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Thursday, November 16, 2017

Stanton, Altuve capture first MVP Awards | MVP

Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Jose Altuve of the Astros couldn’t be more different in stature, but they both spent last season producing at elite levels en route to Major League Baseball’s highest individual award.

Stanton and Altuve were unveiled as the National League and American League Most Valuable Player Award winners, respectively, by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Thursday.

LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 16, 2017 at 08:05 PM | 51 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giancarlo stanton, jose altuve, mvp

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   1. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 16, 2017 at 08:13 PM (#5577730)
Expected result.

Surprised that Votto was so close and out poled Goldy by quite a bit, good to see the electorate recognise just how amazingly good Joey is.

I wrote earlier that I thought Altuve would win in cantor, still surprised a little bit about the widish margin. One gave Judge a 3rd place vote. Not really a big deal, but not really deserved either.
   2. Boxkutter Posted: November 16, 2017 at 08:14 PM (#5577732)
Who's the idiot who voted Jose Ramirez as the AL MVP? He should have his vote and children taken away.
   3. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: November 16, 2017 at 08:22 PM (#5577735)
Well done, Terror Tot!
   4. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 16, 2017 at 08:32 PM (#5577742)
Marty Brennaman would have lost his mind if Votto just got 3 more points.
   5. eric Posted: November 16, 2017 at 09:13 PM (#5577765)
Exact vote I expected. Did not expect Votto to be so close. Definitely did not expect Votto close and Judge so far behind. My first thought was Votto being close means a lot of voters are likely looking at WAR (Votto was 0.1 behind). But then Judge was a distant second in the vote (0.2 behind in WAR). So I can't really reconcile the logic. Glad it worked out that deserving players won, for sure.

The AL vote had a clear majority for each spot down through 5th place. I wonder how often that occurs?
   6. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 16, 2017 at 09:21 PM (#5577770)
Votto led the NL in OBP (by a lot), OPS, and OPS+, and had 40 points of BA on Stanton. Not hard to build a WAR-less argument for him at or near the top of the ballot.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: November 16, 2017 at 09:30 PM (#5577777)
Stanton becomes the first Marlin to win one of the two big awards. Miami had been the last team without a Cy or an MVP.

   8. asinwreck Posted: November 16, 2017 at 09:38 PM (#5577780)
Marty Brennaman lost his mind decades ago.
   9. Shock Posted: November 16, 2017 at 09:49 PM (#5577784)
Marty Brennaman never had a mind.
   10. eric Posted: November 16, 2017 at 10:21 PM (#5577792)
Votto led the NL in OBP (by a lot), OPS, and OPS+, and had 40 points of BA on Stanton. Not hard to build a WAR-less argument for him at or near the top of the ballot.


Besides the fact that a lot of those metrics are double-counting, I guess I should clarify my point to be a little broader--I felt voters were looking at more saber-oriented stats (OPS, OPS+, OBP are not the traditional stats) when evaluating Votto. But then Judge had better OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+, plus many of the big traditional or counting stats--HR,RBI,R, BB--and still was a distant second place.

I was expecting the AL to be the close race, with Altuve taking it, and Stanton to run away with it in the NL. Just goes to show how much I understand the minds of the voters.
   11. shoewizard Posted: November 16, 2017 at 11:09 PM (#5577816)
Besides the fact that a lot of those metrics are double-counting, I guess I should clarify my point to be a little broader--I felt voters were looking at more saber-oriented stats (OPS, OPS+, OBP are not the traditional stats) when evaluating Votto. But then Judge had better OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+, plus many of the big traditional or counting stats--HR,RBI,R, BB--and still was a distant second place.

I was expecting the AL to be the close race, with Altuve taking it, and Stanton to run away with it in the NL. Just goes to show how much I understand the minds of the voters.


I think the voters get it with regards to the value of a middle infielder vs. a corner outfielder. Clearly, even if not looking at WAR, Altuve was getting credit for playing the more difficult defensive position.

In the NL,, you have two first basemen and a corner outfielder, and the voters didn't see much reason to differentiate based on position, so focused on other things.

