The difference between the '69 Cubs (worst year ever) and the current Red Sox is that the Cubs finished 8 games out. Even if the Cubs had played a bit better in September they still lose. So there was no one game, no particular play to dwell on.

If the Red Sox lose the WC (water closet or toilet in England) it will be on the last day of the season or a tie breaker. I am not sure which would be worse.

I miss Curt Schilling.

I would bet the pitchs seen per plate appearance has nose-dived too.

Chris Capuano is still available!

Chris Capuano is still available!

A Capuano! A Capuano! My kingdom for a Capuano!

Ted Lilly is available too.

But here’s one thing I’ve noticed, although it will be controversial to the “Moneyball” crowd. The Boston pitchers may be choking.

They can't choke. They are all proven veterans and September-tested. This will be controversial for the "veteran presence" crowd.

Hell, Paul Byrd is presumably tanned, rested, and ready.

Silver's using the last 25 games as his timeframe actually underrates the '69 Cubs collapse, since from August 16th through the end of the season they lost 17 games to the Mets. It took them 24 games to blow a 9 game lead, but once they blew it, it took them only 17 more games to fall to 9 games behind, before gaining a meaningless game on the final day of the season.

And I wonder how many people realize that the game that brought the Mets even was a three hit shutout by Nolan Ryan?

They can't choke. They are all proven veterans and September-tested. This will be controversial for the "veteran presence" crowd.

Hey, if Kyle Weiland had just ONE CAREER WIN the Red Sox would have a one-game lead right now.

If Beckett and Lester had won just one game in their last 5 starts combined they'd have the lead right now.

Of course they're choking. It couldn't be more obvious.

But, but....I thought that choking is a myth, that it's all mere randomness!

If nothing else, this month may shut up the "choking is a myth" crowd for at least a few weeks. As if all the negative emotions surrounding a ballplayer couldn't possibly affect his performance.

I've always believed that choking exists, it's "clutch" that I dispute- unless you want to define clutch as simply not choking.

If nothing else, this month may shut up the "choking is a myth" crowd for at least a few weeks.

When has anyone ever shut up around here, ever?

Of course they're choking*...but we can't get into that 'for want of a nail' stuff too much. Ellsbury didn't drop the ball last night because he's a choker, he dropped it because he slammed into the wall.

Now SALTY, he choked on that that throw home.

*That said, I'd say Beckett's problem is he's about as big as Schilling right now.

I've always believed that choking exists, it's "clutch" that I dispute- unless you want to define clutch as simply not choking.

Actually, that strikes me as a perfectly reasonable definition. Playing the same way in the most meaningful moment as you do in a (relatively) meaningless situation is something that some people are better at than others (not just baseball players).

I know for a fact choking exists. I've done it in sports numerous times. Standing over an easy four foot putt that I would normally make every time but that lips out because I didn't putt with conviction due to circumstances. It's happened to me, and probably every golfer out there. In some respects, golf and baseball tend to be good comps for the mental side of things.

I've always believed that choking exists, it's "clutch" that I dispute- unless you want to define clutch as simply not choking.

Actually, that strikes me as a perfectly reasonable definition. Playing the same way in the most meaningful moment as you do in a (relatively) meaningless situation is something that some people are better at than others (not just baseball players).

This. It's also known as the ability to maintain (or even increase) focus under stress.

No one has ever said that choking is a myth. What people say is that it's not predictable. Which is a different argument.

More trade options: Carl Pavano is scheduled to pitch on Wednesday (against Bruce Chen, who probably would be a better option).

I know for a fact choking exists. I've done it in sports numerous times. Standing over an easy four foot putt that I would normally make every time but that lips out because I didn't putt with conviction due to circumstances. It's happened to me, and probably every golfer out there. In some respects, golf and baseball tend to be good comps for the mental side of things.

Golf and pool are perhaps the easiest sports to see it in, since it both cases the object ball is stationary and the only variable is your ability to execute your stroke. IMO the ability to zone out all extraneous mental factors when the stakes are highest is the single biggest asset that any athlete can have.

I'm sure it's been mentioned here many times before, but Gladwell's choking article is a fairly good anecdotal discussion of the subject.

No one has ever said that choking is a myth. What people say is that it's not predictable.

Tell that to all the Red Sox fans who've been posting here for the past three weeks.

Golf and pool are perhaps the easiest sports to see it in, since it both cases the object ball is stationary and the only variable is your ability to execute your stroke. IMO the ability to zone out all extraneous mental factors when the stakes are highest is the single biggest asset that any athlete can have.

