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Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Snell wins 20th, ties Rays record in 4-0 victory over Texas

ARLINGTON, Texas — For Blake Snell, all the setbacks set up all these victories.

Snell became the major leagues’ first 20-game winner in two years, helping pitch the Tampa Bay Rays past the Texas Rangers 4-0 Tuesday night.

Snell (20-5) threw one-hit ball for five innings and tied the Tampa Bay record for victories in a season. David Price also won 20 in his Cy Young Award season of 2012.

So, how many of you would have guessed that Blake Snell had twenty wins before this was posted?

QLE Posted: September 19, 2018 at 10:51 AM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blake snell, pitcher wins, rays

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   1. Greg Pope Posted: September 19, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5747328)
No kidding. Where did that come from? I had heard nothing about him in regards to how many wins he had. Has the win been that devalued?
   2. DL from MN Posted: September 19, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5747339)
The "opener" concept might be a big boost to pitcher wins, especially if it brings back the 4 man rotation. Pitch 4-5 innings every 4th day, get 40 appearances and usually get the decision if it is a "win" but avoid "losses" where the opener blew the first inning.
   3. sotapop Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5747347)
well, this site's two or three Rays fans (including me) have seen it coming. But yeah, I'm guessing a few years ago, being the first pitcher to reach 20 wins would have grabbed more attention.

If my season hinged on winning one game, I'd choose Sale. But -- to my surprise -- Snell has passed Sale in most of the rate stats. And if Cy Young voters consider value relative to the team's performance, Snell makes up some ground there. He's been the only reliable starter all season, he's 15 games over .500 -- almost the Rays' entire margin -- and he's done it for a team that no one expected to do a thing this year.
   4. RMc's Daps of the Dope Artists Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:01 PM (#5747348)
Has the win been that devalued?


He's got a MLB-leading 207 ERA+, to boot. (If anything, he deserves more wins!)

In fact, Snell's season is only 24th in MLB history (half of them before 1920) in which a (qualified for ERA title) pitcher has had 20 wins and a 200+ ERA+. So, yeah.
   5. TomH Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5747366)
Most of the rate stats? I don't think so, Tim; only because Sale is a few IP short of qualifying. Sale wins on ERA, ERA+ (Sale is at 224!), RA, WHIP, QS%, WHIP, BB/9, K/9 (wow, a landslide), HR/9, ERC, DIPS, BA allowed, OBP allowed, SLG allowed, better SB prevention, fewer WP, WAR....

Snell leads in wins, GS, IP, and has a small edge in "Adjusted Pitching Runs", which normally tracks well with WAR.
   6. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5747368)
Snell's averaging 5.83 innings per start. That's the lowest in history for any pitcher with 20+ wins. The only other pitcher under 6 was Mike Mussina's 5.89 in 2008. I guess to win 20 with so few IP/start you either need to have a 207 ERA+, or to lead the league in starts while finishing 6th in the league in ERA (and pitch in the one great year of the Mo/Joba bullpen duo).
   7. Ziggy's screen name Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5747372)
The "opener" concept might be a big boost to pitcher wins, especially if it brings back the 4 man rotation. Pitch 4-5 innings every 4th day, get 40 appearances and usually get the decision if it is a "win" but avoid "losses" where the opener blew the first inning.


It might, but they haven't been using the opener for Snell.

Looking at the box score, I noticed that proto-Snell Matt Moore is still around. He led the NL in losses last year and is well below replacement level this year. I thought that he was going to be the next big thing. In the minors his strike out rates were better than Snell's and his control was better too. It's just that his control vanished when he got to MLB.
   8. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:23 PM (#5747374)
So, how many of you would have guessed that Blake Snell had twenty wins before this was posted?


Anybody who read the Dugout, where I posted this a few hours earlier.
   9. sotapop Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5747386)
Tom H - thanks. I'd checked the leaderboard last week and Sale was still ahead of him in most categories. The IP cutoff must have changed. I didn't click through to see the whole list, or I'd have noticed Sale's absence and figured it out.

Like I said, I'd choose Sale for the must-win. Snell's having a hell of a season, though. A 207 ERA+ isn't bad.

Also - I'm not Tim. no big deal - there are so few Rays fans here it's easy to presume we're all the same guy.

   10. BDC Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5747394)
how many of you would have guessed that Blake Snell had twenty wins before this was posted?


Heh, I was at the game last night and even Chattering about the possibility as it unfolded.

