Baseball is truly broken if the Yankees can't afford free agents.

Who will get A-Rod? Manchester United? My "Baseball Stars" team when I rig it so that I get the most money?

Wow.

I think that headline should be "Yankees more than $100M Short of Entertaining ARod; Boras a Few Knives Short of a Drawer"

My "Baseball Stars" team when I rig it so that I get the most money?

ha..have the Lovely Ladies or American dreams hit your guys in till it's 10-0 and collect the big money! They really need to remake that game.

No matter how good your team was, the Dreams would always house your guys on automatic season mode.

As Aaron Freeman once said on the dearly departed "Metropolis", "If you don't hear 'no' five times a day, you aren't asking for enough."

an offer of at least $350 million, sources say.

Ah, but he didn't say for how many years. That could be a 20 year contract he's seeking.

4.
Step 1. You obviously have to create a dummy team with all "Prestige".
Step 2. Beat dummy team 10-0.
Step 3. Profit.

And yes, that game needs to be remade. They did release an updated version on the Neo-Geo system (which was IIRC about $700 when it came out...dating self). I loved being able to dive and actually rob HR's.

"The Yankees had hoped to meet with Rodriguez this week, and would have presented him with an extension offer close to five years and $150 million, to begin at the conclusion of his 2008-2010 contract, through which he would have earned $81 million. Through the Yankees' proposal, then, Rodriguez would have made about $230 million over eight years, and during the last five years of the contract, sources say, he would have earned the highest annual salary in Major League Baseball history."

If that account is true, then it seems to me that the Yankees were willing to make a competitive, good-faith effort to retain A-Rod. Which is of course precisely the perception that whoever leaked the details of the deal wanted to create.

Fernando Alonzo has officially left McLaren. I think A-Rod is going there...

If that account is true, then it seems to me that the Yankees were willing to make a competitive, good-faith effort to retain A-Rod. Which is of course precisely the perception that whoever leaked the details of the deal wanted to create.

Bingo. The Yanks are in full spin mode. Believe nothing you read from Olney or Heyman unless it comes from an official source and other outlets are reporting it as well.

RODRGZ?

Fernando Alonzo has officially left McLaren. I think A-Rod is going there...

Well, with Lewis Hamilton as a teammate, he'd certainly learn another thing or two about choking.

I'll be here all night, folks.

Bingo. The Yanks are in full spin mode. Believe nothing you read from Olney or Heyman unless it comes from an official source and other outlets are reporting it as well.

My thoughts exactly.

Sources: Yankees more than $100M short of entertaining A-Rod

She-male lap dances must be more expensive than they thought.

Bingo. The Yanks are in full spin mode. Believe nothing you read from Olney or Heyman unless it comes from an official source and other outlets are reporting it as well.


Nope. The Yankees' planned extension offer was reported in the NY papers at least 24 hours before the diva opted out.

Nope. The Yankees' planned extension offer was reported in the NY papers at least 24 hours before the diva opted out.

But not that Boras demanded they bring 350 million to the table even to start negotiating.

What? If A-Rod's worth three hundred fifty mothergoddamnfucking MILLION, what's Santana gonna get? The New York Stock Exchange?

If Boras was asking for $350M and the Yankees offered $150/5, that's not really a serious attempt to negotiate.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall during the Boras/Cashman discussions. There's a lot of posturing and we'll never really know what happened. Only who ended up with the best results.

If that account is true, then it seems to me that the Yankees were willing to make a competitive, good-faith effort to retain A-Rod. Which is of course precisely the perception that whoever leaked the details of the deal wanted to create.

Bingo. The Yanks are in full spin mode. Believe nothing you read from Olney or Heyman unless it comes from an official source and other outlets are reporting it as well.

I was going to write exactly the same thing. I find it very hard to believe this. This is obviously going to be (assuming they do end up splitting) a nasty breakup, so I'm not putting any stock in unsourced rumors, particularly when they're coming from The Post, Olney, etc. Even Boras knows that seriously making a $350M-or-don't-even-bother demand is so out of whack it would instantly cause any team to back out of the bidding process, which is extremely counterproductive seeing as how he definitely wants the Yankees involved. This would seem to be an employee putting up a firewall.

This all make sense if you understand that Alex is really... a lefty! Why, he hasn't even been giving 80% effort until now. But if he gets his $350M-$400M contract, he'll really start hitting.

I'm not sure it's spin: “they would have to be prepared to make an extension offer that would take the third baseman's deal up to a total value of $350 million.”

It sounds like the current contract plus getting it up to a total $350M.

Since the Yankees and Ranger were to pay A-Rod $81 million from 2008-10 that would leave the Yankees to come up with $269 million. Over seven years that would give him an annual salary of a bit south of $38.5 million for Rodriguez’s age 35-41 seasons. If it's supposed to be an eight year extension (until age 42) it averages out to a bit over $33.6 per annum.

That's not far off of what Boras has been saying all along A-Rod is worth. Sounds plausible enough to me.

Best Regards

John

I think we are entering an era where the Yankees/Red Sox will no longer be the exclusive clubs with the resources to bid on the best players in baseball. There is so much $$ in the game, it is plasuable that 10 teams can pay A-Rod +$300 million and make $$ on the deal.

I'm getting sick of this story. What a greedy ass.

There is so much $$ in the game, it is plasuable that 10 teams can pay A-Rod +$300 million and make $$ on the deal.

I disagree to a certain extent. I think the spread of money around the other teams will lead to more teams being able to make contracts in the $10-15M per year range. Anything above that is still rarefied territory.

A-Rod is nothing but greedy and Boras is the Wizard to lead him into this spot in history. Boras is expecting at least 30-35 million a year and is putting a book together like he did when A-Rod suckered Texas into paying that ungodly amount. Basically saying that he is going to be putting up seasons like this past year till the age of 45!! IF he can do it, God bless him but I highly doubt it. Whomever signs him will end up with the same result as Texas did - they will cry after the first or second year about having no money to spend on players around him. Plus the numbers he put up was with a stacked line up from top to bottom for the most part so he couldnt be pitched around in most cases. Will he have the same protection where ever he goes next? I for one am glad the yankess did not sign him and would be laughing forever if he ended up with less then the yanks offered him. To me 30 million a year for 5 years after making 27 million for 3 years before that seems to be a lot of money no matter who you are. Curious to see what you all think of what I posted :)

At what point does Tom Hicks enter the fray making an initial final offer of 17 years / $725 million? Take it or leave it.