Two others from real sports *smile* that come to mind are free throws and (football) field goals and extra points.

Golf and pool are perhaps the easiest sports to see it in, since it both cases the object ball is stationary and the only variable is your ability to execute your stroke. IMO the ability to zone out all extraneous mental factors when the stakes are highest is the single biggest asset that any athlete can have.

Couldn't agree more. I've historically been much better at sports that are faster-paced for this very reason. Less time for my mind to be cluttered by extraneous thought.

I know for a fact choking exists. I've done it in sports numerous times. Standing over an easy four foot putt that I would normally make every time but that lips out because I didn't putt with conviction due to circumstances. It's happened to me, and probably every golfer out there. In some respects, golf and baseball tend to be good comps for the mental side of things.

And guys like you** are weeded out before you get a sniff of the pros.

** And me. :)

But, but....I thought that choking is a myth, that it's all mere randomness!

If nothing else, this month may shut up the "choking is a myth" crowd for at least a few weeks. As if all the negative emotions surrounding a ballplayer couldn't possibly affect his performance.

Nobody ever said choking doesn't exist. They say that about clutch, but you see choking all the time.

Actually, you could say that being clutch is just not choking. Maintain your regular level of performance under pressure, and you'll outperform the avg.

Tell that to all the Red Sox fans who've been posting here for the past three weeks.

That's not predicting Andy. That would be identifying it as it's happening.

I think it's generally understood, even among us stathead types, that big leaguers can choke. It's also assumed that no one is specifically a choker, as such a permanent condition would have prevented him from reaching the big leagues in the first place.

Tell that to all the Red Sox fans who've been posting here for the past three weeks.

They usually make better posts but they have really choked the last month or so.

And guys like you** are weeded out before you get a sniff of the pros.

** And me. :)

Pros miss three foot putts too. You've never seen a pro golfer get the yips?

Steve Blass/Steve Trout/Steve Sax/Chuck Knoblauch (what's with all the Steves?) syndrome is choking to its highest degree. The player just can't psychologically perform normal activities.

apparently Shaquille O'Neal would routinely make 70-80% of his free throws in practice. In games? he choked.

Pros miss three foot putts too. You've never seen a pro golfer get the yips?

Yes, but generally less than 1% of the time. Four-footers, about 9% of the time.

(Yes, I know, generally tougher greens, etc.)

Steve Blass/Steve Trout/Steve Sax/Chuck Knoblauch (what's with all the Steves?) syndrome is choking to its highest degree. The player just can't psychologically perform normal activities.

From now on let's call him Steve Knoblauch. And Steve Ankiel.

And Steve Sasser. The hell kind of name is Mackey anyway.

Steve Beane never should have written that book.

DB

Pros miss three foot putts too. You've never seen a pro golfer get the yips?

Not as often as I've heard about it.

apparently Shaquille O'Neal would routinely make 70-80% of his free throws in practice. In games? he choked.

I was just going to say that for me, Basketball had the highest choke factor.

Golf and pool are perhaps the easiest sports to see it in, since it both cases the object ball is stationary and the only variable is your ability to execute your stroke. IMO the ability to zone out all extraneous mental factors when the stakes are highest is the single biggest asset that any athlete can have.

Couldn't agree more. I've historically been much better at sports that are faster-paced for this very reason. Less time for my mind to be cluttered by extraneous thought.

Baseball was always my best sport for that very reason, but after 47 years of playing pool, I've finally figured out that as long as you've got the requisite amount of hand/eye coordination, NOTHING matters but your ability to totally relax between the temples, with the single goal of executing each stroke exactly like you did the one before. I have no idea other than inherent stupidity why it took me so long to figure that out, but better late than never.

-------------------------------------

No one has ever said that choking is a myth. What people say is that it's not predictable.

Tell that to all the Red Sox fans who've been posting here for the past three weeks.

That's not predicting Andy. That would be identifying it as it's happening.

Except that many of them were in fact predicting a continuation of the trend, and not just noting what they'd seen.

BTW that link of Fat Al's is excellent, with a long discussion of the difference between "choking" (too much thinking) and "panic" (not enough thinking). It's an article that's well worth reading.

apparently Shaquille O'Neal would routinely make 70-80% of his free throws in practice. In games? he choked.

That doesn't really count unless he's shooting his practice FTs in groups of 2. It's easier to get into a rhythm if you're shooting hundreds.

That doesn't really count unless he's shooting his practice FTs in groups of 2. It's easier to get into a rhythm if you're shooting hundreds.

