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1. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 21, 2008 at 01:50 PM (#2911300)What now? Zink in the crimson?
Beckett
Lester
Matsuzaka
Byrd
Zink? Pauley? Hansack? Colon?
Hey mgl, how does that Byrd tade look now?
If I ran a Burger King this way I'd be out of business in a month. There are such things as statistics, you know. But I guess the Red Sox don't.
/mgl
As for Buchholz, TINSTAAPP. The best-case scenario is that this is Roy Halladay circa 2000, but I'm skeptical. Buchholz is a mental mess right now and I'm not expecting to see him back in Boston until 2010 at the very earliest. 0-7 with a 9.22 ERA since his last victory. He collapses into quivering goo at the very first sign of adversity. Even when staked to a 4-0 lead last night it was clear he had no confidence in any of his pitches, his mechanics were a mess and he couldn't get out of his own way on the mound. He was missing the strike zone by a foot and looked for all the world like he'd rather be anywhere but on that mound.
The only good thing about him this season was his K rate. Everything else has been catastrophic. I think he's done as an elite prospect. Maybe he'll rebound to be a 4th starter or something in the future.
They've been playing reasonably well, and the overall fundamentals are solid, but October 2008 is looking very shaky right now - seems as likely they'll spend the whole month playing golf as they are playing baseball.
As far as this year, though, wow. I haven't seen a Red Sox pitcher melt down like that in a while. I suppose the Red Sox could try to stretch Masterson out again or pray that Pauley/Colon/Hansack can do something. Assuming they make it to October, they shouldn't need a 5th starter, at least.
Hey, Bowden put up a 1.37 ERA at Lancaster. He should be in the HoF for that alone! :)
The difference b/w Buchholz and some typical TINSTAAPP rebuke is that Buch had both scouting and statistical pedigree at a high level, and he has not suffered an physical injury. He is not Curt Ainsworth just because they were both well thought of minor league pitchers who grabbed a headline or three on BaseballAmerica.
He could have a permanent case of the Yips. He could turn it around by ST. I don't see how anyone can make good predictions one way or the other.
I do expect, though, that he won't be expected to be more than the #6 starter next year simply for risk reasons.
I'll say. How often does a pitcher make a pickoff move on a runner who was, at the time, already standing on the base?
I don't know quite what's wrong. My theory right now is that his stuff was good enough to dominate minor leaguers even though he was missing his spots, but he couldn't do the same against big leaguers, and then he started pressing and trying to be too perfect. That's a pretty common problem for minor league pitchers, especially those without big fastballs, and I think that dumping on him right now is a huge overreaction.
I still expect Buchholz to be an above average major league starter in 2009, barring injury. I don't want him in the big leagues right now, and he should probably also start next season in the minors, if there aren't any big changes forthcoming.
The contrast between Buchholz' reaction to adversity and Jon Lester's, who had a talent for working into and out of trouble constantly back in '06 and '07 when not sick, is pretty startling.
Now he is double-secret demoted.
And he has no idea where any of them are going. Command and control are completely lacking. I don't see those faults as allowing him to have the upside of a staff ace.
What would you call that horrid sequence in the 3rd last night, where he essentially showed he was scared to pitch the ball home and kept throwing over to 1st base with the runner already on the bag?
His confidence is completely shattered.
More often than you think. Depending on the base situation, once you step off to make your move, you gotta make the move or its a balk.
The yips is when you don't have any idea where the ball will go, coming out of your hand. Buchholz was missing his spots, not hitting the backstop. The yips is usually irreversible. Bad command happens all the time.
I wouldn't give up on anyone with front line stuff until they're 32 (pulled that out of my ass just now) or they injure themselves. A guy like Buccholz could put it back together any day in the next decade.
EDIT: I wouldn't give up on him, either. I'm just saying if this isn't just simple mechanical bad command, if it is, instead, some mental trouble (confidence, yips, whatever), that isn't a trivial problem to solve. Mental issues are often much more difficult (for everyone) to fix than physical ones.
Agreed on Bowden, and while he's been good in AAA, he certainly hasn't been dominant.
I also think Buchholz will still eventually be a frontline pitcher, just maybe not the next Roy Oswalt.
I agree. It seems to frequently take a guy a few years to get it all together. Unfortunately for Red Sox fans, it seems to happen in a new organization.
This means, of course, that the Sox must trade Buccholz for Eric Byrnes.
That's the only path to salvation
Bobo Holloman says hi
I mean, look at that picture of him in the article. He does not look good.
...
I wouldn't give up on him, either. I'm just saying if this isn't just simple mechanical bad command, if it is, instead, some mental trouble (confidence, yips, whatever), that isn't a trivial problem to solve. Mental issues are often much more difficult (for everyone) to fix than physical ones.
Rich Hill called. He wants his scouting report back.
24-year-old Nolan Ryan says hello.
