I can't believe he was traded for Matt Herges! (I know, different Chris Young).

Interesting he got a deal similar to Tulo, when his numbers last year were far inferior.

Interesting he got a deal similar to Tulo, when his numbers last year were far inferior.

As a likely 30-30 guy for the foreseeable future, Young would probably do very well in arbitration. Also, much of Tulo's value is in his defense, which is 1) likely to decline, and 2) less likely to be properly valued in arbitration.

Isn't this contract comparable to the deal that Granderson received?

Also, am hoping this contract is a blueprint for a Justin Upton extension next offseason.

My first thought was that this was something of an overpayment considering he struggled a little bit last season but Howard's arbitration awards last offseason changed things. This is probably a good move.

I read this as 'Chris Young Recieves 6 Year Suspension.' This news is substantially more boring

I read it as "Receives 6-inch Extension." Same complaint.

I'm not sure if this is a good signing by the DBacks or not. His lack of OBP is a little scary. But I guess his power and solid defense should make him valuable enough.

I always think its wise for these young dudes to sign for guaranteed money, so its a great deal for Young.

I don't think Upton will be this cheap. And for no particular reason, I think he will hold out for more money.

His OB% was only a concern last year; it hadn't been in the minors. I think he'll be fine- he knows he needs to walk more this year and is working on it. Combined with his speed and defense, I'd say he's the better player than Tulo going forward. The D-bags have a scary collection of talent right now. It can't match the Rays, but its close..

Which deals like this-- long extensions to pre-arb players--backfired significantly? My gut is telling me Hinske and Berroa received deals like this, but I can't remember and don't know where to check.

#9: From memory, both of them received contracts in the 5/$15mn range covering their arb years but no FA years. Terrence
long was another that didn't work. I'm sure there are some examples of players who have never been with the A's...

IIRC, all of those guys who crapped (Berroa, Long, Hinske) out did not have the minor league pedigree of Young. Young was also 23 last year, vs. 24 or 25 for the Berroa, Long, Hinske crowd. And as pointed out, he has his defense to fall back on, something you couldn't really say about those three. I think a guy with Young's record and tools is a much safer bet. The obvious comp is Wells, who, besides being black , was also a 23 year old CFer with good speed and power who struggled with plate discipline his first year.

I don't think Upton will be this cheap. And for no particular reason, I think he will hold out for more money.

Upton's already set for life with his signing bonus. Then again, I thought Cabrera would hold out until FA since he's already made so much by going year-to-year in arb. It's obviously pretty hard to turn down huge sums of money no matter how close you are to being a FA. The Pujols contract could be a model for Upton and Arizona.

I think this is a good risk for the D-backs.

When you look at VORP, even Hinske, who turned out quite badly for the Blue Jays when his defense regressed and his shoulder became problematic, actually came very close to earning his salary. It's really hard to come out too badly in deals like this - Young turning out poorly could still be worth $5 million a year, so there's only so much damage this deal could do.

IIRC, all of those guys who crapped (Berroa, Long, Hinske) out did not have the minor league pedigree of Young.

Long hit about as well as expected his first couple years, then fell off a cliff. Hinske was a bit over his head in his first year, and then he also fell off a cliff. Those contracts weren't good ideas to start with, but the collapses that made them small disasters were far from imminent.

Berroa had put up a .613 OPS in AAA the year before his ROY, but he was also ranked as the 13th best prospect in baseball by BA.

Here are Berroa and Hinske's deals from Cot's. I don't know where to find Long's.

Angel Berroa ss
4 years/$11M (2005-08), plus $5.5M 2009 club option
signed extension 5/04, DFA 6/6/07
05:$0.5M, 06:$2M, 07:$3.25M, 08:$4.75M, 09:$5.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)
performance bonuses: $0.1M each for 600 PAs & 700 PAs in 2007, $75,000 each for 600 PAs & 700 PAs in 2006,
award bonuses: $0.1M each for MVP & WS MVP, $50,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger


Eric Hinske inf-of
5 years/$14.75M (2003-07)
signed extension 3/03
$0.5M signing bonus
03:$0.5M, 04:$0.8M, 05:$3M, 06:$4.325M, 07:$5.625M
acquired in trade 8/06 (with Toronto paying $2,812,500 to Boston)
Boston to pay remaining 2006 salary ($1,063,525)
Boston & Toronto to split 2007 salary ($2,812,500 each)

...even Hinske, who turned out quite badly for the Blue Jays when his defense regressed and his shoulder became problematic...

