|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, August 15, 2008
If only Tony Pena would step away from the portable Hix Presto machine…I could run off a dozen or so “Almost Worse Than Melky Cabrera” t-shirts!
Salfino: Is there a bigger insult now than saying a hitter is “almost worse than Melky Cabrera?” I had higher hopes for Melky, seeing him as a poor man’s Delmon Young. Turns out that was a pretty fair comp, but not in the way Yankees fans hoped. But it shows you how smart the Rays were in parlaying Young’s hype into Matt Garza, who’s likely to be a rotation cog for as long as he stays healthy. There may have been takers for Melky last year.
Really, the Yankees young players have been terrible this year. Robinson Cano has snapped out of it a little of late, but still sports a sub-.700 OPS which doesn’t cut it at second base in the American League. (Really, Cano hasn’t been much better than Cabrera, which is scary to think about.) And then there are those young pitchers I didn’t think they should trade for Johan Santana: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Joba looked great but made the tapeheads who break down deliveries seem prophetic when those sloppy mechanics presumably led to his shoulder trouble.
Beyond this year, you really wonder how they are going to retool. I’m with you on this being not the beginning of the end for Derek Jeter Jeter but more like the middle. Cue end credits. Alex Rodriguez is fine but likely on a slower downward trajectory. Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui? Yikes. CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira suddenly don’t seem nearly enough.
Repoz
Posted: August 15, 2008 at 12:02 PM | 113 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Tags:
yankees
|
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: HP: Baseball is leaving the human factor behind (58 - 4:30am, May 26)Last: baudibNewsblog: Bud Selig -- No need for more MLB replay for now - ESPN (87 - 3:55am, May 26)Last: Athletic Supporter leads the nation in driftersNewsblog: OT: NBA Monthly Thread, May 2012 (1834 - 3:06am, May 26)Last: SpiveyNewsblog: Himrich’s Top Ten Target Field Foods (8 - 2:43am, May 26)Last: Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott)Newsblog: Boston.com: Curt Schilling’s 38 Studios lays off all staff (119 - 1:28am, May 26)Last: Swedish ChefNewsblog: T.R. Sullivan: Of Frank Robinson, Milt Pappas and Jim Palmer (8 - 12:40am, May 26)Last: The Gurus DO NOT BourbonSamuraiNewsblog: Wilmoth: Nate McLouth Designated For Assignment (12 - 12:25am, May 26)Last: TriponHall of Merit: Most Meritorious Player: 1973 Discussion (15 - 12:13am, May 26)Last: DanGNewsblog: The Hall of Very Good: Former Cards Slugger Critical of "LaRussa's Regime" (4 - 11:26pm, May 25)Last: cardsfanboyNewsblog: CSN to host ‘Phillies at the Beach’ on Memorial Day (18 - 11:25pm, May 25)Last: Fielder's the first baseman, Felder is the fielderHall of Merit: Most Meritorious Player: 1972 Ballot (28 - 11:25pm, May 25)Last: lieiamSox Therapy: A Winning Ballclub? (20 - 11:24pm, May 25)Last: DanNewsblog: Matschulat: Did I Miss The "Paul Konerko Is So Overrated OMG" Bandwagon? (27 - 11:16pm, May 25)Last: baudibNewsblog: TBO: Nerdy Rays head north (17 - 10:07pm, May 25)Last: PreservedFishNewsblog: Dodgers want to host NHL's Winter Classic (22 - 9:38pm, May 25)Last: Cris E
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
They misspelled "Carew".
He says this about every over 30 player having a down year.
Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui? Yikes.
Yeah, Johnny Damon has been terrible this year.
CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira suddenly don't seem nearly enough.
Yeah, add two All-stars to a team with a ton of injuries that still will win 85 games in the toughest division in the league and they still don't have a chance!
Cano I have more faith in, but his perceived value has also topped his actual value his whole career.
Bullsh!t.
Salfino will show up to the thread, talk about how right he was (finally) and point to the one or two things he predicted (Posada will get hurt somehow..., I (read PECOTA) was right about Jeter!, Moose is cooked (oh wait...)).
