bump

Obviously judging this deal won't really be possible without hearing the terms.

ARam can sure hit. He's 33, and has had injury issues. It's a gamble.

He won't replace Fielder's offense, but he's a better 3B than they've had in years.

The Brewers got something like NEGATIVE 2 wins from third base this year. Their inability to find anyone to provide even mediocre production should--I think--be considered when judging this signing (once the dollar amounts are released).

I'm guessing it's around $40MM?

Good for the Brewers that they managed to keep it at three years.

This is a terrible move by the Brewers.

Oh don't get me wrong, Ramirez is a fine player who should help the team but some of Harvey's rants about Casey McGeehe go beyond "ranting" and into "art" and I'm going to miss that.

Huh… he did… and totally deserved it. Whaddaya know.

Ramirez: .306/.361/.510, 136 OPS+, 4.5 oWar
Sandoval: .315/.357/.552, 153 OPS+, 4.6 oWar

Not totally, in this Giants' fan's opinion.

Not totally, in this Giants' fan's opinion.

If Sandoval had stayed healthy (and kept up the same production), he likely would have won. But in the end he missed too much time.

Good idea. Gamel plays first now?

I have this projected as a poor bet in pure $$/win terms. I think a case can be made that the weakness of the 3B market, the extreme need of the Brewers, and the closing window on their core advocate for overpaying for a vet like Ramirez. There's also a case to be made that Ramirez' execrable 2010 should be discounted in the course of projections - it's surrounded by an extremely consistent record of elite hitting for a 3B, so maybe it was caused by injury or something that should be projected to recur. Nonetheless, the dumber-than-Marcel projection for Ramirez:

+11 Bat -3 Run +16 Rep +1 Pos -7 Def = +18 RAR, 3 years / $20M

So this is a bit more than he projects to be worth, based on some simple weighting and regressing of past value numbers.

And I'll miss Ramirez - he'll go down as the best Cub third baseman since Santo. He never really got the hang of the fielding, but he could sure hit. If you throw out 2010, he never had a season with the Cubs with an OPS under .871, and he averaged about 4 oWAR a year.

I look forward to the coming of the next parade of Gary Scotts and Kevin Ories.

Matt

I am in the minority of wanting to give third base to Green and letting the kid sink or swim.

The Brewers are now very right-handed in the lineup, hence my affinity for Green at third.

What DOES concern me is that instead of going with Gamel the Brewers give CASEY a shot at first which would defy explanation.

But Doug tends to be very loyal and of course Ron is like almost all managers and favors the vets.

I shudder at the thought.

Ramirez is a fine player who should help the team but some of Harvey's rants about Casey McGeehe go beyond "ranting" and into "art" and I'm going to miss that.

Fangraphs speculated that, at least with Braun out, you might see McGehee at 1B and Gamel in LF. Sounds utterly insane to me, but who knows.

As a follow up, I am somewhat concerned that the Brewers are letting themselves get OLD.

Gonzalez is old. Ramirez is old.

I am somewhat uneasy.

Random weird fact:

Making the safe assumption that his time as a Cub is now done, Aramis Ramirez will hold the franchise record for the most PA despite never having a SH. (Well, that's from 1894-onward. SH didn't become a stat until 1894).

4,705 PA. That tops Leon Durham's old team record of 0 SH in 3,659 PA.

Would Milwaukee have Ramirez play first? He is getting older, isn't a good fielder, and they have a hole at first now.

Anyone ever participate in one of those stupid corporate sponsored team building events where they do stuff like walk rope ladders or across hot coals in their bare feet? Where the employee knows they have to do this to keep their job but my gosh they would rather be doing what they are actually paid to do? They are both anxious and peeved because they don't know what will happen, they are concerned they will be humiliated but fear the repercussions of NOT playing along.

That is Mat Gamel chasing fly balls.

He does it. Kind of. But boy would he rather be hitting. And it shows when he's chasing the fly ball.......

The Cubs haven't had a consistently productive 3Bman since Aramis Ramirez.

MLBTR has the contract in the $34-37M range, per Rosenthal.