I was kind of bummed out to see Snell leave after five innings, with a one-hitter going, but he had thrown 91 pitches and it was the usual million degrees in Texas. He was not going to get a CG unless he started getting mostly three-pitch innings.
   11. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 19, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5747396)
no big deal - there are so few Rays fans here it's easy to presume we're all the same guy.
I'm sure the same thing has been said at the Trop.
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 19, 2018 at 10:18 PM (#5747881)
It's just that his control vanished when he got to MLB.


Moore got hurt, had TJ, and hasn't seen his command come back. That does happen; TJ isn't a panacea.

-- MWE
   13. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: September 20, 2018 at 08:22 AM (#5747952)
Also - I'm not Tim. no big deal - there are so few Rays fans here it's easy to presume we're all the same guy.


If I'm not mistaken, TomH was making a Home Improvement reference.
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: September 20, 2018 at 09:16 AM (#5747971)

Moore got hurt, had TJ, and hasn't seen his command come back. That does happen; TJ isn't a panacea.

-- MWE
And he didn't have that much command to come back in the first place.
   15. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: September 20, 2018 at 09:26 AM (#5747976)
At 85-66, Rays would be leading the NL East, AL Central, and NL West.

By WAR their second best player (after Snell) is.....Joey Wendle.

(And speaking of Rays rookies: Ryan Yarborough improved to 15-5 with a 3.88 ERA yesterday. If you only looked at those numbers you’d think he was a shoo-in for the AL ROY!)
   16. Leroy Kincaid Posted: September 20, 2018 at 09:32 AM (#5747978)
If I'm not mistaken, TomH was making a Home Improvement reference.


I don't think you are.
   17. DavidFoss Posted: September 20, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5747986)
Winning eight consecutive starts late in the year is the best way to sneak up on people. He was only 12-5 as recently as August 9th.
   18. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2018 at 09:53 AM (#5747987)
I remember when Beane trade Brandon Moss - coming off an All-Star appearance, 6 WAR in 3 years - for Joey Wendle: it appeared to be such a dumb and useless trade that people had difficulty justifying it. It looks like Wendle spent three blah years in AAA, and the Rays got him for a PTBNL.
   19. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:02 AM (#5747990)
A look at Snell's game logs is pretty interesting:
- He has thrown more than 105 pitches three times in 29 starts.
- In one start, he got a win throwing 47 pitches in 5 innings (they were up 4-0, and took him out of a game they eventually won 7-0).
- In 14 of his 29 starts, he has thrown exactly 100-105 pitches.
- He has pitched more than 7 innings three times in 29 starts; in each of those starts, he threw exactly 7.1 innings.

A quick note about Chris Sale coming down the stretch - he has been recovering from an injury, so his innings pitches in the last few months is lower than typical, but:
- Since the high point in his ERA (it touched 3.00 on June 1st), he has pitched 69 innings over 12 appearances:
69 IP
35 H
112 Ks
12 BBs
0.65 ERA
.147/.207/.189
6 HBP

He has hit more batters since June 8th (6) than allowed runs (5). And he's striking out 16 batters per 9 innings, with a 10:1 K/BB ratio. Unreal.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5747997)
His teammate Yarbrough scooped another win yesterday, his 15th (Bro-Y-ar Stomp?).

// deGrom throws deChair
   21. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:34 AM (#5748016)
By WAR their second best player (after Snell) is.....Joey Wendle.
Having been to an equal number of Rays and Durham Bulls games this year, I'm convinced that their best hitter is Austin Meadows, i.e., a guy who hasn't played in Tampa all season.

(Yes, sample size, and Meadows has just been called up after the Bulls lost the AAA championship game on Tuesday.)
   22. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5748054)

Remember in February, after they traded Longoria and a few other guys and everyone accused the Rays of tanking the 2018 season? It would be interesting to go back and look at the moves they made. Is this case evidence that:

1. You shouldn't tank because no matter how bad you think your team is, they might actually be great and the guys you traded away might have made the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

2. We should be more careful about accusing teams of tanking, because the guys the Rays traded away haven't been that great, and the guys who replaced them have been just as good (i.e. Matt Duffy has actually been better than Longoria this season).
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5748073)
Remember in February, after they traded Longoria and a few other guys and everyone accused the Rays of tanking the 2018 season? It would be interesting to go back and look at the moves they made. Is this case evidence that:

1. You shouldn't tank because no matter how bad you think your team is, they might actually be great and the guys you traded away might have made the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

2. We should be more careful about accusing teams of tanking, because the guys the Rays traded away haven't been that great, and the guys who replaced them have been just as good (i.e. Matt Duffy has actually been better than Longoria this season).


I think it's a bit of both.

