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Friday, May 22, 2009

Some Fun With The Favorite Toy

Johnny Damon with 3,000 hits? Adam Dunn with 700 home runs? It’s all possible….

Who knew Johnny Damon might have a legitimate chance to 3,000 hits? Not me. I was surprised to see his name so high on the active leader board, and had no idea that he was already over 2,300 hits. Off to a hot start this year, in what looks like a great hitters’ park, we will have to revisit him after this season and see how he has been affected. But Damon is clearly an underrated ballplayer.

vegasman2000 Posted: May 22, 2009 at 04:10 PM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 22, 2009 at 04:47 PM (#3188945)

Damon may be knocking the crap out of the ball, but he's clearly lost some athleticism over the past couple of years. He looks bad in the field. I don't think he's going to be able to stick long enough.

Jeter at a 97% chance to get 3,000. Man, I can't wait.

2. JoeHova Posted: May 22, 2009 at 04:56 PM (#3188956)

Jeter at a 97% chance to get 3,000. Man, I can't wait.

It doesn't really matter because I don't think the media can possibly fawn over him anymore than they already do. Perhaps I'll be surprised though.

3. JPWF13

Posted: May 22, 2009 at 04:58 PM (#3188963)

But Damon is clearly an underrated ballplayer.

No he isn't.

He has a lot of hits through age 35 (55th all time hits through age 35) because:

1: He got an early start
2: He's been an everyday player since day 1 and he's durable
3: He's batted mostly lead-off so plenty of PAs- 46th all time through age 35 (But will be 25th or so after this year is over)
4: He's been a pretty good (not great) hitter, who gets hits. (He's also better than his career OPS+ he's had a habit of playing through injuries- which means every now and then he tosses out a barely above replacement level season with the bat, as a hitter he's about like Lou Brock...

4. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:13 PM (#3188976)

It doesn't really matter because I don't think the media can possibly fawn over him anymore than they already do.

I don't really care about the media. Unlike most people here apparently, I'm able to tune out crap I'm not interested in. I can't wait to see the guy who has been my favorite ballplayer for more than a decade get his 3,000th hit.

5. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:15 PM (#3188979)

Jeter 3000 doesn't excite me since it's seemed all but a lock for years. Now can he limp his way to 4000? That's what I wanna see.

6. fra paolo Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:19 PM (#3188988)

I've been playing around with Brock2 to do some projections for the AL in 1968, and I found that a few years into his career Brock2 was projecting FRobby to hit over 800 home runs. I should do a blog entry about the season where that projection fell by the board.

7. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3188991)

His calculations are screwy. I get Damon with a 6% chance for 3000, A-Rod at 60%, Jeter at 88%. Those are the only ones I checked.

8. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:23 PM (#3188998)

Part of the difference can be what age you are using. Did he use their age last season, this season? For a calculation through '08 I use an off-season age as of Jan 1 '09 (e.g. Jeter was 34.5 years old). Still, I don't think the numbers should change that much.

9. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:26 PM (#3189005)

I just redid Damon and now I get 13%. Maybe I've just gone daft today. Still, not close to his number.

10. JoeHova Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:36 PM (#3189019)

I can't wait to see the guy who has been my favorite ballplayer for more than a decade get his 3,000th hit.

My mistake. I assumed you were being sarcastic. 3,000 hits is always fun though.

11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 22, 2009 at 05:58 PM (#3189052)

I can't wait to see the guy who has been my favorite ballplayer for more than a decade get his 3,000th hit.

2722, which would pass Gehrig as the Yankee career hit leader, might be about as big a deal and could come near the end of this season.

12. puck Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:08 PM (#3189074)

Damon may be knocking the crap out of the ball, but he's clearly lost some athleticism over the past couple of years. He looks bad in the field.

Wow, fangraphs has him at -4.8 runs in LF this year. Has he slowed that much?

13. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:21 PM (#3189095)

2722, which would pass Gehrig as the Yankee career hit leader, might be about as big a deal and could come near the end of this season.

Somehow--even though I saw his 2000th hit in person, and that was early 2006, I didn't realize he was so close to Gehrig. It will be fun to see how close he comes this year.

14. CraigK Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:28 PM (#3189110)

Huh. No Yankee's gotten 3000 hits for the team? I wouldn't have guessed that.

15. Famous Original Joe C Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:48 PM (#3189134)

Wow, fangraphs has him at -4.8 runs in LF this year. Has he slowed that much?

