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Saturday, August 28, 2010

SNY: Salfino: David Wright’s failures in the clutch have stood out

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Ironically, Wright overall is a model of Major League consistency. His OPS over the years has been .857, .912, .912, .963, .924, .837 and (this year) .872. His batting average has ranged from .293 (rookie) to .325. Take out 2009 and the homer spread is as narrow as we can reasonably expect, too.

That overall performance has made Wright a five-time all-star and probably the best position player in team history. His similar batters through age 26 include two Hall of Famers and one other hitter, Dick Allen, who should be in there (Allen was a FAR better hitter than Jim Rice, for example, and even more “feared” if that’s the standard set by Rice’s nomination).

But Wright is really stuck in the vortex of the Mets suckitude right now and that’s sucking the life out of an otherwise solid claim to at least very goodness in a borderline Hall of Fame way.

If this problem when games are most on the line is merely random, Wright needs his luck to quickly turn and for his true ability level to be better represented in late/clutch stats. And then he needs the Mets to start winning so that his good performances in the clutch can be more easily remembered by our lazy minds.

Repoz Posted: August 28, 2010 at 12:12 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: hall of fame, history, mets, projections, sabermetrics

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1. TomH Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:35 PM (#3628546)

good article, I thought. Summary: in late-&-close spots, Wright was great in the clutch in 07, & on a steep decline since. Lousy this year, in <100 PA. So it's probably a small sample issue. But once you get the "rep", it's hard to shake it, given brains and perceptions of fans and writers; tough luck, big guy.

2. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:44 PM (#3628552)

Summary: in late-&-close spots, Wright was great in the clutch in 07, & on a steep decline since. Lousy this year, in <100 PA. So it's probably a small sample issue. But once you get the "rep", it's hard to shake it, given brains and perceptions of fans and writers; tough luck, big guy.

When he's 34, he'll have a big post-season and help the Yankees to their 30th World Series championship. Then, people will get off his back.

3. Big Train Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:54 PM (#3628560)

That overall performance has made Wright a five-time all-star and probably the best position player in team history

Better than Piazza?

4. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 28, 2010 at 01:56 PM (#3628561)

That overall performance has made Wright a five-time all-star and probably the best position player in team history

Better than Piazza?

or Strawberry? (or Kranepool? :))

5. bobm Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:37 PM (#3628602)

From TFA:

But a year-by-year examination of his performance when performance is most leveraged gives ammunition to the haters. 2010: .696 OPS late and close (92 plate appearances)2009: .747 (96 PAs)2008: .876 (102 PAs)2007: 1.037 (94 PAs)

How much of this is due to the move to Citi Field (with outfield dimensions almost designed to frustrate Wright) or the loss/absence of protection in the middle of the Mets' lineup?

Wright's decline in L&C correlates to: the loss of Delgado to injury and age; the loss of two seasons of Beltran to injury; and the disappointingly mediocre 2010 performance of Bay.

I also distinctly recall Wright being a much better hitter with two strikes earlier in his career, fouling off pitches and extending his PAs in a way that he seems not to now. (You'd think he would take advantage of Citi's smaller foul territory in-play than what Shea had.)

6. MSalfino Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:46 PM (#3628606)

Should have written "arguably." In retrospect, Straw was better adjusting for era, it's fair to say, but we know how that story ends so it's hard to divorce that from the calculation. Wright vs. Piazza is about a wash when you factor in the later decline and the horrid defense from Piazza at the end. For four years, Piazza trounces every Met. Over the eight, though, no -- not in my opinion.

7. Mark S. Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:46 PM (#3628607)

First 7 years (including 2010 for Wright)

Strawberry 146 OPS+
Wright 136 OPS+
Kranepool 89 OPS+
Piazza (first 7 years as a Met) 139 OPS+

Piazza and Wright have the positional advantage over Strawberry but gives some of it back on defensive rating. Strawberry was an averagish RF, Wright is a below average 3B and Piazza was a below average catcher.

But after the first 7 years, Strawberry had two more good years left in his career (only one left as a Met) before injuries and drugs destroyed his career. Piazza only played 8 years as a Met and his last year wasn't anything special. If Wright stays healthy he'll probably be able to lay claim to being the best Met of all time (career value) in a couple years. The Mets leaders in Career WAR backs that up as well.

8. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 28, 2010 at 03:47 PM (#3628608)

Wright has hit much better at home this season.

9. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:29 PM (#3628631)

[7] I love that Mookie makes that list.

10. Mark S. Posted: August 28, 2010 at 04:41 PM (#3628643)

[7] I love that Mookie makes that list.

The Top 50 Mets WAR is fun also. Endy Chavez is 48th, right about Daryl Boston, Ken Boyer and Ken Boswell.

11. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: August 28, 2010 at 06:13 PM (#3628685)

What a crappy franchise.

12. base ball chick Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:18 PM (#3628716)

david wright has a case of "blame the best player on the team" syndrome - seeing how most of the rest of the team is, to be nice about it, teh sukc

13. Tripon Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:26 PM (#3628721)

Matt Kemp for David Wright.

14. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:54 PM (#3628739)

When did David Wright's defensive resume become below average?

15. bobm Posted: August 28, 2010 at 07:59 PM (#3628744)

If this problem when games are most on the line is merely random, Wright needs his luck to quickly turn and for his true ability level to be better represented in late/clutch stats.

Late and Close splits for Wright show his BAbip in 2006-2008 higher than 2009-2010. Disturbing is the decline in his tOPS+ from 2006-2010, meaning that Wright hits increasingly worse in "late and close" situations relative to his overall performance each year.



Year     G  PA AB    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    BB    SO      BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip    tOPS+    sOPS+    BB/PA    SO/PA

2004    37     50 44    15    3     0  2  4   6  7 .341    .420    .545     .965    .371    130      162    .12      .14 

2005    79    105    92    22    4     0  1  6  12 23    .239    .333    .315     .649    .309     46    82    .11      .22 

2006    75    104    89    31    7     1  3 19     11 22    .348    .433    .551     .983    .431    117      165    .11      .21 

2007    65     94 78    27    5     1  4 15     14 17    .346    .447    .590    1.037    .397    116      186    .15      .18 

2008    68    102    84    24    6     0  3  8  18 26    .286    .412    .464     .876    .382     92   141    .18      .25 

2009    72     96 78    19    5     1  1 11     16 21    .244    .375    .372     .747    .316     79   110    .17      .22 

2010    63     92 78    19    3     0  2  7  12 30    .244    .337    .359     .696    .354     62   100    .13      .33

If you look at the "high leverage" split instead, the trend is similar, but the split is less drastic relative to his overall performance. His BAbip in this split is actually up vs. 2006-2007, but his tOPS+ is below 100 for the first time since 2005.



Year      G  PA BB    SO      BA  OBP  SLG   OPS BAbip    tOPS+    sOPS+    BB/PA    SO/PA

2004     32  51  3  5 .370     .392      .630      1.023      .350        138 164       .059      .098 

2005    100    160    18    35    .295     .375      .424      0.799      .369         78 111       .113      .219 

2006    103    159    16    28    .331     .403      .610      1.013      .356        121 160       .101      .176 

2007     83 125    16    23    .320     .408      .602      1.010      .338        108 162       .128      .184 

2008     97 147    20    26    .350     .429      .528      0.957      .402        109 155       .136      .177 

2009     88 142    16    28    .331     .408      .488      0.896      .391        114 139       .113      .197 

2010     73 114    10    38    .289     .342      .515      0.858      .383         94 131       .088      .333

Wright's strikeout rates have generally been worse in L&C and Hi Lev splits since 2005. His strikeout rate is not only up overall in 2010 and in these split situations, but the difference between his overall rate and the rates in L&C and Hi Lev situations is more extreme than ever.





Strikeout % splits:



Year    all PA L&C HiLev

2004    14%    14% 10%

2005    17%    22% 22%

2006    17%    21% 18%

2007    16%    18% 18%

2008    16%    25% 18%

2009    23%    22% 20%

2010    25%    33% 33%

The strikeouts really seem to be driving the 2010 performance decline in clutch situation.

Source:BB-REF

EDITed for formatting

16. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: August 28, 2010 at 08:07 PM (#3628749)

Possible that he's being pitched around a bit, but he's trying to put swings on the ball anyway. Just a theory. Or it's totally random.

17. PreservedFish Posted: August 28, 2010 at 08:08 PM (#3628750)

When did David Wright's defensive resume become below average?

And when did statheads start giving a #### about late and close splits?

18. rickey steals third person Posted: August 28, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3628758)

meh, take a look at the rangers's top 50 (same year expansion) i'm not sure which list is more anemic. at least the mets won something.

19. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 28, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3628770)

The White Sox's all-time leader tables are pretty rancid, and they've had more years than the Mets and Rangers combined.

20. jwb Posted: August 29, 2010 at 09:44 PM (#3629307)

Wright's strikeout rates have generally been worse in L&C and Hi Lev splits

because closers tend to have high K-rates?

21. bobm Posted: August 29, 2010 at 10:22 PM (#3629323)

[20] That's reasonable.

However, the difference from the average Wright PA is widening this year versus past seasons, particularly in Hi Lev PAs. Are closers' K-rates up this year?

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SNY: Salfino: David Wright’s failures in the clutch have stood out

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