I'm deeply skeptical of that anecdote even if he was shooting them in bunches. I'm by no means a big b-ball fan, but O'Neal's form always looked absolutely terrible.

. Paul D (AKA The Other Canadian) Posted: September 27, 2011 at 12:40 PM (#3939112)
No one has ever said that choking is a myth. What people say is that it's not predictable. Which is a different argument.

Actually, that's the whole point, Paul. You obnoxious stat heads say choking is not predictable and it's not a fixed trait for players, ergo it's meaningless and allows you to MOCK anyone that mentions players choking. Same with clutch.

But, but....I thought that choking is a myth, that it's all mere randomness!

When the Red Sox start the season 1-19 or whatever the hell it was, it's randomness, but if they end the season doing the same, it can't be!

apparently Shaquille O'Neal would routinely make 70-80% of his free throws in practice. In games? he choked.

Is Ichiro a choker?

I was just going to say that for me, Basketball had the highest choke factor.

Nick Anderson had a chance to wrap up game 1 of the 1994-95 NBA finals with 3 free throws, and he missed all three. Prior to that, he'd been 9 for 18 from the field and 40 for 53 from the foul line in the playoffs. After that, he went 9 for 32 from the field and 3 for 8 from the foul line.

I don't believe Mackey Sasser exists. Some people say the lack of Mackey Sasser in other people means Mackey Sasser exists more, but I haven't seen proof.

The problem is that the Red Sox pitching and defense have given up a lot of big, untimely hits — like the three-run, inside-the-park homer by Oriole journeyman Robert Andino last night.

Imprecise analogy 101... 1964:Chico Ruiz::2010:Robert Andino

Watching Karl Malone in those finals versus the Bulls was always painful for me to watch. I always admired his career, but watching his composure during close moments was tough.

I'm deeply skeptical of that anecdote even if he was shooting them in bunches. I'm by no means a big b-ball fan, but O'Neal's form always looked absolutely terrible.

Which fits into Gladwell's definition of choking, which is that it's a case of overly thinking about your technique and not allowing your muscle memory to do its job.

I'm deeply skeptical of that anecdote even if he was shooting them in bunches. I'm by no means a big b-ball fan, but O'Neal's form always looked absolutely terrible.

I'm not the basketball expert around here, but I was under the impression every crappy foul shooter in history made 70 percent of his in practice.

So this means that visualization techniques should be part of any athetle's training regimen.

Professional athletes have created a demonstrated track record of success along their path to the top of their world. When placed in a situation, they also need to create confidence in their ability to do a job that they have done before. They must know that they have the required physical skills and can also draw on past success in the task.

This makes the coach's job even more important, as the players should be put in situations with which they may be familiar and have an opportunity to produce - not a random moment that does not allow them to draw on past memories.

Some "choking" can be due to a player being asked to do a task that they have never done before or never done correctly - they cannot either create a reference point or construct a successful version from experience that allows them to trust in their abilities.

No one has ever said that choking is a myth. What people say is that it's not predictable.

But is it contagious?

Baseball was always my best sport for that very reason, but after 47 years of playing pool, I've finally figured out that as long as you've got the requisite amount of hand/eye coordination, NOTHING matters but your ability to totally relax between the temples, with the single goal of executing each stroke exactly like you did the one before. I have no idea other than inherent stupidity why it took me so long to figure that out, but better late than never.

Yep. Same with golf. (**)

I'd have one teensy refinement to this which is that, while the goal you cited is entirely correct, you're even better off if it isn't, while executing, a conscious goal.

Mental nirvana for baseball, golf, and (probably) pool is where the mind's perception of context has zero impact on physical mechanics and execution; IOW, the four-footer to win the Masters precipitates the same mental processes as the four-footer in Wednesday's pro-am; the AB bottom of the ninth, tie game, Game 7 is the same as the AB fourth inning up 8-0 in April, etc.

(**) Wherein this player committed heinous acts of self-sabotage in the important years, with hot-headedness and not letting things go -- and, for good measure, a little "Am I really this good?" when things were going well.

*That said, I'd say Beckett's problem is he's about as big as Schilling right now.

I watched the game last night and was struck by the size of Beckett's gut and chin. Has he gained a lot of weight recently, or has he been like this for a while and I just hadn't noticed?

Steve Blass/Steve Trout/Steve Sax/Chuck Knoblauch (what's with all the Steves?) syndrome is choking to its highest degree. The player just can't psychologically perform normal activities.

From now on let's call him Steve Knoblauch. And Steve Ankiel.