They did a damn good job this year, all the way around, every award.

D Backs fans on twitter are killing Nick Piecoro for voting for Votto. Idiots. Nick is a really good writer, and he is very analytical and thoughtful. They don't know what they have.
   12. kwarren Posted: November 16, 2017 at 11:13 PM (#5577818)
Chicks don't dig DEFENSE.

Offensive runs - Stanton 47.8, Rondon 34.3
Defensive runs - Rondon 15.8, Stanton -0.5
Total runs - Rondon 50.1, Stanton 47.3

Point Totals - Stanton 302, Rondon 141.

Must be the voters dig the long ball !! Then we have the AL vote.

Offensive runs - Judge 60.8, Altuve 52.6
Defensive runs - Altuve -0.1, Judge -1.3
Total runs - Judge 59.5, Altuve 52.5

Point Totals - Altuve 405, Judge 279

Maybe not so much. Lots of credit for previous years I guess. Besides, Judge has already won an award.

   13. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 16, 2017 at 11:31 PM (#5577828)
Yankees fan as I am, I'm glad Altuve won. I'd like to think that his "Tiny Terror Tot" moniker was the tiebreaker for any wavering voters. Greatest nickname ever.
   14. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 16, 2017 at 11:33 PM (#5577829)
Clearly, even if not looking at WAR, Altuve was getting credit for playing the more difficult defensive position.

I'm sure he gets plenty of extra credit for his position, but I wouldn't assume that it explains his margin of victory. Some people may have used it as the tie-breaker. Others might have voted based on his shiny batting crown and/or all those steals. Or maybe some voted for him over Judge because Houston won their division.

It's different sets of voters, who have different thoughts on value. I don't think you're going to get very far attempting to explain the thought process of the writers as a whole, beyond acknowledging that they're getting better at it.
   15. kwarren Posted: November 16, 2017 at 11:59 PM (#5577838)
Clearly, even if not looking at WAR, Altuve was getting credit for playing the more difficult defensive position.


Yes, he plays a more difficult position, but he plays it rather poorly. He has more defensive value than Judge but only be a margin of 1.2 runs.
   16. Mike Webber Posted: November 17, 2017 at 12:05 AM (#5577840)
How about the Kris Bryant first place vote? Anyone want to take a shot at explaining that?
   17. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 17, 2017 at 12:10 AM (#5577841)
I was expecting the AL to be the close race, with Altuve taking it, and Stanton to run away with it in the NL. Just goes to show how much I understand the minds of the voters.

As discussed in the Cy Young thread, it's possible for a close race to look like a landslide, provided that -- for whatever reason -- the voters are nearly unanimous about which player is slightly better than the other player. I think we saw that in the Kluber-Sale vote, and probably here in Altuve-Judge.

27 of the 30 voters had 1-Altuve 2-Judge, 2 of them had 1-Judge 2-Altuve, and one voter was weird. Clearly (almost) everyone thought Judge and Altuve were the two very best candidates, and I suspect most of them also thought that race was very close. If the voters were asked to rate players rather than rank them, Altuve might have beaten Judge by a a score of 9.2 to 9.0.
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 17, 2017 at 12:11 AM (#5577842)
I'd like to think that his "Tiny Terror Tot" moniker was the tiebreaker for any wavering voters. Greatest nickname ever.

Teeny Tiny Terror Tot seems even more apt. I suspect the voters, being mostly of normal stature, identified more with Altuve than the super-sized Judge, and probably had some hesitancy to give a rookie their highest award. Not that it is the ultimate measure, but combing BB-Ref & Fangraphs WAR gives Judge a slight 16.5 to 15.8 edge, but a 1st place vote for either is easily defensible. Judge far exceeded expectations this season, and if he manages to avoid the slump he had this season, he might be well-positioned to collect some 2018 hardware.
   19. crict Posted: November 17, 2017 at 12:18 AM (#5577847)
According to the individual ballots, if the vote was only Stanton vs Votto, the results would have been 15 votes for each... They really were basically equal according to voters.