If Boras was asking for $350M and the Yankees offered $150/5, that's not really a serious attempt to negotiate.

The question is which side wasn't serious about negotiating. With the current contract, the Yanks' offer totaled $231M/8, or $28,875,000 per year. More per year than the Texas contract that no one would assume without the $9M/yr subsidy. Much more than the Manny Ramirez contract that no one would take on when Boston put him on waivers. Revenues have gone up, but I don't think the owners want to spend them in such huge chunks. The market hasn't changed that much, and A-Rod won't end up topping the Yanks offer, IMHO. Had he negotiated, the offer might have even been sweetened a bit.

Seriously, the thing about A-Rod that is most attractive is that signing him means not having to give up quality young players. If it's true that Miggy Cabrera is available in a trade, then it would make financial sense for the Yankees to trade for Cabrera and sign him to a long-term deal for $20M per year, rather than pay A-Rod $35M per year: Cabrera's bat over the next 5 to 7 years will be almost as good or equally as good as A-Rod's (though probably more BA-heavy than HR-heavy), and the fact that Miggy will be either a poor-fielding 3B or a 1B/DH means he's worth $15M-a-year less than A-Rod. And if I'm the Yankees, I'd rather have 9%-10% of my payroll tied up in one player (Cabrera) rather than 16%+ of my payroll (Rodriguez), in part because I like to spread the risk around and in part because then I have $15M a year I can use to go after Santana or another front-line starter. HOWEVER, Florida will require some real talent in exchange for Cabrera, and I'm loathe to give up Kennedy/Hughes plus similar promising young players. With A-Rod, he'll be expensive but the Yankees will have a new stadium with more luxury boxes and the "farewell tour" of the old stadium to help boost revenues, and so they shouldn't completely give up on A-Rod yet.

Shamelessly pimping my own column.

How to do battle with the agent of darkness.

Best Regards

John

I love all the people (yes, you are predictable) who are trying to put this all as Yankee spin. Maybe you can't do math or don't understand what an extension entails. An extension does not void the previous contract. The Yankee offer was not 5/150 alone, it was 5/150 on top of the rest of the contract. That is 150 plus 81. So that's not a serious offer? Tell me how you feel about Cano? (I am so tired of reading the same predicatble posts over and over and over from the same people)

Cabrera's bat over the next 5 to 7 years will be almost as good or equally as good as A-Rod's (though probably more BA-heavy than HR-heavy), and the fact that Miggy will be either a poor-fielding 3B or a 1B/DH means he's worth $15M-a-year less than A-Rod.

I don't feel uncomfortable at all thinking that the next 5-7 years of Miguel Cabrera is going to worth more than the next 5-7 years of A-rod.

There is so much $$ in the game, it is plasuable that 10 teams can pay A-Rod +$300 million and make $$ on the deal.

Yup. ARod's going to get his money.

But he's so greedy for not wanting the owners to keep all the ridiculous profits they're taking.

Looking at MLB's latest revenue figures - $6 billion for 2007 - you can assume the average team now has revenues of $200 million a year. Given that is supposed to be a 50% improvement from 2004 (well after A-Rod's old deal) that means a 50% raise for A-Rod should (in theory) be possible. Of course, A-Rod is now in decline years rather than peak so a downward trend should exist as well. However, 50% above $25 million is $37.5 per year so I can see Boras trying for it as he must have figured out what I just did quite awhile ago and adjusted to the year A-Rod signed his big deal.

Scary eh?

The Yankee offer was not 5/150 alone, it was 5/150 on top of the rest of the contract. That is 150 plus 81. So that's not a serious offer?

I forgot that it was effectively $231/8. That's a lot closer to a reasonable offer (even if I expect he'll make much more).

I expect Boras to accept no deal without opt-outs, escalation clauses, or both.

Tell me how you feel about Cano?

Cano's improved defense and rebound from his early slump have convinced me that he was in a blind spot of mine, players who provide great value without walking much.

I believe Cano is among the best non-Utley 2B in baseball, speaking long-term. Utley's in a different class. I think I'd have to concede that he'll be a regular all-star.

And I hate, hate, hate the Yankees.

That is 150 plus 81. So that's not a serious offer?

I'd say no. Not since it prevents him from testing the markets. If the Yankees wanted to sign him during there negotiating window, they need to give a PREMIUM to giveup free agency, not ask for a discount.

No was Arod brings in less than 30m a year. 8@240 will be the lowest possiable number. If your 1) the richest team. 2) A team that MAY gets a subsidy 3) have a gapping need you goto the table with an offer that is at least better than the reasonable min.

150m was not a reasonable offer.

Now, they can fight with Baltimore for 3rd place, since toronto is a better team then NYY unless the yankees do more than resign George and Mariano.

It's also possible that this is a sign of how little AROD wanted to stay with the Yankees -- "the only way Alex returns is if you come in with an offer that blows everybody away."

I forgot that it was effectively $231/8. That's a lot closer to a reasonable offer (even if I expect he'll make much more).

Wasn't it actually more like $241/8? The original contract required $5 million more in 2009 and 2010 (otherwise A-Rod could void the deal then).

There is so much $$ in the game, it is plasuable that 10 teams can pay A-Rod +$300 million and make $$ on the deal.

The question is, can they afford A-Rod and the necessary infrastructure to put a competitive club on the field? The thing is, paying that kind of jack for a guy's decline phase doesn't exactly strike me as decision worthy of prime baseball acumen--P.R. acumen perhaps. After all, how much could a savvy GM do with that much extra money to work with? Assuming A-Rod wants a contract that pays him into his 40's will A-Rod be worth that much at saaaay age 42? Barry Bonds batted .276/.480/.565 (170 OPS+) this year at that age--a level reached only twice in Rodriguez’s career (2005 and 2007). The fact that A-Rod’s career OPS+ is 147, I’m gonna go out on a limb and assume he won’t be as productive as a 42 year old Barry Bonds; who, it should be noted, made $15,533,970 in 2007 with the game swimming in money.

