i do NOT get just detest luke scott - the guy must either hate riding horses or must be gay or something.

Maybe the Astros think gun-control laws need to be stricter. Scott is a big gun guy. Unusual for a ballplayer.

Costanzo hit .270/.368/.490
in a league that averaged .263/.330/.399
in a neutral park* that'd be an OPS+ of 134

an OPS+ of 134 in AA translates to much better numbers than 235/308/396 in the MLB (which would be an OPS+ of 77 in Phillieland)

If you would project the same EqA and MLE for a 23yo who hit .270/.368/.490 in AA with a strikeout in 15% of his at-bats and a 23yo who hit .270/.368/.490 in AA with a strikeout in 31% of his at-bats, well, then you and I are just going to have to agree to disagree.

If you would project the same EqA and MLE for a 23yo who hit .270/.368/.490 in AA with a strikeout in 15% of his at-bats and a 23yo who hit .270/.368/.490 in AA with a strikeout in 31% of his at-bats, well, then you and I are just going to have to agree to disagree.

No, I project using BABIP rather than H/AB, and since Ks project to increase going from AA to MLB that would give the 31% guy a worse projection than the 15% guy- but the difference isn't huge - guys with worse AA k-rates have succeed

besides I'm not projecting him to be a "star" I'm projecting him to be better than Wes Helms

I can understand Astro fans being disappointed in this return haul, and I hate to defend Ed Wade, but assuming Lidge was destined to be dealt -- what were you expecting in return?

He's still got electric stuff - the K rate might be down a bit, but it's still damn impressive - but something just went haywire with him two years ago and he still can't shake it.

I think the options for the Astros were:

1)something not unlike what they actually got

2)higher ceiling - but much more raw, lower minors prospects who are equally crapshootish

3)keeping Lidge


personally, maybe option 3) would have been the best course to take - but I cannot see any team, even the dumb ones, willing to give up much of a sure thing for Lidge... that's not to say virtually every team wouldn't salivate over Lidge/Lidge's stuff/Lidge's arm - but it's a fairly high risk acquisition.

I'm not surprised - these are the same dopey dopes that felt that Rico Brogna was a terrific player.

Sparky Anderson calls in to Philly radio stations?

About the ARod to Philly talk, I seem to remember in 2006 his being asked by the press about waiving his no trade if he was dealt to Philly, but he responded by basically rolling his eyes and laughing in a "that would NEVER happen" sort of way. Anyone else remember that?

To get Constanzo even to a relatively modest .750 MLE OPS, you have to get the Eastern League base translation factor (before considering offense) to the 0.80 range and there's no way the base translation for a AA league is 0.8

If I'm looking at the correct stuff I think you use a base factor of .69 for the EL, and .76 for AAA.
Other guys's use different ones, one site (I think Baseball Notebook- but not sure) uses .84 for IL and .78 for EL (I threw this stuff on a spread sheet to merge together but didn't attribute it)

I use roughly .75 for EL

I also look at age, but in this case Costanzo's age is more or less neutral, not a plus or negative

I haven't really worked out mles this year yet, I started running Costanzo off the cuff, but I don't have updated minor league park factors yet.
I'd love to sit down and spend a dozen hours comparing mles to later mlb performance myself, but my boss would kill me.

Google remembers:

AROD would reject trade

My memory was off - ARod simply said he would veto the trade, it was the Phillies brass that joked about it.

Also, how strange that the Phils made the first big move off the offseason a few years ago by trading for Billy Wagner. These Phils-trade-young-talent-for-a-Houston-closer deals sure move fast!

Also, how strange that the Phils made the first big move off the offseason a few years ago by trading for Billy Wagner. These Phils-trade-young-talent-for-a-Houston-closer deals sure move fast!

Unfortunately we missed out on the opportunity to trade for Octavio Dotel at the 2004 deadline. Couldn't quite top the offer of Carlos Beltran, even if it was only for three months of him.

They already have the jersey made for Felipe Paulino although he is not scheduled to be traded to the Phils until 2011.

One more note after reading through the Phillies statements on the move: acquiring Bruntlett signals that the Phil's will no longer address 3rd base. He was included in the deal to take over for Nunez as defensive replacement for Helms/Dobbs late in games, as well as backup 2nd and short. I think all of the remaining moves by the Phils this offseason will be on the pitching side, with the exception of looking for a reserve outfielder.

you have to get the Eastern League base translation factor (before considering offense) to the 0.80 range and there's no way the base translation for a AA league is 0.80.