And Garvey. He had the fear of yips/horrible form package.

Here's the batting stats +/- for Sept.:

Runs -26
Hits +15
2B +22
3B -1
HR -3
BB -31
GDP -1

It's the BB number which is the killer, something they've struggled with all year. If you put aside the lack of clutchiness etc. etc., you are still left with too many free baserunners for the opposition.

apparently Shaquille O'Neal would routinely make 70-80% of his free throws in practice. In games? he choked.

That doesn't really count unless he's shooting his practice FTs in groups of 2. It's easier to get into a rhythm if you're shooting hundreds.

That's where the muscle memory kicks in, and the other thing that ties into Gladwell's article is what's known about the worries of falling into stereotyped expectations. In Shaq's case, his reputation (stereotype) as a terrible FT shooter caused him to overthink his technique, and as a result he lost his natural shooting rhythm. Chamberlain had exactly the same problem.

Big guys often suck at shooting foul shots. I think it's the size of their hands in relation to the size of the basketball (that and they're not selected for shooting ability).

Maybe it's choking, maybe it's not: I think there's a lot of luck involved here. A LOT of luck. Consider last night:

1st inning: three baserunners, no runs. Jed Lowrie flies to short LF with the bases loaded and two outs.
2nd inning: two baserunners, one run. They get Ellsbury to third with two outs, but Crawford weakly grounds to SS to end the inning
3rd inning: No baserunners, out one-two-three.
4th inning: Three baserunners, including a HR...but they only score one run, because the HR is a leadoff solo shot by Lowrie...the same guy who made the third out with the bases loaded in the 1st inning. The other two runners were singles with two outs. Scutaro was left at third with two outs.
5th inning: Two baserunners, no runs. Pedroia hits a single, then is thrown out on a blown hit-and-run by Ortiz. Then, Gonzalez walks, but there are two outs by then. Instead of having two runners on with only one out, the Sox have one runner on first with two outs. Then Lowrie comes up, and pops out to SS.
6th and 7th innings: Sox go one-two-three
8th inning: Three baserunners, no runs. With one out, Gonzalez singles, Lowrie walks, then Drew singles...but it's all station-to-station running, and the bases are loaded with one out. Then Salty Ks, and Scutaro grounds out softly to SS. If the soft groundout occurs with one out, you probably get the runner home from third. If you fly out, you get a sac fly out of the deal. If the first hit comes from Ellsbury or Crawford, you probably get an RBI from the Drew single. Instead, they get nothing.
9th inning: Three baserunners, one run. Ellsbury leads off with an HBP. Then, he is balked to second base. Crawford grounds out, then Pedroia gets an RBI single. Ortiz gets an infield single, moving Pedroia to 2nd. Gonzalez flies out to deep left field, but nobody can advance. Lowrie strikes out to end the game, as the tying run.

So, the Sox had three one-two-three innings. Fine. But they also had 16 friggin' runners in the other six innings, and they scored three runs! Lowrie came up five times last night. He walked in one of the PAs, made the third out once with the bases juiced, made the third out with two runners on, and made the third out in the inning where Gonzalez was on, and Pedroia had been thrown out. He hit a leadoff HR in his other at bat. If Lowrie hits his HR in any of the other ABs, it's a completely different game. Did Lowrie choke? Or is that some bad f###ing luck?

Also, when you score only 3 runs in the six innings where you get 16 baserunners, you are clearly not getting lots of extra-base hits. Those 16 runners include:
13 single-basers (8 singles, 4 BBs, 1 HBP)
2 doubles
1 solo HR

Then Salty Ks, and Scutaro grounds out softly to SS.

Is Reddick on the bench here?

The comparison between golf or ####### pool and baseball is ridiculous. In pool, there are about 3 variables that determine whether you win; in baseball, there are about 10,000

Baseball was always my best sport for that very reason, but after 47 years of playing pool, I've finally figured out that as long as you've got the requisite amount of hand/eye coordination, NOTHING matters but your ability to totally relax between the temples, with the single goal of executing each stroke exactly like you did the one before. I have no idea other than inherent stupidity why it took me so long to figure that out, but better late than never.

Yep. Same with golf. (**)

I'd have one teensy refinement to this which is that, while the goal you cited is entirely correct, you're even better off if it isn't, while executing, a conscious goal.