Another note on the game being awash in money, that money obviously isn't distributed evenly (which limits teams that could afford to sink that much into one roster spot) and second, take a guy like Larry Beinfest in Florida--do you think if he had that much money to play with that he'd sink it into a 33-year old (come July 2008) average fielding third baseman? I'm guessing he'd use it to lock up some of his young jewels coming into, and not leaving, their primes.

Best Regards

John

John, I thought your HT article on fighting Boras was awesome. I expect some of Boras' thugs to be at your place any minute.

Cabrera's bat over the next 5 to 7 years will be almost as good or equally as good as A-Rod's

Cabrera age 22-24: 151, 159, 150

AROD age 29-31: 173, 134, 177

Cabrera age 25-30 ?
AROD age 32-37?

I would be suprised if AROD's BAT is better than Cabrera's over the next 5 years

ARod should continue to have more defensive value

John, I thought your HT article on fighting Boras was awesome. I expect some of Boras' thugs to be at your place any minute.

I didn't think Jehovah's Witnesses used UZI's.

Best Regards

John

If the Yankees wanted to sign him during there negotiating window, they need to give a PREMIUM to giveup free agency, not ask for a discount.

Highest salary in MLB history for the life of the contract is a discount?

If I'm Boras, I would argue that the Rangers cash doesn't count toward the Yankees offer. If their offer to A-Rod is 8/$230 (the remaining years of his contract plus the rumored extension), then they're effectively saying that he's worth 8/$209 to them because of the subsidy they are getting from the Rangers. If I'm Boras, I would say that that if you think he's worth 8/$230, then give up your subsidy and pay him 8/$251.

At least, that's how I think Boras's logic would work.

I don't doubt Boras, but I am really interested to see who he has on the hook to pay ARod. And quite frankly how it works out.

If I'm Boras, I would argue that the Rangers cash doesn't count toward the Yankees offer.

That would be the dumbest argument ever. Does A-Rod get the money? Then it's part of the offer.

Looking at MLB's latest revenue figures - $6 billion for 2007 - you can assume the average team now has revenues of $200 million a year. Given that is supposed to be a 50% improvement from 2004 (well after A-Rod's old deal) that means a 50% raise for A-Rod should (in theory) be possible.

I don't know all the figures, but this seems a little off. The 6 billion in revenues is not evenly distributed - and its not including the 2 billion (? - I think I've heard this number) in player salaries doled out (plus stadium costs). Plus, if you think that owners should spend every single penny on player salaries, there wouldn't be many owners out there.

$30 million/year just seems exorbitant. The high-end offer from the Yankees was supposed to be 5/150...which gives the $30 million/year A-Rod was looking for, but not the years. So lets say they give him 7/210, making the contract worth 10/290 to A-Rod. With their discount, they'd still be paying 10/270, which is a discount of a whopping 3 million per year. That's a lot to pay for even the Yankees. How is another team going to be able to afford it? Especially because it's commiting $150 million for his age 37-41 seasons.

Arguments that A-Rod's popularity is going to increase the exposure is confounded by the fact that he played 4 years in New York - where the exposure is still incredibly high. Take that away, and A-Rod is not as much in the spotlight. I doubt his presence is going to have such an earth-shattering affect on attendance/TV viewing alone, aside from helping his team get competitive. I can see the argument exposure rising due to him breaking the all-time HR record. Bonds popularity brought in a lot of fans. But it takes one wrong slide into second base to change that - look at Griffey. Gambling $150 million on that is a lot.

This all make sense if you understand that Alex is really... a lefty!

"There's something I ought to tell you, Brian."
"Tell me, Alex."
"I'm not right-handed either."

Smart move by the Yanks. It's interesting to wonder how this would have played out with an active George S.

I believe Cano is among the best non-Utley 2B in baseball, speaking long-term. Utley's in a different class. I think I'd have to concede that he'll be a regular all-star.

And I hate, hate, hate the Yankees.

I hate the Yankees as well, but think Cano has one of the most natural and graceful swings in the game. The playoff game where he hit a ball that was low , for a home run was frankly, quite awesome.

$30 million/year just seems exorbitant.

Oprah Winfrey makes about 10X that much, and no one thinks a thing of it.

ARod is worth whatever someone is willing to pay him. If that means $20M/yr, or $50M/yr, that's what he's worth. And it's Boras's job to get every penny he can for ARod, not just accept the first "exorbitant" offer he gets.

ARod is worth whatever someone is willing to pay him. If that means $20M/yr, or $50M/yr, that's what he's worth.

You are confusing "worth" with price
not the same thing

If some idiot wants to pay 5mm for a painting that no one else thinks is worth more than 2mm, it doesn't mean it's worth 5MM- not that it matters if he's buying it for aesthetic reasons and not as an investment

Boras is trying mightily to exploit the "winners curse" (and he's succeeded before)

The guy who wins the auction is most likely the guy who over valued the commodity and pays more than it's worth.

Folks need to wake up and realign their expectation of contracts. Baseball made $6b in revenue in one year. MLBAM made $450m. How would you feel if you were to find out the Yankees made $380m in revenue last year and cleared $120m in profit? (I don't know that is the actual number, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit.) The Sox probably made over $300m in revenue last year. And the $6b doesn't include money hidden via underpriced t.v. deals or parking lots operated by other authorities, etc. etc.

My player payroll data shows $2.47b in player salaries for 2007, so the actual number was probably around $2.6b. At just 43% of revenues that is well below the historical levels of the free agent era. Salaries were $2.3b in 2006, that is only a 7% increase in 2007. Any decent player who signs before free agency is leaving oodles of money on the table.

