Figueroa is a nice story but he has mediocre stuff. He pitched well against the Brewers, a right-heavy line-up, but he was helped out with a wide strike zone. You could do worse but let's not forget that Alay Soler had his moments as well.

A very late bloomer. When he was traded to the Phillies in the Curt Schilling trade he was already 26, and then his seeming "last chance to succeed" with the Brewers was at age 30. 6 seasons ago.

I hope he does well.

I don't think he's a late bloomer at all
97-55 minor league record
12-5 and 12-8 last two full seasons in the PCL

he's like the pitching version of Casey Blake
he's probably been a major league caliber starter (not a star mind you- but a decent 3rd or 4th starter) for years

for various reasons he's fallen through the cracks
(ok he's small and doesn't have overwhelming stuff so teams jettison him at the first sign of a struggle)

Didn't he also strike out 200+ one season in his early days in the minors? I seem to recall that ages ago.

Didn't he also strike out 200+ one season in his early days in the minors? I seem to recall that ages ago.

He struck out 200 in A-ball back in 1996. He threw over 180 innings that year as a 22 year old.

Elevating yourself among this group is clearly very difficult, but the gap from average to great is not the chasm we imagine. There are likely small things, some, perhaps, having nothing to do with physical ability but residing instead in the mental side of competition, that separate the respective tiers of players.

I agree completely.

Elevating yourself among this group is clearly very difficult, but the gap from average to great is not the chasm we imagine.

I think the gap from below average to average to above average is not a chasm

I think the gap from average to great is quite wide

Something I'd love to know is how much variance in movement a pitcher has from start to start- is it possible Figueroa simply had an above average movement night? Or are those numbers pretty static in general?

Figueroa sure didn't look like much when he pitched for the Pirates in '03 and '04. He almost never got a swing-and-miss, and he threw an alarming number of complete ####### meatballs. He was like Brian Meadows if you took away Meadows's changeup (and slowed him down on the mound).

I'm glad to see Figueroa doing well, but unless he's made substantial changes to his game, I sure wouldn't count on him keeping it up. Shea ought to help him, since it'll keep a few HR-or-long-out balls in play.

Rooting for Figueroa is a matter of the heart, not the head. He doesn't have Chamberlain's fastball or Santana's change.

But did you read about the story where he gathered infield dirt in ziplock bags to deliver individually to kid fans during spring training because they asked him? How can you not be touched by that?

I've read about 2-3 articles on Figueroa's journey back to the majors. He is a class act.

All I ask for is a short interval of effectiveness, ala Rick Reed. This man in particular deserves it.

Figueroa sure didn't look like much when he pitched for the Pirates in '03 and '04. He almost never got a swing-and-miss, and he threw an alarming number of complete ####### meatballs.

Bill James summed it- most pitchers have to make adjustments when promoted from AA/AAA to the majors, power pitchers have one thing going for them- their talent us visible even when their pitching is brutal - finesse guys simply look over matched.

BTW, Figueroa actually pitched extremely well for the Pirates in 2003- he was lit up in 28 ip in 2004.

He's now pitched 269 MLB winning with an ERA+ of 91
worse pitchers have been allowed to hold MLB jobs far longer.

Also as any honest Met fan remembers- most of them wanted Heath Bell gone because in his short stints with the Mets he threw a few too many hittable meatballs.
Sometimes a team has to let a guy work through these issues- and the Pirates of the last 10 years or so certainly had nothing top lose by letting someone like Figueroa make adustments. Instead after 28 ip they decided he was nothing more than a AAAA guy. Meanwhile they let Vogelsong - a guy who had been soundly outpitched the year before by Figueroa (in both AAA and the majors) pitch far worse, for 133 ip.
Vogelsong's career minor league record is 35-37, his career major league record is 10-22 5.86

why was he deserving of 133ip in 2004 and Figgy only 28?
why was Vogelsong allowed to start the year on the rotation and stay there for 133 horrible innings while a demonstrably better pitcher (Figgy) spent the first 3/4 of the year in AAA?

Figgy got 3 starts, 2 were awful, he was actually decent in relief, but I guess it didn't matter.

