Jon Heyman gives us an inconsistent list of reasons why this could be the year.
4. Manager Charlie Manuel. I have doubted this guy a hundred times before, and referred to him as a “bumpkin’’ at least 10. But I take it all back. “He’s a very intelligent baseball person, and a very consistent manager,’’ veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer said. And there’s no question this team responds to him. They almost always play hard. “That’s how they want to play. That’s who they are,’’ Manuel said. But when they stray, as Rollins did recently in failing to run out a popup, Manuel takes care of it. He immediately benched Rollins, and Rollins responded by saying Manuel was absolutely right to do it, which shows you what kind of guy he is, as well.
5. General manager Pat Gillick. He’s still one of the best, and if the Phils need anything at the trade deadline, he’s as likely to get it as any GM in the business.
6. Closer Brad Lidge. Great pickup by Gillick. He surrendered almost nothing—spare outfielder Michael Bourn, middle reliever Geoff Geary and minor leaguer Michael Costanzo went to Houston for Lidge and infielder Eric Bruntlett—and improved the bullpen and rotation with one bold move. Rollins sums up Lidge in one word: “Resurrection.’’ Drama aside, he’s 17-for-17 in saves with an 0.96 ERA. And one NL scout said, “They had the hitting. They just need someone to close out the games ... He’s a lot closer to the 2004 Brad Lidge than the 2006 Brad Lidge.’‘
7. Toughness. Last year the Phils overcame the losses of Utley and Tom Gordon. This year their two table setters, Rollins and Shane Victorino, went down at the same time. And it didn’t faze these Phils. They held their ground and were 20-16 when Rollins returned on May 9. Since then they’re 19-10.
The second page of the article consists of random notes including one which should terrify all Rangers fans, if any remain.
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1. Jimmy P Posted: June 09, 2008 at 11:26 PM (#2813358)No, really? Ozzie may actually know what he's doing when he goes on these tirades?
Pirates president Frank Coonelly might look hypocritical if he goes outside the slot system that he designed and advocated for years
He would be the first MLB employee to ever be a hypocrite. Thank God the media is there to alert us to hypocrites.
Texas' Sidney Ponson was cut due to "disrespectful'' actions to teammates.
Eating the entire post-game spread is not looked at fondly.
That said, the series at the ted was heart breaking. Braves should have won game 1. And were in the other 2 games till late.
It seemed like Frenchy was coming up with 2 or 3 men on base everytime and hit into a GIDP. An Andruw circa 2007 worthy performance.
He really is. He gets pigeonholed because of his drawl and stuttering.
The good news is that even if they have been lucky, those wins are already on the books. Even if they return to their "true" talent level, which is closer to a .530 win %, they still finish with around 90 wins. But a natural regression coupled with an injury here or there could be trouble.
Also, I thought the Texas part was actually the opposite of terrifying. Basically, they're verbally disowning Ryan's be-a-man theories.
In an odd way, having 4 mediocre starters means that the pain of an injury to the starting staff will be minimized. Of course if Hamels goes down, that's a different story.
If you worked as an obstetrician, and then you got drafted into the army, are you a hypocrite? You had a job where you used to do one thing, and then you took a different job that called for you to do something totally different! Shock! Horror!
Coonelly is supposed to work to advance the interests of his employers, and different employers have different interests. Who would've thunk it?
Stand Pat Gillick?
Snark aside, do the Phils have pieces to make a killer deadline deal? Those Bedard rumors are swirling...
You are right that it is a good bullpen, but I think Lidge (451), Romero (274), Durbin (260) and Seanez (174) are all all due for a drop in their respective ERA+.
You're also probably right that the true talent of this team, if healthy, is better than a .530 win %. I think i was factoring in injuries into the equation, in which case, I sorta double counted the possibility of injuries in my last sentence from post #8.
I would amend it to say the Phils would have to see a regression of some players (Lidge, Utley, Burrell, Coste, Eaton, Kendrick), no improvement by others (Myers, Howard, Jenkins) AND injuries (anyone!) to fall below 88-90 victories at this point.
Agree with #14. The Phils cannot offer a position player as good as Adam Jones and none of their pitching prospects project to be more than middle of the rotation. The Mariners would have to be desperate to dump Bedard and have no other interested teams. If a deal was made, I would think it would be more of the Paul Byrd/Aaron Cook variety.
I've heard this mentioned before, but it doesn't make sense when the only part of the team that needs to be upgraded is starting pitching. The team needs someone after Hamels and Myers in the case (likelyhood) of Moyer, Eaton or Kendrick breaking down.
Add to that that Myers is leverage or insurance against Lidge leaving at the end of the year (by returning him to closer), and it doesn't add up. Why trade a fairly cheap option when he is at the nadir of his value? I guess if someone wants to offer you a great deal based on the 2005/06 Myers, I would take it, but otherwise, it doesn't make sense.
"He surrendered almost nothing—spare outfielder Michael Bourn, middle reliever Geoff Geary and minor leaguer Michael Costanzo went to Houston for Lidge and infielder Eric Bruntlett—and improved the bullpen and rotation with one bold move"
"almost nothing" meaning five years of Bourn, and six years of Costanzo if he ever reaches the majors. For not "Lidge", but specifically one year of Lidge. You need to take these things into account, Heyman.
But your point about 1 year of Lidge (plus draft pick, as I can't believe that they wouldn't offer Lidge arbitration) must be considered in evaluating this trade.
Matt, I'm curious why you say that. His K/BB ratio is 74/13 in 257 PAs in AA, as a 22-yo. He's still very iffy.
I guess it's relative for some people. If "it" is defined as "an outside shot to become a real major league player," then yes, Golson is starting to get it.
One hope for Golson is that power develops late, and that his k/bb rate may change if he can become a legit power threat and pitchers become more careful. A lot of times, k/bb rate is the result of being a good hitter rather than the cause.
I think Heyman is only talking about the importance of the trade for this year. That would explain why he refers to Bourn as a spare outfielder (which he would have been for the Phillies). For this year, the Phils are much better off with Lidge than Costanzo, Bourn, and Geary, and since the point of his article was about how good this year's team can be, then I think you can cut him some slack.
#22, call me dubious then. My son is taking me to Reading for early Father's Day on Friday, I'll certainly be watching GG carefully.
Sometimes people lose track of this. Was the Lidge trade good? Well, this year it sure has been. Bourne's proving all the scouting reports that he was not a starting OF correct. And, Constanzo may never reach the majors, he's not doing anything great in AAA this year. So, if you can get a good to great bullpen arm for a 4th OF and a fringe prospect, don't you have to make that deal? Especially if the contract of said bullpen arm is only for one more year?
The goal is to win now. Keeping these "prospects" wasn't going to help the Phillies now.
Let's see...he now has...24 stolen bases, and 11 RBIs this season. Holy crap.
Also 24 runs scored.
I wonder how often a player has TWICE as many steals as RBIs. The first player I guessed, Luis Castillo, did so once. In fact, his 2000 season is one of the strangest I've ever seen. You'd expect a guy like Luis Castillo to have more runs scored than RBIs, but a ratio of 101 to 17 is something special.
Quick checks: Rickey! and Omar Moreno did it twice, Brock and Rock did it once, Vince Coleman did it five times in full seasons and managed it as a career achievement to boot.
SQL-savvy folks could provide a more complete list.
I've got him down for 4 sacks and a calf injury.
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