As Michael the Kay said the other day…“Robbie Cano’s career .307 BA is the highest for a 2B since Jackie Robinson retired!” (Carew - .329 while at 2B)
When you look at the middle of the Yankees order the future is murky. Alex Rodriguez is not going to consistently turn back the clock like he did yesterday. Mark Teixeira needs to figure out whether he wants to play softball or baseball for the rest of his career. Curtis Granderson profiles better at the top of the order than run producer. Nick Swisher? Don’t make me laugh, as the Yankees will rightfully let him walk rather than offer a multi-year deal for a sixth-place hitter on a good team. There is no one that profiles as a middle-of-the-order run producer in the minors, especially now that Jesus Montero is in the Pacific Northwest.
That brings me to Cano. He has been called “Rod Carew with power,” but he should belong in the conversation with some of the best in the game at his position. Most believe Joe Morgan is the best second baseman in history. Through the age of 29, Morgan had accumulated 103 HRs, 433 RBI and a batting average of .270. He had two All-Star appearances and had won his first Gold Glove during that 1973 season. In comparison, Cano is also a tw0-time All-Star, won a Gold Glove and a superior offensive player with 144 career HRs, 621 RBI and a .307 batting average.
...If Votto is worth $25 million a year, then what will Cano demand at a far more premium position. Also, Votto – although a solid player – is nowhere near considered one of the elite first baseman in the history of the game. As mentioned, Cano’s production to date puts him in the same class as Morgan, but is also superior to Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar.
When you factor in the Yankees don’t have an elite run-producer coming from the farm system, then signing Cano to a monster deal is probably something they have no choice but to swallow.
Can you see 10-years/$300 million? I can.
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1. ShoeGrit Posted: April 15, 2012 at 07:37 AM (#4106863)The only possible reply
Most believe Joe Morgan is the best second baseman in history. Through the age of 29, Morgan had accumulated an OPS+ of 129 and 47.0 bWAR. In comparison, Cano has put up an OPS+ of 119 and 28.5 bWAR. An exceedingly simplistic comparison that ignores the fact that Morgan played most of his career through age 29 in an environment that heavily favored pitchers and played most of those seasons in a park that was harder for hitters and was superior defensively might tell you Cano has been the better player. Such a comparison should be ridiculed.
Seriously, this is just an obvious troll, right? He's saying Cano should be paid for 10 years for his ages 31-41 seasons on the assumption that he'll be worth about what he was worth in 2010 (something he's been worth once) for every year for the rest of his career.
And yeah, WAR is imperfect, but in the case of Cano where about 90% of his value comes from offense I think it's close enough.
Ian Kinsler signed for 5/$75M and he's probably about as good as Cano. Granted, he's a year older, but I'm not sure that year makes him worth 5 years and $225M less than Cano. Perhaps Silva can enlighten us on how his math works.
Cano is generally properly rated in baseball - he's a BA-RBI guy who is merely average in the field and on the bases. I'd be guessing something more like 6/120.
The comparison to Joe Morgan has to be trolling, right? I have to believe that isn't something that someone actually believes.
Yes. So why bother wasting 200 words replying to his nonsense. Laugh at him and move on.
This advice could shut this site down you know.
How many experts here would have scoffed at someone suggesting a 10-year/$225 million dollar contract extension for Joey Votto.
I know Teix sucks, but I don't get this joke.
Curtis Granderson profiles better at the top of the order than run producer.
Oh...ok.
Can you see 10-years/$300 million? I can.
Oh, Silva.
I still don't get the joke. Maybe it's because I don't play softball? Not sure.
Here’s the bottom line: contracts don’t always follow logic and make sense.
Like any purchase, there is an emotional component to it all. Scott Boras didn’t take on Cano as a client in order to get him “Ian Kinsler money,” but because he saw an opportunity to get him much more.
The sabermetricians like to quote walks etc, but it’s home runs, RBI and batting average that get these guys paid.
Cano plays a premium position (2b) and and has 25-HR/115 RBI potential.
The Votto contract has opened up a whole can of worms. If a first baseman can get $25 a year, than what is a 2b, SS or CF worth? Jose Reyes is getting $22-million later in his contract.