Even at 69% doing a real Q & D analysis
Costanzo had 6.22 rc/25.5 outs
the league was at 4.55
at 69% his MLE OWP would be .471 (roughly a 95 OPS+)
at 69% and a Reading park adjustment factor of 108
gets him down to .432 (roughly 90 OPS+)

I really have to say your (and Chone's) translation for Costanzo is just too low (BPro's looks too high as well)

One more note after reading through the Phillies statements on the move: acquiring Bruntlett signals that the Phil's will no longer address 3rd base.

The thing with Helms and Dobbs- Helms may have 1000+ mlb at bats, but there's no predicting what he'll do, he could be ok, he could be a great half of a platoon, he could be a bottomless pit of suckitude, all 3 possibilities are equally likely.

Dobbs was almost certainly playing over his head- by the way I do them Dobbs' past MLEs were FAR worse than Costanzo's, his .272/.330/.451 line last year may be as far above his true talent as Helm's .329/.390/.575 line in 2006 was from his.

I really have to say your (and Chone's) translation for Costanzo is just too low (BPro's looks too high as well)

Didn't Dan mention a ridiculous HR factor for Reading? That would strongly affect the perceived value of a TTO guy like Costanzo especially. FWIW, he was .279/.394/.538 with 17 HR in 251 AB at Reading and .259/.339/.432 with 9 HR in 243 AB on the road. As a team, Reading hit 55 HR at home, 33 on the road (in = AB) ... pitchers allowed 1.01 HR/9 at home, 0.84 HR/9 on the road.

If I'm looking at the correct stuff I think you use a base factor of .69 for the EL, and .76 for AAA.
Other guys's use different ones, one site (I think Baseball Notebook- but not sure) uses .84 for IL and .78 for EL (I threw this stuff on a spread sheet to merge together but didn't attribute it)

I use roughly .75 for EL


Those are very old factors - post-1996, m factors have moved down. Looking at 4-year moving averages of overall AAA base factor, before adjusting for league offense I get:

1992-1995: 0.83
1993-1996: 0.83
1994-1997: 0.81
1995-1998: 0.79
1996-1999: 0.75
1997-2000: 0.78
1998-2001: 0.80
1999-2002: 0.75
2000-2003: 0.74
2001-2004: 0.73
2002-2005: 0.77
2003-2006: 0.76

Before offensive adjustments (I adjust for the mix of pitchers), 0.75 is certainly too low for a AA league.

Even at 69% doing a real Q & D analysis
Costanzo had 6.22 rc/25.5 outs
the league was at 4.55
at 69% his MLE OWP would be .471 (roughly a 95 OPS+)
at 69% and a Reading park adjustment factor of 108
gets him down to .432 (roughly 90 OPS+)

The problem with this is that a very large percentage of Costanzo's value is in home runs, so simply looking at the RC/25 isn't going to properly capture the additional loss in home runs.

I'm definitely interested in the BABIP issue. I have found in the past that the vanilla translation factors do a surprisingly good job at converting BABIP over to MLB - have you done additional research here?

The problem with this is that a very large percentage of Costanzo's value is in home runs, so simply looking at the RC/25 isn't going to properly capture the additional loss in home runs.

Yes, but that's not a big issue translating Costanzo to Philly as it would to another park.


So basically your research shows that the quality of AAA relative to MLB has declined since 1996?

'm definitely interested in the BABIP issue. I have found in the past that the vanilla translation factors do a surprisingly good job at converting BABIP over to MLB - have you done additional research here?

I screwed around a little starting a few years ago, came to the conclusion that wow, despite their apparent MLEs, McPherson and Howard are not going to be all that great/have huge trouble clearing .250...

Then Ryan Howard happened :-)

I suspect that Howard is an outlier, I also think his average in 2005/06 will be outliers in his career, he simply won;t be able to sustain an average above .275 (though it'll be years before Phillie Phans stop calling him a ".300 hitter")

My thoughts are that

1: In the MLB Ks don't matter, 150ks and and OPS+ of 125 is as good as 50Ks and an OPS+ of 125

2: In the minors Ks matter at the extremes- 100 in the minors can become 120 in the majors, and so on. And then you may have a cascade effect. 150 Ks becomes 180, 30 homers become 20. The 30 extra Ks means 7-9 less hits, the 10 lost homers becomes 10 lost hits. Suddenly a AAA 30hr 150K guy who is equal to a 20 Hr 75K guy in AAA, is actually quite a bit worse in the MLB.

