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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
MacShame: The Final Roll of the Dice?
Matsuzaka, until Monday’s struggle, had been serviceable. But just as was the case three years ago in Oakland, he walked off the mound with a question mark hanging over his head, a prevailing uncertainty about what he might be able to provide going forward. In the past, the Sox have always felt compelled to let the question play itself out with some semblance of an answer. But now, the compulsion may yield to a more pragmatic approach.
There remains a chance that Matsuzaka reasserts himself after getting his neck treated. Perhaps Doubront’s innings will need to be managed, or Morales will prove a flash in the pan, or Buchholz will remain sidelined for longer than expected. And perhaps, after receiving treatment, Matsuzaka will be able to go on the same sort of effective run that characterized his performance in Triple-A and the majors in the month of June.
But perhaps not. There is an increasingly real chance that Matsuzaka’s days as a relied-upon rotation member in Boston might be done. A pitcher who was acquired to be an anchor is instead finishing his Red Sox career somewhat adrift, pushed by the currents of other members of the rotation rather than defining his own route.
Repoz
Posted: July 04, 2012 at 09:12 AM | 67 comment(s)
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1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:31 AM (#4173334)That's a hell of a trifecta...Crawford, Lackey and Dice-K, nearly $50 mil/per just taking up space and using perfectly good oxygen other, more productive humans could utilise.
I blame the 275 pitch high school game!
So rebuild right after signing 2 $20-million players and while you have prime or near-prime years of Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lester? Which veterans, exactly, would have yielded these draft picks?
As I noted elsewhere, they are 3 games out of the Wild Card right now. There are reasons for concern but the Sox have had a nightmare first half and are still in the thick of it. Rebuilding isn't necessary, playing to their ability is.
The Red Sox should have signed someone better than Carl Crawford, and they should have signed someone better than John Lackey, and the Adrian Gonzalez trade is suddenly looking bad, but I don't see how it follows from those moves not panning out that the Red Sox shouldn't have even been trying to compete. It's Homer Simpson logic - you tried your best, and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
And in this case, the "fail miserably" is a 90-win season and a .500 team that still has a chance to squeak into the playoffs.
Also, there are tickets still available at Fenway for the Sunday Night game? I'm shocked.
Texas 98
New York 96
Chicago 92
Anaheim 89
Boston 87
Toronto 85
Tampa Bay 83
Baltimore 82
Oakland 81
Cleveland 80
Detroit 79
EDIT: With Toronto's pitching being what it is I'd say there are 3 real contenders (Angels, Sox, Rays) for two spots. On another note, Oakland's quietly wormed their way into the table. Sure, still a super long-shot, but I have to assume their current position is more than most were expecting at the All-Star break.
At the risk of getting into that whole tired argument over what the defintion of a "playoff" team is, Boston looks enough like one to me right now that seeing a punted season as a preferred alternative seems crazy.
- having a 24-year-old lefty go 8-4 with a league-average ERA, while striking out more than a guy an inning;
- trying to turn a young, vlauable asset (Bard) into an even more valuable asset, as a starting pitcher. It hasn't worked, but it was a good risk to take, in my opinion, because the upside of developing a young, successful starting pitcher is so valuable;
- are seeing if a 26-year-old, hard-throwing lefty (Morales) can be a successful starter. So far, the results are definitely more than anyone could've hoped for;
- Turned the reigns at 3B over to a 23-year-old who has acquitted himself well, so far;
- Have given Nava (I know he's 29, but still was an unproven asset to the team) a lot of ABs, and have turned him into either a very valuable bench player, or even a cheap, tradable asset
- Are giving Kalish meaningful ABs;
- have a 27-year-old, cost-controlled catcher with 16 HRs in half a season;
- saved millions at SS by trading Scutaro, and Aviles has been at least as effective; in the process, Mortensen, the guy acquired in the Scutaro deal, actually looks like a useful bullpen arm.
Basically, the team took their biggest weakness in 2011 (in my opinion) - a lack of depth in the organization at almost all positions - and quickly turned into a huge strength. They had no outfielders last year who could play (JD Drew was getting ABs in those final fateful days of 2011). In a few weeks, they'll have:
- Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross, Sweeney, Nava, and Kalish - that's an excellent depth chart in the OF;
- Salty, Shoppach, and Lavarnway at catcher - they answered the long-standing question of how the Sox would handle the post-Varitek era, and they did it at a low cost, and have depth;
- they had no starting pitching depth last season (Kyle Weiland was pitching waaaaay too much in 2011). Now, they have Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Morales, and Cook - I'm not even talking about Matsuzaka or Bard.
- the bullpen is very deep now - Aceves, Atchison, Miller, Padilla, Albers, Mortensen, Melanson - later this year, you'll probably have Bard and Bailey back. That is an extremely deep bullpen.
