Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, May 02, 2013

SoE: Normandin: Best Is Yet To Come For Bryce Harper

It’s too early in the season to make any hardcore declarations about what Harper is and isn’t doing—these things take time, you know—but we can get some ideas about possible developments from what is there. For one, Harper to this point has cut his strikeout ratio down to 15 percent, or a little less than what he produced in the high minors, rather than last year’s 20 percent of the time. It’s how he was hitting .344 entering action on Wednesday night, despite a batting average on balls in play of “only” .338. That latter figure is a lofty one, 44 points above the current league average BABIP, but unless strikeout figures are high, there tends to be some separation between standard average and BABIP’s version.

In addition, he’s boosted his walk rate from 9.4 percent to 13.1 percent. Like with strikeouts, it’s a bit early to say that he’s going to keep doing that, but you can infer that it’s likely an intentional shift by Harper: he’s seeing 4.16 pitches per plate appearance, up from last year’s already high 3.85. He was already disciplined, and seeing more major-league pitchers (and more importantly, their major-league pitches) is only going to help him improve his selectivity, and by extension, his production, as he waits for pitches he knows he can cause damage with and lays off those he cannot. His P/PA probably won’t stay that high all year, as pitchers might find a weakness and try to exploit it, but if Harper keeps hitting for power, it’s going to be difficult to outright challenge him, too.

That power is unbelievable right now, with Harper already having logged 16 extra-base hits, largely due to nine April homers. He won’t keep going yard on every third ball he hits, but he does have room to grow there: he hit a homer at about half that rate in 2012. You could easily see 30 homers out of him, or more, and you don’t even have to wait for what will likely be his peak years to see it: he’s nearly a third of the way there with over 130 games left on the schedule.

Thanks to Breen.

Repoz Posted: May 02, 2013 at 08:21 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nats

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 02, 2013 at 05:20 PM (#4432222)
In my role as young player pessimist, my desperate search for things to discourage us about Harper is coming up pretty empty. Let's see....

his baserunning value has cratered!

All of his numbers are believable except probably his HR/FB of 26%. McGwire I think was the best in "history" (it doesn't go back very far) and he had a few seasons above that but was only 22.5% for his career.

One thing I find amazing about this is that Harper has 110 PA in 27 games -- exactly 1/6 of a season. He has 1.8 WAR already. If he maintains this pace, he'll have 10.8 WAR for the year. Trout had 10.9 WAR in 2012.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 02, 2013 at 08:55 PM (#4432444)
Well he obviously took the whole, "Mike Trout is better then you are thing" very personally and decided to do something about it!
   3. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: May 02, 2013 at 10:50 PM (#4432567)
Well he obviously took the whole, "Mike Trout is better then you are thing" very personally and decided to do something about it!


Roids, like Bonds in '99.
   4. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 02, 2013 at 10:52 PM (#4432568)
Racist!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
robneyer
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-23-2014
(46 - 8:23pm, Sep 23)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - September 2014
(308 - 8:22pm, Sep 23)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogBrisbee: Adam Wainwright and the Jan Bradys of years past
(12 - 8:20pm, Sep 23)
Last: Swoboda is freedom

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(3575 - 8:18pm, Sep 23)
Last: Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman

NewsblogChad | Have a heart! Root for the Royals
(36 - 8:09pm, Sep 23)
Last: TomH

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(8058 - 8:08pm, Sep 23)
Last: A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats

NewsblogMLB creates pace of game committee
(107 - 8:03pm, Sep 23)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogMLB’s Metal Detector Policy is What ‘Terrorists Winning Looks Like’
(1 - 8:01pm, Sep 23)
Last: Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame)

NewsblogHBT: Talking head says Jeter is “a fraud” and “you are all suckers”
(267 - 7:55pm, Sep 23)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogOT August 2014:  Wrassle Mania I
(222 - 7:47pm, Sep 23)
Last: NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!)

NewsblogMets near extension with GM Alderson
(41 - 7:40pm, Sep 23)
Last: Captain Supporter

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-23-2014
(9 - 7:04pm, Sep 23)
Last: Eric J can SABER all he wants to

NewsblogGene Collier: No shame in staying home for Pirates
(16 - 6:54pm, Sep 23)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogCalcaterra: If Bobby Cox has anything to say about it, Fredi Gonzalez will manage the Braves for a long time
(21 - 6:39pm, Sep 23)
Last: Arch Stanton

NewsblogOld Cuban stars don’t begrudge ballplayers who defect - The Boston Globe
(3 - 6:33pm, Sep 23)
Last: Perry

Page rendered in 0.2157 seconds
52 querie(s) executed