Fangraphs is awesome, but 4.8? We're really that sure of the Johnny Damon's fielding through seven weeks we need to slip that decimal in?

/Meta-commentary over, continue favorite toying

16. Delorians Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3189136)

Huh. No Yankee's gotten 3000 hits for the team? I wouldn't have guessed that.

Actually, no member of the 3,000 hit club has gotten even a majority of his hits with the Yanks. Winfield had a plurality with NY, and of the rest, only Henderson and Boggs spent any significant playing time in pinstripes.

17. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:51 PM (#3189141)

Actually, only 13 players have had 3000 hits for one team. Care to guess?

18. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:57 PM (#3189148)

Yaz
Cobb
Aaron
Waner

that's a start, I think

Edit: Rose, duh
Edit: Clemente
Edit: Mays

I'll settle for most, if'n I ain't goofed on one

19. DK near DC Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3189150)

Ripken
Mays
Murray?

Edit: Wagner

20. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3189153)

Cobb
Mays
Aaron
Musial
Rose
Wagner
Waner
Yount
Gwynn
Biggio
Yastrzemski
Kaline
not sure if Anson counts, I seem to remember his hit total is disputed

21. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3189154)

Oh, Clemente, thanks Dr. Memory

22. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3189155)

Weiters.

23. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3189156)

Oh, Ripken too. Then I messed one up. Probably Waner, I wasn't sure if he had 3000.

24. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3189165)

Anson, according to B-R, only had 2,997 in Chicago

Waner & Wagner are also incorrect - Wagner started out in Louisville, and Waner bounced around after he left the Pirates.

The others are all correct, you're still one short.

25. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:07 PM (#3189167)

Missed the Murray answer from DK, that's also incorrect.

26. DK near DC Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:08 PM (#3189170)

Brett

27. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3189174)

Brett is it, of course.

28. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:14 PM (#3189178)

Yup, that's it. Among the "Original 16" teams, the Yankees are 13th in most hits by a single player, although well ahead of the bottom 3 - Philly (Schmidt, 2234), Cleveland (Lajoie, 2046), and Oakland (Camapaneris, 1882)

29. SandyRiver Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:25 PM (#3189198)

Took 3 posts for someone to remember The Man, though he's #2 behind Cobb (just ahead of Henry) in hits for one team.

30. DK near DC Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:30 PM (#3189208)

#28 Are you missing the Dodgers? Or am I?

31. Shock Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:34 PM (#3189214)

Oakland (Camapaneris, 1882)

Damn. Too bad about Eric Chavez.

32. Kiko Sakata

Posted: May 22, 2009 at 07:36 PM (#3189218)

#28 Are you missing the Dodgers? Or am I?

Zack Wheat: 2,804 hits as a Brooklyn Dodger

33. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 22, 2009 at 08:57 PM (#3189364)

Well, FWIW, Damon is a breath of fresh air, and I take that into consideration when evaluating a player (yes, skills and output are OBVIOUSLY MORE IMPORTANT, but that doesn't mean that quirky, fun characters don't get some extra credit in my book).

34. cardsfanboy

Posted: May 22, 2009 at 09:28 PM (#3189422)

I love how Edgar Renteria seems to get ignored on these things.

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 4.5 more years, at an average of 151.8 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 2753.3 for his career. He has a 23.5 percent chance to reach 3000.

that is using his age as 33

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 5 more years, at an average of 151.8 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 2829.2 for his career. He has a 31.6 percent chance to reach 3000.

that is using his age as 32 (last season numbers, doesn't include his 31 hits from this season)

35. phredbird

Posted: May 22, 2009 at 09:35 PM (#3189434)

i was wondering if anybody was going to mention edgar. he started so young, he can't help but make it if he can keep a job.

36. Walt Davis Posted: May 22, 2009 at 09:40 PM (#3189441)

Favorite toy? Is this the UFO thread?

37. Obama Bomaye Posted: May 22, 2009 at 09:55 PM (#3189473)

he can't help but make it if he can keep a job.

Well, yeah, but no ####. His bat hasn't woken up back in the minor league, he's no longer much of a SS...how long is it likely he'll keep a job?

38. john printer Posted: May 23, 2009 at 12:43 PM (#3190293)

He nice article. I'm looking forward to jeter's 3,000 too

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Some Fun With The Favorite Toy

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