Out of the 30 voters, only one of them (Tim Kurkijan, who has Stanton first and Votto 4th) has the pair separated by more than 2 spots. 21 ballots have them in back-to-back spots.
   20. Hank G. Posted: November 17, 2017 at 01:00 AM (#5577854)
I'm sure he gets plenty of extra credit for his position, but I wouldn't assume that it explains his margin of victory.


His margin of victory was because 27 voters had him first and Judge second and you get nearly 50% more points for first.. We don’t really know how close those voters thought it was. I can see thinking it was very close, but that Altuve was still clearly number one.

At any rate, Altuve should be thanking Mike Trout for getting injured. Before that, Trout was having a career year, and considering the career Trout has had so far, that is saying something.
   21. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 17, 2017 at 06:57 AM (#5577871)
Tim Kurkijan, who has Stanton first and Votto 4th


That 4th place vote (instead of 2nd) is enough to give Stanton the win outright instead of a tie, right?
   22. crict Posted: November 17, 2017 at 07:59 AM (#5577878)
That 4th place vote (instead of 2nd) is enough to give Stanton the win outright instead of a tie, right?


Yes. 9 points for 2nd place, 7 for 4th place.
   23. Rally Posted: November 17, 2017 at 08:10 AM (#5577880)
Chicks don't dig DEFENSE.

Offensive runs - Stanton 47.8, Rondon 34.3
Defensive runs - Rondon 15.8, Stanton -0.5
Total runs - Rondon 50.1, Stanton 47.3

Point Totals - Stanton 302, Rondon 141.

Must be the voters dig the long ball !! Then we have the AL vote.


Do Chicks get more than a handful of votes? I'm pretty sure the MLB awards ballot is a subsidiary of the patriarchal oppression machine.
   24. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 17, 2017 at 08:51 AM (#5577892)
Joey Votto:

"People basically said, 'We loved them both.' That's something I'm grateful for. Giancarlo plays in a monster ballpark and hit all those home runs, and I was cheering for him. I played every day, and I felt like I put together a nice, well-rounded season. We did it from the beginning to the end. We both stayed healthy, and I think the fans appreciated it."



Which voter gave Kris Bryant a first-place vote? And, where did he have Votto and Giancarlo listed?
   25. The_Ex Posted: November 17, 2017 at 09:14 AM (#5577900)
I wrote earlier that I thought Altuve would win in cantor, still surprised a little bit about the widish margin.


Altuve can sing too? Have the Astros recorded a song to celebrate their win?
   26. crict Posted: November 17, 2017 at 09:23 AM (#5577903)
Which voter gave Kris Bryant a first-place vote? And, where did he have Votto and Giancarlo listed?


Mark Bowman of MLB.com, of the Atlanta Chapter. He had Stanton 2nd and Votto 3rd. Didn't really an impact on the final outcome.
   27. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 17, 2017 at 09:24 AM (#5577905)
Which voter gave Kris Bryant a first-place vote? And, where did he have Votto and Giancarlo listed?
Mark Bowman, MLB.com.

1. Bryant
2. Stanton
3. Votto
   28. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: November 17, 2017 at 09:55 AM (#5577916)
Chicks don't dig DEFENSE.

Offensive runs - Stanton 47.8, Rondon 34.3
Defensive runs - Rondon 15.8, Stanton -0.5
Total runs - Rondon 50.1, Stanton 47.3

Point Totals - Stanton 302, Rondon 141.

Must be the voters dig the long ball !!

Yeah, so there were a few other guys on the ballot too. Defense certainly helped Arenado finish ahead of Blackmon. If he doesn't have to share credit with Blackmon for the Rockies' season, Arenado probably beats out Goldschmidt for third place.

You're looking at only the Fangraphs numbers, of course, which gave Rendon 10 more defensive runs than bb-ref/DRS. The opposite happened for Arenado. This is pretty good evidence against looking at just one system.
   29. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 17, 2017 at 10:22 AM (#5577929)
Mark Bowman of MLB.com, of the Atlanta Chapter. He had Stanton 2nd and Votto 3rd. Didn't really an impact on the final outcome.