BTW, is it "Uh-rahm-iss" or "a-ruh-miss" with a a like in flat.

...stuff like walk rope ladders or across hot coals in their bare feet?

I've done this one. People don't seem to believe me when I tell them though. Stupid Anthony Robbins seminar 20 years ago.

There was an odd amount of underachievement at 3B last year. Zimmerman, Wright, Longoria, ARod and Beltre all hit well, but not as well as they're capable of.

EDIT: OK, I missed that Beltre had a nutso second half. It was his third best season. Longoria was also better than I remembered.

20 - I've always pronounced it "Air amiss", and I've usually heard that way.

20 - I've always pronounced it "Air amiss", and I've usually heard that way.

OK, that's what my 2nd option was meant to be. You spelled it better.

BTW, is it "Uh-rahm-iss" or "a-ruh-miss" with a a like in flat.

We go with the first one

BTW, is it "Uh-rahm-iss" or "a-ruh-miss" with a a like in flat.

We go with the first one

Stress on the RAHM part in Chicago.

BTW, is it "Uh-rahm-iss" or "a-ruh-miss" with a a like in flat.

Wiki has it as "a-RAHM-is" with the a sounding like Rosa

20 - I've always pronounced it "Air amiss", and I've usually heard that way.

I can honestly say I've never heard it that way. I've always heard it as "uh-RAHM-iss" on Cub broadcasts.

Edit: beverage to jacksone.

So 3/34-37?

I guess he got more years and total security, but what was the option he turned down? I think it was upwards of 16 mil, no?

I enjoyed Aramis' time in Chicago and would like to point out that the contract many people didn't like at the time seemed to turn out pretty good for Chicago.

Given that the team was clearly heading into a trough in the success cycle (FWIW when using that terms with the Cubs), I'm perfectly happy to let him walk.

I suppose he's no less healthy than Scott Rolen around the same age, but I do think it's worrying when you have a 34 yo who seems to be terminally gimpy. I mean - he missed relatively significant time in 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010 - and he seems to always have a tender hammy or groin.

I'm not saying he's a malingerer, I'm just saying that he's far from an iron man and I would expect the health to continue to slide, not improve.

The only time I've heard it pronounced "AIR amiss" was from (I want to say) John Miller.

I'll miss Aramis. He could be a frustrating player with what appeared to be a lethargic approach to the game at times. He's the kind of player who will almost always have some sort of nagging injury that persists throughout a season and causes him to miss games here or there. Yet for the talk about how unstoppable Soriano was when he got on one of his (now rare) hot streaks, Aramis was the guy on the team who wowed me the most when he was hot. Cranking balls out of the park, splitting gaps, and smacking hard singles. It was a joy to watch him when he was on.

And though I pronounced his bat dead the last two seasons after horrid starts, he eventually did a 180 both times to finish with a respectable offensive campaign. It won't be easy to see him in a new uniform, but I hope the Wrigley fans give him a standing ovation when he comes to the plate for the first time in that Brewer uniform.

For folks who consider this a poor deal by the Crew note that his agent was pushing for five years and supposedly Melvin told him 3 or forget it.

No idea on what else was out there for Ramirez.

If it's in the 3/35 range I actually think it's shockingly reasonable and wouldn't have minded the Cubs doing that.

I know the Tigers were rumored to be real interested in him, as were the Angels. Once the Angels did their wheeling and dealing last week, though, I suspect it was either Detroit or Milwaukee.

e only time I've heard it pronounced "AIR amiss" was from (I want to say) John Miller.

Air-amiss is the generally accepted pronunciation for the Musketeer. So without knowing beforehand how to pronounce it, it's not surprising to hear people pronounce it that way.

If I would have had to go through all that about how to pronounce his name, I would have taken Athos or Porthos instead.

If it's in the 3/35 range I actually think it's shockingly reasonable and wouldn't have minded the Cubs doing that.

I wonder if it's a case of over-estimating how many teams would be in the hunt for him. Or maybe he just genuinely wants to play for a contender.