And this is a good thing for the quality of play. Let's say you are a star athlete and you can either play a sport where the stars make $20m/year and you'll probably be able to walk after playing (and you could play until you are 40). Max earnings in the $180m range. Or you can play a sport where you will be maimed and suffer an early death and your max earnings are in the $60m range. At some point, people are going to catch on that baseball is a much better bet if you are a star athlete. To some degree they already do. You never see football washouts trying baseball. It is always the other way. People try their hardest to be a pro baseball player before resorting to football.

| yearID | SalaryMillions |
+--------+----------------+
|   1990 |   444 |
|   1991 |   613 |
|   1992 |   806 |
|   1993 |   902 |
|   1994 |   928 |
|   1995 |   951 |
|   1996 |   957 |
|   1997 |  1127 |
|   1998 |  1278 |
|   1999 |  1494 |
|   2000 |  1666 |
|   2001 |  1961 |
|   2002 |  2024 |
|   2003 |  2128 |
|   2004 |  2071 |
|   2005 |  2189 |
|   2006 |  2322 |
|   2007 |  2477 |

The other insane thing is that MLB hasn't expanded to 32 teams yet. They would have to be able to raise another billion in expansion fees. Every franchise probably has $50m+ in guaranteed revenue coming in before they sell a seat.

Bingo. The Yanks are in full spin mode. Believe nothing you read from Olney or Heyman unless it comes from an official source and other outlets are reporting it as well.

Believe nothing of the Evil Empire~!!~ Not even the truth! Not even facts!~~! Believe nothing! Deny everything! Destroy them! Destroy them and their corporate evil!

Some team is going to end up paying Alex Rodriguez about a million dollars for every three wins or so they have, and that's if they're at or near a 90 win team.

That's ridiculous.

Oprah Winfrey makes about 10X that much, and no one thinks a thing of it.

The difference is she owns the show. Thats why she makes so much. She took a risk, went out on her own, she is entitled to the reward.

Great data, Sean. My hypothesis is that the data indicates that revenue sharing and the luxury tax are working like the owners intended. If the A-Rod contract negotiations are going to be the occasion for breaking the current relationship, probably a mid-market team not subject to revenue sharing and the luxury tax would be the team that would have to do it. The Phillies?

You know, I'm surprised at how personal certain posters take how much A-Rod is going to make.

Personally, I think it's insane to pay A-Rod anything over $25MM, for the simple reason that accidents happen (think Zumaya), and at least from what I've read, there's no way to insure yourself against decreased production stemming from minor, nagging injuries and/or a player's body collapsing on him (think Griffey before this year).

I don't particularly care if the owners keep their extra revenues or if A-Rod gets an extra $3MM to $5mm a year. Ultimately, we're talking about billionaires or multi-millionaires jousting with a multi-millionaire, and it's not like the Steimbrothers or A-Rod are going to invite any one of us to their TV room to drink a few beers and watch Bachelor Party.

You are forgetting that A-Rod is coming off an historic season. He was the first player since 2006 to hit as many as 54 home runs.

If I'm Boras, I would argue that the Rangers cash doesn't count toward the Yankees offer.

I agree with this 100%. It can't be ignored that one of the two parties (A-Rod or the Yankees) will become the benefactor of that Texas subsidy. It would have taken some major negotiations to split that up. With the subsidy in play, either the Yankees are getting a discount or A-Rod is getting a little extra.

I think #48 was a dumb post. This Texas money is a major issue, why do you think Cashman made such a big deal of A-Rod opting out then? Cash wanted all of that $21mm to go his way. To Boras and to economic reality, this was a $21million discount he didn't need to give away.

The question is, can they afford A-Rod and the necessary infrastructure to put a competitive club on the field? The thing is, paying that kind of jack for a guy's decline phase doesn't exactly strike me as decision worthy of prime baseball acumen--P.R. acumen perhaps. After all, how much could a savvy GM do with that much extra money to work with? Assuming A-Rod wants a contract that pays him into his 40's will A-Rod be worth that much at saaaay age 42? Barry Bonds batted .276/.480/.565 (170 OPS+) this year at that age--a level reached only twice in Rodriguez’s career (2005 and 2007). The fact that A-Rod’s career OPS+ is 147, I’m gonna go out on a limb and assume he won’t be as productive as a 42 year old Barry Bonds; who, it should be noted, made $15,533,970 in 2007 with the game swimming in money.

I think this is a good argument that becomes somewhat beside the point when you get into the "extraordinary talent" bracket, and the consideration that whichever GM signs ARod today isn't going to be around when ARod's playing his age-40 seasons (nor will the team president, the manager, current members of the team ... the person most likely to still be around is probably the owner, though even he isn't that great of a bet). re: the extraordinary talent bit, ARod gives you a hugely increased chance to win over those years the current personnel is likely to be in place, the first five or so years. So while you're probably right, I don't think it's going to come into consideration vis-a-vis the current negotiations - not that you're necessarily making that argument. Plus, in 8 years, that $30-whatever million a year isn't going to look as bad as it does today given inflation, rising revenues, and so on, though Boras will probably ask for kickers.

I'll also add that I'm about as excited for this offseason as any I can remember. There are some great stories and sure-to-be interesting negotiations out there.

It would have taken some major negotiations to split that up. With the subsidy in play, either the Yankees are getting a discount or A-Rod is getting a little extra.

Yes, but, then again, didn't A-Rod refuse to negotiate when there was this $21 million pie to split up? If this was so important, why wouldn't A-Rod have discussed it at the negotiating table?

You're being silly. It's really simple, A-Rod opted out because he thought that he could get significantly more than the $242 million for 8 years that the Yankees were offering.

Cash wanted all of that $21mm to go his way. To Boras and to economic reality, this was a $21million discount he didn't need to give away.

What the hell are you talking about? This wasn't money that was going to the Yankees, it was money that was going to A-Rod.

Had A-Rod played in Texas, he would have made $27 million, playing in New York he made $27 million. The Yankees weren't getting a bonus -- they were still paying nearly $20 million for A-Rod -- and A-Rod wasn't taking a discount.

Your argument is essentially that Boras should tell the Yankees that A-Rod would have to make $21 million to $30 million more to play with the Yankees than to play elsewhere. And if he told the Yankees that, they would tell him to shove it up his ass and go elsewhere, then. And they'd be absolutely right.

A-Rod's approach should have been (had he wished to possibly stay with the Yankees), "I think there's a decent chance that I'd get $X as a free agent (though it's far from certain), so I'll need that much to sign away my shot at free agency" -- and start negotiations there. Really, that's how it's supposed to work -- the team gives more than they might have to give up so they don't risk losing the player (or having to pay even more if the market is stronger than expected), the player takes less than they might otherwise get so they don't risk getting less than that if the market isn't there. In this case, the scales were tilted more towards the Yankees making a deal because they had the $21-30 million subsidy if they signed an extension.

