We were talking about Beltran's HOF chances in chatter a couple days ago. He is in his age 31 season and has 250 homers, 264 steals, 937 RBI, and 7-100 RBI seasons (on pace for another 100-RBI season this year). His batting line is .279/.355/.494 which is good for a solid but unspectacular 117 OPS+. He has 2 gold gloves and will probably win another this year.

If he ends up 400 homers, 400 steals, around 1400 rbi, and wins a few more gold gloves, which could happen if he has two or three more good years in him and a gradual decline, will he make it?

Ted has this exactly right.

Beltran has 106 homers at home and 144 on the road

In 2004, he had 7 HRs in KC and 8 on the road, then he was traded and he had 8 in Houston, and 15 on the road. Making him one of the rare players to hit less homers in the Juicebox than he hit on the road.

That 2004 includes 7 HR in 36 PA at Wrigley Field. Which should indicate that he should have probably signed with the Cubs. For his career, he's .392/.495/.797 with 9 HRs in 92 PA at Wrigley.

Beltran's 2004 also had the weird split of hitting .225 in hitter-friendly Juicebox Field and Kauffman Stadium, and .305 on the road.

Year by year, OPS+/HR splits for home/road games
1999: 90/115, 12/10
2000: 90/56, 4/3
2001: 145/114, 7/17
2002: 133/115, 19/10
2003: 139/142, 10/16
2005: 95/101, 6/10
2006: 118/185, 15/26
2007: 112/145, 11/22
2008: 140/115, 7/7

So, Beltran benefited a bit from KC (which was a good hitting park, but has never been a consistently good HR park).

HR splits, Home/Road
KC years: 59/64
Houston: 8/15
Mets Years: 39/65

So yeah.. one could say that Mets fans don't like Carlos a lot, since they only see him hitting great on the Road.

But, maybe CitiField will be friendly to Carlos. On checking a diagram, Citi is closer down the lines, and probably worse in the alleys.

I think Ted has this essentially right, Beltran is one of those guys who play the game essentially flawlessly. To me though, he is just in the wrong place at the wrong time. He does not have the personality of Martinez to be embraced by the fans, and he has had to compete with Reyes and Wright on our offense who are much more embraced by the fans and are home grown low paid talent. Without the personality to win us over, and his inability to show any "fire" while on the field, combined with that fateful taking of strike three to end that series has lead to him never really be "accepted" by Met fans.

I can't say that is ever going to change, Beltran's value is way beyond his "normal" stats in the box score. He puts up good numbers in every category but in not one of them does he put up a "gaudy" number. He steals bases, but he is not a base stealer. He hits home runs, but he is not a HR hitter. He makes contact and doesn't strike out too much, but he is not a high average hitter. He is what a 5-tool player tends to give you, but without the personality to spice it up, he just ends up as a really bland but real high quality ingredient to a club that simply is never going to get the fans to line up behind him. Especially coming in as a high priced FA.

About a month back, I hung out with some pals who are Mets fans, and they were complaining about Beltran. I then asked them, "Well, can you name one National League centerfielder you'd rather have?" They couldn't come up with one, of course.

They couldn't come up with one, of course.

Really? I'd think Victorino (or Rowand) would be the go-to name for anti-CB folks. Gamey dive-hustlers ahoy!

He does not have the personality of Martinez to be embraced by the fans, and he has had to compete with Reyes and Wright on our offense who are much more embraced by the fans and are home grown low paid talent... I can't say that is ever going to change, Beltran's value is way beyond his "normal" stats in the box score. He puts up good numbers in every category but in not one of them does he put up a "gaudy" number. He steals bases, but he is not a base stealer. He hits home runs, but he is not a HR hitter. He makes contact and doesn't strike out too much, but he is not a high average hitter. He is what a 5-tool player tends to give you, but without the personality to spice it up, he just ends up as a really bland but real high quality ingredient to a club that simply is never going to get the fans to line up behind him.

I think this is basically right on target, but I will point out that other than being a product of the home team's farm system, this is an exact description of Bernie Williams' personality, game, and role on the Yankees. If the Mets were to run off a string of World Championships, Beltran would probably be almost as beloved as Bernie is by the Yankee fans. As long as they don't win, everyone is going to take a steadily increasing stream of crap. (yes, even Wright, given enough consecutive losing...)

We were talking about Beltran's HOF chances in chatter a couple days ago.

Bill James this offseason gave him a 70% chance. I think that also will depend a lot on his teams' success (and I think James said so too, though I don't have it in front of me right now.) Bernie has all the rings and still is not likely to make it IMHO, so despite being a better player IMHO, Beltran is gonna need at least one, and more than one would make a very big difference. I think the writers see that as very important for this type of "all-around contribution" guy.

"About a month back, I hung out with some pals who are Mets fans, and they were complaining about Beltran. I then asked them, "Well, can you name one National League centerfielder you'd rather have?" They couldn't come up with one, of course."