That's cool. Was just wondering if he had Votto ahead of Stanton... But, no, so, it wouldn't have made a difference. :-)
   30. BDC Posted: November 17, 2017 at 10:27 AM (#5577931)
he plays a more difficult position, but he plays it rather poorly

I think that's a slight overstatement. Altuve may not look like Orlando Hudson out there, but he is quite acceptable at second base. "Rather poorly" is Rougned-Odor level or worse.
   31. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 17, 2017 at 10:27 AM (#5577932)
How about the Kris Bryant first place vote? Anyone want to take a shot at explaining that?

Probably something like he had a higher OPS this year than last when he won the MVP and he was the best player on a division winner. I dunno, something like that perhaps. Or, by FG WAR it went Rendon/Stanton at 6.9 and Bryant next at 6.7 (then Votto at 6.6 and Goldschmidt all the way down at 10th at 5.3).

It's not a bad vote by any means, it's just surprising since he was such an afterthought this year. I'm not sure why Rendon wasn't higher, but you could make a case for just about any of the 7 and not really be wrong.
   32. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 17, 2017 at 10:35 AM (#5577936)
I still think "El Pitufo" is a better nickname.
   33. dlf Posted: November 17, 2017 at 10:37 AM (#5577938)
Bill James had an interesting article on Judge vs. Altuve that, I think, is not behind the paywall. Link. Short version is that Altuve has a sizeable advantage (pun not intended) over Judge this year because of the breakdown between team runs and team wins for NYY (together with subpar situational performance for Judge) which is not accounted for in WAR.
   34. salvomania Posted: November 17, 2017 at 10:45 AM (#5577944)
Of 22 vote-getters in the NL, 14 came from Dodgers, Nationals, and DBacks.

Only 4 were from the NL Central.
   35. Booey Posted: November 17, 2017 at 12:26 PM (#5578012)
How about the Kris Bryant first place vote? Anyone want to take a shot at explaining that?


Have you seen his eyes? He's ever so dreamy...
   36. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: November 17, 2017 at 01:23 PM (#5578059)
The only team in baseball in 2017 that:

1) Finished at or above .500, and
2) did not have a player who received a vote in the MVP balloting was

the Brewers.
   37. Rally Posted: November 17, 2017 at 01:43 PM (#5578081)
#33, interesting article by Bill. I don't disagree with him but coming up with the right way to tie batting stats to actual wins is not an easy thing. I've often said that substituting WPA for batting wins gives you a viable WAR alternative. But there are a lot of good arguments against WPA itself. Things like, why is a 9th inning homerun in a 1-0 game worth more than a first inning HR in a 1-0 game?

Maybe WPA is not the answer, but then I don't know what is. As a simple alternative exercise I like to look at that around MVP voting time. Bill doesn't go far enough though. He's right that Judge's situational stats are not good and a big reason the Yankees underperformed their pythag. But the alternative is not necessarily Altuve. Despite great stats in "late and close" situations (which is only 59 of his AB) Altuve does not come out that great in WPA relative to batting wins. He's actually 1.7 wins worse. True that such an adjustment is 3.8 wins for Judge and would knock him out of consideration.

Making the adjustment for everyone would result in this MVP ranking:
AL
1. Mookie Betts 8.7
2. Andrelton Simmons 7.2
3. Elvis Andrus 6.9

Altuve, Trout, Lindor tied at 6.6

NL
1. Arenado 9.3
2. Stanton 7.0
3. Tommy Pham 6.5

If I go halfway between standard WAR and WPA-WAR, Arenado still wins the NL and Betts and Altuve tie in the AL.

Lets say you can solve this, come up with a better version of WPA that people agree on, then the question goes to the defensive side. Should we take into account runners on base, score of game, etc. when measuring defense. The data exists to do it, though it would have to come from the MLB.com guys like Tango and Baseball Savant since it's not all public. Baserunning? Same thing.