We don't really know that "mental issues are often much more difficult" to fix. We don't see them reported as often, so our view is completely backwards. I'd expect, actually, that mental hangups explain a heck of a lot of variation in minor league pitchers performance. Therefore, I'd expect that they are fixed all the time in pitchers the same age as Buchholz. But, I'm just guessing.
Well, yeah, but last night he was pretty clearly throwing over because he wanted to stall before throwing his next pitch. In his prior outing he was trying to hold Konerko, for crying out loud.
I'm sure he'll grow out of it. 2008 is his first major dose of adversity, and he hasn't handled it well, and I'm not sure we should have expected him to handle it well, and the middle of a pennant race isn't the best time for him to have to figure this stuff out.* But I think he will, and I look forward to his 2009 and beyond.
How often does a young pitcher recover from the yips (or other mental adversity?). I can't actually think of any though, admittedly, I'm not an expert on the early part of most pitchers careers.
Cla Meredith?
* Kids, don't try that sentence structure at school.
Unless that is meant to suggest Buchholz is going to become the second coming of Ryan, not only in K-rate but also in his better-a-walk-than-a-hit approach, it's just a cute comparison without any meaning behind it.
I think people are getting way ahead of themselves. I look at a guy like Cliff Lee, who had pretty good stuff and looked absolutely done after some early success, and not just turn himself around, but actually wind up being a much better pitcher. Failure can be a great teacher.
Dice-K is allready comfortably filling Boston's quota in that category.
Jeremy Guthrie is another example. Randy Johnson of course.
I think everyone tends to follow the average age curve (peak at 27-28) too slavishly. That's the average, but career paths take all different shapes.
Ryan was also in the top ten in innings pitched nine years of his career. Yeah, he walked a lot of guys, but he struck out more; his real problem was his K/BB ratio, which dropped to a then-career low of 1.181 with the 1971 Mets, a figure that had trended down every single year he had been with the team. Transferred to the Angels, he set a new high at 2.096 immediately, and while he wasn't able to keep it quite at that level (two years later it was back down to 1.409), he still managed to place in the top three in Cy Young voting three times in his eight years with the Angels.
Your point was to denigrate Buchholz' future value based on what he's done to date. The Mets decided, at the ripe old age of 24, that Nolan Ryan couldn't hack it any more and was done as a real pitching prospect. I'm not sure what your definition of "staff ace" includes, but it strikes me that Hall of Fame levels of production would fit that description.
But Nolan Ryan still has pretty much nothing to do with that. For a whole bunch of reasons, he's a unique pitcher in the history of baseball. Being cute by naming pitchers who teams gave up on who later went on to be great doesn't prove anything as it relates to Buchholz, except that he's not totally finished at this age, which only one or two people (and again, not me) are suggesting. It's just being clever to show off clever you can be.
his BABIP is .366, but K rate remains the same and he's walking 1 more batter per 9 than last year's cup of coffee. the big difference is home run rate which suggests that he's chucking the ball up there right in the wheelhouse. 7 of 11 homers have come with the count at 1-0 or 2-0, which suggests to me that he's just trying to throw a strike and so probably grooves a pitch (fastball, curve, slider, or change i don't know). if batters know that's coming, then they'll wait on it. the other 4 homers are on the first pitch, and batters are hitting .477 with a 1.239 OPS on the first pitch. says to me that he's just trying to get the ball up there and batters have figured out that he's going to throw a certain pitch when he gets in trouble early in the count. it seems to me this is probably a case of advance scouting really having his number. he will just have to learn to pitch around trouble, to hit spots. i think he can do that with a little breather in the minors. he just needs to collect himself. ankiel never had the control that buchholz has, so i'm not worried about buchholz.
according to fangraphs, his average velocity is up on the fastball (92.6 MPH), but he's throwing it less (46.7%) and the curveball more (21.5%). maybe they're sitting on the curve, but i don't know that he throws the curve at 0-0, 1-0, and 2-0. thoughts?
I thought there was a movement to destroy all traces of the phrase "X says hi". But it seems to have come back.
I haven't been following the Buchholz saga that closely (other things going on), but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that something is physically wrong with him.
-- MWE
2-9 76.0 93 63 57 41 72 6.75
Mike Pelfrey, earlier this season:
2-6 56.0 70 33 31 25 29 4.98
In some ways, Pelfrey wasn't as bad, and it hadn't gone on quite as long. But Pelfrey's W/K and K/IP ratios were worse.
Anyone inclined to just give up on Buchholz might want to consider what Mr. Pelfrey has done since . . . . and their respective birthdays.
Irony says hi.
On the day that Pelfrey was 2-6, 4.98, he had at least managed to sprinkle in 5 decent starts among his poor ones, giving someone observing him reason to think that he could improve since there were times he was an actual effective pitcher.