Will he get 10-year? maybe not, but I bet his salary is more $25 million+ AAV a year than some think.
I never said it would come from the Yankees, either.
After Fielder's deal I think that would have been expected. On the same idea the Kinsler deal provides a reasonable framework for Canol. He should be able to get more in both money and years but not even close to 10/300.
There's no reason to think that teams overpay for position. From Cot's, these are the only contracts in baseball history >$150M in total value:
1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 3B
2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) SS
3. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) 1B
4. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) 1B
5. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) 1B
6. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) SS
7. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) C
8. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) 1B
9. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15) P
10. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08) LF
. . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19) CF
12. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20) SS
13. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18) 1B
14. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15) 1B
Six of 14 are first basemen, and Manny's the defensive equivalent of 1B/DH. There are no 2B on the list. It looks like mostly shortstops and first basemen. Robinson Cano is an excellent player, but most of the guys on that list are clearly better than him. There is no tendency for clubs to overpay for 2B, and Cano doesn't by the merits deserve a contract that big.
Not really. It's homeruns, RBI and batting average that gets the guys press, but there is no indication that is the skills that get them paid. Now a guy who posts a good average and a high homerun total is always going to get paid(the Rbi doesn't drive salaries) because he's going to be a valuable player. But historically second base is underpaid on the free agent market, and by historically I mean in the last five years or so.
You are right about the first part, eventually someone will get it, but I guess it depends on your definition of not that far from it, it would require another Pujols level player reaching free agency, at a position that the Red Sox and the Yankees both have an opening(not saying they make the signing, but saying they force other teams to open their wallets) Are there any current players really on that level any time soon? in 5 years the story might be different, but there just doesn't seem to be a 300mil dollar player in the wings right now.
Who are the best potential free agents in the next five years? Eliminate all catchers and pitchers from the discussion. And are any of them good enough to get that contract?
Harper if he lives up to the hype and doesn't sign an extension with the Nats?
I think Randy is onto it a bit. It's not a player who is a star today but someone who is about to blossom. Harper, Mike Trout, Jesus Montero, someone of that ilk probably. There really aren't any free agents/near free agents who are close to the inner circle Hall of Fame level. I mean Votto got a huge deal and realistically he was not even close to $300 million and he had age and performance going his way.
Hanley Ramirez would have been a guy with a shot (30 after 2014 season, shortstop, star player) but the last year and a half has slammed that door shut on him. He needs to turn it around.
Evan Longoria will be 31 in his first season after the current deal elapses so he could be someone but that's 2016.
Pitchers are unlikely but King Felix is probably the active star with the best chance. He'll be entering his age 29 season when he becomes a free agent, he would obviously be desired by all the big money teams and he is a superstar. 10/300 is insane for a pitcher but a team like the Yankees could easily say "screw it, we can eat 3-4 years of a 10 year deal if it gets us a couple of titles."
But yeah, everyone with a shot at that kind of money looks to be at least three years away.
That's the man's stock in trade. Like Milhouse saying "radical", it's his thing. It's what he does.
Ryan Howard would laugh, but he can't hear you from the other side of his lazy river.
I would think averaging 46 homeruns a season in the previous 5 seasons was as big of a driver in that deal.
Using 5-year average masks the fact that he had 58 5 years ago and 31 the year the deal was signed... still, fair enough.
I don't know why this is the case, but it has been the case for a long time. If Cano were the same player and played 3b or CF, he'd probably be looking at that kind of a deal.
Poor historical durability. 2Bs crater in their early 30's at an alarming rate.
My guess is that playing 2B costs Cano an extra season or so - the difference between 6/120 and 7/150, perhaps.
Yeah, I get this, but move the guy to 3b if you like his bat that much.
A-Rod signed his first deal more than 10 years ago. His second deal was 4 years ago. The market is significantly different.
Kemp had a much more questionable performance history than Cano does. Kemp has one year where he was great, one year where he was good and two years where he was barely average.
Furthermore, Kemp's deal was an extension. He almost certainly left money on the table. Look at who's coming up for FA. Look at all the RSN money that's out there. Someone is going to get 300 million soon. It's just a question of who. Cano is as likely as anyone [edit] if he weren't a 2b.