Maybe he was better last year, but I don't think Elvis Andrus would grade out so well if you look at fielding WPA in the 2015 playoffs.
   38. RickA. Posted: November 17, 2017 at 01:59 PM (#5578098)
Have you seen his eyes? He's ever so dreamy...


tina: he's alright but he's no colin farrell
   39. shoewizard Posted: November 17, 2017 at 02:17 PM (#5578124)
I would love it if we could get access to contextualized numbers for defense and base running ! Maybe someday.

As for WPA, I've referenced it as a tie breaker in the past. I remember using WPA and other situational stats as justification for closing the gap between McCutchen and Goldschmidt in 2013, but I think I concluded it was still not enough. I may not be remembering accurately just how big a homer I was being. ;)



   40. Walt Davis Posted: November 17, 2017 at 03:44 PM (#5578200)
The Bryant vote is easily explained by his awesome performance in clutch situations. :-)

Has there ever been a year when a player 5'10" or shorter had a legit case and didn't win MVP? :-)
   41. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 17, 2017 at 03:48 PM (#5578202)
Has there ever been a year when a player 5'10" or shorter had a legit case and didn't win MVP? :-)


Willie mays every year from 1955 to 1964
   42. Rally Posted: November 17, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5578206)
Mookie Betts last year. Not saying I disagree with Trout winning, but Mookie also had a legit case.
   43. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 17, 2017 at 04:09 PM (#5578208)
Players 5'10" or shorter who led the league in position WAR and did not win MVP:

Joe Morgan 1972-73
Kirby Puckett 1992
Eddie Stanky 1950
Snuffy Stirnweiss 1944-45
Lonnie Smith 1989
Mel Ott 1932, 34, 36, 38
Rickey! 1985, 89
Mays 1955, 57, 58, 60, 62, 63, 64, 66
Minnie Minoso 1954
Tommy Holmes 1945
   44. Walt Davis Posted: November 17, 2017 at 08:57 PM (#5578283)
OK, not in the last 25 years.

Not that I really care, I'll note that in 1989, Lonnie "Skates" Smith was credited with +23 Rfield and had "just" 6 oWAR. Rickey's 1989 case was probably hurt by being traded mid-season (has anybody won MVP in such a season?) (CYA yes, don't recall a MVP). And in 1992, Kirby finished 2nd to Eck which I'll count as a win for my purposes (sue me!). Also Joe Carter with 2.5 WAR finished 3rd that year so we can't rule out collective insanity.
   45. shoewizard Posted: November 18, 2017 at 08:23 AM (#5578318)
Here is Nick Piecoro's article explaining his first place vote for Votto, for which he has been heavily criticized by D backs fans. The guy had the guts to make the right call.
   46. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2017 at 01:53 PM (#5578376)

Here is Nick Piecoro's article explaining his first place vote for Votto, for which he has been heavily criticized by D backs fans. The guy had the guts to make the right call.


Click Here for the article that I'm assuming shoewizard meant to post.
   47. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 18, 2017 at 02:02 PM (#5578377)
Click Here for the article that I'm assuming shoewizard meant to post.
??? That article is from 2013. Here's his article on this year's vote.

Fans in AZ must hate him for voting for someone else so often.
   48. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2017 at 03:05 PM (#5578396)
??? That article is from 2013. Here's his article on this year's vote.

Fans in AZ must hate him for voting for someone else so often.


Damnit... and the link you have is the one I originally had linked and then edited it out because I was looking for one that was more specific and popped up in the same search. I didn't even read the article, just saw that it had the headline of explaining his ballot, and the first sentence on Goldschmidt..... The term archive kept bothering me, since I saw the date of November 14th, but for some reason I just glanced over the 2013 part of that....

   49. RMc's Unenviable Situation Posted: November 18, 2017 at 04:03 PM (#5578401)
That settles it, Votto: no HOF for you.
   50. shoewizard Posted: November 18, 2017 at 04:30 PM (#5578404)
Thanks for picking me up guys. Just came back and realized i screwed up the link
   51. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 18, 2017 at 04:35 PM (#5578407)
How about the Kris Bryant first place vote? Anyone want to take a shot at explaining that?

Time travel.

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