Forget about Ellsbury, Crawford, Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz - if Gonzalez and Pedroia were being themselves, this team would be in a playoff position today - despite all of changes described above. I think Valentine and Cherington have done a very good job this year in a difficult situation, and have made 2013 and beyond a little better in the process...
I'd say they've been playing over their heads actually. Nava, Morales, Doubront. Now more than likely Nava will have to sit for a guy who hasn't had an OBP above .300 in 1 1/2 years. In the second half they have 16 games against the Yanks, 11 against the Rays, 6 against the Rangers (?) 6 against the Angels.
And how long are we going to see
Punto
Aviles
Hurt Pedey
Underachieving AGon?
I don't think they have a chance, but I said that a long time ago.
I don't really see how. The BP has been solid, so they wouldn't benefit from more innings from Aceves, and I think just about anyone else would have blown the same number of games since there isn't a 'Papelbon' in the pen (BARD is seen through hazy memory tinted glasses when people think about him). Now if the pen sucked, then yeah having Aceves as a long-man would be great.
But his underlying component stats and actual pitching have been good. 40 K, 13 BB, 3 HR, 36 H in 42 IP. Set loose for an inning or two at a time, he's developed a legitimate swing-and-miss fastball, and his curve has been a very nice secondary pitch. I think he's a perfectly reasonable relief ace.
But Middlebrooks has plus power and makes hard contact. He should hit more flyballs for home runs than the usual player (there is massive difference between players in HR/FB numbers) and he should hit for a good BABIP. If Middlebrooks can play good defense at 3B while putting up a 110 OPS+, he's a very valuable player.
3B: Constant, niggling injuries to WMB...lots of Punto
SS: The same Aviles we have now
2B: An injured Pedey
1B: Improvement but not on last years level
C: Slight regression
LF: Crawford better than 2011 but still sucks
CF: Not last years Ells, but better than Kalish/Byrd.
RF: Same Ross
DH: Same Papi, maybe a little worse given the schedule.
SP: Beckett, Morales, Doubront, Cook, Lester would be my ideal rotation. Anybody else in the mix is just a drag. That's a decent quintet that keeps you in games.
BP: A little regression.
81-81
Did you know Franklin Morales has started two postseason games?
Not his name.
I'm not bemoaning the loss of him as a multi-inning reliever, but the loss of all the games he has blown. I strongly disagree that anyone else would have blown the same number of games. The man has 6 losses in a half season!
2008 Baseball America Top Ten Prospects (pitchers only)
#3 Joba Chamberlain
#4 Clay Buchholz
#7 Clayton Kershaw
#8 Franklin Morales
#9 Homer Bailey
#10 David Price
Which is to say I agree with Tom. I love the idea of getting these "post-prospects." Not sure that's the right term but some guys just take awhile to figure it out. Andrew Miller is doing the same thing to a lesser extent. I don't think Morales is ever going to be a star but I wouldn't be shocked if he turns out to be a very useful MLB pitcher.
So basically "everything that is going wrong will continue to go wrong, everything that's gone right will regress." Possible but unfairly pessimistic in my view.
He looks like a good reliever, but "very good"? Have you seen some of the years other relivers around the league are having?
But all I can see in the previous few years is that they brought in ex-first-round busts David Aardsma and Kyle Snyder to join the bullpen ... they signed the twin Royals busts Runelvys Hernandez and Miguel Ascencio as well. And they brought back their own ex-prospect Kason Gabbard after losing him for Eric Gagne trade.
Any answer other than "Mets are in second" is a lie.
I probably would have too but the division is entirely over .500. That changes the perceptions a bit. I think part of what makes the Tigers more surprising (to me) is that they are 40-42 with a PR to match. They're getting great work from Cabrera and Verlander, Fielder has been very good and the pitching staff looks reminiscent of last year.
edit: coke to biscuit
We all make choices in the importance of various measures of evaluation, but at some point small sample-size noise becomes predictive. For Pythag, when is that, generally? After twenty games? Forty games? 100 games?
The question is not about Pyth record in the abstract, but Pyth record in relation to real wins, or in relation to various other measures more or less regressed from on the field results.
I'm not citing Pyth because I think Pyth is a sure measure of team quality 80 games into the season, but because I prefer Pyth to real W-L as a measure of team quality 80 games into the season.
Given that actual standings (and playoffs) are generated by record, my inclination is to pay more attention to record than to Pythag.
Understood, and respected. But how have you become convinced of this?
Clay Davenport, "Playoff Odds Report: Redux":
Virtually every stat can be used that way. I don't think you'd find anywhere here at BTF (well, maybe a few) who would take the approach you suggest. I think most folks here have a metric(s) that they trust more than others.
