The Yankees will probably never see Sabathia reprise his 2008 performance. He had career-bests in innings pitched, strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings and ERA+. He also made 17 starts in the Pacific Coast League National League. Even if the competition there is identical to that in the American League—which it isn’t—Sabathia still got to face the pitcher multiple times a game.
So why is Sabathia performing more like a good No. 2 starter than a man deserving a $161 million contract? Look at his Three True Outcomes: strikeouts, walks and home runs. Sabathia is underperforming in strikeouts and walks, and his home run rate is dead even to last year.
The walks and strikeouts are the most disconcerting. Sabathia is walking 2.6 batters per nine innings (up from 2.1 and his highest since 2005) and only striking out 6.5 (down from 8.9 and his lowest since 2003). His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.51, a steep dropoff from the 4.25 he posted in 2008 and the 5.65 mark that led the league in 2007, his Cy Young season.
Sabathia’s 3.67 ERA isn’t killing the Yankees, but it’s neither unlucky nor in line with how good the lefty has been in the past. Sabathia’s fielding-independent ERA is an almost-identical 3.61. That stat, too, is his highest since 2005.
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1. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: July 26, 2009 at 01:43 PM (#3267319)Is this something specific only to CC? A.J. Burnett's strikeout rate is also down, though admittedly it hasn't tumbled as far down as Carsten Charles. Is this yet another unintended consequence of New Yankee Stadium, or merely a coincidental one-year blip for two pitchers?
Like hunting for a halo-red october says, the BB rate isn't really that big of a deal. Last year through his first 21 starts he walked 40 of 601 batters faced, this year he's walked 41 of 581.
The drop in K rate is a little more concerning, but we're only about 60% of the way through the season so I don't think we can assume he's suddenly lost his ability to strike people out.
How do you define "K-rate"? He had 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2008, 6.5 so far in 2009.
of course. if he's only 4 WAR on average that is of course mildy dissapointing. but it's not like they threw in a bunch of prospect on top of paying him that.
How do you define "Santana"? Johan is striking out 8.3 per 9, compared to 7.9 last year.
But there was no physical evidence at the time of an issue.
He did labor in the latter portions of the games started on 3 days.
Oops!
I'd think it likely that his performance will not be as good in, say, year five of his contract as it is in year one. If he is barely exceeding what he needs to average right now, that is an object of concern. It shouldn't be an object of panic though - not yet.
If it's a hangover from being overworked last year, it's not showing up in velocity. He's actually throwing harder than last year. I think the reason he's not getting many K's is because his slider hasn't been that good this year. The changeup has been his much better offspeed pitch so far.
I've already given my thoughts on Sabathia elsewhere. Suffice to say, given the degree of his K rate drop, I'm feeling pretty chipper as a Red Sox fan.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Career IP
Sabathia: 1801
Santana: 1673
(if you added in Santana's age 20 minor-league time, they'd probably be about equal)
It's probably more fruitful to measure pitcher age in IP than years, especially for guys only 16 months apart in age.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d0aC6HmxAA
Is Sabathia's K-rate still "pitching in the majors big?"
Perhaps, "pitching in New York big?"
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