Vogelsong got those chances because he was what they got for Jason Schmidt. Of course, by the same logic, the Phillies would have given Figueroa plenty of chances because he was part of the return for Schilling. Padilla also was, though, and did reasonably well.

All I ask for is a short interval of effectiveness, ala Rick Reed. This man in particular deserves it.

Rick Reed career minor league record: 96-58
Figgy 97-55

I was living in Buffalo the year Rick Reed went 14-4 2.15 there(AAA American Association)
The Pirates gave him 1 start, 6 runs 4 ip-
THEY RELEASED HIM

I had seen him start quite a few games in Buffalo that year, he was a personal fave, I was dumbfounded, how could they do that?
The Pirates were a good team then(1991), they must have known what they were doing right?
Wrong, they were a team which had good talent on the MLB field, but the organization itself, as 20/20 hindsight clearly shows was absolutely terrible.

I think, I hope, a few years from now 20/20 hindsight will show that the Pirate's organizational stupidity cost Figgy a few years of his MLB career the way it cost Reed.

Of course, by the same logic, the Phillies would have given Figueroa plenty of chances because he was part of the return for Schilling.

The Phillies gave him 13 starts and he had an ERA+ of 108

Then they waived him.... As it turns out they could have used him in 2002, the back end of their rotation was terrible

I really don't understand this guy's career.

Every once and a while, a so-called 4A guy proves to be better than that. But for every Heath Bell, there are several Chip Ambres. That's why guys like Figueroa don't get much of a chance.

a so-called 4A guy

How big is the jump from a 4A guy to a 5th starter? Then again, maybe that is the definition of 5th starter -- a pitcher who is just not quite a real major league starter. So teams keep switching them out, figuring that (a) one is just as bad as the next and (b) maybe then can catch lightning in a bottler.

"BTW, Figueroa actually pitched extremely well for the Pirates in 2003- he was lit up in 28 ip in 2004."

His stat line may have looked superficially good, but when I watched him, he allowed a whole bunch of at-'em balls and generally hard contact. Analytically, his line there just screams BABIP fluke (I don't care how crafty you are, a .204 BABIP isn't sustainable). He was good in the minors that year, but not spectacular (the best pitcher in Nashville's rotation was probably Brian Meadows, who got the call after putting up a 1.41 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and 40/0 K/BB in eight starts).

Figueroa allowed 18 HR in 93 IP for the Brewers in 2002, and then allowed 12 HR in 63 2/3 for the Pirates in 2003/2004. That is, by any measure, excessive, and there's a long and venerable tradition of finesse pitchers getting exposed at higher levels where their stuff just isn't good enough to fool hitters. Like I said, I'm glad that Figueroa's doing well, but I don't see 8 decent innings with the Mets as some kind of proof that MLB in general and the Pirates in particular Done Him Wrong back in the day.

If you want an instructive comparison, look at the minor league record for his ex-teammate John Wasdin, another good AAA pitcher who couldn't keep it in the park once he hit the bigs.

, but when I watched him, he allowed a whole bunch of at-'em balls and generally hard contact.

Confirmation bias. That's why memory is such a very faulty thing. In other words, if we see good stuff, we remember the strikeouts. If we see a righty who doesn't throw hard, we remember the at 'em balls.

"Confirmation bias. That's why memory is such a very faulty thing. In other words, if we see good stuff, we remember the strikeouts. If we see a righty who doesn't throw hard, we remember the at 'em balls."

It'd only be confirmation bias if I went into the Figueroa experience with any particular expectations for him. Since I didn't (I was still only an embryonic baseball geek at that time, hardly following the minors at all), it's not, and you've got the causal chain backwards. I went to games, I saw him give up a bunch of hard-hit at-'em balls, and then after I learned more about stats I went back and I noticed that he had an extremely low BABIP that year (which confirmed my initial observation).

But for every Heath Bell, there are several Chip Ambres.

Well sure because Bell was better in the minors than Chip was, there will be more of the weaker player.

Ambres is a career .257/.358/.428 hitter in the minors, he's played in some bad run environments so that's not bad, maybe 10% better than average.

Bell had an ERA of 3.17 and a 544/158 k/bb ratio in 469ip- that's A LOT better than the Chip Ambres of the world.

