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Monday, June 09, 2008

SI.com: Heyman: Phils following last year’s Phila. story with even better sequel

Could the curse finally be over?  Could this be the year that the Phillies win their second World Series championship in 135 years, bringing them into a tie with the historically far more dominant Cubs?

Jon Heyman gives us an inconsistent list of reasons why this could be the year.

4. Manager Charlie Manuel. I have doubted this guy a hundred times before, and referred to him as a “bumpkin’’ at least 10. But I take it all back. “He’s a very intelligent baseball person, and a very consistent manager,’’ veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer said. And there’s no question this team responds to him. They almost always play hard. “That’s how they want to play. That’s who they are,’’ Manuel said. But when they stray, as Rollins did recently in failing to run out a popup, Manuel takes care of it. He immediately benched Rollins, and Rollins responded by saying Manuel was absolutely right to do it, which shows you what kind of guy he is, as well.

5. General manager Pat Gillick. He’s still one of the best, and if the Phils need anything at the trade deadline, he’s as likely to get it as any GM in the business.

6. Closer Brad Lidge. Great pickup by Gillick. He surrendered almost nothing—spare outfielder Michael Bourn, middle reliever Geoff Geary and minor leaguer Michael Costanzo went to Houston for Lidge and infielder Eric Bruntlett—and improved the bullpen and rotation with one bold move. Rollins sums up Lidge in one word: “Resurrection.’’ Drama aside, he’s 17-for-17 in saves with an 0.96 ERA. And one NL scout said, “They had the hitting. They just need someone to close out the games ... He’s a lot closer to the 2004 Brad Lidge than the 2006 Brad Lidge.’‘

7. Toughness. Last year the Phils overcame the losses of Utley and Tom Gordon. This year their two table setters, Rollins and Shane Victorino, went down at the same time. And it didn’t faze these Phils. They held their ground and were 20-16 when Rollins returned on May 9. Since then they’re 19-10.

The second page of the article consists of random notes including one which should terrify all Rangers fans, if any remain.

Crispix Attacks Posted: June 09, 2008 at 10:03 PM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, phillies, rangers

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   1. Jimmy P Posted: June 09, 2008 at 11:26 PM (#2813358)
The first-place White Sox seem to have reacted well to manager Ozzie Guillen's latest outburst, winning six straight.

No, really? Ozzie may actually know what he's doing when he goes on these tirades?

Pirates president Frank Coonelly might look hypocritical if he goes outside the slot system that he designed and advocated for years

He would be the first MLB employee to ever be a hypocrite. Thank God the media is there to alert us to hypocrites.

Texas' Sidney Ponson was cut due to "disrespectful'' actions to teammates.

Eating the entire post-game spread is not looked at fondly.
   2. Crispix Attacks Posted: June 09, 2008 at 11:34 PM (#2813366)
Whoa, the thread was hijacked three times in the very first post. I am in awe.
   3. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: June 09, 2008 at 11:37 PM (#2813371)
Philly looks like a very good team, but they also have had not any injury to their pitching staff so far. If that continues, they will waltz away with the division.
That said, the series at the ted was heart breaking. Braves should have won game 1. And were in the other 2 games till late.
It seemed like Frenchy was coming up with 2 or 3 men on base everytime and hit into a GIDP. An Andruw circa 2007 worthy performance.
   4. Rodder Posted: June 09, 2008 at 11:43 PM (#2813376)
The Phils will be interesting to watch the next several weeks. With the Atlanta series, they began a stretch of 34 out of 43 games against teams who currently are at .500 or have winning records. The other 9 games are against the Mets (2 games under .500) and the Rangers (1 game under .500). 24 of the 43 games are on the road.
   5. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: June 10, 2008 at 12:05 AM (#2813394)
The Phils have gotten by with 4 starting pitchers who have ERA+ of 95 or less because their bullpen has been outstanding. I don't think their rotation is good enough to run away and hide from the rest of the NL East but they have built themselves quite a big lead over the Mets and Braves. The Braves have problems of their own in the rotation and the Mets aren't looking too good overall. I think one of the Mets or Braves will make a run at the Phils but ultimately fall short.
   6. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: June 10, 2008 at 12:45 AM (#2813414)
I don't have the exact date or record at the time, but a few weeks ago Charlie was talking about how he was telling the team that he'd like to see how they'd react if they had a solid in the division. He commented that he thought that they would continue to play hard and he didn't see why they couldn't keep that lead. I didn't think much of it at the time, but it seems like he was setting a target for the team -- in a very, very positive way. I'm starting to think that Charlie is smarter than 10 Bizarro Lasordas.
   7. Crashburn Alley Posted: June 10, 2008 at 02:17 AM (#2813468)
I'm starting to think that Charlie is smarter than 10 Bizarro Lasordas.