The superiority complex of American League fans is really grating. So what, a sub-.700 OPS will cut it in the National League? Quick, somebody convert Jeff Francoeur to second base, he'll be perfect.
Mike, the word is "tack," a sailing term meaning the line or direction of the boat relative to the wind.
/grammar bully
I don't know, I think that statement might actually be right. Cano set the bar incredibly high with his babip fuelled .342 BA in 2006. And he was also always considered to have some upside left to grow into. Add some good old Yankees prospect hype... yeah sounds about right to me.
That is not to say that Cano isn't a very very good player, just that even very very good players can be overrated...
And even if it's true, it's one of those things which may be true in a bubble, but--being that the context is dealing him and/or Cabrera--it's not instantly clear what the point is. If the Yankee had dealt Cano in a trade for, say, Santana they would have had to fill a hole at second base.
Hindsight being 20/20, that's not much of a hole to fill in 2008, but even the most conversative Cano projections had him at 100-105 OPS+ player, with average D. That's not an easy hole to fill.
And all we heard was how it was a fluke. And how his defense was lousy when it wasn't. And now, with one bad year, because good players never have those, we get to hear how overrated he was and how he wasn't all that good to begin with.
Add some good old Yankees prospect hype... yeah sounds about right to me.
All the prospect "hype" Cano got was about how terrible he was.
That is not to say that Cano isn't a very very good player, just that even very very good players can be overrated...
And Cano definitely was not overrated.
"Carew" keeps getting misspelled. Funny.
What press WAS he getting?
I can't evan count how many times I heard he was "The next Derek Jeter."
They were all but handing him several batting titels, with some people going as far as saying he'd be the next person to hit .400, if he could become more selective at the plate.
As opposed to their actual current situation.
That's not to say that they can't win by stocking the team with veterans in a push for glory, just that that strategy, even with their deep pockets, is probably not optimal. As each veteran you sign plays through his contract and declines as he does so, you have to keep acquiring more veterans to replace them, to keep the talent level up high enough to stay in contention. But that means that the team is constantly suffering declines in talent all over the place, and (within reason) eventually the holes become too big to keep patching, and the Yankees's ship eventually resembles Capt. Jack Sparrow's little leaky sloop, and he can't bail fast enough to keep up with all the leaks.
One thing I noticed about the '76-'81 Yankees' teams is that George and Co. managed to wheedle a significant number of trades for good players who were still relatively young (Goose, Chambliss, Mickey Rivers). That's harder to do nowadays when most GMs recognize the value of cheap good young talent. The 80's of course were notorious for all the young stars they traded away (McGriff, Balboni, Rijo, Buhner, Hal Morris).
That's just not true. Sure, non-yankee fans were probably saying that, but there was plenty of talk about what a good young player he was. I think you have your un-rose-colored memory spectacles on.
Where? He wasn't on the BA top 100 prospect lists. I'm sure he wasn't on the Bpro lists. Sickels hated him. How much hype could the guy be getting if those three major sources for ranking prospects at the time did not like him?
As for here, everyone here hated him except for Yankee fans.
He was in the Futures game. So was Ramiro Pena.
Willie Randolph, too.
I have no ####### clue.
Marlon Byrd/Mike Cameron/Austin Jackson.
I'd way prefer Byrd or Cameron to Kotsay. I'd most prefer Byrd, he seems more suited to slide over to the 4th OFer role when Jackson is ready.
Of course, that would still mean the near-term CF of the future is a question mark.
I think Melky got sent down to play everyday. He has to figure out what the #### is going down.
I am sad to see Richie Sexson go. I'll never forget that time he struck out in every meaningful at bat he ever had in pinstripes.
Good times.
Then you'll come up with a bunch of ######## reasons to disparage his performance anyway.
Just for fun.
Damon and Cano for Beltran and Castillo. Would either team do it?
His legs will wear out over a full season in CF. Gardner is coming up (he struck out 1 every 8 PA in AAA this time around, 41 ABs!, maybe he's learning how to swing at hittable pitches and can throw up an 80 OPS+, probably not), it's unlikely Damon will play CF full time even now at the end of the season, unless they're planning on trading him this offseason. And he really can't throw.