The trade they got most slammed for was Dickerson, and he would have been a big upgrade over Span or Gomez, 2 wins at least. And the deal didn't even save them much money.

But some of their moves have turned out well.

You'd have to think this team would have been a real competitor if they ran a $100M+ payroll instead of $75M.

   24. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5748083)
Trading away 32-year-old famous guys who aren't stars anymore is the kind of thing that looks like tanking but is actually good team-building.
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5748089)
Trading away 32-year-old famous guys who aren't stars anymore is the kind of thing that looks like tanking but is actually good team-building.

Right, but the failure to reinvest his salary is the "tanky" part.

If the Rays made the exact same series of moves and had a $125M payroll, they'd get a lot less criticism. In this day and age, any team that consistently runs a $60-80M payroll is clearly prioritizing profits over winning.
   26. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5748097)
This was a midseason trade, but thus far, the Chris Archer trade has been a guy worth 0.1 WAR in 46 IP (Archer) for a guy worth 0.5 WAR in 44 IP (Tyler Glasnow) plus a prospect.
   27. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5748109)
In this day and age, any team that consistently runs a $60-80M payroll is clearly prioritizing profits over winning.

At least they obviously let the team do whatever the hell they want to do. A mandate from ownership to cut payroll isn't quite the same as a mandate to tank.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5748167)
At least they obviously let the team do whatever the hell they want to do. A mandate from ownership to cut payroll isn't quite the same as a mandate to tank.

Sure. The Rays are not as bad as the Marlins. They're not actively trying to lose. It just when given the choice between an extra $25M in annual profit, and contending, they choose the $25M.
   29. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5748178)
It just when given the choice between an extra $25M in annual profit, and contending, they choose the $25M.
That's not really fair at all. The Rays are what, 19 games above .500? In any other division they would be a contending team, and they would be leading in some cases. I don't think you can say that spending an extra $25M would give them any certainty of overcoming their geographic disadvantage, let alone when you throw in freakishly good seasons by one or both of the Sox and Yankees.
   30. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5748181)
You don't think Yu Darvish would have put them over the top?
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 02:12 PM (#5748182)
That's not really fair at all. The Rays are what, 19 games above .500? In any other division they would be a contending team, and they would be leading in some cases. I don't think you can say that spending an extra $25M would give them any certainty of overcoming their geographic disadvantage, let alone when you throw in freakishly good seasons by one or both of the Sox and Yankees.

It has nothing to do with this season. They consistently run an Opening Day payroll between $60M and $75M. They are very profitable. If the Brewers, Pirates, and Royals can run $100M payrolls, so can Tampa.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5748184)
You don't think Yu Darvish would have put them over the top?

Dickerson alone would have closed half the current gap to the A's. He's making all of $6M.
   33. Ziggy's screen name Posted: September 20, 2018 at 02:39 PM (#5748198)
It just when given the choice between an extra $25M in annual profit, and contending, they choose the $25M.


As you would expect from a for-profit company. The job of the folks who run the team is to make money for the people who own the team, winning games is purely instrumental to that goal. (And don't give me a line about the long-term health of the franchise. The execs who made this call probably won't be around long enough to be rewarded for building the long-term health of the franchise.)
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5748203)
As you would expect from a for-profit company.

Baseball teams are typically not operated to maximize season to season cash flow. The goal generally is to cash out big upon sale.

And don't give me a line about the long-term health of the franchise.

Yeah, the long term projections for the Marlins are just as rosy as if they hadn't tanked 3 times.
   35. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5748242)
It has nothing to do with this season. They consistently run an Opening Day payroll between $60M and $75M.
Right, and they have pretty much the same success cycles as all non-Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers teams, and more success than many. They were over .500 from 2008-13, then back under, bottoming out in 2016 at 68-94, and now back on the upswing. They seem to have a smart FO that is able to put together a team that's as or more competitive than most others (despite being in the 800-lb Gorillas division) for a cheaper price. Is your position that, because their FO is that capable, they're somehow therefore obligated to spend extra money on higher-salaried players that would give them no greater certainty of catching either of the Gorillas?
   36. bfan Posted: September 20, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5748334)
Snell pitches per start this year: 94.3
Sale pitches per start this year: 94.4

If Snell is being babied or has a funky use because of Tampa Bay's creativity, what is going on with Sale?

