only has the potential to be a role-player type in the majors. His power hasn't been there thus far, but may develop a little in his late-20s and early-30s. His eye is good, but for a first baseman he just doesn't produce enough to be a regular first baseman. He could be a David McCarty type, I suppose. I can't see the comparision to Gload. Gload has been excellent at every level but wasn't allowed the MLB time to make the jump.

Gload (age, level, OPS)
22 loA 859
23 hiA 784
24 AA 824
24 AAA 1392
25 AAA 841
26 AAA 852
27 AAA 873
29 AAA 1073

Rogoswki (age, level, OPS)
18 Rk 755
19 loA 635
20 loA 816
21 hiA 690
22 hiA 721
23 hiA 872
24 AA 818

I'm not at all sold on Owens yet. And I think that we've written off Spidale too quickly, who was bumped up to Charlotte this season but then left to rot on the bench while Anderson, Brown and Borchard played. Owens and Spidale are basically the same player in my book.

I don't understand the fascination with Tracey at all. He looks to me to be like one of a dozen minor league pitching "prospects" that this orgainzation has done a good job of trading for something of value. If he turns out better than Matt Guerrier, I'll be shocked. On the other hand, I am very high on Dan Haigwood, although we won't know much about hit until another go around at Birmingham this season.

Francisco Hernandez started the season at Kannapolis and bombed horribly before being sent back down where he righted himself. I'm sure that Sickels knows that but it should still be mentioned. Hopefully he'll rocket through Kannapolis this year and perform well at Winston-Salem.

Micah Schnurstein is guy people should keep an eye on. Scouts loved him after his first year. He improved a great deal after moving up to HiA this year and he's still just 21. His glove is solid but unspectacular. Obviously, he would lose nearly all his value if he were moved leftward on the defensive spectrum.

My favorite White Sox minor leaguer is Ricardo Nanita. I really believe that he has major league ability and will eventually hit well in the bigs. I know that he is old and didn't hit when they tried to move him to HiA last year. But he has a tremendous batting eye and the ball just jumps off his bat. Someone will get a nice hitter for several years when Nanita is 28-31 years old, I think.
   22. jwb Posted: November 16, 2005 at 10:43 PM (#1734611)
Wow! Nanita has rocked everywhere he has played except for 225 PA in Winston-Salem in 2004. He played in the Pioneer League in 2003 and then at Florida International in 2004. How did that happen? No agent, no paycheck, no contract?
   23. VG Posted: November 16, 2005 at 10:55 PM (#1734635)
Anthony, does Nanita play outfield or first base?
   24. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:04 PM (#1734653)
He played in the Pioneer League in 2003 and then at Florida International in 2004. How did that happen?

It didn't. It's a mistake on Baseball Cube.

-- MWE
   25. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:06 PM (#1734658)
Anthony, does Nanita play outfield or first base?

I'm not Anthony, but I can answer this :) Nanita's an outfielder. CF, to be precise.

-- MWE
   26. VG Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:07 PM (#1734662)
Thanks, Mike. Nanita looks like an interesting bat if he can handle center.
   27. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:16 PM (#1734693)
Red flag warnings on Nanita:

1. He's 24 and hasn't sniffed AA yet.
2. His good season at W-S was in his second go-round in the league.

-- MWE
   28. Anthony Giacalone Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1734759)
I agree about the caveats on Nanita, Mike. I'm not suggesting that he's a going to be any sort of immediate contributor or superstar-level contributor at any time. I just like him. You know, we all need to have these Ken Phelps kind of guys that we like. I may have just caught him on a good day but he sure looked good to me.

The day that I saw him he played left field (I believe) but that doesn't mean much since they had Chris Young in center, but he doesn't look like a centerfielder.

Mike (or Vince or anyone else), do you have any information about the Sox decision making process in turning Tom Brice into a pitcher. I know that they think that they are loaded in the outfield. Was the decision simply that there was a logjam in the OF at the low levels and that, therefore, Brice would better serve the team as a pitcher?
   29. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:27 AM (#1735033)
1. He's 24 and hasn't sniffed AA yet.

When is the change-over for "age-X season"? He has a June birthday so he's probably young for his age-season, if that's any consolation.
   30. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:29 AM (#1735036)
Since this is the latest Sox thread that I've seen, I hope all you Sox fans know about this. Comcast will be replaying all 11 playoff games, plus a couple of other things in the next two months. They have a schedule at the link I provided.

I'm glad they're doing this -- I was afraid they'd lose if I tried to tape any of the playoff games. It'll be fun on Christmas Eve watching the Bears, followed by Jon Garland's complete game in the ALCS.
   31. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:17 AM (#1735072)
When is the change-over for "age-X season"?

I usually use July 1 for "age-season".

