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Saturday, August 29, 2009

Spector: True, True, True: The Three True Outcomes

Robothal mentioned Three True Outcomes on the MLB Network the other day…and it was as if he was slinging secret Fusangese slang to the gang.

The Three True Outcomes—walks, strikeouts and home runs—are so called because they are the only possible endings to a plate appearance that do not depend on the fielders. We’ve been over that before, as earlier this season, Carlos Pena of the Rays had a long stretch of plate appearances where he did nothing but walk, strike out or homer.

So, as we get toward the home stretch, whose times at the plate depend least frequently on the fielders? Well, with a little calculation, I was able to create a leaderboard. I hope that you’re as oddly piqued by the phenomenon as I am.

Here are the hitters, ranked by percentage, with the highest and lowest percentages of Three True Outcomes this season
Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks -- 52% (61 BB, 171 K, 39 HR)
Carlos Pena, Rays -- 51.6 % (83 BB, 152 K, 37 HR -- leads AL in all three)
Adam Dunn, Nationals -- 51.4% (97 BB, 145 K, 34 HR)
Jim Thome, White Sox -- 49.8% (69 BB, 108 K, 23 HR)
Jack Cust, A's -- 48% (75 BB, 142 K, 20 HR)
Russell Branyan, Mariners -- 47.1% (58 BB, 148 K, 31 HR)
Ryan Howard, Phillies -- 44.8% (58 BB, 153 K, 35 HR)
Jason Bay, Red Sox -- 44.7% (80 BB, 123 K, 28 HR)
Nick Swisher, Yankees -- 42% (76 BB, 104 K, 21 HR)
Mike Cameron, Brewers -- 41.9% (69 BB, 125 K, 19 HR)

Repoz Posted: August 29, 2009 at 12:12 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: sabermetrics

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1. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 01:35 PM (#3308496)

walks, strikeouts and home runs—are [...] the only possible endings to a plate appearance that do not depend on the fielders

Well, they are by far the three most common. The hit-by-pitch would be the fourth (sometimes common enough that Jason Kendall or Craig Biggio would have to be seen as a "four-true-outcome" batter. The foul bunt with two strikes would be another, and there are several miscellaneous ones like stepping on home plate while swinging or hitting a baserunner with a ground ball.

Moral: never say "only" if you expect to be quoted on an Internet board :)

{/pedantry}

2. AROM Posted: August 29, 2009 at 02:53 PM (#3308511)

Hitting a baserunner with a groundball isn't included because from the batter's perspective, he just hit a ground ball. Whether it hits a runner, or if there even is runner at the time, is beyond his control.

If we want to get technical, the homerun is not always a true outcome, at least not when Torii Hunter is in the field.

3. DCW3 Posted: August 29, 2009 at 02:55 PM (#3308512)

The foul bunt with two strikes would be another...

Which counts as a strikeout.

4. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 29, 2009 at 02:55 PM (#3308513)

If we want to get technical, the homerun is not always a true outcome, at least not when Torii Hunter is in the field.

Or when Richie Garcia is the right field umpire.

5. Rouglas Odor Eaters Posted: August 29, 2009 at 02:58 PM (#3308517)

Dropped third strike depends on fielders.

6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 29, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3308519)

Dropped third strike is still a strikeout. But that means the outcome of some small percentage of recorded strikeouts is not a "true" outcome.

7. ballfan Posted: August 29, 2009 at 03:46 PM (#3308533)

Ah, the foul bunt with two strikes is a strikeout, and it is the one strikeout with a true outcome because it does not require the catcher to catch the ball or to have an assist on the strikeout.

8. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 29, 2009 at 03:47 PM (#3308534)

Carlos Pena, Rays -- 51.6 % (83 BB, 152 K, 37 HR -- leads AL in all three)

That's very impressive. How many players have won the Triple Crown of the TTO? Mike Schmidt did it back in 1983, and Mickey Mantle did it in 1958. Jim Thome has won all three legs, but never in the same year.

Babe Ruth did it four times, but he never even struck out as many as 100 times in a season.

9. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:18 PM (#3308549)

That's very impressive. How many players have won the Triple Crown of the TTO?

Unless you see something romantic in strikeouts, what would be even more impressive would be to win the first two and leave the strikeout title for someone else. I'd imagine that Williams and Bonds might have run up a few of those double honors.

