Technically, aren't all our days numbered?

Except Matt Wieters. He is immortal.

Has there been any talk about Magadan working w/ Beltre to tweak / improve his approach at the plate? I'm asking because including Pena on that prosective FA list, given his awful year, seems a little odd, unless maybe Magadan can do something to get him away from pulling hard-hit grounders into that exaggerated shift defenses use against him.

I might have less than no idea where Beltre will end up next year, but don't the White Sox make sense for him?

I'm pretty sure Youkilis' days at 3b are over.

I wish reporters would stop trotting out the "Youkilis can play third!" canard. He used to play third base very well. He is now at an age where teams think about moving their third basemen over to first, not the other way around. He hasn't played consistently at the position since 2008, and the little time he did play there in '09, he didn't look very good. He can still cover third in an emergency, and that carries a great deal of value, but if Kevin Youkilis is the Sox' full-time third baseman next year, they better be signing Albert Pujols to man first, because they'll need the offense to offset the tremendous dropoff in defensive value from Beltre to Youkilis.

More likely, if the Sox lose out on Beltre (and I don't think they will, given the terrific match between player and team/surrounding hitters/ballpark), they'll slot Jed Lowrie there and try to convince Bill Hall to reprise his jack-of-all-trades status, or sign some other utility bench guy. Youkilis is simply no longer a third baseman, and it would be nice if reporters would start recognizing that.

Beltre, a Scott Boras client, is also all-but-certain to test the free-agent waters before discussing a return to Boston.

This is either (a) poorly written or (b) untrue, because Beltre will have to decide on the option long before the free-agency period begins.

Beltre, a Scott Boras client, is also all-but-certain to test the free-agent waters before discussing a return to Boston.
This is either (a) poorly written or (b) untrue, because Beltre will have to decide on the option long before the free-agency period begins.

He can test the waters and then talk to Boston.

This is either (a) poorly written or (b) untrue, because Beltre will have to decide on the option long before the free-agency period begins.

I bet he has already decided to decline the option.

the option was just a way to cheat the luxury tax. i'm pretty sure he always planned on declining it.

Then it's poorly worded, because the article seems to say he'll "test the market" before he decides to take the optons.

Beltre will sign a 4-5 year deal for anywhere from 12 to 18 million per year. He might return to Boston, but the depends on them offering a lucrative extension. There is no chance he returns on that option. Well, very little chance. I guess if he broke a leg and was likely to miss half of 2011 he could do the option since it beats sitting at home with no pay.

Beltre will sign a 4-5 year deal for anywhere from 12 to 18 million per year.

I'm not saying it won't happen, because it does all the time, but betting 60M or so on this season becoming the expected performance level for a 3B entering his age 32 season seems a trifle...optimistic, let's say.

I'm not saying it won't happen, because it does all the time, but betting 60M or so on this season becoming the expected performance level for a 3B entering his age 32 season seems a trifle...optimistic, let's say.

Considering that the Mariners gave him $64 million after a much better season when he was six years younger, I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's not going to get $60 million.

Beltre just had a mammoth year, which followed a bad year and several other good years. He'll probably get something like 4 years, $40M. Should Boston pay that price? I dunno.

Oh, I wouldn't bet on him repeating this season. His 2005-2008 steady performance for the Mariners is more likely, adjusted up a bit if he's playing in a better park for him.

Maybe nobody will go over 3 years. But I don't have any doubt he'll get more than 10 million, and for multiple years. The upper range of his earning potential may not be quite Torii Hunter territory (though given age and proven performance, no reason it should not) but most certainly will beat 1 year, 10 million.

This is either (a) poorly written

Of course it's poorly written. Only someone dangerously stupid would hyphenate "all but certain" when it's not being used as an adjectival phrase.

#16--I've been in a heated battle with an author over hyphenation of adjectival phrases (he doesn't think they're needed, I do). It's a pet peeve of mine.

Youk at 3B for 120+ games almost certainly cannot happen at this point. Lowrie at 3B is the obvious option here, if the Red Sox feel he can play 120 games and not get hurt. His production won't match Beltre's, but he might give you a bit more OBP even as he gives you less SLG. And with a full, healthy year he might get to 10 HR/30 doubles--the guy the Red Sox hope he'd turn into is a Bill Mueller type.

There's a lot of cash to be had to pursue options if they decline Papi's option, Beltre signs elsewhere, VMart leaves, they trade Papelbon, non-tender Okajima, etc. I'm not sure what options they'd pursue, though:

DH - Maybe bring back Papi at less money? Rotate the slot between guys?

