Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, May 02, 2013

SoE: Normandin: Best Is Yet To Come For Bryce Harper

It’s too early in the season to make any hardcore declarations about what Harper is and isn’t doing—these things take time, you know—but we can get some ideas about possible developments from what is there. For one, Harper to this point has cut his strikeout ratio down to 15 percent, or a little less than what he produced in the high minors, rather than last year’s 20 percent of the time. It’s how he was hitting .344 entering action on Wednesday night, despite a batting average on balls in play of “only” .338. That latter figure is a lofty one, 44 points above the current league average BABIP, but unless strikeout figures are high, there tends to be some separation between standard average and BABIP’s version.

In addition, he’s boosted his walk rate from 9.4 percent to 13.1 percent. Like with strikeouts, it’s a bit early to say that he’s going to keep doing that, but you can infer that it’s likely an intentional shift by Harper: he’s seeing 4.16 pitches per plate appearance, up from last year’s already high 3.85. He was already disciplined, and seeing more major-league pitchers (and more importantly, their major-league pitches) is only going to help him improve his selectivity, and by extension, his production, as he waits for pitches he knows he can cause damage with and lays off those he cannot. His P/PA probably won’t stay that high all year, as pitchers might find a weakness and try to exploit it, but if Harper keeps hitting for power, it’s going to be difficult to outright challenge him, too.

That power is unbelievable right now, with Harper already having logged 16 extra-base hits, largely due to nine April homers. He won’t keep going yard on every third ball he hits, but he does have room to grow there: he hit a homer at about half that rate in 2012. You could easily see 30 homers out of him, or more, and you don’t even have to wait for what will likely be his peak years to see it: he’s nearly a third of the way there with over 130 games left on the schedule.

Thanks to Breen.

Repoz Posted: May 02, 2013 at 08:21 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nats

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 02, 2013 at 05:20 PM (#4432222)
In my role as young player pessimist, my desperate search for things to discourage us about Harper is coming up pretty empty. Let's see....

his baserunning value has cratered!

All of his numbers are believable except probably his HR/FB of 26%. McGwire I think was the best in "history" (it doesn't go back very far) and he had a few seasons above that but was only 22.5% for his career.

One thing I find amazing about this is that Harper has 110 PA in 27 games -- exactly 1/6 of a season. He has 1.8 WAR already. If he maintains this pace, he'll have 10.8 WAR for the year. Trout had 10.9 WAR in 2012.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 02, 2013 at 08:55 PM (#4432444)
Well he obviously took the whole, "Mike Trout is better then you are thing" very personally and decided to do something about it!
   3. Misirlou is too lofty, and grabs up all the light Posted: May 02, 2013 at 10:50 PM (#4432567)
Well he obviously took the whole, "Mike Trout is better then you are thing" very personally and decided to do something about it!


Roids, like Bonds in '99.
   4. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 02, 2013 at 10:52 PM (#4432568)
Racist!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JPWF13
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogLookout Landing: Ackley Traded to Yankees for Flores and Ramirez
(6 - 3:26am, Jul 31)
Last: Shibal

NewsblogOTP - July 2015: Winning the Political Game: Politics is More Like Baseball Than Football
(6082 - 3:08am, Jul 31)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - July 2015
(1703 - 1:50am, Jul 31)
Last: tshipman

NewsblogKeith Law - ESPN (Insider) - Phillies effectively reload their farm system with Cole Hamels deal
(6 - 1:41am, Jul 31)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogDodgers To Acquire Latos, Wood, Jim Johnson In 3-Team Deal; Olivera To Braves - MLB Trade Rumors
(80 - 1:33am, Jul 31)
Last: Squash

NewsblogPirates acquire Joakim Soira from Tigers | MLB.com
(4 - 1:11am, Jul 31)
Last: Petunia inquires about ponies

NewsblogTrade Chatter - 2015 Deadline
(507 - 1:08am, Jul 31)
Last: you mess with the meat you get the wada

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 7-30-2015
(116 - 12:28am, Jul 31)
Last: just plain joe

Newsblog10 Major Trades that Never Were
(5 - 12:18am, Jul 31)
Last: Dog on the sidewalk

NewsblogJon Heyman on Twitter: "carlos gomez and mike fiers go to houston"
(5 - 11:12pm, Jul 30)
Last: GrumpyFan

NewsblogLet’s make a steal | NBC SportsWorld
(10 - 10:31pm, Jul 30)
Last: Mike Webber

NewsblogBaseball Hall of Fame to eliminate some inactive voters
(68 - 10:09pm, Jul 30)
Last: Ziggy

NewsblogMets-Brewers nix deal for Carlos Gomez | MLB.com
(15 - 10:03pm, Jul 30)
Last: Bruce Markusen

NewsblogOT: Soccer June 2015
(1422 - 9:52pm, Jul 30)
Last: The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB)

NewsblogRangers Get a New Ace in Cole Hamels
(34 - 9:39pm, Jul 30)
Last: Roger McDowell spit on me!

Page rendered in 0.1644 seconds
48 querie(s) executed