But you're advocating that Boras say, "We'll need to get about the maximum of what he'd get as a free agent -- AND that subsidy, too. Even though there's no way he'd ever get nearly that much as a free agent." That's pretty much greed defined.

I completely do not get the argument that A-Rod either deserved, or cared about the $21M. Can someone lay it out for me, because from what I've seen, it sounds like the stupidest argument in the world, but I'm open to new ideas...

It's really simple, A-Rod opted out because he thought that he could get significantly more than the $242 million for 8 years that the Yankees were offering.

Then he should have sat down and negotiated that for ten days instead of sitting down and not negotiating with ANYBODY for ten days.

A team ALWAYS starts lower than they're willing to go, and the player ALWAYS starts higher than they're willing to go. If A-Rod sat down, he might have been able to work out an extension for an amount closer to his desires -- how about 10 years, $330 million?. At worst, it wouldn't work out, and he could have left the team on reasonably good terms:

"After several days of negotiations, the Yankees and I have been unable to agree on terms that were acceptable to both sides. The Yankees' offers were generous, but I feel that it is in my best interests to explore the market. I hope that the Yankees will change their stance and be willing to negotiate with me during the offseason, but if not I thank them for the four years I spent with them and wish them the best of luck in the future."

Instead, he opted out immediately, indicating either:

A) He's more interested in getting the most he CAN get rather than any specific amount of money he may have in mind.

B) He just wanted out of New York, and didn't want to risk meeting with the team and being officially offered more than he ended up getting as a free agent, or (as seems more likely) them hiring a new manager and resolving the Rivera/Posada/Pettitte/Abreu situations before the deadline and killing his "team in uncertainty" statement.

I completely do not get the argument that A-Rod either deserved, or cared about the $21M. Can someone lay it out for me, because from what I've seen, it sounds like the stupidest argument in the world, but I'm open to new ideas...

As I understand it, the argument they're trying to make is:

When you bid on a free agent, your maximum offer is how much money you think the player will bring in for the team (or bring in for you personally as the owner, as was the case with Tom Hicks and his property around Rangers Ballpark). So they're arguing that the Yankees should be offering that PLUS the $21 million, because that wasn't their money to begin with.

What the hell are you talking about? This wasn't money that was going to the Yankees, it was money that was going to A-Rod.

Had A-Rod played in Texas, he would have made $27 million, playing in New York he made $27 million. The Yankees weren't getting a bonus -- they were still paying nearly $20 million for A-Rod -- and A-Rod wasn't taking a discount.

Your argument is essentially that Boras should tell the Yankees that A-Rod would have to make $21 million to $30 million more to play with the Yankees than to play elsewhere. And if he told the Yankees that, they would tell him to shove it up his ass and go elsewhere, then. And they'd be absolutely right.

A-Rod's approach should have been (had he wished to possibly stay with the Yankees), "I think there's a decent chance that I'd get $X as a free agent (though it's far from certain), so I'll need that much to sign away my shot at free agency" -- and start negotiations there. Really, that's how it's supposed to work -- the team gives more than they might have to give up so they don't risk losing the player (or having to pay even more if the market is stronger than expected), the player takes less than they might otherwise get so they don't risk getting less than that if the market isn't there. In this case, the scales were tilted more towards the Yankees making a deal because they had the $21-30 million subsidy if they signed an extension.

But you're advocating that Boras say, "We'll need to get about the maximum of what he'd get as a free agent -- AND that subsidy, too. Even though there's no way he'd ever get nearly that much as a free agent." That's pretty much greed defined.

Should I shoot this guy? I am not calling it Yankee revenue.

The $30mm subsidy was $$ the Yankees didn't have to pay because it was money paid by Texas. Thus it lowered the Yankees expenditures--not the same as revenue. That is how they negotiated it with the Rangers. Had the Yankees not been able to get the $30mm subsidy from Texas, this would have meant the Yankees would have had $30 million less (expenditure).

The fact that we are even having this dumb debate proves that it could have been used in the negotiation and it would have caused an issue.

Geez, relax pal.

The $30mm subsidy was $$ the Yankees didn't have to pay because it was a subsidy from Texas. That is how they negotiated it with the Rangers. Had the Yankees not been able to get the $30mm subsidy from Texas, this would have meant the Yankees would have had $30 million less.

They wouldn't have had A-Rod if they didn't get the subsidy. It didn't lower their expenditures, it decreased the amount their expenditures would have increased.

The fact that we are even having this dumb debate proves that it could have been used in the negotiation and it would have caused an issue.

It would have been a non-starter with the Yankees. The only think Boras could say in negotiations that they would respond to is "we feel we'll get more on the market". Saying, "c'mon, you can give us more than that!" is a really stupid negotiating tactic.

Geez, relax pal.

Your post is stupid. And I should shoot you if you take offense to my saying that.

There. Now I'm you.

What the hell are you talking about? This wasn't money that was going to the Yankees, it was money that was going to A-Rod.

Larry, that just makes no sense in the context of this discussion over the opt-out. A-Rod was going to be cheaper to the Yankees pre opt-out than he would be to any team -- including the Yankees -- post-opt out. The money WAS going to the Yankees, and it made A-Rod effectively cheaper to the Yankees.

Really, that's how it's supposed to work -- the team gives more than they might have to give up so they don't risk losing the player (or having to pay even more if the market is stronger than expected), the player takes less than they might otherwise get so they don't risk getting less than that if the market isn't there.

Again, I don't see this at all. The player takes less??? A Scott Boras player just doesn't take less, because he (Boras) has utter confidence that the market will yield more than any negotiation with a single team, even the Yankees. Boras views free agency as a valuable right -- and if the team wants to buy out that right, they have to pay a premium for it. There is no way the Yankees' offer included a premium, and it doesn't appear to me there was ever an indication they viewed the situation that way. They wanted A-Rod to "want" to recognize how special it is to be a Yankee -- that in these circumstances, even opting out was unacceptable. This means they weren't going to pay a premium to get him to decline to exercise that option.

The only reason A-Rod and Boras would have waited (other than one extra day to respect the WS) would have been to play a game and waste everyone's time. It might have made them look good in the spin wars, but the ultimate outcome would have been exactly the same.