We'll trade you Ross Gload for Melky Cabrera
Sincerely,
Kansas City
Line of the day.
"Then you'll come up with a bunch of ######## reasons to disparage his performance anyway."
No. Wait. That one's better.
Seriously, Kotsay is a good idea for a 1-year stopgap in CF - if he would accept such a deal. Jackson needs another year.
I don't think the Yankees ever thought he couldn't, they just thought Melky + Damon was better than Damon + Matsui, which was true until Melky stopped hitting. Of course, Gardner can't hit either, so I think he'll be off the bench, unless the Yankees really run up the white flag and play for next year.
He's starting tonight.
yup, white flag. #### it, I'm done.
sure is fast though, he would be excellent womans softball player, with that swinging bunt thing they do.
Ross Gload sucks. And that's with the chance to batter the Yankees every season. Pass.
Yours,
New York
He strikes out a ton and he can't hit for power.
The Yankees would do it in a heartbeat. And if the Mets did it, Omar Minaya's heart would quickly stop beating, only seconds after I slashed him to pieces with my souvenir machete from Amazon Rainforest Night at Shea a few years back.
I have no interest in turning this into a Mets/Yankee thing, but the Yanks probably would not trade for the back end of a big contract for an over 30 player who would be blocking their most promising position prospect and get rid of their only good regular under the age of 30.
That's pretty much the exact description of their approach the past few years, actually....at least if you tweak it to be 'sign, resign, or trade'
He strikes out a ton and he can't hit for power.
I understand that, but his AAA stats, prorated to 162 games, includes 19 triples, 121 walks, and 64 steals to go along with a near .300 batting average.
I haven't watched him play much, but isn't it possible that we are watching a reverse Ellsbury situation. Ellsbury, similar to Gardner, had moments in the minors where he looked like an awesome leadoff man, and moments where he looked like nothing special. He didn't have much power, but he had blazing speed and sometimes got on base an awful lot.
Still, I like other many other Red Sox fans reserved judgment until we saw him play for a month, and he played great. Way over what his minor league numbers suggested. So we labeled him as great, and everyone else (correctly) was screaming sample size.
Gardner, on the other hand, fell on his face the minute he was brought up to the majors, so Yankee fans don't want any piece of him. He looks awful, but remember the sample size. Is the difference between AAA and the majors so great that someone can be a dominant leadoff hitter in AAA, and not be able to hit at all in the majors?
False, they haven't had a promising position player prospect since Nick Johnson (whom they blocked, but that was like 6 years ago and they signed Giambi).
And Cano wasn't promising, and I'll go find the David Cameron quote if everyone wants to continue the hype issue from earlier. But he was blocked by Womack. I don't think we have enough of a sample to determine if this is the Yanks general strategy.
And it was a giveaway when the Mets played the Expos, Urbina got a machete, and now he's in a pound me in the ass prison
Put it this way. There is only one consistent, quality, reliable player in that proposed deal. The Mets would be creating a huge hole in CF that they have no current way to fill (and Damon surely is no answer), and acquiring in Cano a player who is talented as hell and massively underachieving one month and thrilling the next. Beltran is the Truth in that trade. You don't trade the Truth.
It has to do with his approach. Brett Gardner will sit there with the bat on his shoulder until he's in a 1-2 or 2-2 count. I'm sure that worked in the minors, but he took too many close pitches for strike three and watched too many decent pitches go by. If he changes his approach, maybe he can be worse than Ellsbury, which of course, isn't very good.
You don't trade the Truth.
I'm not suggesting the Mets make the trade, I'm just pointing out why that trade doesn't benefit the Yanks nearly as much as it might seem initially. There are contracts and prospects to consider which make it less appealing to the Yanks. Either Jackson or Beltran is less valuable in a corner and Beltran will get old soon, CFers often do.
It'd be a waste of Beltran to move him to a corner and it'd take a huge chunk out of his value. Beltran's not an elite hitter but is an elite player because he is 10-20 runs above average in center.
Edit-I guess neither side would do it.