And I realize that my prototypical minor leaguer whose mles should be a lot worse than a typical minor leaguer of the same value- in the minors- looks a lot like Costanzo.

3: In the minors Ks matter at the extremes- the anti-Costanzo is someone like Jeff Keppinger.

But then I have the question - since Chris Costanzo is such a strikeout guy, wouldn't your MLE be worse than mine as a result? I apply strikeouts to projections going forward, not translations, so all things being equal, if we use the same factors, my MLEs should be milder for Costanzo than yours, not harsher!

The big advantage Bruntlett has over Nunez is that no one has ever made the mistake of giving Bruntlett a semi-regular starting job, hence Bruntlett has been (properly) typecast as a utility player -- whereas someone will always think Nunez can be a functional stopgap in the starting lineup.

Bingo.

But then I have the question - since Chris Costanzo is such a strikeout guy, wouldn't your MLE be worse than mine as a result?

I haven't really run the numbers this year, takes a lot of time (as I'm sure you know)

My initial reaction was that Costanzo's OPS relative to his league was so high that an MLB OPS+ equivalent of 77 looked way too low.

As a quick and dirty method simply figuring out a player's OPS+ relative to his league works for probably 80% of minor leaguers - the guys who go astray big time are the really high K guys (the guys who'd K 250 times if given 700 PAs- and there's a surprising # of those in the minors, as a rule they don't get 700 mlb PAs) the guys who are several years too old for their league, and the one year fluke guys (who happen in the minors at approximately the rate they happen in the majors- ie: enough to make exact projections an impossible pipe dream).

In the minors Ks matter at the extremes- 100 in the minors can become 120 in the majors, and so on. And then you may have a cascade effect. 150 Ks becomes 180, 30 homers become 20. The 30 extra Ks means 7-9 less hits, the 10 lost homers becomes 10 lost hits. Suddenly a AAA 30hr 150K guy who is equal to a 20 Hr 75K guy in AAA, is actually quite a bit worse in the MLB.

Yup. I've played around with a rough MLE spreadsheet built off of component conversion factors that MGL derived in a thread several years ago.

What I found is that TTO hitters translate terribly - walks, homers, and Ks sees the greatest effect in moving between levels. You lose like 30% of your HR rate, but only 5-15% of your single or double rate. Players who put the ball in play translate better, even if their overall production isn't as good.

Guys like Costanzo translate terribly. Brandon Moss seems to be the closest to this type in the Sox system that I've looked at. On the other hand, guys like Dustin Pedroia tend to "surprise".

What I found is that TTO hitters translate terribly - walks, homers, and Ks sees the greatest effect in moving between levels...

Guys like Costanzo translate terribly

Yes, but their is also a pronounced park and league effect, PCL and Cal League guys many times have their HR #s get murdered* (more so than simply normalizing to league levels would indicate) guys from the FLA or EL and some IL parks seem to retain their HRs to a surprising degree.

*ie: I'm not a Brandon Wood fan

This was separate from the park/league effect - that is, MGL's numbers were neutralized, iirc. So, even moving from neutral park to neutral park, it's better to be a singles hitter than a home run hitter, it's significantly better to be a contact guy than a TTO masher (all else being equal, of course.)

Kevin Goldstein referred recently to Costanzo defensively as impersonating a lawn ornament. I don't know how reliable his observations are, however.

But given that little bit of anecdoatal evidence and Costanzo's high error totals (25 and 34 the last two years), I wonder if the Phils think he won't handle 3B well enough to play in MLB.

And that he'll have to play 1B. Which mean's he's blocked by Howard and won't hit enough to be an everyday 1B.

So they toss him into the trade and don't regret it.


That said, I really hope the Phils haven't acquired their 3B for 2008 in this deal. If they won't go after A-Rod, I wish they'd just sign up Lamb or Branyan, find themselves a decent platoon partner, and be done with Helms/Nunez forever.

Just getting up to near-average at 3B might buy them a couple more cheap wins. Which is huge in this league, and this division.