You're absolutely correct about this, and the elusive trick is to incorporate all the techniques of a perfect stroke into your muscle memory before you forget one or two key parts of it! In my case it's been a matter of slowly incorporating one part of the stroke into subconscious muscle memory, and then going on to the next stage. The problem with many pool (and I'm sure golf) instructors is that they try to teach too much at once, and your muscle memory can't incorporate it all. Of course it also may be that some people are faster learners than others. (Ouch!)

Big guys often suck at shooting foul shots. I think it's the size of their hands in relation to the size of the basketball (that and they're not selected for shooting ability).

When Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 points, everyone in the NBA was most amazed by the fact he was 28-for-32 from the line that night (I think he even made 21 of his first 22)...

Choking (and "clutch" play) exist but the great majority of each is simply happenstance.

I mean, look at the Sox during this stretch. The crappy performances from the starters are largely made up of two groups;

1. bad starts by bad pitchers. I mean, is John Lackey or Kyle Weiland choking or do they just suck?

2. bad starts by pitcher coming off injury. Have Beckett's post injury starts been anything surprising? Power pitcher injures push ankle and isn't quite right when he comes back.

That leaves Lester as a "choke" candidate. Forgive me but I'm giving the cancer-survivor with a career 2.57 post-season ERA the benefit of the doubt that it's random.

When we start assigning mental issues to performance results I think we are more often than not headed down an unnecessary and often counterproductive road. Yes it happens (see: Sasser, Knoblauch etc...) but I think 99% of what we call choke/clutch is just guys doing or not doing their job.

The comparison between golf or ####### pool and baseball is ridiculous. In pool, there are about 3 variables that determine whether you win; in baseball, there are about 10,000

Sure, but that's because it's a team sport played with a moving ball. Duh. But the mental aspects of the three sports is very similar, with the key common element of the ability to remain focused under stress. There's more in common among those three sports than there is between any of them and football. And anyway, the point isn't about "winning", it's about executing.

Choking (and "clutch" play) exist but the great majority of each is simply happenstance.

Absolutely. The point about the existence of choking doesn't need to be applied to every case of "failure" in order to be valid in some cases.

Sure, but that's because it's a team sport played with a moving ball. Duh. But the mental aspects of the three sports is very similar, with the key common element of the ability to remain focused under stress. There's more in common among those three sports than there is between any of them and football. And anyway, the point isn't about "winning", it's about executing.

My issue with this is not about whether mental aspects aren't real or evident in "choking" my problem is, and always has been, with the post-hoc identification of such based entirely on results. If you want to say that someone is choking based on how they look at the plate or how they look on the mound, that's one thing. I don't dispute Blass or Ankiel one bit. If, however, you want to say that an entire team is "choking" because they are losing I think that is absurd.

A team loses 10 in a row in May and nobody gives a ####; in June, nobody gives a ####; July, nobody; but if a team loses 10 in a row in September it is automatically "they're choking!" which I think is horseshit. Puerile over-simplicity taken to its maximum capacity.

I'm not the basketball expert around here, but I was under the impression every crappy foul shooter in history made 70 percent of his in practice.

Foul shooting tends to be much easier in practice situations because most teams don't practice free throws in a realistic scenario. In game action, especially at the end of the game, players have been running up and down the court for 2+ hours and, even if they are in shape, they are now tired. This has a negative effect on their shooting ability. In practice most teams just have their players step up to the line and take a couple of foul shots and move on. Even if they do this at the end of practice, when fatigue might be a factor, it isn't the same thing as having played a competitive game. Players do shoot hundreds of free throws on their own to develop muscle memory; a reasonably competent shooter should be able to make 70-75% of his foul shots under these conditions. The really good ones can likely approach 95% if all they have to do is stand there and shoot.

According to Boston Dirt dogs, Beckett was scarfing McDonald's double cheeseburgers during the post game interviews. ??? Does a guy who makes 8 figures have to order off the @#$@ dollar menu? Send out for some Morton's, fer chrissakes! Seriously, do dumb jocks just have really underdeveloped palettes? Was it Coco Crisp who was complaining about the food at Panda Express recently?

That leaves Lester as a "choke" candidate. Forgive me but I'm giving the cancer-survivor with a career 2.57 post-season ERA the benefit of the doubt that it's random.

He's been awful in his last three starts, all in big games where the team badly needed him to perform well. He was much worse than at any point in this season. This is also a guy on a three game postseason losing streak, mind you (one terrible start, one OK start, one mediocre start).

Why should Lester be exempted from the choker label the rest of the team is wearing so well? Because he's a likable guy with a story that's great to root for? Mind you I love the guy, attended his no-hitter and everything, and think overall he's a fine pitcher.