Intrigued? Sure. Trade Carlos Beltran for him? Not a chance. Players like Cano can break your heart. Carlos Beltran, even in a supposed "down" year with the bat, provides enormous value. That is a tremendous thing to be able to count on when you put together your roster and think about how you get from zero to 90 wins.
I mean, really. Damon and Castillo are junk in that trade. You're talking about Cano for Beltran -- and while the age difference is important, it doesn't overcome the uncertainty that Cano's roller coaster ride of a career has created. I'll forego the upside for the constancy of Beltran's contribution. Others may take him for granted, but I'll forever remain the last holdout.
That's what they thought in 2005, too.
I think they were wrong then and I think you're wrong now.
They're not even close to comparable. Damon is still a good player and has one year left on his contract. He would easily be the Mets best OFer if he came over and Beltran wasn't there.
You're talking about Cano for Beltran -- and while the age difference is important, it doesn't overcome the uncertainty that Cano's roller coaster ride of a career has created.
You're not, because Damon is worth about a billion times more in trade value than Luis Castillo and the three years remaining on his contract.
Your Yankee envy is coloring your perception.
Fixed that for you.
Wait a second. If Damon is so great, why is it a good thing that he has only a year left on his deal? I'm sensing a wee bit of contradiction in the arguments here.
The guy can't play centerfield because he throws like I do. He is having a very nice season with the bat, no doubt, but as a corner outfielder a 127 OPS+ is not all that awe-inspiring. I didn't mean to suggest that he's junk as a player, but that in the context of that trade, he and Castillo mean little other than to fill the position the opposite team has suddenly created a hole in by trading Beltran and Cano, respectively. The trade is really about Cano and Beltran.
I mean, hell, Castillo has a nice little OBP, too. Always has had. So the heck what?
Your Yankee envy is coloring your perception.
Oh, yeah. I always envy teams 9.5 games out when my team is in first place. Sick with it.
He also had a 97 OPS+ last season. He's better than that obviously but he's a ~110 OPS+ hitter. He isn't quite as good as he looks this year.
He would easily be the Mets best OFer if he came over and Beltran wasn't there.
That really depends on Church's health. A healthy Church is about as valuable as Damon especially considering Damon's age.
I'd probably make this trade as a Met fan although I can understand why people on both sides would be hesitant to do so.
K-rate is the difference and it's a huge one. Gardner sucks.
It always seemed to me like Damon was trying to throw with the wrong arm.
Because you only have to pay him for next year, which severely limits the chances of having to pay a player long after they're worthwhile. To use an example, say a team was dumb enough to sign Luis Castillo to a four year deal, then they would be stuck paying him this year, and the next three years, even though he's completely incapable of doing anything except walking.
I didn't mean to suggest that he's junk as a player, but that in the context of that trade, he and Castillo mean little other than to fill the position the opposite team has suddenly created a hole in by trading Beltran and Cano, respectively.
Except that Castillo doesn't fill a hole. In the AL, he's a bench player. In the NL, he's a bench player, but the teams are so lousy they can get away with starting two or three of them. So really, even if the Yanks get Castillo, they still need to find a starting second baseman. If the Mets get Johnny Damon, they have one of the better OFers in the NL (top 20 easy) and they just have to decide if they want to play him in LF where his defense is a plus, or CF, where his offense is.
Actually he is 2nd behind Pedroia at the moment.
If you're going to trash the Mets, CP, at least be accurate. There's very little reason to believe that Castillo is even going to be able to walk. At least not without a cane.
Oh, wait. You meant . . . .
In the AL, he's a bench player. In the NL, he's a bench player, but the teams are so lousy they can get away with starting two or three of them.
I can't keep the envy straight in this thread. First I had Yankee envy, now CP seems to have league-placement envy. Mad your team can't keep up in the AL, are you? Wish you could be in the easy league? Sorry . . . you're just going to have to find a way to compete with the Big Boys, Cowboy.
Baloney. Castillo started for the 2006 Twins and isn't that much different of a player now. Just because he has missed some time on the DL doesn't make him a bench player.
For all of his flaws, Castillo's .365 OBP this year is as good as Cano has ever posted, and he didn't need to hit .342 to do it.
The AL is a better league but let's not get crazy.