For example, I'm a big fan of K/BB rates for both hitters and pitchers. I find it rarely steers me wrong. For that reason I'm not real high on Will Middlebrooks. I desperately want him to be a star and he does things that are exciting but if he keeps up the K/BB rate he has I don't see him being a long-term success.
PR is the same thing. It seems to me (and this is anecdotal, not something I've studied) that teams who over/under perform their PR will regress to that point at some point.
I don't think MCoA is being inconsistent when he says he thinks the Sox are better than 42-40 because of their PR. He could be wrong (I agree with him FWIW) but I don't think there is anything fanboyish in his statements here.
Tm W L GB
NYY 93 62
TBR 85 69 7.5
TOR 78 74 13.5
BOS 77 77 15.5
BAL 77 78 16.0
Tm W L
DET 86 66
CHW 79 72 6.5
CLE 75 79 12.0
KCR 70 81 15.5
MIN 57 97 30.0
Tm W L
TEX 95 57
LAA 81 71 14.0
OAK 76 77 19.5
SEA 59 96 37.5
Agree and agree.
Torre-era Yankee teams had a way of outperforming PR fairly dramatically on a rather consistent basis. I think a lot of that was the generally strong bullpens in the Torre era.
Remember when Jack Zduriencik was one of the great up and coming GMs in the game? Suffice it to say that's looking like less and less of a good call all the time.
The Mets were outperforming Pythag by a ton in the first couple months, and did it with the highest bullpen ERA in the game. They also had a great record in 1-run games. Actually watching those games made me realize that a bad bullpen can also trigger a supposedly "lucky" record. The pattern was that the Mets would squander a 3-4 run lead and eke out a 1 run win, or that they would go into the last innings down only a run, but end up losing by a handful. I'm not suggesting that bad bullpens will similarly outperform pythag, just that experience underlined how much randomness there is in these numbers.
If anyone is willing I would be happy to do a BRef sponsorship wager. Say take the mid of some Saber-friendly stat between Crawford's 2011 line and his up thru 2010 career average. I would take the over
Looks like Bob Zupcic's page is already taken but I would be willing to pick someone similar...
Not in the ST crowd, but IMO, it depends if he is actually healthy or Red Sox healthy, like Pedroia and Gonzalez. If actually healthy, I agree with MCoA. If not, well, teh suck seems likely.
Give me some numbers and i'll probably take you up on it. Throw in some kind of injury clause too, to protect yourself.
Healthy infielders on the 40 man;
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Nick Punto
SS - Mike Aviles
3B - Mauro Gomez?
SS - Jose Iglesias
If Middlebrooks is healthy enough to play that would help. If they decide to put Pedro Ciriaco on the 40 man they'll have to waive someone. Eyeballing it the options would seem to be Lars Anderson or Stolmy Pimentel. Alternatively they could get creative and waive Shoppach and promote Lavarnway at the same time. I can't imagine a guy like Albers would get punted and they just called up Justin Germano so I assume he is sticking around. Clearly they have to promote either Iglesias or Ciriaco.
I also think the Red Sox are going to ####### kill me. Right now October is shaping up as a "watch the DVDs from 2004 and 2007" month.
I'm really confused. Why on earth wouldn't you just bring up Iglesias and play Aviles at 3B and Punto at 2B? Aviles has actually played 3B in the majors (unlike whoever played there yesterday--Gomez?), and while Iglesias may not hit he can at least field. Why would you mess around more with the 40-man when a solution on the 40-man is staring you in the face?
This. Play Iglesias. See what happens. I bet if you played Punto every day for three weeks he'd actually be a half-decent little player...
I'm glad I'm not the only one with this thought.
That aside... They won't do this. Both Crawford and Ellsbury are on the 60-day DL, which means in order to activate them two players would have to be removed from the 40-man roster. There's no way they make it three, by adding Ciriaco.
So, assuming they don't add Ciriaco... Which two do you remove from the 40-man roster, and how?
Here's the 40-man as of now:
Ortiz
Gonzalez
Pedroia
Aviles
Middlebrooks
Saltalamacchia
Ross
Lillibridge
Sweeney
Punto
Beckett
Buchholz
Lester
Morales
Doubront
Matsuzaka
Cook
Aceves
Miller
Melancon
Padilla
Albers
Tazawa
Bard
Mortensen
Hill
Atchison
Shoppach
Lavarnway
Kalish
Anderson
Pimentel
Podsednik
Nava
Iglesias
Stewart
Britton
Gomez
Germano
Lin
I don't know when Bailey will be back, but they have the same situation with him. He's on the 60-day DL, too.
I'm thinking they DFA Pimentel to try to outright him. The other will be by trade, sending two 40-man players to a team (Diamondbacks?) with an open spot on their 40-man, in return for a major leaguer (Willie Bloomquist?) and a minor-leaguer.
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