I completely do not get the argument that A-Rod either deserved, or cared about the $21M. Can someone lay it out for me, because from what I've seen, it sounds like the stupidest argument in the world, but I'm open to new ideas...

The argument is that if ARod is worth $30M a year to the Yankees but they're getting him at $23M for the first three years, they're benefitting from him over and above what they're paying for him, i.e. getting a subsidy. Boras can demand that if ARod is worth $30M to them, they should be debited $30M a year for him regardless. The Yankees can just as easily say that they paid for that subsidy (i.e. that it isn't money coming from nowhere) by giving up talent and taking on contract risk when they traded for him. Then usually they negotiate the whole thing and come up somewhere in the middle. Personally, I'm "on ARod's side" but I think the Yankees are/would be right in this matter - they're not receiving this subsidy for nothing. They paid for it (they may have underpaid, I don't know) but they reached a deal and compensated the other side for it.

bibigon Posted: November 03, 2007 at 12:03 AM (#2604225)
I completely do not get the argument that A-Rod either deserved, or cared about the $21M. Can someone lay it out for me, because from what I've seen, it sounds like the stupidest argument in the world, but I'm open to new ideas...

I am not suggesting that in the end A-Rod would care if his new deal was $350 million with the $21 or without.

The best way to explain our angle is the Dice-K negotiations. The Sox made the case to his agent that, hey, we already paid $50million for you, you will get only $50million more. Dice-K's people were like, but we didn't get that money. You are only paying us $50, when in reality you are willing to pay $100 for us.
---
as an aside, this also shows that if you tax something enough, it causes inefficiencies in the free market as it relates to the ability of people to gage true value due to outside influence.

Calm down, guys, or I'm going to start suggesting asinine trades again.

Your post is stupid. And I should shoot you if you take offense to my saying that.

There. Now I'm you.

Are you 9? Actually you called the first guy's post stupid before I call your stupid.

I am 10.

Could everyone stop shooting each other?

The player takes less???

Less than he thinks he could *possibly* get, not what he thinks he WILL get.

Say A-Rod and Boras think they'll certainly get at least $30 million a year as a free agent, they'll probably get $32 million, and they MIGHT get $35 million. So they sit down and start negotiations at $35 million, settle on $33 million. They're better off than they expected to be, worse off than they MIGHT have been.

as an aside, this also shows that if you tax something enough, it causes inefficiencies in the free market as it relates to the ability of people to gage true value due to outside influence.

True, although in the Dice-K case, we would be talking about a 100% sales tax rate, which anyone can agree is cuckoo-bird.

The best way to explain our angle is the Dice-K negotiations.

Except in the ARod example ARod gets the money. ARod isn't getting shorted 7 million dollars a year for three years. He not the Yankees get that money and furthermore the Yankees get hit with the luxury tax on that subsidy.

Should Ara mis Ramirez demand 50 million dollars a year from the Cubs because the Tribune owns the Cubs and receive revenue from sources outside of the Cubs?

ARod's contract was being honored, he was being paid what he agreed to be paid. How in the world does it matter how George Steinbrenner got the money to pay ARod?

Say A-Rod and Boras think they'll certainly get at least $30 million a year as a free agent, they'll probably get $32 million, and they MIGHT get $35 million. So they sit down and start negotiations at $35 million, settle on $33 million. They're better off than they expected to be, worse off than they MIGHT have been.

Except that's not the way Boras thinks. He believes ANY figure the team is offering outside of the context of a free market is a figure that he can beat if he can play teams off each other. So if the Yankees pre opt-out offer $33M, he just will conclude -- by virtue of that offer -- that he can and will get more for A-Rod post opt-out. That is in part a reflection of his faith in the free market over a market in which the player's right to negotiate is constricted, and it is even more a reflection of his ego, that if he can play teams off each other (and lie and boast and cheat), he can get a better offer every time for his client.

So anything the Yankees would have offered in the type of negotiation that would have gone on in that 10 day period would, by definition, have NOT been as good as what could have been out there afterward. That's the Boras worldview. And can anyone blame A-Rod for having faith in that, too?

This Texas money is a major issue, why do you think Cashman made such a big deal of A-Rod opting out then? Cash wanted all of that $21mm to go his way.

This is pure, utter, unadulterated nonsense. Every single goddamned freaking penny of the Texas money goes to Alex Rodriguez. The fact that some of it passes through the Yankees' accounts on the way to Rodriguez' accounts is absolutely irrelevant. Keeping the subsidy would have saved the Yankees some payroll and tax dollars in the next three years, and that is not an insignificant fact. But the idea that Cashman was somehow wanting to keep the Texas money for himself is either stupid or dishonest.

Believe nothing you read from Olney or Heyman unless it comes from an official source and other outlets are reporting it as well.

I'll give you Heyman, but Olney's entire career is built on slagging, not pimping, the Yankees. And he's the original reporter of this story.

A team ALWAYS starts lower than they're willing to go, and the player ALWAYS starts higher than they're willing to go.

Then usually they negotiate the whole thing and come up somewhere in the middle.

Exactly. All we really know about the situation, and all we are likely to ever really know, is that no negotiation took place. We don't/won't know why.

They wanted A-Rod to "want" to recognize how special it is to be a Yankee -- that in these circumstances, even opting out was unacceptable. This means they weren't going to pay a premium to get him to decline to exercise that option.

Except for the part about opting out being unacceptable, I'm not sure what your evidence for this is. We have no way of knowing what the Yankees might have done had Boras been willing to negotiate for ten days. Not opting out would have given the Yankees a short-term (3 year) financial benefit. Ten days of negotiations might have given us an idea of how much they'd have been willing to pay on the back end of an extension to secure that benefit. The fact that those negotiations never happened does not allow us to conclude that they weren't willing to consider paying a premium to avoid the opt-out. Even if we take the rumors about each side's starting positions at face value.

So anything the Yankees would have offered in the type of negotiation that would have gone on in that 10 day period would, by definition, have NOT been as good as what could have been out there afterward. That's the Boras worldview. And can anyone blame A-Rod for having faith in that, too?

But this amounts to saying that the Yankees never had a chance to keep Boras from exercising the opt-out. While that may very well be a correct assessment of the situation, it doesn't make a bit of sense to criticize the Yankees for Boras' world view.

