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1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: April 15, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4107314)It's refreshing to see a Cub running and running well. I think speed is overrated by the old-school baseball circle, but station-to-station baseball is a pretty awful viewing experience when the team is also lacking in power.
Seems like the Cubs have been void of a good base-stealer for years. I guess we had that wonderful season of Juan Pierre, but he wasn't so much a good base-stealer as he was a fast guy who sometimes didn't get thrown out. I think the closest thing to a base-stealer this franchise has had in recent years is Ryan Theriot and he was deceptively shitty at running the bases. Before that, they had a season of already decline Soriano swiping some bags before he became about as speedy on the bases as Prince Fielder. You probably have to go all the way back to Corey Patterson to find a guy on the Cubs who was both consistently fast and effective when trying to steal a base.
I was thinking Davey Lopes.
Rk Player Year SB CS1 Juan Pierre 2006 58 20
2 Corey Patterson 2004 32
3 Eric Young 2001 31 14
4 Eric Young 2000 54 7
5 Brian McRae 1996 37 9
6 Sammy Sosa 1995 34 7
7 Sammy Sosa 1993 36 11
8 Shawon Dunston 1988 30 9
9 Ryne Sandberg 1986 34 11
10 Davey Lopes 1985 47 4
11 Bob Dernier 1985 31 8
12 Ryne Sandberg 1985 54 11
13 Ryne Sandberg 1984 32 7
14 Bob Dernier 1984 45 17
15 Ryne Sandberg 1983 37 11
16 Bump Wills 1982 35 10
17 Ryne Sandberg 1982 32 12
18 Ivan de Jesus 1980 44 16
19 Ivan de Jesus 1978 41 12
20 Jose Cardenal 1975 34 12
Really?
Left-handed batter who has a modicum of power, good speed, and plays a solid-to-better CF? You have to really hold the "didn't reach his potential" thing against him not to peg him for a lengthy career. Once you accept that the holes in his game prevent him from being a legitimate starter, much less a star -- he's the very definition of a cromulent 4th OF.
AAA Nashville (Brewers)
But he always looked like a guy with no plate discipline whatsoever to me and guys like that usually get eaten alive as hitters. If he could hit 280-290 with regularity, he makes a good 4th OF but with that K-rate I didn't see that happening. Remember, we were at the height of sillyball. Patterson's 2004 was pretty good for him -- 266/320/452 -- but in those days that was just a 95 OPS+ and a low OBP one. I didn't think he would get better from there and his more typical line has resulted in a 79 OPS+ which, even by 4th/5th OF standards, isn't anything to get excited about. Reed Johnson by comparison has a 96 career OPS+ and average defense with a good chunk in CF. And, since 2006, Patterson has put up 0 WAR so it's not entirely clear why he has continued to get jobs.
Also we didn't have much in the way of defensive stats then. I think we all agreed he was a very good CF but I don't think we were thinking of him as being a 3-win player based on defense and baserunning (i.e. I might be more optimistic about him now). Also I didn't have a lot of faith in Cubs management at the time and, when they talked about Patterson, they talked about him needing to bunt more not walk more so I didn't have a lot of hope (although that might have been more 2004).
Anyway, not trying to brag about clairvoyance or anything, I just really dislike this type of hitter and we know they often don't develop. But, fair enough, he was only 22 back in 2002 so I probably was more optimistic than I remember and my disdain didn't really set in until 2005 -- but then I slammed the young Wily Mo and even soft-peddled the young Jose Reyes (who at least didn't K much) so I am consistent about young guys who don't seem to have a clue on the strike zone. I don't expect Drew Stubbs to have a particularly long career either but (a) at least he walks some and (b) his defensive numbers are outstanding so maybe he will.
And, yes, I'm concerned about Castro's walk rate but his K rate is OK, he hits 300, he's a SS, he's got a glorious set of ZiPS comps and it's a reduced offensive era. Patterson's 772 OPS in 2004 was only a 95; Castro's 773 last year was a 112. Alas, with 4 errors already this year, he may not be a SS for too many more years.
Pierre 7500
Manning 5800
Nixon 5800
Moreno 5500
Busby 4700
Lewis 4700
Patterson 4500
Goodwin 4300
Glanville 4300
Pettis 4200
fast Hunter 3700
By career WAR, Patterson actually comes in 10th out of 11 on that list. Adjust for playing time and he might beat Manning as well. He's last in walks with 2 fewer than Glanville.
So his career size is about right I guess. I'll grant you there's no reason to expect Patterson to have had a shorter career than Lewis or Goodwin so this type obviously can hold on for a long while ... and especially in the modern era for some reason. I guess every team "needs" a backup CF and maybe this type gets more playing time than they used to due to shortened benches.
Man, in nearly 1900 fewer PA, Willy Taveras has essentially the same WAR as Patterson.
I should note that Chone is not a particularly big fan of Patterson's defense -- a couple of very good years but mostly average.
I know Reed Johnson has had a nice run as a 4th OF - but he's really more of a short-side platoon 4th OF.
CP was never really good enough to form the strong side of a platoon, but he's a guy who won't kill you for a week or so if your CF is hurting. He can PR -- his SB/CS rate is good. His hacktastic ways are less painful for a player off the bench, too. I would think a passable CF who can post a ~95 OPS+, with plus SB/CS numbers, is a starter on a bad team, decent 4th OF on a good team.
Yeah - but that's the thing... all those guys were essentially starting and really shouldn't have been.
Make 'em all 4th OFs, logging ~250 PA's a year and they don't look so exposed.
Sure, but I never thought he was a "true" 95 OPS+. He might have been in his 2003-6 run. But, even if he was, when a guy is like that at his peak, he's generally not going to age well. (The guy you describe is pretty much a league-average CF by the way)
Yeah - but that's the thing... all those guys were essentially starting and really shouldn't have been.
And that's primarily the difference in PA. Patterson turned out to be no better than tons of guys who never got the chance to start because Patterson turned up on the right team at the right time. Miguel Cairo is similar -- he wasn't really any better than the flotilla of bad-hitting backup MI, he was just lucky enough to land on the expansion Rays and get 1500 PA over 3 seasons. This both boosts his career PA total and gives him a reputation that he can bank on to land backup jobs for years to come.
And back to Patterson -- he has a 79 career OPS+, Cairo has a 78 and the better OBP (in 250 more PA, Patterson has 28 fewer Rbat -- i.e. -116 vs -144. If back in 2002 I told you Patterson's bat wasn't going to get any better and he'd be a worse hitter than Miguel Cairo, would you have predicted 10 more years?
Anyway, these guys exist and you are going to have a backup CF. But it seems pretty random who will get jobs and who won't. Like I said, Patterson has had 0 WAR over the last 5 seasons -- why did he get jobs while others didn't. Aaron Rowand's "horrible" 2010-11 numbers are a good match to Patterson's career numbers and Rowand got cut. I did a quick search for similar seasons last year, turned up 32 players and for about 10 of them, it looks like it's going to be their last season. The others were either defensive whizzes (Mark Ellis, Rick Ankiel?) or guys who somehow still have jobs (Jose Lopez?).
Xavier Nady? Really. He got a job again? #### Corey Patterson, I want to know why I'm not on an ML roster!
You're name doesn't start with an X. That's worth like 200 points of OPS.
Hell, the Nationals gave Chad Tracy a job, too, and he didn't even play in the majors last year. Instead, he was putting up a 628 OPS in Japan!
And they're giving Nady playing time -- 26 PA already.
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