At any rate, I wonder where this leaves Detroit. They had a lot of money come off the books after 2011 and they haven't really done anything other than re-sign Santiago and sign Dotel. They've got a hole at third still, unless they plan to move Peralta to third and Santiago to short.

Well, there you go, folks. That's why you shouldn't listen to AL fans about how words are pronounced on NL broadcasts!

If it's in the 3/35 range I actually think it's shockingly reasonable and wouldn't have minded the Cubs doing that.

I don't know if I'd say shockingly reasonable, but it isn't terrible. It certainly has a degree of risk, as Ramirez is fairly injury prone and entering an age where he could tank at any point anyway.

I am happy to see the Cubs err on the side of letting their veterans walk away, even if it means short-term decline in production. Out with the old, in with the new, whatever that might be.

It certainly has a degree of risk, as Ramirez is fairly injury prone and entering an age where he could tank at any point anyway.

Agreed, but while 3/35 isn't chump change it also isn't a deal that would have hamstrung the organization even if he had tanked from day 1.

I am happy to see the Cubs err on the side of letting their veterans walk away, even if it means short-term decline in production. Out with the old, in with the new, whatever that might be.

I agree with this too, and I don't think it's any kind of major blunder that the Cubs let him get away or anything. But if they had done it, I'd have been OK with it.

Out with the old, in with the new, whatever that might be.

More strikeouts, most likely.

Quick math

Yuni was a cipher. Third base was a cipher.

So Ramirez and Gonzalez are 3-4 wins better than garbage.

Assuming Braun out for 50 games that's a loss of say 2 wins?

No Prince so that's a loss of say 4 given Fielder's history?

full years from Zack and Rickie. That's a in a win each.

So minus 6 plus 3.5 plus 2.

Not really treading water but the Brewers could still get to 88 wins give or take.

I am happy to see the Cubs err on the side of letting their veterans walk away, even if it means short-term decline in production. Out with the old, in with the new, whatever that might be.

Agreed. And I'm sorry to see him go. I agree with Walks in 30 - when he was on, he was on. He sure felt "clutch" when the Cubs were going good.

His walk-off against Francisco Cordero in 2007 is still one of my fondest Cub memories.

If I would have had to go through all that about how to pronounce his name, I would have taken Athos or Porthos instead.

"It's pronounced 'Port-hose' not 'Porth-ohs'!"

"It's pronounced 'Port-hose' not 'Porth-ohs'!"

If it's good enough for Oliver Platt, it's good enough for me.

I'll miss Aramis, but it was probably his time to leave (at least in terms of where I want the organization). I always did like him a lot, though. Great hitter.

I think port hoes are best avoided.

ARam had a heck of a run with the Cubs and I'm sad to see him go. Durability a concern but I am guessing the bat will age pretty well since he hasn't entered his "old man" phase yet -- still high BA, low Ks, moderate BB. If the bat slows, he can still switch to more of a rake and take approach and end up with pretty similar OBP/SLG numbers. He's kind of a slow Molitor -- and with similar durability records through age 33 ... then over the last 8 years of his career, Molitor averaged 650 PA per! (and that includes 94-95)*

Still, I'd rather have at least the option of moving him to 1B/DH.

* I suppose the Molitor comp looks like exaggeration but ARam is a hard guy to put a finger on. Whether it was the Pirates' ineptitude or Baker's aptitude (he is good with hitters, perhaps especially of this type), ARam became a different hitter at 26.

ARam through 25: 263/312/441, 92 OPS+, 411 K, 145 BB in 2508 PA
ARam 26-33: 297/359/533, 127 OPS+, 547 K, 356 BB in 4450 PA
Molitor 26-33: 301/366/446, 124 OPS+, 482 K, 396 BB in 4241 PA

Of course ARam is unlikely to match Molitor going forward -- Molitor "peaked" from 34 to 37 and had more PA 34-41 than 26-33 -- but ARam is no slouch. Granted, HW and I are the charter (and only) members of the "ARam has a shot at the HoF" club so it's no accident I'm bringing up an HoFer as a comp.