He really is. He gets pigeonholed because of his drawl and stuttering.
   8. Padraic Posted: June 10, 2008 at 10:03 AM (#2813589)
Even though the Pythag would say otherwise, I think the Phillies are playing over their heads right now. Russlan is right; the bullpen is going to come back to earth and it's hard to see 4/5 of the rotation improving over what they have done so far. Oh, and they might not be able to go 162 games with the same 12 pitchers they have used so far!

The good news is that even if they have been lucky, those wins are already on the books. Even if they return to their "true" talent level, which is closer to a .530 win %, they still finish with around 90 wins. But a natural regression coupled with an injury here or there could be trouble.
   9. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: June 10, 2008 at 12:39 PM (#2813620)
It doesn't count as a hijack if the article is addressed. Is it our fault if Heyman jumps around?

Also, I thought the Texas part was actually the opposite of terrifying. Basically, they're verbally disowning Ryan's be-a-man theories.
   10. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: June 10, 2008 at 12:49 PM (#2813632)
The Phils have been winning with a stunning bullpen performance but a bullpen of Lidge, Gordon, Romero, Chad Durbin and Madson is a very good bullpen. Two of their key performers have been pretty crappy so far in Myers and Howard. Utley's been out of his head. Yeah, they are not a .600 club but I think I underestimated them and their true value is probably > .530. I would certainly take the over on .530 the rest of the way.
In an odd way, having 4 mediocre starters means that the pain of an injury to the starting staff will be minimized. Of course if Hamels goes down, that's a different story.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 10, 2008 at 01:02 PM (#2813647)
"Pirates president Frank Coonelly might look hypocritical if he goes outside the slot system that he designed and advocated for years"

If you worked as an obstetrician, and then you got drafted into the army, are you a hypocrite? You had a job where you used to do one thing, and then you took a different job that called for you to do something totally different! Shock! Horror!

Coonelly is supposed to work to advance the interests of his employers, and different employers have different interests. Who would've thunk it?
   12. andrewberg Posted: June 10, 2008 at 01:07 PM (#2813652)
Sure, the Philly bullpen is a little over its head, but everyone is very willing to talk about how much the Rays' improved defense has contributed to their pitching staff's turnaround, so I think the Phillies should get some credit for that, as well. Utley has looked better than ever defensively. Victorino covers as much ground as Rowand in CF because he has better wheels to make up for the deficit in reaction time. Burrell seems to be playing much harder in his contract year. Jenkins is a stud in RF. Werth is a stud when he plays in the OF. And even if Abraham Nunez was good at 3B, using Feliz there all year makes Rollins more comfortable and prevents having to use Dobbs or Helms from last year.
   13. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: June 10, 2008 at 01:08 PM (#2813653)
General manager Pat Gillick. He’s still one of the best, and if the Phils need anything at the trade deadline, he’s as likely to get it as any GM in the business.

Stand Pat Gillick?

Snark aside, do the Phils have pieces to make a killer deadline deal? Those Bedard rumors are swirling...
   14. andrewberg Posted: June 10, 2008 at 01:18 PM (#2813660)
I doubt they have the pieces to get Bedard, but they have done a pretty good job picking out the right pitchers to play in their park on the cheap. Romero, Moyer, and Lohse were all success stories to some degree, and none cost a great deal in return.
   15. Padraic Posted: June 10, 2008 at 02:39 PM (#2813734)
The Phils have been winning with a stunning bullpen performance but a bullpen of Lidge, Gordon, Romero, Chad Durbin and Madson is a very good bullpen.

You are right that it is a good bullpen, but I think Lidge (451), Romero (274), Durbin (260) and Seanez (174) are all all due for a drop in their respective ERA+.

You're also probably right that the true talent of this team, if healthy, is better than a .530 win %. I think i was factoring in injuries into the equation, in which case, I sorta double counted the possibility of injuries in my last sentence from post #8.

I would amend it to say the Phils would have to see a regression of some players (Lidge, Utley, Burrell, Coste, Eaton, Kendrick), no improvement by others (Myers, Howard, Jenkins) AND injuries (anyone!) to fall below 88-90 victories at this point.

do the Phils have pieces to make a killer deadline deal? Those Bedard rumors are swirling


Agree with #14. The Phils cannot offer a position player as good as Adam Jones and none of their pitching prospects project to be more than middle of the rotation. The Mariners would have to be desperate to dump Bedard and have no other interested teams. If a deal was made, I would think it would be more of the Paul Byrd/Aaron Cook variety.
   16. JJ1986 Posted: June 10, 2008 at 02:47 PM (#2813738)
If they're going to make a deal this year, the best trading chip the Phillies have might be Brett Myers. He's not really helping them at all, but he's still in the prime of his career and has a good history of success as recently as last year. He's not enough to get Bedard, but maybe they could work a three way deal to get prospects from somewhere else (Oakland? Dodgers?) and then include one or two other players for Erik.
   17. Padraic Posted: June 10, 2008 at 02:59 PM (#2813747)
If they're going to make a deal this year, the best trading chip the Phillies have might be Brett Myers.

