Read on while I try and locate Berkman’s “several sub-par, injury-riddled seasons” before joining the Cards. Thanks.
Of course, Berkman’s injured knee threw a wrench into the Redbirds’ original plans, but Craig’s stellar play has made that a moot point. If we do a comparison of Pujols’ and Craig’s numbers to this point, the stats are similar. After another slow start, Pujols has rebounded and is batting .287 with 29 HRs and 92 RBI and is well on his way to yet another stellar season. Craig is holding his own though, batting .311 with 20 HRs and 73 RBI in nearly 150 less at-bats. Craig has also excelled in clutch-hitting, often doing damage with runners in scoring position.
Sure, Pujols’ numbers are slightly better, but even with the extensive backloading and numbers juicing the Angels did with his contract, Pujols is earning $12 million this season (the annual per year average is just over $25M). Compare that with Craig’s meager $495k salary and the Cardinals are laughing all the way to the bank.
...Of course, the real value is in the extended view of the contracts. While the 28-year old Craig has plenty of baseball in front of him, guys like Berkman and Beltran are nearing the end of their careers. When they’re finished producing as elite-level players, they’ll likely retire or the Cardinals have the flexibility to pay them less or let them walk. While Craig’s salary will surely rise via arbitration after the season, he won’t become eligible for free agency until 2017, meaning he’ll have a reasonable contract for the foreseeable future.
A 42-year old Pujols and his $30 salary will likely be an albatross around the neck of the Angels in 2021, causing the franchise to stagger. That means the Angels must win a few World Series to make the monster contract worthwhile. Considering the club only has one World Series championship in its 51-year history, the prospects of achieving that goal are a little murky.
So while it’s easy to blame the loss of Pujols during power outages or awful offensive spurts like the team recently suffered, the truth is that the Cardinals are much better off without the best player in baseball. My bet is that St. Louis will see another parade on Market Street before Pujols leads one in Anaheim.
Repoz
Posted: September 06, 2012 at 03:35 AM |
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1. TomH Posted: September 06, 2012 at 07:32 AM (#4227969)But "My bet is that St. Louis will see another parade on Market Street before Pujols leads one in Anaheim" is a junk closer line. It's a game where you need a complete team to win, son. This ain't the NBA.
a lot of fans look at rickie weeks and then assume that the brewers offense has been worse
short version is that ramirez is a huge improvement over casey mcgehee, a trio of subs have been better than betancourt, and catcher has been better. hart has been pretty at first. the brewers are great basestealers/baserunners so there is some incremental value there
Of course I agree that the contract looks terrible now. If Pujols had a typical 7 WAR year it would look fine, but he's looking at 4-5 WAR which severely reduces his projection going forward.
I wish Allen Craig great success, and I would imagine that he's worked his tail off to flourish in the big leagues after a long stretch in the minors. But whether he has "plenty of baseball in front of him" is an open question. Here are some guys who hit very well as third-season 27-year-olds in the past half-century:
Player Year OPS+ PA AgeDon Lock 1964 123 598 27
Jimmie Hall 1965 124 579 27
Dave Revering 1980 135 412 27
Ron Hassey 1980 129 447 27
Randy Milligan 1989 144 444 27
Rusty Greer 1996 128 617 27
Morgan Ensberg 2003 131 441 27
Travis Hafner 2004 162 576 27
Ben Broussard 2004 127 485 27
Josh Willingham 2006 121 573 27
Brad Hawpe 2006 120 575 27
Allen Craig 2012 146 403 27
There are some useful players on that list, and one (Hafner) who was briefly a legitimate star. But history doesn't suggest that guys who come up at 25 and then hit a nice peak at 27 necessarily have lots of star baseball ahead of them. (Of course, two of the best players on the list, Hafner and Greer, were severely hampered by injuries, and Craig might escape that. He's also versatile on defense, whereas Hafner is a born DH.)
I repeat: I hope Craig bucks the trend and becomes a perennial All-Star through his mid-30s. But there's a big difference between him and players like Pujols and Beltran. You can't find an Allen Craig every year, and by the nature of things you have to find an Allen Craig every year in order to continually replace Pujols at low cost.
That's silly. It's quite possible that Pujols' entire salary has already been paid for thanks to the massive TV deal the Angels got right after he signed. All you'd have to do to make that case is assume that having Albert added 10% to what they would have otherwise gotten. Even beyond that, paying 30 million to a washed up player 10 years from now probably doesn't hurt more than paying 21 million to a 4th outfielder today.
Roman Abramovich doesn't see a problem with this as long as they WIN...
To Moreno's credit, he spends money on the baseball club. From a value standpoint, the idea of paying a declining Albert Pujols $30mil a year might seem foolish, but who cares except cranky sports journalists who need an easy hack piece every so often?
Now that was when Monday Night Football was worth watching.
Alex Karras is/was easily my favorite color analyst for football, just ahead of Al Derogatis
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