There's no such comfort with Buchholz. His last 10 appearances, covering 9 starts and 1 relief appearance, have been uniformly awful. There wasn't a single positive appearance in any of those games. Not one. His ERA has gone up in every appearance he's made since May 7. And he kept getting worse and worse and worse, culminating in last night's embarrassment and meltdown.
I cannot believe this is the same pitcher who dominated the EL and AAA last year with incredible peripherals. It's galling to see how far he's fallen. Maybe we can say he was rushed to the Show, but he was unbelievable in the minors.
I don't really think the Pelfrey example is all that helpful Sam, honestly. Pelfrey at least showed flashes of being a good pitcher. Buchholz has shown nothing, nothing at all, since May 6. He's regressed terribly from whatever promise he showed last year and in April. Had he even had one single start of say 6IP, 3 ER amidst his decline I might feel better about his chances of rebounding. He has not, and I am extremely skeptical he'll bounce back soon to show the electrifying stuff he had last year. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Randy Johnson says hi.
Edit: And I see he's said hi a few times before already.
In any case, there are plenty of power pitchers who start off with little command and develop it as their career progresses. Jason Schmidt is another off the top.
I wanted very badly to pull the trigger last year and package him to Texas for Teixeira as was rumored. And that was before he blew up this year. He won't be traded now, because the Sox would be lucky to get four rosin bags in return.
An interesting question is how contending teams manage to break young pitchers into the big leagues without having their struggles affect the teams' pennant chances? Looking at the standings, there's a chance that Buchholz' struggles will be a big reason that the Sox miss the postseason. The Sox went 3-12 in games that Buchholz started this year; that's a killer to a club in a life-and-death fight for the playoffs. Yet it's commonly accepted that all young pitchers struggle. What's the best way to mitigate that damage if they do struggle?
Randy Johnson has OCD.
Let them apprentice in Oakland for a while?
True, though he likely owes half his starts to injuries to Matsusaka, Wakefield and now Beckett.
The Red Sox and Yankees have the issue of trying to contend while turning over their team and integrated younger players. In the grand scheme of things, that's not a bad problem to have, really; lower payroll teams usually have to endure a couple of years in the wildnerness if they want/need to retool.
Young pitchers are the same as everyone else- you stick with them when the project to help the team, until you don't think they're likely to help the team. Some times you get a bad one, sometimes you get a good one who beats all expectations. I do think it makes sense for a contending team (ie, a 92+ win team) to limit the number of starts they're expecting from rookie pitchers, to limit variability, but the Sox clearly were looking for maybe a season and a half of starts from Buchholz and Lester, and that's perfectly reasonable.
Earl Weaver liked middle relief.
He had trouble when he first came back to the bigs, but in September '07 Lester went 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA and 26 K's in 29 IP. As was his usual pattern he walked more than you'd like (17), but I wouldn't describe him as struggling late in '07. The Sox also had a larger cushion last year than this.
You are right about him early in '08, but you can be a lot more patient with a guy early in the year than late because of the time left in the year to make a deal or allow them to improve.
The point about variability of younger pitchers is well-taken. They are volatile enough to drive a man insane. Like me, for example.
He won't be traded now, but that sentence overstates things considerably. His stock is definitely low enough that it makes no sense to sell right now though.
Guy-Who-Pedantically-Points-Out-Misuses-Of-The-Word-Irony says hi.
EDIT: So good I had to change my handel
At this point I'm unsure myself. I am tempted to go see him pitch in Portland since Hadlock is a block from my workplace and it will be interesting to see if he makes any progress whatsoever.
Your mom.
Oliver Perez- at least 5-6 times already :-)
Greg Maddux went 6-14 5.61 with 74 BB in 156 ip his first full year.
Ryan Dempster had an ERA+ of 120 in 2000, then complete;y imploded as an Sp hitting bottom in 2003 with 70 walks in 116 IP
Haren spit the bit with STL in 2003
John Lackey couldn't make the third out for the first couple full years of his career. Ervin Santana melted down on the road or in the daylight. Both seem to have fixed their problems.
he's using the change a lot. 25.2% of all pitches this year were changes. that's more than pedro throws, though i don't know about when he was with the sox.
Yanks in Hughes and Kennedy starts: 3-12.
Ervin Santana and John Lackey have gone through this in the past, too.
It can be fixed....
{EDIT} - What Scareduck said.
I quote from your earlier post:
24-year-old pitchers in the majors usually get better (unless their name happens to be Oliver Perez -- it happens that sometimes they don't). 24-year-old John Lackey couldn't find the plate, usually when trying to make the last out of the inning, and it caused him (and the fans watching) endless grief... but according to you, he had no hope of ever being the staff ace. Chad Billingsley as a 21-year-old had similar problems... I could go on. The bottom line is that the "upside" you perceive as missing in Buchholz or any other young phenom who fails to phenominate in the Show is just a matter of maturing, and neither you nor I nor anybody else can say with any finality what their destiny is. Of course he won't be the staff ace if he can't find the plate. That's a tautology, and trivially evident.
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