Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, October 29, 2007

Squawking Baseball: Playoff Randomness

Mads Haahr to the rescue!

There is some evidence, though, that the best teams generally do well in the divisional and league championship rounds. The model would predict that a randomly selected team would have made it to the World Series fifteen times, but the best regular season team actually made it twenty-two times. However, of those twenty-two appearances, the best team actually won only those nine already mentioned.

Before divisional play, sixty-five World Series were held, with the “best” team winning thirty-six times, or just over 55 percent. That seems about right, although I’d bet most baseball fans would bet the over.

In reality, its not a total crapshoot, but it’s much closer than people think. And I hate to say it, but I’m less and less excited about the playoffs every year. It’s nice that a team like the Red Sox, perhaps the best run team in professional sports from ownership on down, can have the success that they’re having. But in the end, most fans won’t try to differentiate between them and the 2006 Cardinals, a far inferior team that just got hot at the right time.

Repoz Posted: October 29, 2007 at 08:46 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. BDC Posted: October 29, 2007 at 09:21 PM (#2599241)
The amazing aspect of this is that baseball is having its cake and eating it too. People seem to really believe that the best team in the end will win the World Series, and that teams that don’t have something intrinsically wrong with them. After all, if fans had actually lost confidence in the system, would anybody be watching?

There seems to me a big difference, however, between

(1) being convinced that the best team (or athlete) has won a championship and

(2) enjoying a championship event and appreciating the performance that goes into winning it.

There are sports where the championships, or at least the huge marquee events, are much more crapshooty than baseball. Classic horse races get their appeal from being gambling propositions. College basketball in March. Golf majors.

And then there are sports that have less crapshooty championships: tennis majors; track and field worlds and Olympics; the NBA playoffs, at least in years when Dallas doesn't finish 67-15 and lose in the first *&%#ing round.

Really, what's the problem? That the baseball postseason is more wide-open than Wimbledon but less so than the Kentucky Derby?

This is sports. The baseball postseason is set up not so that the Platonic ideal of the best team wins but so that somebody will win eleven games in October and get a big trophy. The idea is to enjoy watching them actually win those games. If some better team wants to beat them, they are very welcome to do so :)
   2. Steve Treder Posted: October 29, 2007 at 09:38 PM (#2599268)
This is sports. The baseball postseason is set up not so that the Platonic ideal of the best team wins but so that somebody will win eleven games in October and get a big trophy. The idea is to enjoy watching them actually win those games. If some better team wants to beat them, they are very welcome to do so :)

I fully agree.

The problem with this year's post-season tournament was that nearly every one of the series was a blowout. Ho-hum. That's the way it goes sometimes.
   3. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: October 29, 2007 at 10:11 PM (#2599306)
Agree, agree.

There's way too much emphasis on trying to perfect any postseason set-up. Every league uses some arbitrary measure for the way they do things, wild card, best of 5, 7, home field, 2-3-2, 2-2-1-1-1, bye weeks, etc. it is all arbitrary. Fans/media need to calm down and ask themselves what they are looking for when watching sports.

I want to see teams at a high level perform at a high level, and if I get a 4-game sweep, a 55-10 super bowl, a 62-24 Fiesta Bowl, a 30 point UNLV win over Duke, or a 15 stroke U.S. Open victory, that's the way it goes. Not every event needs to end perfectly, and sometimes the best drama during a season happens way before it intuitively seems to supposed to happen.

College football is a perfect example of this, the MNC BCS games are rarely barnburners, just like the Super Bowl is often a bust. Yet, despite a lack of bracketed playoff system, college football (if you are a fan) provides some of the most unbelievable drama from August through December, when nobody, or at least the cliff-note NFL fans, aren't even paying attention. Then they show up and the press demands to know where's the playoff? You missed it.

In MLB, it may be a Aug/September collapse, or a great DS, or LCS, which leads to the supposed 'best team' not even appearing in the WS. Unless you want to go back to two leagues, no playoffs, this will happen in every single league, and often.

Wow, he must really hate the NCAA tournament, the #1 and #2 teams almost never face each other in the finals.
   4. John DiFool2 Posted: October 30, 2007 at 12:59 AM (#2599501)
Unlike the NCAA, where the obvious solution is staring TPTB in the face, no obvious solution exists for baseball to better ensure the best team actually wins it all.
   5. Gaelan Posted: October 30, 2007 at 01:09 AM (#2599510)
This is an odd year to complain. First, there was no obvious best team which makes it the best possible scenario to justify the goodness of a playoff. And then, of those teams, the team that appeared to be the best proved themselves to be the best.

Those who make a fetish out of the regular season (like Joe Sheehan--my least favourite baseball writer who needs a good kick in the face) need to get off their high horse. The playoffs go a long way to crowning the best team and are, in fact, the best way of doing so.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Sponsor

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Vegas Watch
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013
(1121 - 11:19pm, May 22)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Newsblog[OTP-May] Politico: Congressional baseball game, May 1, 1926
(4060 - 11:16pm, May 22)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for MAY 22, 2013
(158 - 11:16pm, May 22)
Last: boteman

NewsblogMitchell: Pedroia, Cano and Magical Thinking
(8 - 11:15pm, May 22)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)

NewsblogVerducci: Offensive decline leads list of 10 early-season trends to watch
(30 - 11:14pm, May 22)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogWhite Sox Ace Chris Sale Eats and Eats and Eats Without Gaining Any Weight
(122 - 11:09pm, May 22)
Last: Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams)

NewsblogChase Utley 'scared' by injury, could be headed to DL
(2 - 11:07pm, May 22)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogESPN: Forging bond with Pete Rose has helped fuel Joey Votto's desire to be great
(32 - 11:02pm, May 22)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogArizona Diamondbacks broadcaster Bob Brenly says it’s time for robo-umps in baseball
(29 - 10:57pm, May 22)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogMike Trout hits for the cycle in Angels' 12-0 win over Seattle
(37 - 10:53pm, May 22)
Last: Cooper Nielson

NewsblogSeamheads.com Adds 1928 Negro Leagues Data
(2 - 10:24pm, May 22)
Last: Mike Webber

NewsblogSources: O's calling up Kevin Gausman
(4 - 10:22pm, May 22)
Last: escabeche

NewsblogGattis, Freeman lead Braves past Twins 5-4 in 10th
(9 - 9:14pm, May 22)
Last: WillYoung

NewsblogOT: NHL is finally back thread
(360 - 8:17pm, May 22)
Last: PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth)

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, May 2013
(1069 - 8:15pm, May 22)
Last: Biff, highly-regarded young guy

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets.

For wholesale prices on baseball gifts and equipment, check these stores out!

Baseball Autograph Signings
Baseball Card Supplies
Baseball Memorabilia
Baseball Collectibles
Baseball Equipment
Baseball Protective Gear

Page rendered in 0.1311 seconds
50 querie(s) executed