Trust me, I don't envy anything about the Yankees--except the fact that Jeter scored with Scarlett Johansson.
You and bunyon have corrupted me. Of course, bunyon only talks about my mom, not women in general.
That's what your mom -- aw, skip it.
You thought Melky was promising and they signed exactly the kind of player you're saying they didn't to play in front of him. Granted, even a lame-legged Damon is better than Melky but that's a different issue.
And, frankly, several of the guys you listed initially aren't 'promising' by the definition you're now claiming either.
This is only because the Yankees, generally, spend their money so badly. A better run ballclub with this budget signing the right free agents would be dominating this century, never mind the bollocks that was most of George's reign before then.
So that leaves Chambliss, who posted a 110 OPS+ as the Yankees 1bman, and Rivers, who had about 1-1/2 good years in pinstripes while the guy they traded had several good years left. 'Course, they did steal Willie Randolph from the Pirates in '75... Not sure those three qualify as "significant" in the sense I think you meant it...
So you're trotting out this line now too? All Yankee fans are mad if they disagree with you. That's a shame. Castillo isn't nearly the player Damon is, there's nothing controversial about that statement in the slightest. The tough talk is a nice touch though.
For all of his flaws, Castillo's .365 OBP this year is as good as Cano has ever posted, and he didn't need to hit .342 to do it.
What's his slugging percentage? I said he could get on base.
You thought Melky was promising and they signed exactly the kind of player you're saying they didn't to play in front of him. Granted, even a lame-legged Damon is better than Melky but that's a different issue.
Melky wasn't a promising prospect, at least according to all the prospect hounds (just like Cano). I thought he was promising because he was a nearly league average hitter in the Majors with good plate discipline at 21. I was hardly alone in that regard, it's unfortunate we can't all be right, all the time, like you.
And, frankly, several of the guys you listed initially aren't 'promising' by the definition you're now claiming either.
Frankly, I don't even know what you're talking about. What several guys? Austin Jackson and?
You called him a bench player and I am saying Cano can only be so much better than him when Castillo is a pretty good bet to post an OBP 25 points better than Cano's.
Except Delgado!
Yeah, Johnny Damon has been terrible this year.
He can still hit, but is another DH and the Yanks are going to have how many of them next year, including Posada and Matsui. He's another old guy with baggage when it comes to offseason planning, is what I'm saying.
Mike, the word is "tack," a sailing term meaning the line or direction of the boat relative to the wind.
Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy. I hate myself now. You know, I love chats when I'm writing them because I don't have to edit them but then hate them when I'm reading them because I didn't get to edit them. Of course, I miss my own mistakes often, an occupational hazard for most writers.
Salfino will show up to the thread, talk about how right he was (finally) and point to the one or two things he predicted (Posada will get hurt somehow..., I (read PECOTA) was right about Jeter!, Moose is cooked (oh wait...)).
I hope I don't come off that way. I'm wrong all the time. That's an occupational hazard, too. I seem to remember being somewhat bullish on Mussina relative to Yankee Nation back in April. Jeter clearly was a different player last year and I remember debating that with Cowboy. Guess I was right there. But I was wrong about Hughes! Small solace in that for you, though. I bought Damon in Tout Wars, so I couldn't have been down on him as a hitter this year. And I liked Cabrera and argued against him being cast as a fourth OF, which seems optimistic now.
CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira suddenly don't seem nearly enough.
Yeah, add two All-stars to a team with a ton of injuries that still will win 85 games in the toughest division in the league and they still don't have a chance!
Well Teixeira isn't really an all-star and barely better than what he'd be replacing, at least this year. Sabathia is great though. Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, Abreu, Mussina and Rivera will collectively likely be significantly worse. And Posada might not be able to catch or hit enough to do anything else. So I think that was a fair comment on my part. Take away 2007 Mussina and Giambi and give them Sabathia and Teixeira and I still give them about 85 wins.