-- MWE
   32. MM1f Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:25 AM (#1735228)
"It'll be fun on Christmas Eve watching the Bears, followed by Jon Garland's complete game in the ALCS. "

See I think its fun watching Kyle Orton throw picks too but i'm not a Bears fan
   33. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 02:23 PM (#1736888)
See I think its fun watching Kyle Orton throw picks too but i'm not a Bears fan

If you like fun QB'ing, you should've seen this past Sunday's game at Soldier Field. Poor Cody Pickett (Pickett, what a name for a QB) had no idea where any pass was going when it left his hand. Orton wasn't much better, but Pickett really had a tough day.
   34. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: November 19, 2005 at 04:19 AM (#1738180)
I don't know where else to put this, but after today, the White Sox 40-man roster is as follows:

Pitchers (20)
J. Adkins (844 OPS against at AAA)
J. Bajenaru (548 OPS against at AAA)
M. Buehrle
J. Contreras
N. Cotts
F. Diaz (845 OPS against at AAA)
F. Garcia
J. Garland
C. Haeger (701 OPS against at AA)
D. Haigwood (484 OPS against at AA)
D. Hermanson
O. Hernandez
B. Jenks
D. Marte
B. McCarthy
A. Munoz (818 OPS against at AAA)
C. Politte
P. Reynoso (823 OPS against at AA)
S. Tracey (749 OPS against at AA)
L. Vizcaino

Catchers (3)
A. Pierzynski
C. Stewart (801 OPS at AA)
C. Widger

Infielders (8)
J. Crede
R. Gload (1073 OPS at AAA)
W. Harris
T. Iguchi
P. Lopez (601 OPS at AA, 518 OPS at AAA)
P. Ozuna
C. Rogowski (818 OPS at AA)
J. Uribe

Outfielders (8)
B. Anderson (829 OPS at AAA)
J. Borchard (815 OPS at AAA)
J. Dye
J. Owens (799 OPS at AA)
T. Perez (sigh)
S. Podsednik
A. Rowand
C. Young (922 OPS at AA)

Any reason why they would be at 39 and not 40?
   35. Anthony Giacalone Posted: November 20, 2005 at 01:23 AM (#1738909)
They might be thinking about getting a Rule 5 guy or grabbing a non-tendered player.
   36. Russ Posted: November 20, 2005 at 04:33 AM (#1739065)

Poor Cody Pickett (Pickett, what a name for a QB) had no idea where any pass was going when it left his hand. Orton wasn't much better, but Pickett really had a tough day.


Nice to see that not much has changed from when Cody was at UW.
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: November 20, 2005 at 06:55 PM (#1739602)
I hope for White Sox fans' sake that "Estenvison Ramirez" was not one of the top ones - he just got busted in NJ for some serious stuff along with an Astros prospect named Marte, according to this story.

http://northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2MDYmZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTY4MjAwMDYmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkz


I'm not exactly up on White Sox prospects, though...
   38. Anthony Giacalone Posted: November 21, 2005 at 05:14 AM (#1740194)
Howie, The White Sox do not have any one named Ramirez in their entire farm system. And there is no Estenvision Ramirez anywhere in baseball. This is a very weird mistake by the paper.
   39. VG Posted: November 21, 2005 at 02:46 PM (#1740417)
This is a very weird mistake by the paper.

More likely, the police misidentified him (his name, his occupation or both), and the paper didn't think/bother to check out whether it was correct.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
aleskel
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Newsblog2014 WORLD SERIES GAME 2 OMNICHATTER
(27 - 7:17pm, Oct 22)
Last: zonk

NewsblogOT: Politics, October 2014: Sunshine, Baseball, and Etch A Sketch: How Politicians Use Analogies
(3136 - 7:15pm, Oct 22)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogHow Wall Street Strangled the Life out of Sabermetrics | VICE Sports
(4 - 7:14pm, Oct 22)
Last: Belfry Bob

NewsblogSielski: A friend fights for ex-Phillie Dick Allen's Hall of Fame induction
(172 - 7:11pm, Oct 22)
Last: alilisd

NewsblogRoyals are not the future of baseball | FOX Sports
(28 - 7:11pm, Oct 22)
Last: Belfry Bob

NewsblogDealing or dueling – what’s a manager to do? | MGL on Baseball
(39 - 7:10pm, Oct 22)
Last: bobm

NewsblogStatcast: Posey out at the plate
(9 - 7:05pm, Oct 22)
Last: Merton Muffley

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(873 - 7:02pm, Oct 22)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogHunter Pence responds to Royals fan signs with monster Game 1 | MLB.com
(53 - 6:57pm, Oct 22)
Last: JAHV

NewsblogJerome Williams re-signs with Phils
(6 - 6:36pm, Oct 22)
Last: Brian White

NewsblogJay set for surgery — and for CF in 2015 : Sports
(1 - 6:32pm, Oct 22)
Last: Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling

NewsblogHitting coaches blamed for lack of offense - Sports - The Boston Globe
(18 - 5:40pm, Oct 22)
Last: Bhaakon

NewsblogBaseball's hardest throwing bullpen - Beyond the Box Score
(11 - 5:31pm, Oct 22)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - October 2014
(339 - 5:16pm, Oct 22)
Last: Merton Muffley

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-22-2014
(13 - 4:49pm, Oct 22)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.2439 seconds
52 querie(s) executed