IMO what's happened to Lester this month isn't random. I think he choked, for lack of a better term. He insists he's healthy FWIW.

According to Boston Dirt dogs, Beckett was scarfing McDonald's double cheeseburgers during the post game interviews

I'm going to go ahead and say you've been had, since BDD is the Snookie of sports sites: loud, vapid and aggressively stupid, and a fine sign of the decline of our moral fiber.

Anyone who doesn't believe choking is anything more than just an unlucky occurrence of events in a random distribution has never played sports. Its absolutist positions like this that give saberists a bad name amongst more old-school folks.

To deny choking is to deny that there is any psychological component to sports, which is as foolish as it gets.

Its absolutist positions like

Anyone who doesn't believe choking is...

that give saberists a bad name

Beckett was scarfing McDonald's double cheeseburgers during the post game interviews

Was Becket morbidly obese or a rickets victim as a child or something? I've never seen anyone under 300 lbs with knock knees like his.

I'm with #62. In addition to bad luck (for example, bad sequencing of baserunners and hits), some of these guys just suck. Kyle Weiland isn't choking - he sucks. Tim Wakefield isn't choking - he's 45, he's thrown 154 innings, he has virtually the same stats as 2010, and he sucked last year. Erik Bedard isn't choking - he's an injury-prone pitcher who is coming back from a legit knee injury, and is experiencing other nagging injuries because of the knee injury.

Lackey sucks. His season stats are just remarkably bad. He has the most H/IP of any ERA qualifier. He has the 7th-most BBs/IP. He has the highest WHIP. The highest ERA - in fact, get this. The difference between Lackey and the second-highest ERA (Brad Penny) is 1.11. The difference between Brad Penny and the LEAGUE AVERAGE is 1.22. Lackey is so much worse than anybody else, it is remarkable. In fact, according to BR.com, Lackey has the 14th-worst ERA+ with 160 IP or more since 1901.

Imprecise analogy 101... 1964:Chico Ruiz::2010:Robert Andino

Why, what did Ruiz do in 1965?

I watched the game last night and was struck by the size of Beckett's gut and chin. Has he gained a lot of weight recently, or has he been like this for a while and I just hadn't noticed?

Anyone's chin would look big when he's next to John Lackey.

Choking (and "clutch" play) exist but the great majority of each is simply happenstance.

Sure ... but we know mental factors can impact physical performance, even in pros. At the far end of the tail, we have talented professionals whose mental processes make them virtually incapable of performing the fundamental acts of their sport more proficiently than a rank amateur -- Ian Baker-Finch, Steve Blass, Rick Ankiel, Kevin Saucier, etc. It's almost as if these guys were possessed (in a Satanic sense) by their thoughts, which, in turn, had an undeniable -- and irredeemable -- impact on their physical performance.

In between these guys and the substantial majority of professionals who can physically perform even though they're nervous lie, it's almost impossible to deny, many players who aren't Finch or Blass, but nevertheless suffer physical manifestations from mental context. They're tough to identify (and very tough if not impossible to demonstrate through statistical inference), but they simply have to exist. Human beings wouldn't break down into mentally fried, mentally unaffected, and nothing else.

Anyone who doesn't believe choking is anything more than just an unlucky occurrence of events in a random distribution has never played sports. Its absolutist positions like this that give saberists a bad name amongst more old-school folks.

I don't think clutchness is more than the absence of choking, but I have been a firm believer in the reality of choking since I saw a poor young South Korean pistol shooter in the Olympics tremble like he had Parkinsons when he just had to make one last easy shot for gold, he finished fourth.

There seem to be two definitions of "choke" in this thread. Gotta throw one strike (hit one short putt / free throw / extra point) for the championship, get the yips, can't do it, you've choked: that's "tactical" choking.

Then there's "strategic" choking. September is important, Jon Lester in his last three starts is 0-3 with an ERA of ten; that's ghastly. But tactically, he still induced 40 outs in those games, and even though his OBP against was .433, his opponents still made outs more than half the time. He had 10 strikeouts and only gave up two HRs in the three games. Tactically, he made scores of good pitches.

It's possible he is in a colossally foul mood and has lost the will to compete, but it's equally possible that, as often in sports, the other guys just play better than you do.

Edit: Quite aside from the fact that any bad streak can be due to injuries too minor to report ...

Foul shooting tends to be much easier in practice situations because most teams don't practice free throws in a realistic scenario.

Most coaches do practice free throws at the end of practice. In high school, we used to have one guy shoot two, then run to the other side of the court and back, switch shooters, repeat. Half the team on one side, the other on the other half. The split squad that scored the most, didn't have to run laps afterwards.