There are a lot more career minor leaguers around sporting .257/.358/.428 lines than there are pitchers with Bell's K and BB rates.

People seem to treat "4A" guys as fungible and regard their MLB success or failure as random events.

Wasdin on the other hand does seem to be a reasonable match for Figgy, and he didn't do much in the MLB- but WAsdin was effective at times and there are worse 5th starters getting paychecks than Wasdin too.

Figueroa is a nice story but he has mediocre stuff. He pitched well against the Brewers, a right-heavy line-up, but he was helped out with a wide strike zone.

The game was also played in very poor weather, with the fog, and the heavy air knocking everything down. The last time through the order in particular, the Brewers were getting some very good swings, and his line would have looked very different on a night where Shea wasn't in need of a foghorn.

Salfino articles from last year:

"Dave Williams a late bloomer?"
"Brian Lawrence a late bloomer?"
"Guillermo Mota an innocent bystander in a steroids era gone mad?"

It'd only be confirmation bias if I went into the Figueroa experience with any particular expectations for him.

Don't we expect all small righties who don't throw hard to get his hard? I do. Be honest.

"Guillermo Mota an innocent bystander in a steroids era gone mad?"

I actually am guilty of liking Mota last year (up to a point, not nearly as long as Willie did).

Don't we expect all small righties who don't throw hard to get his hard?

That's rather a personal question. To get his what hard?

Don't we expect all small righties who don't throw hard to get his hard? I do. Be honest.

That reminds me of what one of the announcers said during a game few years ago when James Baldwin was starting, and getting hit hard, the announcer said he was surprised Baldwin was getting hit hard because Baldwin was a veteran with good stuff...

I literally did a spit take
James Baldwin
the James Baldwin?
with a career ERA over FIVE!?!?!


Baldwin looked like a pitcher, he had good scouting reports, so he got chance after chance, year after year, despite getting hit hard.
Someone like Figgy gets lit up once or twice and it's back to AAA

Don't we expect all small righties who don't throw hard to get his hard?

THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!!!

Oops. Hit.

"Don't we expect all small righties who don't throw hard to get his hard? I do. Be honest."

The first time I saw him pitch, I literally knew nothing about him except that he'd played for the Phillies and that he'd been added to the roster. He could've thrown a gyroball, and it still would've been news to me. He could've walked up and slapped me, and I wouldn't have recognized him.

100% tabula rasa.

Okay, I just looked this guy up. He looks like a pretty fungible AAAA pitcher with not-great peripherals. Is there any reason we're talking about him, other than that he pitches for the Mets?

You could read the other posts in the thread and decide for yourself.

You could read the other posts in the thread and decide for yourself.

I did, which is what led me to my comment.

I'm just wondering why he got singled out for a thread. Every year, there are at least a dozen fringy guys exactly like Figueroa who get a cup of coffee in the majors.

Is there any reason we're talking about him, other than that he pitches for the Mets?

What other reason do we need?

Every year, there are at least a dozen fringy guys exactly like Figueroa who get a cup of coffee in the majors.

Ok name them

I'm just wondering why he got singled out for a thread.

A thread? This is like the second or third Figueroa thread the past week, actually.

Ok name them

Just last year, I see -

Colter Bean
Shelley Duncan
Kevin Thompson
Howie Clark
Lee Gronkiewicz
Rob Bell
Raul Casanova
Grant Balfour

And that's just a quick look at the AL East. I'm sure that there are at least as many in every division.

Is there any reason we're talking about him, other than that he pitches for the Mets?


Is there any better reason to talk about him?

OK to be really annoying, I looked at every 27+ year old from 2003-2007 pitching in either there first or second season who had cup of coffee (defined as from 18 to 60ip)
IOW loosely looking for fringy AAAA guys

There were 90 of them
Matt Smith (ok reasonable AAAA comp for Figgy, less PT though)
Juan Padilla (ditto)
Jack Taschner (nope, Figgy much better)
Henry Owens (nope, very different profile)
Chris Sampsom (nope)
Betancourt (no see Owens)
Luke Hudson (nope, Figgy much better)
Shackelford, nope
Slaten, nope
Calero, not really, but suprisingly close...

