Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, May 02, 2013

SoE: Normandin: Best Is Yet To Come For Bryce Harper

It’s too early in the season to make any hardcore declarations about what Harper is and isn’t doing—these things take time, you know—but we can get some ideas about possible developments from what is there. For one, Harper to this point has cut his strikeout ratio down to 15 percent, or a little less than what he produced in the high minors, rather than last year’s 20 percent of the time. It’s how he was hitting .344 entering action on Wednesday night, despite a batting average on balls in play of “only” .338. That latter figure is a lofty one, 44 points above the current league average BABIP, but unless strikeout figures are high, there tends to be some separation between standard average and BABIP’s version.

In addition, he’s boosted his walk rate from 9.4 percent to 13.1 percent. Like with strikeouts, it’s a bit early to say that he’s going to keep doing that, but you can infer that it’s likely an intentional shift by Harper: he’s seeing 4.16 pitches per plate appearance, up from last year’s already high 3.85. He was already disciplined, and seeing more major-league pitchers (and more importantly, their major-league pitches) is only going to help him improve his selectivity, and by extension, his production, as he waits for pitches he knows he can cause damage with and lays off those he cannot. His P/PA probably won’t stay that high all year, as pitchers might find a weakness and try to exploit it, but if Harper keeps hitting for power, it’s going to be difficult to outright challenge him, too.

That power is unbelievable right now, with Harper already having logged 16 extra-base hits, largely due to nine April homers. He won’t keep going yard on every third ball he hits, but he does have room to grow there: he hit a homer at about half that rate in 2012. You could easily see 30 homers out of him, or more, and you don’t even have to wait for what will likely be his peak years to see it: he’s nearly a third of the way there with over 130 games left on the schedule.

Thanks to Breen.

Repoz Posted: May 02, 2013 at 08:21 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nats

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 02, 2013 at 05:20 PM (#4432222)
In my role as young player pessimist, my desperate search for things to discourage us about Harper is coming up pretty empty. Let's see....

his baserunning value has cratered!

All of his numbers are believable except probably his HR/FB of 26%. McGwire I think was the best in "history" (it doesn't go back very far) and he had a few seasons above that but was only 22.5% for his career.

One thing I find amazing about this is that Harper has 110 PA in 27 games -- exactly 1/6 of a season. He has 1.8 WAR already. If he maintains this pace, he'll have 10.8 WAR for the year. Trout had 10.9 WAR in 2012.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 02, 2013 at 08:55 PM (#4432444)
Well he obviously took the whole, "Mike Trout is better then you are thing" very personally and decided to do something about it!
   3. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 02, 2013 at 10:50 PM (#4432567)
Well he obviously took the whole, "Mike Trout is better then you are thing" very personally and decided to do something about it!


Roids, like Bonds in '99.
   4. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 02, 2013 at 10:52 PM (#4432568)
Racist!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Guts
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogNLCS Game 5 OMNICHATTER, for October 19, 2017
(269 - 11:29pm, Oct 19)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

NewsblogDeadspin: Please Enjoy(?) 21 Years Of Joe Buck Hyping Forgotten Fox Shows
(7 - 11:27pm, Oct 19)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(373 - 11:21pm, Oct 19)
Last: don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all

NewsblogOTP 16 October 2017: Sorry, Yankee fans: Trump’s claim that he can ensure victory simply isn’t true
(1430 - 11:17pm, Oct 19)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogYankees Thumbs Down Guy is now getting his own bobblehead
(6 - 11:10pm, Oct 19)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogDo the Cubs realize how badly the Dodgers insulted them on national TV? - Chicago Tribune
(37 - 10:20pm, Oct 19)
Last: Optimistic Moses Taylor, optimist

NewsblogTV Simpsons documentary about 'Homer at the Bat' episode to air Sunday
(18 - 8:51pm, Oct 19)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogALCS Notebook: Cashman on Yankee Analytics, Luhnow on Hiring Hinch | FanGraphs Baseball
(19 - 8:45pm, Oct 19)
Last: jmurph

Sox TherapyQuestioning the Winter
(7 - 8:22pm, Oct 19)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogCubs hold off Dodgers in Game 4 of NLCS | MLB.com
(35 - 6:33pm, Oct 19)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogYankees, Masahiro Tanaka take 3-2 ALCS lead | MLB.com
(7 - 6:30pm, Oct 19)
Last: Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB)

NewsblogOT: New Season August 2017 Soccer Thread
(1170 - 6:29pm, Oct 19)
Last: Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB)

NewsblogDallas Keuchel embraces the ‘calmness’ of being Yankees killer | New York Post
(66 - 5:01pm, Oct 19)
Last: Satan Says

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-19-2017
(16 - 4:44pm, Oct 19)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogLCS OMNICHATTER for October 18, 2017
(464 - 4:04pm, Oct 19)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

Page rendered in 0.1518 seconds
47 querie(s) executed