MATMD concluded that Beltran is the 2nd best CF in baseball, behind Ichiro. There was no question in their minds that Ichiro is better.

Reyes too. It's sad. Many fans are blaming two of the team's three best players for the Mets' situation (and two fantastic ballplayers in general). I love watching Beltran play.

If he ends up 400 homers, 400 steals, around 1400 rbi, and wins a few more gold gloves, which could happen if he has two or three more good years in him and a gradual decline, will he make it?

He's roughly comparible to Barry Larkin as a hitter, only he hasn't done it nearly as long and hasn't gone through his decline phase yet. Plus Barry was a SS. I think Barry's a slam dunk HOFer, but unless Beltran can keep it up for another 5 seasons or so at essentially the same level, I don't think he's close.

MATMD concluded that Beltran is the 2nd best CF in baseball, behind Ichiro. There was no question in their minds that Ichiro is better.

I guess that makes him the best CF in baseball now.

I did think it was funny Berg made mention of how Beltran rarely ever makes fundamental mistakes the week of his ill fated throw to third against the Phillies. But I otherwise agree.

That 2004 includes 7 HR in 36 PA at Wrigley Field. Which should indicate that he should have probably signed with the Cubs. For his career, he's .392/.495/.797 with 9 HRs in 92 PA at Wrigley.

If one doesn't blame Barrett and Baker for the Cubs collapse in 2004, I'd credit Beltran for it... He just destroyed us that summer.

I'd happily trade Soriano for Beltran.

After 2006, I was pretty sure that Beltran had reached a new level as a hitter and was about to become truly elite. That hasn't happened. As others have mentioned, Beltran is a jack of all trades, master of none. It had be hard to love that kind of player. Beltran is also a lot like Darryl Strawberry in that it seems as if there is a lot more to the player that just isn't coming out. I think the taste of greatest that Beltran offered, the shape of his skill set and the hint of unfulfilled potential all combine to make Mets fans slightly unsatisfied with the package the Beltran presents.

Plus he's got that weird looking mole on his ear.

Really? I'd think Victorino (or Rowand) would be the go-to name for anti-CB folks. Gamey dive-hustlers ahoy!

But even people that think Beltran is an overpaid choker that doesn't care realize that he is better than players like this. There is not very much depth to the antipathy towards Beltran. Reyes and Wright are the only players that will get larger ovations during the lineup announcements. Mets fans will vote for him on their All-Star ballots, and they will say that he is the best defensive outfielder in baseball.

That he isn't as beloved as Wright and Reyes shouldn't be surprising. Those two followed the "baseball idol" recipe to a T.

Oh, crap: ESPN: Beltran Tests Positive for Banned Substance

That sucked.

Heh heh.

MATMD concluded that Beltran is the 2nd best CF in baseball, behind Ichiro.

I guess they deserve some credit for getting the ranking right...

all i have to say to beltran is

- you WANTED to play in new york
serves you right

ha ha ha ha HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Beltran Tests Positive for Banned Substance

I hate you.

Anyway, I love Beltran. He makes everything look so easy.

Baseball is amazing - the detail, detail, detail. One lousy flail hit every 10 games, and the dude is .300+ lifetime hitter and exulted by all.

it's how it is

Baseball is amazing - the detail, detail, detail. One lousy flail hit every 10 games, and the dude is .300+ lifetime hitter and exulted by all.

You are John Sterling, and you should really stop going nuts every time the Yankees actually win a game.

all i have to say to beltran is

- you WANTED to play in new york
serves you right

ha ha ha ha HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Jealousy does not look good on you at all, BC...

Baseball is amazing - the detail, detail, detail. One lousy flail hit every 10 games, and the dude is .300+ lifetime hitter and exulted by all.

You are John Sterling, and you should really stop going nuts every time the Yankees actually win a game.

And keep yer mitts outta the grub, ya hear?

"You are John Sterling, and you should really stop going nuts every time the Yankees actually win a game."

Yes. And I live with the pain.

charlie,

i happily admit that i wish that carlos the jackal had stayed in houston.

and as i have said a zillion times, if he had been like randy johnson who said thanks, appreciate the compliment, but i want to play somewheres else, well, then - hey, the guy got a right to play where he wants after 6 years of hard work.

but NOOOOOOO

he had to lie and keep the stros on the string so long they couldn't get anyone else to replace that bat. and i know he flat out lied because he had already signed a contract to write a book called - my first year in pinstripes - about 6 weeks before he finally signed with the mets

so jealous is not the right word

revengeful

is the right word.

as in - watching carlos the jackal stare at unca charlie with 2 on 2 out bottom of the 9th in the 7th game - that was the most beautiful sight i had seen ALL year

it's not against the METS, it is strictly against carlos the jackal

Oh, crap: ESPN: Beltran Tests Positive for Banned Substance

Darn, I was expecting Rick Astley