I gotta get back to work, I don't think there are dozens identical to Figgy every year, there area handful who are close- there are not as many pitchers who can go 14-7 and 12-5 year after year in AAA as you seem to think, there certainly are not a dozen who get a cup of coffee each year.

Rob Bell has gotten more chances than Steve Howe.

Grant Balfour got hurt.

Don't know much about Colter Bean, but I do know that a lot of Yankee fans were pleading his case for a while.

Seriously though, if you can't root for Nelson Figueroa - who can you root for?

I don't think there are dozens identical to Figgy every year

Well, I didn't limit myself to pitchers, nor did I concern myself with how many games they won in the minors. And Figueroa never won as many as fourteen games in AAA, anyway.

The way people were talking about him, I was expecting to see some sort of undiscovered minor-league gem, a guy who put up sub-3 ERAs in the minors and yet was overlooked for some reason. Instead, I saw a guy who put up decent, not great, numbers in the minors, got a good shot in the majors, didn't do great, and at the moment is on a major-league roster.

This isn't exactly a new story. This is a common story, one that gets repeated over and over again. We can just as easily replace this with the story of Wilton Guerrero or Jimmy Serrano.

Seriously though, if you can't root for Nelson Figueroa - who can you root for?

I didn't say not to root for him, I'm just wondering why he's being singled out. His story is not an uncommon one.

Just last year, I see -

Colter Bean
Shelley Duncan
Kevin Thompson
Howie Clark
Lee Gronkiewicz
Rob Bell
Raul Casanova
Grant Balfour

Bean- very good minor league track record, kind of like Figggy's 1/2 the ip- really really needs to change organizations

Shelly Duncan- nope had one good year, other than that is a guy who can hit a HR every now and then.
Kevin Thompson- kind of like Duncan- or Chip Ambres
Howie Clark- kind of like Thompson- not as good
Lee Gronkiewicz- minor league closer- very different type of pitcher, but I'll give you him
Rob Bell- dude has 600+ mlb innings, busted prospect who keeps getting chances, most recent years hasn't pitched particlularly well at any level.
Raul Casanova- over 1000 MLB at bats, failed prospect, as a hitter is similar to Thompson or Ambres- but as catcher you'd think that'd be worth more
Grant Balfour- ex-prospect sporadically effective- i think he's had injury issues

Out of your list I'd say two have had a track record of minor league success similar to Figgy's, but that's just the Al East, maybe you can get up to a dozen

Instead, I saw a guy who put up decent, not great, numbers in the minors, got a good shot in the majors, didn't do great

Wasn't terrible either
Wilton was flat out terrible, couldn't field or hit, all he had was a more famous brother and a little speed career minor league obp/SLG of .352/.387 ignore his empty batting average, with his DEE he was basically league average or below in the minors- Figgy has been clearly better than league for 1300 minor league innings.

Jimmy Serrano's a better comp.

It's not that he's an undiscovered Gem, but he probably is a capable 4th/5th starter
He's pitched 150+ ip 5-6 times in the minors
His career MLB ERA+ is 91 in 269 IP

The last two years teams threw out 35 pitchers for more than 150 ip who had ERA+s worse than 91
go 100-150 ip- teams threw out 47 guys who were worse than 91 ERA+

I'm not saying he's gem or hidden star, I'm saying it's kind of puzzling that he hasn't been able to find a more secure MLB roster spot.

I'm saying it's kind of puzzling that he hasn't been able to find a more secure MLB roster spot.

Probably because he didn't pitch great in his initial call-up. Most teams, if they're looking for a fifth starter type, will use a guy who's 25, not a guy who's 30, because there's still a chance that 25-year-old will turn into something special.

Now, you want a late bloomer, look at Jeremy Guthrie.

Late, late bloomers: Dazzy Vance and Sal Maglie. (Maglie pitched in Mexico before succeeding in MLB.)

Speaking of bloomers, I wonder if Ron Bloomberg is related to NY's mayor.

late bloomers

Ron Guidry

went from being perennially awful in the minors to practically being Sandy Koufax in 2-3 years

Probably because he didn't pitch great in his initial call-up.