He broke his hamate bone in his sophmore season, zapping his HR totals - though his doubles totals were very good. He couldn't hit lefties, and his defense might of regressed, but his bat became putrid for the life of the contract.

Hinske was a bit over his head in his first year, and then he also fell off a cliff. Those contracts weren't good ideas to start with, but the collapses that made them small disasters were far from imminent.

No, it wasn't a good idea to commit to Hinske so soon. Hinske was such a pleasure to watch in his rookie season, and i'd love to have a detailed analysis of how he fell of that cliff, 'cause it sure bummed me out watching him in '02 to what followed after. Disappointing, and then add on Josh Phelps. Bad times.

Ahhh ... 2003 ... on my fantasy team I had Hinske, Bellhorn, and Blalock. I needed a base stealer so of course I traded Blalock early on. All three of those guys ended up being "cursed."

I'm not sure if this is a good signing by the DBacks or not. His lack of OBP is a little scary.

Random stat that's probably meaningless in your book: CYoung has 8 walks vs. 9 strikeouts through 7 games this year.

It's pretty stupid when people look at CY's OBP from last year and make half-ass generalizations about his future OBP potential, without considering a) his minor league record; b) his talent; c) his drive to improve in all assets of the game, including and especially the on base percentage.

This contract will turn out to be a huge bargain for the Dbacks.

These deals always confuse me with the service time. Are they buying out only his arbitration years, or also one FA year?

If it's the former, I don't understand it much as it seems like they are getting very little in a discount and assuming all the risk. If it's the latter, it's a great deal because they get an extra year in his prime without needing to sign him to long-term contract.

Even better if they put a club option on the end.

From Steve Gilbert at mlb.com

The deal, which includes a club option for 2014, will cover his arbitration years and the first year he would be eligible for free agency. The option year would cover his second year of free agency.

No, it wasn't a good idea to commit to Hinske so soon.

The Jays knew that Hinske had flaws in his approach at the plate, so I think it's quite legitimate to criticize the early commitment to Hinske, but two points need to be emphasized:

1. Based on the available projections at the time, the contract was a steal - in other words, I don't think anyone showed empirically that it was anything other than a good idea.

2. The Jays thought they could fix Hinske's flaws, correct his style without disturbing his talent.

They proved to be wrong on point #2, and that's a shame (Hinske's weight is still too far forward), and the hand injury probably didn't help, as he cut down his swing and started even further over his centre of gravity, slashing at the ball instead of driving off the back foot. Everyone (literally just about everyone) started pitching him backwards and he began to flail. He's not a "student of the game", exactly, is Hinske. Or a student of anything.

Should they have known? Debatable - it wouldn't have hurt them to exercise caution and it would have saved them a bit of money (true, Hinske delivered just about market value for his performance after 2002 but they wouldn't have had to pay *him* that much). Hinske had dropped off in the second half as word got around that he would overcommit to his weight transfer, and that should have been obvious - there may have been some who believed it was just the season wearing on him. I wouldn't have hesitated to sign him to the same deal at the time, though. I thought it was a fine idea, that didn't work out.

It's pretty stupid when people look at CY's OBP from last year and make half-ass generalizations about his future OBP potential, without considering a) his minor league record; b) his talent; c) his drive to improve in all assets of the game, including and especially the on base percentage.

levski, stop being a #######. its pretty stupid when you make half-ass generalizations about one post. His minor league walk rate was decent, but not great. His minor league average was low, so he probably doesn't have an average OBP in him.

Go look at the transaction oracle entry about the signing. The highest OBP projection through 2013 is .322.

Even with the OBP caveats, he projects as a good player.

I am a Chris Young fanboy, I have him on my DMB team and hope he does great. But fortunately for myself, I am not as stupidly blind a fanboy as you are.

Contract Details:

28 Million guaranteed for 5 years through 2013, buying out 3 arb years and a year of free agency, with an option for a second year of free agency , 2014, which if exercised would make the deal worth 37.5 million

He is making 406,000 in 2008.

He will receive a 1 Mil signing bonus

2009- 1.75
2010- 3.25
2011- 5.00
2012- 7.00
2013- 8.50
2014-11.00 * Option or 1.5 Million buyout

So the deal looks even better than originally thought.