And can the Red Sox get Sale 12 more innings this regular season (2, six-inning starts)?
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 06:06 PM (#5748346)
Right, and they have pretty much the same success cycles as all non-Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers teams, and more success than many. They were over .500 from 2008-13, then back under, bottoming out in 2016 at 68-94, and now back on the upswing. They seem to have a smart FO that is able to put together a team that's as or more competitive than most others (despite being in the 800-lb Gorillas division) for a cheaper price. Is your position that, because their FO is that capable, they're somehow therefore obligated to spend extra money on higher-salaried players that would give them no greater certainty of catching either of the Gorillas?

If the FO is so smart, and I agree they're pretty smart, giving them an extra $25M p.a. to play with would almost certainly increase their chance of catching the Gorillas substantially.

You think a goo F.O. can't make use of 33% more payroll?

As a fan of a team in their division, I'm happy the owners are cheap. But if I were a Rays fan, or an anti-Yankee/Red Sox fan, I'd be pissed the Tampa owners aren't giving their F.O. a fighting chance.
   38. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2018 at 06:33 PM (#5748362)
If the FO is so smart, and I agree they're pretty smart, giving them an extra $25M p.a. to play with would almost certainly increase their chance of catching the Gorillas substantially.
Seems to me that if you're a smart FO, you're not going to find appreciably more, say, $6-8M/yr players who will reliably and significantly improve your chances of catching the Sox or Yankees than you would $1M/yr players. You'll get the occasional good year from a Dickerson that would have made a difference, but whatever data or intellect advantages you have will allow you to get the productivity from younger, cheaper players just as much as older players a couple salary tiers higher.

The vast majority of the players who you can be reasonably confident are going to significantly improve your chances are the major stars. If Tampa could spend an extra $25M on a major impact player each year, sure, that would help them. But a) there are limits to what a single player can do, and more importantly b) the kinds of contracts those players demand virtually always become huge albatrosses, even if they were willing to come to Tampa.
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 06:59 PM (#5748379)
Seems to me that if you're a smart FO, you're not going to find appreciably more, say, $6-8M/yr players who will reliably and significantly improve your chances of catching the Sox or Yankees than you would $1M/yr players. You'll get the occasional good year from a Dickerson that would have made a difference, but whatever data or intellect advantages you have will allow you to get the productivity from younger, cheaper players just as much as older players a couple salary tiers higher.

The vast majority of the players who you can be reasonably confident are going to significantly improve your chances are the major stars. If Tampa could spend an extra $25M on a major impact player each year, sure, that would help them. But a) there are limits to what a single player can do, and more importantly b) the kinds of contracts those players demand virtually always become huge albatrosses, even if they were willing to come to Tampa.


I disagree. There are tons of ways to use extra money other than dumb FA signings.

Either the F.O is smart, or it isn't. You can't say they're smart with $75M, but $100M would make them do dumb things. I mean, you can say it, but it makes no sense.
   40. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 20, 2018 at 07:07 PM (#5748385)
There are tons of ways to use extra money other than dumb FA signings.
Well that's a fair point...I guess the question is, would spending $25M more a year on, say, international scouting and player development bring huge rewards, or are there diminishing returns after you reach a certain $ level?
   41. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: September 20, 2018 at 07:25 PM (#5748392)
In response to #36:

Snell pitches per start this year: 94.3
Sale pitches per start this year: 94.4

If Snell is being babied or has a funky use because of Tampa Bay's creativity, what is going on with Sale?

And can the Red Sox get Sale 12 more innings this regular season (2, six-inning starts)?


I think what is warping Sale's number is that he has only pitched three times since July 27th, and they all had an injury/rehab-related problem with them:
August 12th, 5 IP, 68 pitches
September 11th, 1 IP, 26 pitches
September 16th, 3 IP, 42 pitches.

If you take out those three starts, his pitches per start is exactly 102.

   42. BDC Posted: September 20, 2018 at 07:32 PM (#5748402)
The Rays did get C.J. Cron for a PTBNL a few days before trading Dickerson. Cron makes $2.3M this year and has hit 25 home runs. I can't see that they lost anything at the plate by having Cron instead of Dickerson, though Dickerson is an outfielder and apparently, this year, a defensive genius all of a sudden. At least for 2018, anyway, I don't see that they lost much in that series of transactions.
   43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5748403)
Well that's a fair point...I guess the question is, would spending $25M more a year on, say, international scouting and player development bring huge rewards, or are there diminishing returns after you reach a certain $ level?

I was thinking more along the lines of retaining the good players you develop.
   44. PreservedFish Posted: September 20, 2018 at 08:17 PM (#5748453)
Like Evan Longoria?
   45. Buck Coats Posted: September 20, 2018 at 11:10 PM (#5748584)
Rays players do seem to become pumpkins after leaving TB a lot, don't they? Carl Crawford, BJ Upton...

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