Sorry, I haven't been following the Sox slide that closely. Is the theory now that John Lackey, the guy with the 3.12 postseason ERA who won Game 7 of the 2002 World Series as a 23-year-old rookie, and Josh Beckett, the guy with the 3.07 postseason ERA who won the 2003 World Series MVP and the 2007 ALCS MVP, are now chokers? And Lester, the guy with the 2.57 postseason ERA who at age 23 pitched and won the clinching game of the 2007 World Series? And David Ortiz, with the .908 postseason OPS, the 2004 ALCS MVP, and a million* game-winning home runs?

Those guys are of course not the only ones underperforming, but they have all contributed to the Sox' slide in September. They may, in fact, be "choking" at this point. I'm pretty sure I saw something similar happen to the 2008 Mets. But it's really hard for me to see how this is evidence that clutch play/choking is a predictable skill.

*estimated figure

According to Boston Dirt dogs, Beckett was scarfing McDonald's double cheeseburgers during the post game interviews. ??? Does a guy who makes 8 figures have to order off the @#$@ dollar menu? Send out for some Morton's, fer chrissakes! Seriously, do dumb jocks just have really underdeveloped palettes? Was it Coco Crisp who was complaining about the food at Panda Express recently?

First of all, don't read Boston Dirt Dogs, what a joke.

Secondly, having money doesn't mean one has rich tastes

Third, even if someone has rich tastes sometimes they want something more comforting. My father is a pretty refined guy but man you should see his eyes light up when he has some ritz crackers and sardines in front of him.

#80, I don't think anyone's said it's a predictable skill. But if you don't think the players on the team are choking this month you simply haven't been watching the games.

Theo said it best: losing is contagious. The whole team's caught a fatal case of it.

Was it Coco Crisp who was complaining about the food at Panda Express recently?

You're confusing Coco Crisp with everyone who has ever eaten at Panda Express.

Did Lowrie choke? Or is that some bad f###ing luck?

Lowrie didn't choke, he went the opposite way well in his first AB, and was just overwhelmed in his last.

The Red Sox choking isn't the kind like shaking and praying the ball isn't hit to you...it's more of going "Oh God, here we go..I knew we were going to lose" and instead of just bearing down and trying to win every AB, they lose their focus, and get out of their game.

It doesn't help also that I don't think there's anything even resembling a clubhouse leader on the roster or in the FO.

You're confusing Coco Crisp with everyone who has ever eaten at Panda Express.

More specifically in this instance I believe it was Cameron Maybin. (Though I could be wrong as well)

More specifically in this instance I believe it was Cameron Maybin. (Though I could be wrong as well)

No, you remember correctly. Here's the thread.

It doesn't help also that I don't think there's anything even resembling a clubhouse leader on the roster or in the FO.

Did they used to have a clubhouse leader and lost him? Or he just lost the knack for it?

Curt Schilling? Kevin Millar?

In case it's not obvious these are serious questions. I've never really followed the Red Sox beyond watching a handful of games a season so I really have no idea who is/isn't a leader. I'd assume Varitek is, if only because he's been made captain. Have his declining skills also made him a less viable leader?

#80, I don't think anyone's said it's a predictable skill. But if you don't think the players on the team are choking this month you simply haven't been watching the games.

#82, I admitted I haven't been watching that many of the games, but I didn't say the players weren't choking.

If nobody's said it's a predictable skill, then I don't see why this "will be controversial to the 'Moneyball' crowd" (from the excerpt). And I don't know what Andy was responding to in #12--I've never seen it argued that players never choke (or "choking is a myth" as he phrased it). Just that it's very difficult to predict who's going to be a clutch player or a choker ahead of time, which would seem to be borne out by the results of the past month, in which guys who otherwise had pretty good (though not spotless) records in clutch situations have collectively sucked.

But here’s one thing I’ve noticed, although it will be controversial to the “Moneyball” crowd. The Boston pitchers may be choking.

I seem to recall a certain "Moneyballer" writing an essay for Prospectus explaining why his PECOTA ERA projections would vary up to half a run based on clutchiness (or variance of ability with runners on base).

But, but....I thought that choking is a myth, that it's all mere randomness!

If nothing else, this month may shut up the "choking is a myth" crowd for at least a few weeks.

Glad to see everyone calling out the stupidity of this chest puffing.