10. Mike Emeigh

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:31 PM (#3308552)

But that means the outcome of some small percentage of recorded strikeouts is not a "true" outcome.

If you want to get technical, only those strikeouts that occur with a runner on first and fewer than two outs, or result from foul bunts on the third strike, are "true"; every other strikeout requires that the catcher handle the third strike cleanly or that he recover in time to either tag the runner or throw him out at first.

-- MWE

EDIT: I see #7 mentioned some of what I said, but forgot about the runner on first/fewer than two outs bit of it.

11. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:38 PM (#3308555)

Carlos Pena is making a bid to be in the Top Ten of weirdest career paths in baseball.

Right now the guy is a hair away from a .900 OPS with a BA of .220. And not in limited playing time. Over 500 plate appearances.

That's gotta be up there in someone's chart of something.............

12. Kiko Sakata

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:40 PM (#3308557)

I went to the Cubs/Nationals game on Thursday with my son. When Adam Dunn came up the first time, I mentioned to my son, "This guy either walks, strikes out, or hits home runs every time". In his first three plate appearances of the game, he proceeded to walk, hit a home run, and strike out.

13. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:49 PM (#3308562)

14. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:52 PM (#3308563)

I went to the Cubs/Nationals game on Thursday with my son. When Adam Dunn came up the first time, I mentioned to my son, "This guy either walks, strikes out, or hits home runs every time". In his first three plate appearances of the game, he proceeded to walk, hit a home run, and strike out.

The same thing happened to me, including the conversation with my son about Dunn's TTO tendencies, when we went to a Nats-Pirates game in D.C. earlier this year. And Dunn responded by going K, HR, walk, walk, K.

15. Kiko Sakata

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:55 PM (#3308565)

You've peaked. Henceforth, every day will find your son a little bit more disillusioned by you.

I know, I thought for sure as soon as I said that, Dunn would proceed to got 2-4 with a single, double, and two groundouts or something like that. On the other hand, my son picked the Nationals' game because I told him they were the worst team in the league and he wanted to see the Cubs win. Given that the Nationals won the game 5-4, I think he's already a little disillusioned.

16. Shock Posted: August 29, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3308569)

Harvey's, I was surprised that Pena isn't just leading the field in OPS w/ a BA under .230, but destroying it:

Highest OPS, BA less than 230, with 500 PA:

Cnt Player             OPS    BA   PA Year Age
+----+-----------------+-----+-----+---+----+---+
    1 Carlos Pena        .888  .220 531 2009  31 
    2 Roy Cullenbine     .823  .224 607 1947  33 
    3 Gene Tenace        .801  .224 515 1978  31 
    4 Gorman Thomas      .780  .215 574 1985  34 
    5 Darryl Strawberry  .778  .225 541 1989  27 
    6 Gene Tenace        .778  .211 612 1974  27 
    7 David Ortiz        .773  .230 501 2009  33 
    8 Joe Morgan         .773  .230 504 1983  39 
    9 Howard Johnson     .765  .230 594 1988  27 
   10 Dave Kingman       .765  .225 531 1972  23 

That's pretty impressive. Up the BA requirement to .250 and he falls quite a bit, but still...

One other item of note: in just his 3rd season on the team, Pena is 14 HR's back of the franchise HR record held by Aubrey Huff (128.) He's 23 short of McGriff's BB record (305,) and 184 shy of Crawford's K record (645.) Of course, he's got Upton and Crawford ahead of him in K's and they will be tough to catch as long as they're playing.

17. Ray (RDP)

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3308571)

Strawberry hit .225 in 1989? I must have forgotten that.

18. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 05:26 PM (#3308575)

I still think it'd be nice to institute some sort of award to players who excel at two of the three true outcomes without making much of a dent in the third.

For those who hit lots of home runs and get plenty of walks, but don't strike out that much, you'd have the Ted Williams award.

For those who hit lots of home runs, strike out a ton, but seldom walk, you'd have the Alfonso Soriano award.

And for those who walk and strike out a lot, but have little home run power, you'd have the "Nick Swisher at Yankee Stadium award," since so far this year my namesake has 47 walks and 48 strikeouts at home, but only 3 home runs. And you call yourself a hitter's park!

19. Walt Davis Posted: August 29, 2009 at 08:14 PM (#3308647)

Russell Branyan, Mariners -- 47.1% (58 BB, 148 K, 31 HR)

It's an off-year for Branyan. For his career, he's at 51.3%.