That said, I am somewhat surprised and disappointed to report that, to the extent I can isolate hitters similar to ARam in P-I over ages 26-33, they don't seem to have aged particularly well as a group. Lots of 2B and 3B cliff-divers and Rice, Justice, Lynn, Garvey, Hendrick, Cepeda, Sweeney. The most promising and realistic comps are Fisk, Moises Alou and Hal McRae. (Note, some of those "bad" comps aren't bad comps in terms of the Brewers contract, many were pretty good and certainly non-disastrous through 36.)

What I find most interesting about that group is that none of them stand out as guys who shifted to an "old man" hitting model. Fisk comes close but he still hit 285 at 42 and never K'd much! So my initial theory about why I think he might age well as a hitter may have no basis in reality ... darn.

I think port hoes are best avoided

Lot lizards also.

I think port hoes are best avoided.

A ho in every port?

Out with the old, in with the new, whatever that might be.

It means Ian Stewart for 3 years instead of Aramis Ramirez. That isn't really a trade off I find appealing.

McGehee traded to the Pirates.

It means Ian Stewart for 3 years instead of Aramis Ramirez. That isn't really a trade off I find appealing.

Except that isn't the tradeoff; it's Stewart for two years (right?), plus the money you're saving by paying Stewart at or near the league minimum instead of paying Ramirez 12MM per for 3 years.

That said, I'll miss Aramis, and wish him well, despite his going to a division rival. Except when he's facing the Cubs, of course.

EDIT: Cokes as needed, on the last part...

Except that isn't the tradeoff; it's Stewart for two years (right?), plus the money you're saving by paying Stewart at or near the league minimum instead of paying Ramirez 12MM per for 3 years.

...plus draft pick compensation.

KOYIE HILL NON-TENDERED!!

Good point, Pops...

I can't believe the Brewers got such a friendly contract after the Braun blow up. I thought for sure that would get Ramirez his 4th year, or a pretty good buyout. We don't know the terms for sure yet, so there's a caveat in all this. But this looks like the piece they needed at the price they needed.

Except that isn't the tradeoff; it's Stewart for two years (right?), plus the money you're saving by paying Stewart at or near the league minimum instead of paying Ramirez 12MM per for 3 years.

...plus draft pick compensation.



Okay, processes information. . . . That isn't a trade off I find appealing.


The draft pick isn't going to amount to anything, the money saved means nothing, and the Cubs are not going to replace ARam's production. They've gotten cheaper and worse. I'm sure some like it because it smells of sabermetric mantras but it doesn't actually help the Cubs win more ballgames now or in the future.

The draft pick isn't going to amount to anything, the money saved means nothing, and the Cubs are not going to replace ARam's production. They've gotten cheaper and worse. I'm sure some like it because it smells of sabermetric mantras but it doesn't actually help the Cubs win more ballgames now or in the future.

In your heart of hearts, do you miss Jim Hendry?

Or maybe, McCoy, some of us like it because it's more indicative of plan not focused on short-term competitive mediocrity than we're used to seeing around these parts.

In your heart of hearts, do you miss Jim Hendry?

Kind of like the abused ex-wife who marries the parson.

Or maybe, McCoy, some of us like it because it's more indicative of plan not focused on short-term competitive mediocrity than we're used to seeing around these parts.

So it is a plan based on long-term mediocrity?

In your heart of hearts, do you miss Jim Hendry?

No, but nothing Theo and Co have done so far this offseason has made me think they are trying to make the team better short term or long term.

So it is a plan based on long-term mediocrity?

You really think paying premium for Aramis Ramirez's mid-30s seasons is a good idea for a team in the Cubs' position?

You really think paying premium for Aramis Ramirez's mid-30s seasons is a good idea for a team in the Cubs' position?

What is the Cubs' position? It is a 3 year deal not a 10 year deal. The Cubs are a large market team with loads of money coming off the books. How does Aram's contract hurt the Cubs in the short term or the long term?

Brewers got a good deal, and with the interleague games interspersed through the year, they will get many chances to rest him.

Ian Stewart reminds me of Mark Bellhorn, a poor man's version!