So far in September, Red Sox pitchers have struck out 202 batters while walking 107 in 218 innings. They’ve given up 227 hits and 29 home runs over the month. Those aren’t great numbers (the strikeout total is quite good, actually, but the other figures are mediocre). But they’re not so bad that you’d expect a team to yield 6.5 runs per game, as the Red Sox have so far this month.

The problem is that the Red Sox pitching and defense have given up a lot of big, untimely hits — like the three-run, inside-the-park homer by Oriole journeyman Robert Andino last night. And the problem seems to date from the time when the pressure really rose on the Red Sox, following their three-game sweep at the hands of the Rays over Sept. 9-11.

Having seen so many Sox fans complaining about the defense during the tumble, I was surprised to see Boston with a +4.7 UZR in September. It also looks like the hitters deserve some of the chocking blame, as their "Clutch" (WPA / pLI – WPA/LI) has been worse than the pitchers: -2.37 for hitters, -1.69 for pitchers -- both 2nd worst in MLB to the Marlins.

Hey! Look at this big ass can of worms I found!:

It's not choking. It's a lack of team chemistry. I see 25 guys, 75 cars.

Crawford said it best when he moved from 6th in the line-up to 2cnd:

Now I can play my game and not feel like I have to hit a HR everytime.

Well dumbass, if you had any faith in your teammates and somebody had fostered a culture of "Let me explain to you how baseball works, and what you're doing wrong, and FFS stop trying to hit a HR everytime you get to bat!", then you wouldn't feel that way.

I see 25 guys out there trying to do it their own way instead of "The Red Sox way." Aceves ignoring orders, players making stupid fundamental mistakes on the basepaths. Everyone ignoring what they did to get where they were. Beckett making stupid 2 strike pitchs. Papelbon throwing 25 straight fastballs. If you had any faith in your teammates, these kind of things wouldn't happen. That's what bad chemistry and bad leadership cause.

Now insert obligatory Bronx Zoo reference.

Remember, you heard it here last: Willie Randolph and Jerry Manuel are popping corks right about now...

I am so torn. My hatred of the Red Sox makes me want them to complete the job; yet, my hatred of this nonsense makes me want them to win. Sigh.

I was surprised to see Boston with a +4.7 UZR in September

I don't think UZR covers clownshoes, little league ITP HRs like Teixiera and Andino received. Does it cover passed balls and wild pitchs? Balls lost in the sun? Clankers like the two that Crawford had the other day? Beckett being terrified, TERRIFIED to throw the ball to any base? (Did you see how he didn't even think about geting the lead runner on one play last night? Or how on the comebacker where he froze the guy at second he nearly threw the ball into CF?)

Seriously, do dumb jocks just have really underdeveloped palettes?

Maybe he only eats that way when he has the blues.

I don't think UZR covers clownshoes, little league ITP HRs like Teixiera and Andino received.

Teixeira's was a gong show, but to be fair to Andino that was a spectacular catch by Ellsbury that the wall jarred loose, I think he did about as well as any CF would have done in that situation. They could have got Andino on the throw home but it was hardly egregious.

Maybe he only eats that way when he has the blues.

I told the baseball gods three weeks ago that if the Sox make the playoffs, I'd lose 20 pounds. Let's just say that recently I've decided the baseball gods want me to have a coronary, and I am more than happy to oblige.

#95, oh yeah. I'm not blaming Ells*, it was the throw home.

*Though my first thought when he dropped the ball was, "Uhm..ya gonna get up there Ellsbury? I know that they're going to score two runs on this, but don't just sit there....oh, he's hurt."

Also for the record I believe UZR does cover wild pitches, passed balls, balls lost in the sun, and Crawford-esque clankers. The cowardice of Josh Beckett I'm less sure about.

EDIT: actually on the game I watched the Orioles were more hurt by the sun. I think one Boston player lost one, whereas Reimold lost one in left, and that dude I'd never heard of in CF for Baltimore lost another one later on.

Crawford's hitting 8th tonight, so he doesn't have to worry about hitting HRs.

Jed ####### Lowrie is our cleanup hitter tonight. Just shoot me now.

Already covered but, yeah, even the Shaqs of the world can hit 70% in shooting drills - I once read game situations make a 10-15 percentage point difference. (If nothing else, you've often just gotten clocked when you step up to the line in a game situation.*)



* Way OT but: first time I ever went to the line in a game, I was literally seeing double from having been clobbered. Shot an airball, shot a brick that barely hit the rim, stole the ball from the opponents' fast break, then immediately through a bullet to a guy who I thought was a teammate, but was actually a ref - this hit him in the head. I was then taken out of the game to get some air.