Pena also has what is probably one of the stranger on-contact lines in history: 339/823. Almost 2/3 of his hits are for extra bases and he has more HR than singles. McGwire did that in 95 and 99; Bonds did it in 2001 (73 HR to 49 singles) and almost in 99. Those are the only ones I've found so far (no easy way to do this in PI).

20. Mike Emeigh

Posted: August 29, 2009 at 08:24 PM (#3308655)

McGwire did that in 95 and 99; Bonds did it in 2001 (73 HR to 49 singles) and almost in 99. Those are the only ones I've found so far (no easy way to do this in PI).

McGwire actually did it four times: 1995 (39/35), 1998 (70/61), 1999 (65/58), and 2001 (29/23). Bonds's 2001 is the only other season in which a player had more HR than singles (minimum 50 hits). Shane Spencer in 1998 had 25 hits: 9 singles, 6 doubles, and 10 HR. Carlos Zambrano, in 2006, had 11 hits - 6 HR and 5 singles.

-- MWE

21. jwb Posted: August 30, 2009 at 04:40 AM (#3308955)

St. Nick: Here ya go:

WILLIAMS AL 2008
Joe Mauer 6.8

SORIANO AL 2008
Carlos Gomez 20.2

SWISHER @ NYS AL 2008
Jack Cust 45.9

WILLIAMS NL 2008
Albert Pujols 13.5

SORIANO NL 2008
Mark Reynolds 27.4

SWISHER @ NYS NL 2008
Mark Reynolds 39.2

Based on % of (+/- HR +/- BB +/- K)/PA, for players with 3.1 PA/scheduled game. I didn't do any adding of PAs for players who were close. I would be open to weighting HRs, BBs, and Ks somehow.

22. zenbitz Posted: August 30, 2009 at 06:08 AM (#3309010)

The Three True Outcomes—walks, strikeouts and home runs—are so called because they are the only possible endings to a plate appearance that do not depend on the fielders.

DIPS revisionism ho!!

That doesn't seem the way I remember it back in the days of the Rob Deer Fan Club. I think it was just thought that Rob Deer was cool (and underrated).

TTO has since been coopted by the DIPS folks. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

23. kthejoker Posted: August 31, 2009 at 04:49 PM (#3309788)

The only other players to even hit 10 home runs and have more home runs than singles:

Frank Thomas, 2005

24. PreservedFish Posted: August 31, 2009 at 05:22 PM (#3309837)

DIPS revisionism ho!!

I noticed that too.

25. Danny Posted: August 31, 2009 at 05:39 PM (#3309863)

That doesn't seem the way I remember it back in the days of the Rob Deer Fan Club. I think it was just thought that Rob Deer was cool (and underrated).

TTO has since been coopted by the DIPS folks. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

From Jazayerli's 2000 article:

Together, the Three True Outcomes distill the game to its essence, the battle of pitcher against hitter, free from the distractions of the defense, the distortion of foot speed or the corruption of managerial tactics like the bunt and his wicked brother, the hit-and-run.

(Some in our ranks claim that the hit-by-pitch meets the spirit of the Three True Outcomes and should be included in their ranks. The issue is to be decided at the Council of Oakland later this year.)

Prophet Branyan has again been exiled to Triple-A Buffalo by an intolerant regime in Cleveland, which is why we have had to take such desperate measures. We will hold Dr. Jazayerli hostage until our demand is met: Russ Branyan must be allowed to practice his beliefs freely. He must be allowed to spread the Gospel of the Three True Outcomes to fans at major-league parks everywhere. He must be granted the privilege of rendering the opposing defense utterly irrelevant more than half the time. We will not rest until this is so.

26. Benji Gil Gamesh is not being paid to be that guy Posted: August 31, 2009 at 05:42 PM (#3309869)

Reynolds' 2009 is already one of the top 25 strikeout seasons ever. He could obliterate his own record while posting a ~140 OPS+.

That's sublime and ridiculous at the same time.

27. Biscuit_pants Posted: August 31, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3309914)

A foul tip third strike is a strikeout that requires a fielder. Has that ever been shown to be a talent or is it pretty much the same for all catchers?

28. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: August 31, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3309933)

SWISHER @ NYS NL 2008
Mark Reynolds 39.2

Kind of strange to give an award for little power to a guy with 40 HR.

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Spector: True, True, True: The Three True Outcomes

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