C - Would we be OK with Salty for 110 games and Varitek for 52? And Dusty Brown as the 3rd catcher?

3B - Lowrie, but we'd need a super-sub and I doubt Bill Hall comes back.

Losing VMart, Beltre, and Papi would be three big hits to the offensive production, and I'm not sure the internal folks would adequately replace that, even if you figured that--owing to injuries--the return of Youk, Pedroia, Cameron, and Ellsbury gives you production over the Nava, McDonald, Cash, Lowrie/Hall/Patterson types they've run out there.

I'm still sort of hoping we go and get Lee and deal Dice-K, but Lee's back issues of late are somewhat worrisome, in that he's not exactly a spring chicken and has thrown a fair number of innings in 2008-2010...

I'm still sort of hoping we go and get Lee and deal Dice-K

I'm not sure they need to throw more money at the starting rotation, even w/ Beckett & Lackey (& of course, Dice-K) making folks worry. If anything, I'd think Boston would want to try & keep Beltre while making a run at Crawford as well, & then flip the spare parts those acquisitions would create, and then MAGIC.

#16--I've been in a heated battle with an author over hyphenation of adjectival phrases (he doesn't think they're needed, I do). It's a pet peeve of mine.

I tend to over-hyphenate, I know, at least judging from my edits here at work, not to mention other stuff I read --* most recently Daniel Okrent's Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition (assuming that Okrent isn't an idiot, which I'm pretty sure he's not, & that his editors aren't either ...** of which there's no guarantee, since I remember stumbling over one sentence that was absolute gibberish).


*I very much over-dash, too.

**And to over-ellipsize -- Is that a word? Do I care? Apparently, I don't -- as well.

Only someone dangerously stupid would hyphenate "all but certain" when it's not being used as an adjectival phrase.

If that's your threshold for dangerous stupidity, it's no wonder you're holed up in your mom's basement. :)

I might have less than no idea where Beltre will end up next year, but don't the White Sox make sense for him?

Nah. Kenny Williams doesn't play Boras' game (especially with clients who are desired by multiple teams), and they have an interesting prospect at third, Brent Morel, who was just called up. He's got a great glove.

If that's your threshold for dangerous stupidity, it's no wonder you're holed up in your mom's basement. :)

It's even worse -- I'm holed up in my mom's basement even though I don't have a mom (she's been dead since 3/84), whose house in turn didn't have a basement.

(The house we lived in when during my first-grade year had sort of a quasi-basement ... that is, a space down a short flight of stairs that we used for storage, but actually I'm pretty sure it was very close to ground-level.)

A few things:

1) Echoing AROM, I'd say Beltre gets 3/33M or 4/40M, and probably not from Boston. But he'd be worth that money even if he reverted to his Seattle form, so I'd be happy if the Sox gave it to him.
2) Lowrie wouldn't be great at 3rd, but he'd be cheap, and probably give production like .270/.350/.430. Still worth seeing what Lowrie can do with a full year of health. Though if he can't do that next year, it's probably time for the Red Sox to give up on him since he's been injured in different ways his entire career so far.
3) I'm not sure Salty can catch even 110 games.
4) There's no need to move Youk to third anymore unless the market leads to a first baseman. But how do we know Youk can't play the position anymore?

It's hard to see why Beltre shouldn't get at least Chone Figgins money -- other than the fact that everybody now looks at the Chone Figgins' contract and thinks "I'm not gonna do that!" :-)

Casting Lowrie as 'starting 3B' doesn't really solve anything because it just creates a cascade of other spots to fill.

But first, Bill Hall. Nobody thinks there's any chance he comes back to the Sox next season? They've got a $9.25m club option ($0.5m buyout) for 2011 and I can see them picking up the option as part of signing him to a 2-3 year extension or something. Does it really seem that there are a bunch of teams out there that see him as a starting player that they need to acquire?

Because if Hall and Beltre both leave, there are holes all over the place. Scutaro has been an absolute soldier for the Sox this season but (while IANAD) it sounds like he's really hurting himself by continuing to play almost every day. Not to mention that shortstops in their late 30's with back, neck and shoulder problems don't tend to hold up for very long. I think that at some point (soon) when the AL playoff race is truly over, he should be shut down for the year (assuming they have anybody that could credibly play SS for the remainder of the season).

Braves need a third baseman and might have some money to play with if they could get Chipper to retire.