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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, August 05, 2012Sox acquire 3B Danny Valencia from TwinsIn 1362 career plate appearances, Valencia and Will Middlebrooks have 73 walks, or five more than Kevin Youkilis had in 2011 alone.
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: August 05, 2012 at 03:21 PM | 44 comment(s)
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1. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: August 05, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4201041)Even throwing out dWAR, they're about tied in oWAR at this point (Middlebrooks 1.1 to Youkilis 1.0). You'd most likely want Middlebrooks going forward, but jeez. I don't think there's actually been enough made about how bad of a trade that was.
Sure, it was a lousy trade, but what was the alternative at the time? Send Middlebrooks back to the minors even though he was raking and had been penciled in as the 3B of the future? And wasn't Youkilis an unhappy camper and pretty vocal about his feelings?
I raised that the other day in Royals thread (yes, Royals threads exist!). That -2.8 WAR gives him a shot at the all time record of -4.1 and a better shot at the Royals record of -3.4 (I think it was, held by Lou Piniella actually).
I'd have found PAs for them somewhere. 3B/DH/1B, playing Adrian Gonzalez some more in the OF, playing Ryan Sweeney some less in the OF.
It's Bobby Valentine's job to handle that. Otherwise, what is he there for? There's no shortage of people who are able to "manage" a big league club.
The course they did choose - giving him away - was pointlessly self inflicted.
Yes. Young guys get sent back to AAA all the time, and Middlebrooks had not really displayed anything other than some hot luck. Ship him to Pawtucket with a slap on a butt and a "See ya in September" and try not to get no return whatsoever for your all star.
It was an incredibly bad trade.
Youk now has a 260/387/511 line in Chicago, to move him to a 787 OPS for the year.
It's amazing to me that so many smart people seemed to bend over backwards to say he was toast when in reality, you had an injury filled 400 or so PA to make that judgement. It wasn't enough of a sample either way, but the big sample -- his career -- pointed to a turnaround IMO.
Yea he's not the Youk of old, he'll prolly never bat above 270 or play more than 120 games a season again, but for this year it's hard to see how trading him for scrubs helped. The simplest, most obvious move to was to send Middlebrooks to AAA, if Youk continued to suck, well, then trade him at the deadline. His value couldn't have gone any lower, judging from the return they got.
I remember you being quite unhappy at the time the deal went down, but unless Cherrington was going to can Bobby V, then it was inevitable.
On the trade thread, I don't recall many folks claiming that Youk was going to rake the rest of the way,* only that any live body would be better than who Ventura had been starting at 3B.
* In 34 games on the South Side, Youkilis is outperforming even his '11 numbers.
Youk as a White Sox has probably improved the club 2 games or so since he's been with them. It wasn't even like he was replacing a below average regular, he was replacing a vortex of suckitude. Obvious trade for Chicago. That they gave up nothing was shocking to me then, and still is.
Then can Booby V. Managers are fungible.
Brings me to my next complaint...
Eight months after he was hired? Be serious. Youk was history after this season anyway. By the way, did he ever make peace with Ellsbury?
EDIT: To be sure, I never defended the talent Cherrington got in return, just that he seemed to be in a no-win situation (no pun intended).
Well, I didn't like the hiring to begin with, but, yes, I agree there is no way they were going to fire him so soon. We'll need to wait a while for that.
AL WAR Leaders
1. Trout
2. Cano
3. Verlander
4. Reddick
Bailey was two years removed from his ROY campaign. He put in two injury shortened seasons afterwards, and last year if he had thrown 120 innings he still wouldn't have equaled Josh's short 2011 campaign.
Don't.Trade.Position players for relievers.
Indeed.
Youk no longer was working out either and the new front office was not going to pull the plug on their first big decision so soon. BTW, Ellsbury reportedly likes playing under Bobby V; if so, it would be rather silly not to take that into account.
Which of the following two things is likely to happen;
1. Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Sox a meaningful discount and sign a long term contract if they promise to keep Bobby V. as manager
2. Jacoby Ellsbury will say the right things then sign for the biggest pile of money he can get regardless of who manages the Red Sox.
Tell that to AA!
[edit] - mobile typos...
I don't think playing better than he ever has can be described as a dead cat bounce.
He was even less involved than that since JP was GM at the time.
Alfonso Soriano is NOT available.
Apologies.
As of this moment Youkilis is not injured, and has remained generally healthy with Chicago. If he stays healthy through the rest of the year, I'd say his good health from the time of the trade to the end of 2012 is a decent surprise.
Trading him for essentially nothing, well, that's another story. I don't know what they could have had for him, but throwing out both pairs of Sox there were 28 teams that could have beat Chicago's offer, but didn't. And given how obvious it is alleged that he would turn it around, surely one of those teams would find room for Youkilis and be willing to give up more than the White Sox did. And yet they didn't. That's because his questionable health was a huge factor in the return Boston could get. Ignoring that is simply revisionist.
The obvious, and valid, counterpoint is that they didn't need to trade Youkilis. They didn't have to worry about his health so much, given they had a ready replacement in Middlebrooks. Fair point. It's also been suggested (previously, not in this thread) they shouldn't have traded him when stock in his health was so low. The problem there is that you have to trade him before he gets injured again. Like 28 other teams, the Red Sox did not want any part of that injury risk.
I was about to post the same thing. If you aren't going to need to get back salary relief nor a good player, then you don't have to time the trade for when he's healthy.
This article, which was linked to in one of the threads at the time, suggests that doing right by Youkilis might have been a motivating factor.
You don't need some indication to suggest a turnaround in health. For injured athletes, a turnaround in health is the default expectation.
It's funny that most of it is defense. How can you have a 76 OPS+ as a corner outfielder and only have a -1 WAR for offense? That seems broken. In '08 he posted a whopping 653 PAs of 72 OPS+ and that was only good for -1.4 oWAR. That seems broken too.
It sure is weird how he repeats the pattern of hot first year, ice cold after that in every stop of his career. Do teams somehow forget their scouting reports when he changes uniforms?
What number would seem correct to you? -1.4 oWAR in a full season is 34 runs below average. That's pretty bad.
Nick Johnson, Mark Prior and a chorus of others would love to subscribe to your newsletter.
Oh, I'm sure they would have wished they got the default concerning injury prone-ness
Wasn't obvious at all at the time. If he'd been sent down then, there'd have been a mutiny, because he was hitting like Ted Dimaggio.
(1) They didn't need to trade Youkilis.
(2) If they were going to trade him, they shouldn't have done it when his stock was so low.
You're treating them as though they were one counterpoint, which is wrong. Sorry if I made that paragraph needlessly confusing.
EDIT: Re-reading this I think I'm making it more confusing in this post. The conditional in (2) presupposed that (1) was effectively not an option, that he "needed" to be traded. If that were true - which it wasn't - they would have had to wait until he was healthy and good, according to the argument. But if you can't count on his health, you can't count on him ever getting to "healthy and good".
In all seriousness, did anyone think at the end of June that Youkilis was completely healthy and wouldn't get re-injured in the second half of the year?
* Said in my best Jim Mora "Playoffs?!" voice.
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