Saying the draft pick isn't going to amount to anything is pretty darn pessimistic. Under the new CBA, draft picks are more valuable to have because they're harder to get. You can't hoard Type B guys anymore, or Type A relievers. And a weak system like the Cubs, you need every draft pick you can get from here on out. And maybe Ian Stewart stinks up the joint, but Theo is trying to create value; it's not impossible Stewart hits 30 HRs between the next season and half and is attractive trade bait at the 2013 deadline.

But yeah dude I can sympathize with not wanting to watch Ian Stewart play third base for the next couple years.

I remember the day, almost 10 years ago, when I realized I was a true baseball fanatic. I recognized Mark Bellhorn by his home run trot.

I assume Aramis was a type A, no? Given that K-Rod screwed the Brewers so they probably can't afford any other type A's - seems to me the Cubs ought to be in line for a 1st rounder then.

Aramis was a type B.

This seems like a pretty good year to be the Reds in the NL Central. Cardinals lose Pujols, Cubs rebuilding, Brewers seem to be treading water, the Pirates are the Pirates, and the Astros are hanging around for another year too.

Saying the draft pick isn't going to amount to anything is pretty darn pessimistic.

How many needles have the Cubs found? How many has Theo found? Clay Buchholz? Most picks never amount to much.

And a weak system like the Cubs, you need every draft pick you can get from here on out.

I don't agree. The Cubs are a large market team. They don't need to build a team from the ground up. Secondly building a team from the ground up is going to at least take 5 years before it starts paying serious dividends and that isn't even a sure thing. I'm not prepared for the Cubs to be really bad for 5 years so the Cubs can get high draft picks and then maybe have them start to be good in 2018.


And maybe Ian Stewart stinks up the joint, but Theo is trying to create value;

Why try to create it when you can simply buy it?

I'm not prepared for the Cubs to be really bad for 5 years

You are a Cubs fan, right?

What is the Cubs' position? It is a 3 year deal not a 10 year deal. The Cubs are a large market team with loads of money coming off the books. How does Aram's contract hurt the Cubs in the short term or the long term?

Doesn't mean they need to spend that money on a multi-year to keep Aramis around.

I see where you're coming from, but if the Cubs aren't expecting to contend in 2012 and possibly 2013, then what's the point in sinking money into re-upping Aramis?

then what's the point in sinking money into re-upping Aramis?

So then why does it matter either way? Ricketts isn't going to cut me a check for the money they saved by having Ian Stewart man third base instead Aramis so I don't really care if they save money or waste it. All I really care about is them putting the best players they can out there. ARam's contract was something they could afford now and it would also not hurt them later. All Ian Stewart can be is a non-entity.

but if the Cubs aren't expecting to contend in 2012 and possibly 2013

And I have a problem with this. If the Cubs plan on simply clearing contracts there is no real reason to expect them to be good in 2014. The farm system will not be ready and they can sign a whole team via FA in one offseason. Plus waiting to make moves in the FA market two years from now is not a smart move. You can't plan to build a better future starting in the future. You have to plan to build a better future today.

They've gotten cheaper and worse. I'm sure some like it because it smells of sabermetric mantras but it doesn't actually help the Cubs win more ballgames now or in the future.

I'm willing to give management the benefit of the doubt that they are hoarding cash and will explode when the time is right like the Marlins.

Aramis was a type B.

Good Lord!. If a guy who hits .306/26/93 and wins the silver slugger is a type B, who is a type A?

Good Lord!. If a guy who hits .306/26/93 and wins the silver slugger is a type B, who is a type A?

If his 2010 season didn't happen he would have been a Type A.


I'm willing to give management the benefit of the doubt that they are hoarding cash and will explode when the time is right like the Marlins.


They have the money right now to "explode" like the Marlins.

They have the money right now to "explode" like the Marlins.

The Cubs could have signed Reyes, Bell, Buhrle, Wilson, and Pujols? That's, $33 mil for the first three, plus $40 mil for the next 2, plus $63 mil they are on the hook for Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster, Marmol, and Byrd. That's $139 mil for 12 players.

