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1. HGM Posted: November 14, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#3009353)I love how the people who are essentially whining over this deal are ignoring that Jacobs was hitting in ####### Miami...
Jacobs in Miami, 2008: .238/.273/.484
Jacobs outside of Miami: .258/.325/.547
Jacobs in Miami, career: .247/.293/.481
Anyways, Jacobs had an OPS+ (112) in 2008 that surpassed everybody on the Royals other than Aviles and DeJesus.
Now, if only Dayton would get the ####### hint on Ross Gload.
He has, hasn't he? He just mentioned him as a OF/1b utility man and pinch-hitter. I don't see why anyone thinks that Moore truly believes Gload is the answer at first base.
So I guess all that OBP-love earlier from Dayton was just posing.
I think he answered that question pretty solidly. Great OBP guys are harder to find. Its not like he could have just gone out and found someone better than Jacobs at the same price.
The idea that you don't upgrade your team just because it doesn't address every freakin need you have is so mind-blowingly backwards.
Swisher would have been a good target though, but I'm not sure if they could afford the risk with his salary.
Is this the most incomprehensible contract of the last 5 years? $12M per for a 31 year old bad defense corner-OF coming off 116, 75, 116 OPS+ seasons? This deal had no chance of working out. Neaglesque.
I agree. That was a headscratcher. Still is. Ah well, just 3 years to go!
Gload probably isn't the best option for a backup corner outfielder. Sadly for Teahen, he's probably a better OF utility person than Gload.
Ideally, this is the positional lineup i'd have with the current team
C: Buck/Olivo (pick one)
1B: Butler
2B: No ####### idea, Callaspo?
3B: Gordon
SS: Aviles
LF: Teahen
CF: DeJesus
RF: Guillen
DH: Jacobs
Right now, the Royals need another infielder (a real utility guy), and another outfielder (preferably a right-handed hitter). Their main need is good spare parts. They have a solid outfield, good hitters on the corners, and somewhat stable pitching (even if picking Hochevar over Lincecum was a bad move).
Just think, if Moore's Plan A had come to fruition the Royals would have signed Andruw Jones and moved DeJesus to left. Things could have not worked out in a completely different way.
The Guillen signing was due in part to the complete lack of OF prospects in the system and in part a PR move in the tradition of spending money on a player with a name familiar to some folks.
A slightly above average hitter, in his 30's, who plays a crappy corner OF is not worth too much. Maybe 2 wins above replacement.
At this point Guillen is basically a worse version of Reggie Sanders in his itinerant phase. For a team on the verge of playoff contention with a black hole in the OF, maybe you overpay on a 1 or 2 year deal.
For KC, a one year deal in the $5-7M range (like the Mariners had just given Guillen in 2007) made some sense. Try to improve incrementally, not blocking a prospect, etc.
Locking him up for 3 years at big dollars was insane.
We had that once, too.
It was a bad deal, but Gary Matthews, Juan Pierre, Barry Zito, Carl Pavano, Kaz Matsui all stand out off the top of my head as much, much worse deals. I think people paint the deal to be much worse than it actually was. When he signed, he was coming off 115 OPS+ or better in three of the last four seasons. And he was only 31 - Reggie Sanders was still pretty good into his late 30s.
Sure they overpaid, but they're the Royals, no one will play here unless the team overpays. I don't think it was an efficient use of resources, but a lot of posters act like it was the worst deal ever, when it has simply been your run of the mill poor contract, certainly not among the worst of all-time.
Ah well, just 3 years to go!
Two years, thank heavens. And I don't think he's quite as untradeable as a lot of other albatrosses out there. There are still GMs who are blinded by RBI!!!!111
Interesting comparison. Pierre is more total dollars ($44 M vs. $36M) but less per year ($8.5M vs. $12M). Pierre's a much worse hitter (84 career OPS+ vs. 100), but adds some baserunning value, and probably some defensive value as a fair/average CF, vs. no baserunning value, and negative defensive value for Guillen.
I think the "prize" goes to the Guillen contract based on it being a competetive Dodger team vs. a non-competitive Royal team. The Dodger had the money and the reason to overspend if they thought Pierre could "put them over the top". The Royals have much less money, and were nowhere close to competing for the playoffs.
I guess the reason I view it as so bad is that even if it went as well as possible, say a 120 OPS+ and average D for 3 years, what did that get the Royals? A couple more wins a year, when you're not in contention, and a B- prospect when you flip him in year three?
On the other hand, that $36M invested in Latin America and the draft could net you a lot of prospects.
For Pierre, Matthews, Pavano, Zito, we're talking about rich teams, and if the players hit their upside, they could have been the difference in making the playoffs/winning a pennant or WS. Bad deals, but they could have turned out OK.
Matsui to Houston was pretty inexplicable, but much less money, and he did post a 106 OPS+ at 2B for Houston this year. If his D was any good, that's not bad for $5M.
I'm pessimistic on the Royals, but I don't think its completely inconceivable that they could contend within the lifetime of that contract. They won 75 games this year despite giving substantial playing time to awful players like Ross Gload and Tony Pena Jr. Bill James thinks that if things go right, they could win 85. In a pretty mediocre AL Central, that's contention.
I'm not saying the Royals ARE going to contend, just that its not unreasonable for management to plan on contending over the next two seasons. And I don't think signing Guillen has prevented them from spending elsewhere. They spent more on the draft than any team in MLB history, and while they didn't land any of the top Latin American free agents, they were more aggressive that they have been in the past. I also think there is some value in having a young team learn how to win. Now, that can be offset if one of the guys supposedly helping you win swings at everything and is a total dick in the clubhouse....
I just don't agree with the prevailing philsophy on this site that if you're young and a small market team, you shouldn't spend any money on free agents in an attempt to get better.
I wasn't talking about the Jacobs deal, but this:
"...certainly you want to have them at the top of your lineup and the bottom of your lineup. In the middle of your lineup, you’ve got to have guys that are going to produce runs."
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