Probably true, you can get away with sucking in your initial call-up if you have great raw stuff (pitcher) or if a position player, you're tremendously athletic and your team has made the mistake of announcing ahead of time that you are a future star...

If you are Ken Phelps, going 0 for 8 to start the year after winning the AAA triple crown can earn you a season long demotion back to AAA.

Look at Ryan Howard, he hit .214/.267/.393 in May 2004, he was demoted, the only reason he was recalled in July was because Thome was out for the season- if Thome wasn't out, Ryan never gets recalled, and the odds are now 2-3 years later he's Alex Cabrera.

The Pirates were a good team then(1991), they must have known what they were doing right?
Wrong, they were a team which had good talent on the MLB field, but the organization itself, as 20/20 hindsight clearly shows was absolutely terrible.

The whole choosing Van Slyke over Bonds for the long-term deal pretty much takes the cake. That's almost a Ruth for money type mistake... now maybe Bonds wouldn't have signed for what the Pirates offered him, but they didn't even really try.

Speaking of bloomers, I wonder if Ron Bloomberg is related to NY's mayor.

He might be, but it is spelled Blomberg.

After tonight, I guess you all feel pretty silly doubting the next Rick Reed, Nelson Figueroa.

Johan who?

I once got a haircut next to Figueroa in Philadelphia and had no idea who he was. Then I went to the game that night and it was his first start with the Phillies where he shut the Braves down for 7+ innings, if I recall correctly, as well as laying down a key sac bunt.

After tonight, I guess you all feel pretty silly doubting the next Rick Reed, Nelson Figueroa.

Quick quiz. Which Mets' starter had these two lines in his first two outings last season?

5 8 3 3 0 3
6 8 2 2 3 6

This one.

Let's not go overboard about two nice starts by Figueroa, one of them against the worst offensive team in baseball. It's nice; don't get me wrong. Very nice. But he could as easily be the next flame-out by mid-May (second time around the league, anyone?) as he could be a valuable guy.

BTW, does anyone know when Claudio Vargas is going to make his first start for New Orleans? I am sure the Mets aren't too concerned about it right now with Figueroa earning a few more start but you'd want him to be ready sooner rather than later.

Lawrance giving up 8 hits in each start should have been a warning sign. In his two starts combined, Figueroa has only allowed five hits while pitching two more innings. Yes, small sample size and all, but I'm not quite sure the two are comparable.

We all know that Figueroa is so much better than Lawrence at controlling the outcome of balls in play

Let's not go overboard about two nice starts by Figueroa, one of them against the worst offensive team in baseball. It's nice; don't get me wrong. Very nice. But he could as easily be the next flame-out by mid-May (second time around the league, anyone?) as he could be a valuable guy.


I actually thought that Lawrence would be an average starter, but that was before I saw the 2008 Lawrence pitch. He couldn't get it above 83. 83 mph is almost impossible to live on unless you're a knuckleballer. That's when I lost hope on him.

Figueroa is different. He can get it there up to 90 with some nice bite. He can get swings and misses. I don't think that he has dominant stuff, but I also don't think that he's putting up slop out there either. Anyone who can K Zimmerman and Johnson back to back has quality stuff.

I believe in this guy.

The mets starters have looked good the last few days, but I'm terrified of what Figueroa and Pelfrey will do against lefty-heavy lineups like the Braves and Phils. Both are going to get tattooed.

Let's not go overboard about two nice starts by Figueroa, one of them against the worst offensive team in baseball. It's nice; don't get me wrong. Very nice. But he could as easily be the next flame-out by mid-May (second time around the league, anyone?) as he could be a valuable guy.

Oh, Sam. Your reticence probably cost you a chance to be a founding member of the Jason Jacome Fan Club, too.

Let's be realistic: Nelson Figueroa, though starting late, has now closed to within 503 career victories of Cy Young. I plan to be there when he passes Young in June of 2009- don't you?

Was there like a ridiculous strike zone yesterday or something? I ask, because John Lannan, he of the 16Ks in 45.1 IP before yesterday, struck out 11 batters in 6 innings yesterday too. Lannan has a pretty decent history of not being able to strike out anyone in the minors too.