When I said that I am fine with the Cubs letting Ramirez walk, I didn't mean that I am glad to see him go. I doubt that the Cubs will get production at 3B in 2012 that exceeds what Ramirez does in Milwaukee. It's well within the possibility, but unlikely.

And Ramirez was quite a player for the Cubs -- in fact, I think the relative lack of reaction to it is interesting, in that it reflects an attitude among Cubs fans that it is time to move on. Ramirez hit .294/.356/.531 as a Cub, and his 239 HR are good enough for sixth on the all-time list. He hit more HR as a Cub than Gabby Hartnett. In a nine year period where the Cubs made the playoffs three times, he was one of, if not the most productive hitter on those teams.

But still, I think the Cubs need to put the 2000s behind them, a period where the team saw some success, but a lot of disappointment and brouhaha. It's tempting to paint a picture of Ramirez as a lollygagger, or to emphasize his horrible performances in the 2007 and 2008 playoffs, but it's really not about that. I'm not saying the Cubs should dump everyone on the roster, but when it comes down to choosing whether or not to sign a guy for multiple years in his mid-30s, I prefer to see them take a pass. Use that money to invest in a fresh face, if not this year, then some time in the next few.

The Cubs could have signed Reyes, Bell, Buhrle, Wilson, and Pujols? That's, $33 mil for the first three, plus $40 mil for the next 2, plus $63 mil they are on the hook for Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster, Marmol, and Byrd. That's $139 mil for 12 players.

Are you suggesting that isn't possible?

Use that money to invest in a fresh face, if not this year, then some time in the next few.

I got no problem with the first part (except it looks like they won't be doing that) but I disagree with the second part. The money they saved by not signing Aramis doesn't sit in a vault somewhere waiting to be used. Nobody making decisions thinks that because they saved 34 million dollars by not signing Aramis they can then spend 34 million dollars more in 2015. If they don't spend the money today it doesn't exist tomorrow.

The Cubs could have signed Reyes, Bell, Buhrle, Wilson, and Pujols? That's, $33 mil for the first three, plus $40 mil for the next 2, plus $63 mil they are on the hook for Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster, Marmol, and Byrd. That's $139 mil for 12 players.

Are you suggesting that isn't possible?

Yes. Those 12 players represent 1B, SS, LF, CF, 4 SP and 2 RP. OK, maybe they don't sign Bell. But still, I don't see them spending $160-$170 mil on payroll anytime soon.

If they don't spend the money today it doesn't exist tomorrow.

lol wut

lol wut

This is really a hard concept for you to figure out?

Yes. Those 12 players represent 1B, SS, LF, CF, 4 SP and 2 RP. OK, maybe they don't sign Bell. But still, I don't see them spending $160-$170 mil on payroll anytime soon.

The Marlins didn't get all those players. Getting Reyes, Buehrle, and Pujols could have been possible and it is something the Cubs could have done. Secondly the Cubs have a ton of money coming off the books after this year. There is nothing stopping the Cubs from structuring it so that a player gets less money this year in return for more money after this year.

If they don't spend the money today it doesn't exist tomorrow.

lol wut

This is really a hard concept for you to figure out?

Yes, unless I'm completely misunderstanding what you're saying. You're saying money that's saved now can't be applied to a future budget?

So you focused on the last sentence and ignored the sentence right before it to come up with a "can't" instead of a "won't"?

I'll say it again, nobody looks at the "savings" of not signing Aramis as something that can be applied to the budget 4 years from now. Same way as nobody takes a 50 million dollar profit one year and then doesn't mind a 50 million dollar loss the next year.

So, if the Rockies were willing to spend $31.5 on Cuddyer, perhaps they should have gotten in on Ramirez, though perhaps their interest only would have served to push the price up.

Ramirez is a year older than Cuddyer but with a better track record with the bat, and 3rd is far more of a weakness than either corner OF spot. The Rockies' 3rd basemen were probably even less productive than the Brewers' in 2010 w/the park adjustments (.629 OPS to .598).