Sean Forman's post #55 is a lone, sane voice crying out in the wilderness of insanity that is this thread.

The money is there. The combination of credulous fans taking ownership rhetoric at face value and Yankee fans just being fans has created a bizarre situation where people refuse to acknowledge the actual fiscal situation of major league baseball. Scott Boras is well aware of where the money is, and he's going to get it.

When you bid on a free agent, your maximum offer is how much money you think the player will bring in for the team (or bring in for you personally as the owner, as was the case with Tom Hicks and his property around Rangers Ballpark). So they're arguing that the Yankees should be offering that PLUS the $21 million, because that wasn't their money to begin with.

I don't understand this. Shouldn't the maximum be less than this? The team is taking on all the risk. The player's money is guaranteed, the teams, far from. Shouldn't they expect better than to break even if everything goes as planned?

Except for the part about opting out being unacceptable, I'm not sure what your evidence for this is.

How about every utterance out of Hank Steinbrenner's mouth since A-Rod opted out, and about half of what he said on the subject even before that? The "magnitude of being a Yankee" this and the "Toledo Mud Hens" that. Any indication from A-Rod that he didn't genuflect before the monuments, that he didn't want to wear the pinstripes until the day he died and then be buried in them, was taken as an act not of a player wanting to explore the FA, but of disloyalty, and as proof positive he did not want to be a Yankee. Steinbrenner was talking even BEFORE A-Rod opted out -- before he didn't meet with them, before he didn't wait for the 10 days -- about how opting out would indicate A-Rod didn't want to be a Yankee, and if he didn't want to be a Yankee, they wouldn't negotiate because they only wanted guys who wanted to be there. If he didn't want to be there, it would be, as Hank put it, "goodbye." That's my evidence.

But rhetoric aside, I agree with this:

But this amounts to saying that the Yankees never had a chance to keep Boras from exercising the opt-out. While that may very well be a correct assessment of the situation, it doesn't make a bit of sense to criticize the Yankees for Boras' world view.

Absolutely. The Yankees never had a chance to keep Boras and A-Rod from opting out. I've been saying that all along. When a Boras client has a chance to hit free agency, he almost always does it. It's a right Boras values above almost anything else. He just doesn't forego it. Period. It happened with Andruw Jones and the Braves -- and I'd bet anything it was virtually over Boras's dead body that one time. I don't criticize the Yankees for the fact A-Rod opted out. What makes you think I do?

What they did have a chance to do was not take that personally, not take it as if it meant he was disloyal or as a definitive sign he wanted to leave New York or the Yankees. I've said it before, I'll say it again: it is the Yankees, not A-Rod, who have decided that his opting out means the end of his career as a Yankee. Their choice, not his. They could decide to bid any time they want, for the price they think is right. Nothing whatsoever is stopping them. If they are a worse team for him not being their 3B next year, or in any year thereafter, it is not Scott Boras's fault, and it is not A-Rod's fault. It was the Yankees' choice not to negotiate in the free market.

I don't criticize the Yankees for the fact A-Rod opted out. What makes you think I do?

Umm, I dunno, maybe the stuff your write? Including stuff in this thread. Including stuff in the same post as this question.

Hint: Hank Steinbrenner's bluster is completely irrelevant to any meaningful negotiation that might have taken place between Boras and Cashman. It comes under the heading of "rhetoric." So don't write, "rhetoric aside" if you're not actually going to put the rhetoric aside.

EDIT:

They could decide to bid any time they want, for the price they think is right. Nothing whatsoever is stopping them.

I think what's stopping them is that they don't think the price is right. Period. Agree or disagree about whether they should be willing to pay any price, but let's stop pretending it's really about the crap that Hank Steinbrenner is spewing.

If they are a worse team for him not being their 3B next year, or in any year thereafter, it is not Scott Boras's fault, and it is not A-Rod's fault. It was the Yankees' choice not to negotiate in the free market.

No disagreement here.

As I have said several times, I pretty much agree with Sam here. I can see not wanting to pay ARod 30M a year until he's 40 years old, no matter what MLB's or the Yankees' revenues are. But I think going to the table and making an offer would have been better, since, as I said three days ago, with this agent and this client, the opt-out was a given.

Hint: Hank Steinbrenner's bluster is completely irrelevant to any meaningful negotiation that might have taken place between Boras and Cashman.

I don't think it is quite that simple. Cashman ultimately answers to the Steinbrenners, so while you may be right, owner rhetoric is not the same as media rhetoric or fan rhetoric.

Did the Yankees make any offers before the season? I don't think they did, but I may have missed it.

I don't criticize the Yankees for the fact A-Rod opted out. What makes you think I do?

Umm, I dunno, maybe the stuff your write? Including stuff in this thread. Including stuff in the same post as this question.

But none of that is criticizing the Yankees for A-Rod opting out. Or blaming them for it. I think that unless A-Rod overruled Boras (which always struck me as extremely unlikely, but I suppose not completely impossible), they were going to opt out.

I've only criticized them for something very different: their position that they won't negotiate with him once he did opt out, which I think makes no sense at all. Frankly, for those of you who say that Boras and A-Rod should have at least talked to the Yankees during the 10-day window on the "what did they have to lose?" theory, why isn't that equally true for the Yankees now? Yes, I know the whole, "credibility with future negotiations" if they back off their prior threat not to negotiate post opt-out. I have never bought that, but even if I did, I think losing A-Rod if the price is right is a lot more of a loss than some unquantifiable loss of "credibility" anyway. If the Yankees think the price gets too high, they can always pull out. That's no reason not to participate in the bidding.

No Dan, before the season the Yankees' stance was 'ARod can come back and play for his current contract but we're not extending him.'

The money is there. The combination of credulous fans taking ownership rhetoric at face value and Yankee fans just being fans has created a bizarre situation where people refuse to acknowledge the actual fiscal situation of major league baseball. Scott Boras is well aware of where the money is, and he's going to get it.

The money is there, but I think few teams are interested in giving up all their money for A-Rod just for the hell of it. A-Rod has to bring in what he costs and more for a rationally run team to be interested.