Nope. But when one of them (you) goes on a nice little rant:
In the AL, he's a bench player. In the NL, he's a bench player, but the teams are so lousy they can get away with starting two or three of them. So really, even if the Yanks get Castillo, they still need to find a starting second baseman.
that takes in not only Castillo, but the entire National League for good measure, then I think it's fair to say that one specific Yankee fan is in a bit of a huff. And when just a few posts earlier I was accused of Yankee envy (!), by yet another Yankee fan . . . well, it just seemed natural to wonder if maybe (just maybe) you don't wish your team could be in the other league. Since you seem pretty preoccupied with bringing up how much better the AL is.
But maybe you're just getting your off-season excuses ready early?
the only reason he's a DH right now is because he's still having discomfort in his throwing shoulder when he throws. He's above average defensively in both LF and CF, even with his noodley appendage ... he'll be starting in one of those positions next year and will be fine.
I can buy left. But center, no way. The range is going to get worse very soon. And the arm there is too great a liability. When was the last time Damon was 100 percent?
anything is possible, but the earlier description as a slappy girl's softball player is a pretty apt description of his hitting approach ...
he was fine all year until the shoulder injury. that hasn't healed completely and won't until the offseason, hence the DHing.
although, i imagine that when/if matsui comes back, damon will be playing a lot more center again, while leatherface DHs.
Scouts will tell you that the problem with the slap hitters in the minors who generate nice OBP by walking is that major league pitchers are much better and will not get into high counts nearly as often or walk guys like Gardner nearly as much because there is nothing about them to fear.
Except that Castillo can't field his position and can't hit for power and can't stay healthy. I'd call that a bench player. Cano is playing like a bench player this year, and if he keeps it up he will be one.
that takes in not only Castillo, but the entire National League for good measure, then I think it's fair to say that one specific Yankee fan is in a bit of a huff.
And you're comparing Luis Castillo to Johnny Damon, calling them equivalent, I think it's fair to say one specific Mets fan has his head up his ass. But we all knew this was coming when you managed to get back into first place, you're all unbearable when your team is doing well.
And your league isn't as good, there's no debating that, so yes, you can get away with starting bench players in the NL easier than you can in the AL.
But maybe you're just getting your off-season excuses ready early?
Why would I need excuses? My team loses and I need excuses? I missed that last year when your team fell apart in September and all the Mets fans weren't allowed to post without excusing their team.
Jeter clearly was a different player last year and I remember debating that with Cowboy. Guess I was right there.
Yeah, I missed the part where you said Jeter would stop hitting but all of a sudden have a good year defensively. If you get the shape of his performance wrong, and he performs as well as he did last year (slightly above average), did you really get anything right?
Well Teixeira isn't really an all-star and barely better than what he'd be replacing, at least this year.
He has a 139 OPS+ and plays good defense, that's pretty much Kevin Youkilis, who happens to be an All-Star. And I don't know how many times people are going to pass around the he's not much better than Giambi theory, but it's not true. Even a casual glance at anything that factors in playing time and/or defense will tell you that.
Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, Abreu, Mussina and Rivera will collectively likely be significantly worse.
Abreu won't be on the team (Nady projects better because of defense and projects to hit about as well as Abreu has this year), I wouldn't bet against Mo (and similarly, the bullpen will likely be stronger throughout the year without Hawkins, which should cancel out any regression Mo has, if he has any, because he's pitched this well two out of the last three years), Jeter will project to be better, I'll go ahead and say A-rod won't decline next year. So Moose and Damon are good bets to be worse, while Cano and CF, along with a SP and 1b base will better. Without injuries and poor hitting with RISP, this team is a playoff contender still. Sure #### happens, but it's happened once in 15 years, I wouldn't write them off to spiral into decline yet. It's amazing how quickly everyone forgets how limited of a sample one year of baseball is when the Yanks and their players are involved.
I think that shows the limits of current defensive metrics. I guarantee that the BIS Scouts, who see every play and grade it, aren't going to say that Jeter was an above average defensive shortstop this year. As for his hitting, I said that Jeter had transitioned to punch-and-judy land. I actually thought he'd hit for a better average and I think it's reasonable to project him to hit .300 next year. But the power is more or less gone.
Nady? He's sub-par at a OF corner in his career. He will likely again be that next year. So they'll lose relative to what Abreu has done. Did I forget Matsui, the lefty Nady?
To anyone who subscribes to BJ online, what's Jeter's plus minus?