I've heard this mentioned before, but it doesn't make sense when the only part of the team that needs to be upgraded is starting pitching. The team needs someone after Hamels and Myers in the case (likelyhood) of Moyer, Eaton or Kendrick breaking down.

Add to that that Myers is leverage or insurance against Lidge leaving at the end of the year (by returning him to closer), and it doesn't add up. Why trade a fairly cheap option when he is at the nadir of his value? I guess if someone wants to offer you a great deal based on the 2005/06 Myers, I would take it, but otherwise, it doesn't make sense.
   18. Crispix Attacks Posted: June 10, 2008 at 03:23 PM (#2813769)
I thought someone would point out Heyman's effusive praise of the Lidge trade, which I thought was ridiculous.

"He surrendered almost nothing—spare outfielder Michael Bourn, middle reliever Geoff Geary and minor leaguer Michael Costanzo went to Houston for Lidge and infielder Eric Bruntlett—and improved the bullpen and rotation with one bold move"

"almost nothing" meaning five years of Bourn, and six years of Costanzo if he ever reaches the majors. For not "Lidge", but specifically one year of Lidge. You need to take these things into account, Heyman.
   19. Bobby Bonilla's Annuity (Matt) Posted: June 10, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2813782)
Well, Golson is finally starting to get it, but I think they have him penciled in as the starting centerfielder in '09.
   20. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: June 10, 2008 at 03:38 PM (#2813784)
Five years of Bourn may very well equal "almost nothing". His BB rate is down, too. Any Astro fans here to comment on whether pitchers are just overpowering him?
But your point about 1 year of Lidge (plus draft pick, as I can't believe that they wouldn't offer Lidge arbitration) must be considered in evaluating this trade.
   21. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: June 10, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#2813794)
Well, Golson is finally starting to get it, but I think they have him penciled in as the starting centerfielder in '09.
Matt, I'm curious why you say that. His K/BB ratio is 74/13 in 257 PAs in AA, as a 22-yo. He's still very iffy.
   22. Padraic Posted: June 10, 2008 at 04:25 PM (#2813813)
Matt, I'm curious why you say that.

I guess it's relative for some people. If "it" is defined as "an outside shot to become a real major league player," then yes, Golson is starting to get it.

One hope for Golson is that power develops late, and that his k/bb rate may change if he can become a legit power threat and pitchers become more careful. A lot of times, k/bb rate is the result of being a good hitter rather than the cause.
   23. Padraic Posted: June 10, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#2813818)
I thought someone would point out Heyman's effusive praise of the Lidge trade, which I thought was ridiculous.

I think Heyman is only talking about the importance of the trade for this year. That would explain why he refers to Bourn as a spare outfielder (which he would have been for the Phillies). For this year, the Phils are much better off with Lidge than Costanzo, Bourn, and Geary, and since the point of his article was about how good this year's team can be, then I think you can cut him some slack.
   24. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: June 10, 2008 at 04:33 PM (#2813826)
Curious, Golson's OPSes with nobody on, runner on first and runner(s) in scoring position are between .783 and .786 this year. Consistency, he has that going for him. :)

#22, call me dubious then. My son is taking me to Reading for early Father's Day on Friday, I'll certainly be watching GG carefully.
   25. Jimmy P Posted: June 10, 2008 at 04:40 PM (#2813837)
I think Heyman is only talking about the importance of the trade for this year.

Sometimes people lose track of this. Was the Lidge trade good? Well, this year it sure has been. Bourne's proving all the scouting reports that he was not a starting OF correct. And, Constanzo may never reach the majors, he's not doing anything great in AAA this year. So, if you can get a good to great bullpen arm for a 4th OF and a fringe prospect, don't you have to make that deal? Especially if the contract of said bullpen arm is only for one more year?

The goal is to win now. Keeping these "prospects" wasn't going to help the Phillies now.
   26. Crispix Attacks Posted: June 10, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2813950)
Speaking of Bourn, I noticed about three weeks ago that he had significantly more stolen bases than RBIs, and more steals than runs scored as well. Which is unusual for a full-time player.

Let's see...he now has...24 stolen bases, and 11 RBIs this season. Holy crap.

Also 24 runs scored.

I wonder how often a player has TWICE as many steals as RBIs. The first player I guessed, Luis Castillo, did so once. In fact, his 2000 season is one of the strangest I've ever seen. You'd expect a guy like Luis Castillo to have more runs scored than RBIs, but a ratio of 101 to 17 is something special.
   27. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: June 10, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2813983)
I wonder how often a player has TWICE as many steals as RBIs.

Quick checks: Rickey! and Omar Moreno did it twice, Brock and Rock did it once, Vince Coleman did it five times in full seasons and managed it as a career achievement to boot.

SQL-savvy folks could provide a more complete list.
   28. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 10, 2008 at 07:17 PM (#2814007)
As of right now, I have Golson's 2009 projection as 260/293/397.
   29. Cabbage Posted: June 10, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2814030)
As of right now, I have Gholtson's 2009 projection as 260/293/397.

I've got him down for 4 sacks and a calf injury.

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