Yeah, I get this, but move the guy to 3b if you like his bat that much.
If he had the arm to play 3B, he'd probably be there already.
Part of the durability issue is the weird skill set of 2Bs. They typically don't have the arm to play SS or 3B, the range to play SS or CF, or the bat to play 1B/RF/LF.
So, when they can't hack 2B anymore, they can't move down the spectrum.
I wouldn't go anymore than 6/120 on Cano, unless he puts up two MVP calibre years in '12-'13. Those would be his first two MVP calibre years.
Let's have some perspective here. This guy's a career 120 OPS+ hitter. We're miles away from ARod, career 147 OPS+ at the time of his last big deal.
"but"?
If he were a SS maybe. His bat doesn't play nearly as well if he were a corner guy. Someone brought up Votto. Well Votto had 3 straight years of OPS+ far better than Cano's career high, and is a few years younger. If Cano were a corner guy, he'd be lucky to get 75% of Joey Votto money.
Are you saying that Cano doesn't have the arm?
I think Cano would make a fine third baseman. He seems to have the arm for it. His arm is massively overqualified for second base, but he obviously lacks the range to play SS. He frequently turns double plays throwing completely flatfooted, just throwing the 90 feet completely with his arm. I think he's almost surely got the arm strength to play 3B. Even at 2B, his range is unremarkable. But he has very quick feet and hands as well as a strong arm; I think he has the perfect skill set to be a very good third baseman. But as long as the Yankees want to play him at 2B, I'm okay with it.
Last year, Cano's arm was rated an 83 in TangoTiger's Fan Scouting Reports. Ratings are across the defensive fielding spectrum, meaning Cano had the highest fan scouted arm strength of any Yankees regular, just topping Rodriguez's 80.
[Edit] For 2010, it was rated an 86, and was the highest, topping Rodriguez at 81.
For 2009, it was rated 77 and was 3rd, behind Molina and Rodriguez at 80.
Good luck repeating his 2011 while spending 2 months on the DL and coming back with a bum shoulder. Even if his step forward was for real, the shoulder injury will probably sap some of that power.
You think the YANKEES care about WAR?????
Well, I've got to concede your expertise in the illogical and nonsensical.
I never said it would come from the Yankees, either.
"When you factor in the Yankees don’t have an elite run-producer coming from the farm system, then signing Cano to a monster deal is probably something they have no choice but to swallow."
Anyway ...
which is it? Cano could get 10/$300 because you believe he's better than Morgan or Cano could get 10/$300 because the market is illogical?
On 2B ... Kinsler's $15 M a year is the highest AAV ever for a 2B. The Mannys, Sosas, Jeters, ARods, etc. of the world were getting $18-25 M 10 years ago but Cano is going to double Kinsler's record?
Rogers Hornsby much?
I think it's crazytalk to say Cano has a chance at 300M. 6/120 as a realistic floor sounds about right for the back half of Robby Cano's career, assuming he maintains his 09-present production until he hits FA. 130 OPS+ 2b's don't grow on trees.
EDIT: and off the top of my head for fun:
C - Bench/Berra
1B - Gehrig (Pujols has a chance if he gets back on track.)
2B - Hornsby.
SS - Wagner.
3B - Schmidt.
LF - Rickey? Aaron? Williams?
CF - Mays/Cobb
RF - Ruth.
SP - Walter Johnson?
CL - Rivera.
Tell that to Cleveland Indians 1B Jose Lopez!
Bonds, damn it! Barry Bonds!
2B don't get paid like this. I don't know why, but they don't.
Eddie Collins much?
Aren't most 1B and 3B and many OF'ers also failed SS?
Chuck Knoblauch served as a perfect example of this. And it was clear beforehand how the move to LF was going to turn out.
Cano is a very good player. He's also overrated by Yankees fans. And he's about to hit 30. To lock him up to a mega-deal seems like a really bad idea.
I read somewhere - might have been Bill James - that second basemen are literally never taken in the first round of the draft, because if they were really any good, they'd have been shortstops in college or high school.