Boras has crashed and burned before in negotiations. I think it is fairly possible some lucky team ends up with A-Rod on a short-term contract, á la Millwood. Because this does smell a lot like an overreach on Boras part.

No Dan, before the season the Yankees' stance was 'ARod can come back and play for his current contract but we're not extending him.'

That's what I thought.

The Yankees had to know after his most recent season that he would opt out.

Assuming perfect knowledge of the market it made no sense for Boras to opt out. Let's say AROd is worth 300M on the open market. Pre-opt out the Yankees only have to pay him 280M for AROD to get market price. Win- -win especially if AROd wants to stay a Yankee.

Now Boras is smart, so he might hold up the Yankees for some or all of that 20M. Let's say they split the difference: Yankeees pay 290 (less than market) AROD gets $310 (more than market). Still win-win. In a perfect market, the only way Boras can get MORE than market is by staying a Yankee!

Now the reality is that nobody knows the market. But wouldn't it be logical to believe that the Yankees would be the best place to get market and the best time to get that market price is before opting out? They have a 20M head start, the most revenue, the greatest need to field a winner (esp after the hated Red sox have won) and their marketing strategy has always been based on star power.

But Boras didn't even try to negotiate during the opt out period. He opted out the second he could. My guess is that he did it that and made the silly pronouncement that AROD was opting out due to player uncertainty as an effort to convince the world that the Yankees were still in it. that would have been even harder to do if the parties had negotiated hard for 10 days and then failed.

Sam, you can say it's just Boras's world view that the best way to get the most money is to be a free agent, but in this case, Boras was throwing away 20M that was already in the pot. And by opting out he also bet the NYY were bluffing when they said "opt out and we're out"--taking the wealthiest team in baseball out of the bidding. That's a pretty big bet. He also leave behind the lucrative NY endorsement market.

So, I DON'T think it's about the money. Why does AROD even care about money at this stage? He's already made more money than his children can ever hope to spend. The Yankees were willing to pay him another 250M. It's not about keeping score--he's already been and continues to be the highest paid player in baseball.

Tom Brady and Tim Duncan both took LESS than market, to stay with their teams and keep them competitive. Yes, the league imposed salary caps provide more incentive for that behavior, but it reflects that those guys realize that they have more than enough money. AROD must realize that as well.

AROD wanted out of the NYY. Why else would you take the 20m and throw it aside and at the same time risk take the Yankees out of the bidding?

Unless there's been some serious tampering.

Tom Brady and Tim Duncan both took LESS than market, to stay with their teams and keep them competitive. Yes, the league imposed salary caps provide more incentive for that behavior, but it reflects that those guys realize that they have more than enough money. AROD must realize that as well.

AROD wanted out of the NYY. Why else would you take the 20m and throw it aside and at the same time risk take the Yankees out of the bidding?

The difference between A-Rod and Brady or Duncan is that A-Rod has been abused pretty badly where he is, and signed a giant contract as a free agent. That of course supports the theory that A-Rod wanted out.

This is pure, utter, unadulterated nonsense. Every single goddamned freaking penny of the Texas money goes to Alex Rodriguez. The fact that some of it passes through the Yankees' accounts on the way to Rodriguez' accounts is absolutely irrelevant. Keeping the subsidy would have saved the Yankees some payroll and tax dollars in the next three years, and that is not an insignificant fact. But the idea that Cashman was somehow wanting to keep the Texas money for himself is either stupid or dishonest.

You "..might be the stupidest person on the face of the earth." What movie?

Seriously, how hard is it for people to comprehend that the $21million from Texas was money that the Yankees did not have to pay. With the opt out, this meant that the Yankees would have had to otherwise pay more money from their accounts to get A-Rod up to the same money he was making.

Geez, it is not that difficult of a concept to understand.

OK, Sam. That's all reasonable. But how does it fit in with A-Rod saying his choice was based on "uncertainty"? Or Boras giving Cash 10 minutes notice by voice mail?

I think you may well be right that the Yankees never had a chance to keep A-Rod from opting out, but A-Rod never acted (and still isn't acting) like that's the case. I don't think it's surprising that the Yankees and their fans feel jerked around.

When a Boras client has a chance to hit free agency, he almost always does it. It's a right Boras values above almost anything else. He just doesn't forego it. Period. It happened with Andruw Jones and the Braves -- and I'd bet anything it was virtually over Boras's dead body that one time.

To further this point, I was reading in Schuerholz's book than Andruw and his dad basically came in and got the deal done, so I am guessing Boras wasnt thrilled with the decision.

OK, Sam. That's all reasonable. But how does it fit in with A-Rod saying his choice was based on "uncertainty"? Or Boras giving Cash 10 minutes notice by voice mail?

That was all a lot of hooey. What they should have done/said -- which would have been utterly flawless and stuck a knife so deep into Hank Steinbrenner and Randy Levine they'd have never found the blade -- would have been the following:

I have decided to make the difficult decision to opt out after watching the sad spectacle of how the Yankee handled Joe Torre's departure from the organization. If a man who has meant as much to the franchise, who has been at the heart of all the success the team has enjoyed for a dozen years, can be treated that way, then it makes me question the future of the team. I have to ask myself, how will I be regarded? I have had my differences with Joe at times; that's no secret. But I have the utmost respect for him, and the serious questions his treatment raises for me cannot, and will not, be answered in the next 10 days. I have not shut the door on a possible return to the Yankees, and hope my doubts can be answered in the weeks to come. As I see the situation unfold there, perhaps my comfort level will return to what it once was. In the meantime, I will explore all options in free agency for a winning situation, and appreciate the four years I have spent playing for the fans of New York.

That would have been awesome.

OK, Sam. That's all reasonable. But how does it fit in with A-Rod saying his choice was based on "uncertainty"? Or Boras giving Cash 10 minutes notice by voice mail?

I'm going with that all being bad spin. He was opting out no matter what but they wanted to provide cover. So they made this silly (and, to me, obviously untrue) justification to avoid bad press, but then got bad press anyway because the justification isn't consistent with any sort of prior behavior on the part of ARod or Boras. The smart thing would have been to release a statement simply saying he was opting out, give no reason, and let the speculation market sort it out. The outcome would have been a lot more charitable, given the situation he's had in NYC. Now everyone's focusing on the excuse and he looks worse.