For some strange reason his career BABIP is .318 (.328/.325 '06/'07), so despite a nearly 4-1 K/W ratio, a decent HRs allowed ratio and nearly 8K/9, he's saddled with a career 4.75 ERA, which is preposterous for a pitcher of his ability. [For comparison Verlander's BABIPs are .293/.304 last two years] Someone who watches him daily can chime in with theories anytime. Good news is that he is young enough to turn it around.

Yeah, and Maroth was also around .290-.300 in Detroit, and Nate Robertson was around .280 in 2005-2006. Bonderman's consistently high BABIP is weird, and has been going on long enough to make it unlikely to be just luck. It would be interesting if we could identify some particular thing that makes Bonderman such a BABIP anomaly, but at this point I think we have to assume the stat lines we see, ERA and all, is what we're getting unless/until something changes.

Over his career, Bonderman has been "unlucky" in every season.

Year by year ERA: 4.89, 4,57, 4.08, 4.87.
FIP: 4.29, 3.92, 3.31, 4.13.
xFIP: 4.15, 4.10, 3.65, 3.89

Verlander, in contrast, has not been "unlucky".

ERA: 7.15 (in 11IP), 3.63, 3.94
FIP: 4.54, 4.44, 3.96
xFIP: 5.20, 4.67, 4.45

Since then, Bonderman has fallen apart, partying like he’s Jose Lima: 7 innings, 5 runs. 2.1 innings, 11 runs. 7 innings, 6 runs. 6 innings, 7 runs. (Note to Jim Leyland: Could you please explain why exactly the hell you let your starter pitch seven innings when he gives up six runs in the first three?)

I'm not sure which of these games (if any) you're talking about, but if it's one of them, then after those first three, he either:

1. Gave up zero runs in four innings;
2. Gave up one run in three innings.

I'm not sure, given those results, why there should be excited calls for Leyland to explain exactly what the hell he was thinking.

Since he won't be 25 until October, and was pitching in the majors at 20, I'm willing to a) write off the rookie year OPS+ of 77, and b) think that he might yet become an AAIM instead of just a LAIM (even with an unusually high BABIP).

He's always puzzled me. He is young but he has been so amazingly consistent in underpeforming FIP that it's hard to write off.

I think it makes sense to hold out hope that he becomes an elite pitcher; he has a terrific arm and you never know when the light bulbs might come on for these guys. There's no clear reason why he couldn't Mike Scott the league in 2008 and carry Detroit to another pennant.

On the other hand ...

1) Darren is right. His runs-allowed results have trailed his peripherals so much and so consistently that it's becoming hard to just shrug it off as randomness. Maybe it's coaching or mindset, but the gap between what Bonderman is and what everyone thinks he could or should be is uncomfortably large. His contract isn't bad, but his current and recent-past performances aren't exceeding salary-level expectations. He isn't a bargain by any stretch.

2) It's worth noting, and I know I'm the 10,000th person to say this, that pitchers do not follow the same development arcs as hitters. That a 24-year-old pitcher was in the majors at 20 does not give him the same expected-growth curve as a comparably-talented right fielder or third baseman. Bonderman's 2006 might well be the very best the Tigers are going to get from him.

Both observationally and statistically he seems to get hit hard when he does get hit ... his opponents' isolated slugging is 166 lifetime and only in '06 was his HR/9 any good considering the ball park. My thinking is he stays "LAIM" through 2010, signs elsewhere, and who knows what after that.

Happy Base Ball

Bonderman has a severe problem with nerves that affects him in the 1st inning. I don't know where to find the stat but his 1st inning ERA is absolutely ridiculous, something like 9.50, and then afterwards he's at 3.25 or something like that. It's not just a few games -- pretty much EVERY game he'll allow 2 or 3 runs minimum in the first.

This needs to be broken down into to components: the start of his career through June of this year, and the last two months. Over the first period, Bonderman was consistently getting better, and there were a lot of reasons to think that he was going to be very good. Over the last two months, he's collapsed.

I haven't gotten a chance to watch him much, but I did yesterday. He seems to have misplaced about 4 mph on his fastball, and it's affected his pitching. He was nibbling constantly, rather than going after hitters. He was relying very heavily on his slider. He would get behind in the count, and then hang something.

There is very clearly something wrong at the moment, and this isn't the same pitcher we saw last year. Whether that something can be easily fixed, I don't know. This isn't a normal progression on his past, though.

I don't know where to find the stat but his 1st inning ERA is absolutely ridiculous,

In his career, Bonderman's OPS against in the 1st inning is .966, and then it drops off to .579 (!), and then it hovers around the 600 and 700's for the rest.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=bondeje01&year=c

For some reason his 2007 splits aren't working right now but then you could see how he's doing this year ni that regard. And he's killing my team. However I don't believe that he should be written off. He's very young and will eventually click into performing up to his peripherals.

Also looking at his career splits he has a 4.16 ERA in the first half and a 5.70 ERA in the 2nd half. That's quite a difference so it may just be something that is ingrained in him: good 1st half pitcher and then he gets tired or unfocused.

He has not been helping me recently in fantasy....oh well no playoffs this year anyways.

I looked up Bonderman's game log for this year and here are the number of runs he's allowed in the first inning of each start (starting with his most recent start):

2, 1, 0, 1, 4, 2.
(This is where the losing streak began. Let's continue back through his winning streak):

0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0.

First-inning RA during the losing streak: 15.00
First-inning RA during the winning streak: 6.50

Ian is right: Good golly, Bonderman does have a problem with the first inning. He did great at one point, with six straight starts not allowing a run, but other than that he's a disaster in the first. I'll need to dig up his past game logs and see if the problem is persistent or just this year. Now I understand why Leyland let him keep pitching after getting bombed right out of the gate, though seven innings is a lot when he threw a ton of pitches in the first few.

It's worth noting, and I know I'm the 10,000th person to say this, that pitchers do not follow the same development arcs as hitters. That a 24-year-old pitcher was in the majors at 20 does not give him the same expected-growth curve as a comparably-talented right fielder or third baseman.

I understand. I wasn't suggesting that he will be better at 27 or 28 simply because he was in the majors at 20. I was only suggesting that he wasn't ready at 20, and I am therefore comfortable ignoring his poor performance that year.

Bonderman's 2006 might well be the very best the Tigers are going to get from him.

I agree. I just think they might get two or three more 2006's out of him, rather than 2004's, 2005's and 2007's.

I only get the most obvious of Repoz references. But this one cleared my ignorameter and brought back some amusing memories.

Ahhhhhh...The Claw. My all-time fave.