In this case, Cano had 395 minor league games at 2B, 80 at SS, 16 at 3B. And 1 at C, when they were auditioning him for Posada's job.
Of course, no way Cano was going to play SS for the major league club. Or 3B, for that matter, once ARod arrived.
IIRC, Torre tried to play Tony Womack at 2B first, and it was only when Womack hit like Womack that Torre finally turned to Cano.
Collins was the centerpiece of one of the greatest teams ever.He even emerged as a good guy in the Black Sox scandal. Hornsby was traded a billionjillion times including 4 times in 4 years, not exactly a sign that teams want to build around him.
And this isn't JMHO. Unless I'm mighty mistaken, wasn't Collins voted over Hornsby by the HoM as the all time best 2b with Morgan coming in 3rd?
3B, yes. For 1B and OF, a large percentage of them throw left-handed, so never would have played SS beyond probably Little League.
Revenue is going up, so that is going to be reflected in player salaries. Cano's 2013 option year is $15M and he figures to get a raise in free agency. His 2012-13 performance could also put him in a clearly better category than Kinsler, or not if he slips. However, the speculative $300M figure is probably just included to generate buzz for the article. Seems to have worked.
1st Round Draft Picks in the MLB June Amateur Draft, with a listed position of 2B
"22 matching player(s). 11 played in the majors (50%). Total of 80.8 WAR, or 7.3 per major leaguer."
1st Round Draft Picks in the MLB June Amateur Draft, with a listed position of SS
214 matching player(s). 134 played in the majors (62%). Total of 1343.8 WAR, or 10.0 per major leaguer.
Top 11 SS draftees by WAR, for comparison:
Source B-R
1st Round Draft Picks in the MLB June Amateur Draft, with a listed position of
.C: 130 matching player(s). 77 played in the majors (59%). Total of 631.5 WAR, or 8.2 per major leaguer.
1B: 79 matching player(s). 55 played in the majors (69%). Total of 711.4 WAR, or 12.9 per major leaguer.
3B: 94 matching player(s). 60 played in the majors (63%). Total of 520.4 WAR, or 8.7 per major leaguer.
OF: 277 matching player(s). 159 played in the majors (57%). Total of 1598.2 WAR, or 10.1 per major leaguer.
.P: 767 matching player(s). 451 played in the majors (58%). Total of 2594.2 WAR, or 5.8 per major leaguer.
edit: and Burke was a shortstop the year he was drafted.
...Touche. I'd had no idea of, well, much of at all about this and I'll happily admit you know much more about this than I. I really don't know as much as I should about the game before the liveball era. Next time somebody asks, I'll say Eddie Collins... or Hornsby. ;)
@49/tshipman
I understand that second basemen haven't been paid like this, but Cano is a Yankee with an outside chance at the HOF if he keeps this up for a few more years. Account for salary inflation (after Fielder and Votto, it seems as though marquee players might be about to see their k's surge in value) and it's completely plausible that Cano becomes the first 20/yr 2B. Not that I think it's a very good idea, of course.
Cano at $18 is probably close to a lock; Cano at $20 seems reasonably likely to me; Cano at $22 will be stretching it methinks.
As to the Yanks -- that's the magic "get below the lux tax threhold" year and ARod at $25, Tex at $22, CC at $22 and Cano at $30 is not conducive to staying below the threshold. Cano's best bet at the super big money might be a frustrated Nats, desperate Mets/Cubs, etc.
#59 is a great list! Two drafted SS amassed more WAR than all the 2B combined and a few more give it a good go. Here's a tip for you kids out there -- if your manager wants to move you to 2B, don't let him do it. 3B, CF, anywhere but 2B. Only 22 2Bs in the first round of 45+ drafts.
Fascinating. According to this, Pat Rockett was a high school SS, too, and was a full-time SS from the moment he got to the minors. I don't know why he's listed as a second baseman.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20040607&content_id=763748&vkey=draft2004&fext;=.jsp&c_id=null
In hindsight, that one's good for a couple of chuckles. DeWitt as a "bat" is funny yet the Loney comp is not far off!
Wow, they do not mess around when they grab a 1B in the first round. And that doesn't include Pujols or Bagwell (but does Thomas).
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