Offensively? Or offensively + defensively? Nady's career EQA is 277. MLB average this year so far, is 274 for LF, 271 for RF. In 2007, 269 for LF, 272 for RF.
I'm not including this year, which seems like a huge outlier in context. IOW, I expect Nady in 2009 to be the Nady I expected in 2008.
And historically, this is exactly what happens with most of these guys.
-- MWE
Castillo is really only playing like a bench player this year, much like Cano.
Castillo obviously isn't as good as Damon though.
As for the AL being better than the NL, this is true, but the Mets were one of only 3 NL teams to have winning record against the AL teams in interleague play. (Wow, that is sad.) And the one team they lost the season series to was of course the Mariners.
The great Sabr writer line, if the numbers don't agree with me, I'll say their limited.
As for his hitting, I said that Jeter had transitioned to punch-and-judy land.
Yeah, you and literally EVERY one else, including me. In fact, I argued he was trying to hit the ball on the ground more earlier this year because he couldn't hit the ball past OFers any more and you disagreed with me.
Nady? He's sub-par at a OF corner in his career. He will likely again be that next year. Did
So, even there's no reason to pretend this season isn't part of his record, you're going to?
So they'll lose relative to what Abreu has done.
Except that Abreu has been abominable in the field, so even if Nady hits worse than Abreu, he'll make it up in the field. Do you look at any data before you post here?
I forget Matsui, the lefty Nady?
Matsui's career OPS+ is 125. Nady's is 110.
To anyone who subscribes to BJ online, what's Jeter's plus minus?
It was -6 plays like a week ago, which I think is something like -3 runs. That's the worst rating he has among the available PBP metrics.
Castillo is really only playing like a bench player this year, much like Cano.
He's also a 32 year old second baseman, how much of a bounce back do you expect?
That's fair. I think a little. Castillo has a plus-minus this year of -14 in something like half a season, which is atrocious. The last 2 years he was -3 each year. (He is -12 on balls to his left; ouch.)
I guess its possible, but I don't think likely Castillo went from an average to slightly below average second basemen to the worst fielding second basemen in the game in the span of a year. It's possible, and considering his profile (age and injuries) probably more possible for him, but I also think he has a chance of bouncing back to closer to the defensive levels of the past few years.
Castillo has a 266 EQA this year, which is 6 points better than the second base average. If he can improve his defense a little, I don't think that is a bench player.
On Nady; what are the thoughts on his D? I think I have been reading a few places that he is considered to be average or better. I don't remember him being that good as a Met. Just checking on Plus/Minus, he is -1 "enhanced", whatever that is, in RF. Abreu is -12 in RF, so no matter what Nady will be an upgrade in the RF. Oh well.
I'm a SABR writer?
Yeah, you and literally EVERY one else, including me. In fact, I argued he was trying to hit the ball on the ground more earlier this year because he couldn't hit the ball past OFers any more and you disagreed with me.
Now I remember. Trying to hit the ball on the ground? How do you try to do that? Purposely hit the top half of the ball? Give me a friggin' break. If you're that precise, why not hit a line drive?
And Jeter always has been an extreme ground ball hitter, which is why I've always said he wasn't going to realize those power projections almost everyone had for him in the mid-to-late '90s.
What are the numbers on this? Has someone done study?
You put way too much stock in random defensive data. Abreu became a much worse fielder this year and Nady much better? How does that happen? Was Nady chasing the chickens around his yard all winter like Balboa in Rocky II? (Dating myself, I know.)
Using the numbers at Bill James online, Abreu ranked 26th among RF in 06, 28th last year, and 29th this year. So it looks like he has been pretty bad for three years running.
Nady has been 17th, 18th, and 19th the last 3 years.
So the 2 have been pretty consistent at their respective levels for the last 3 years, not just this year.
Just for you, Cowboy: Nady's plus/minus rating the last three years: 19th, 17th, 18th. Abreu has been 26th, 28th, 29th. They're both below average defensively. Abreu makes about 10 less plays, assuming a full season. Nady next year has to hit pretty close to what Abreu has this year to have greater overall value.
Beat me to the punch.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main