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Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Statcast’s New Defensive Metrics and Seattle’s Glove-First Outfield | U.S.S. Mariner

. I used his averages and calculated plays made above average for each player in 2015 and 2016, and then I looked at how their chances were distributed. That is, some players (Jackie Bradley, Jr.) saw proportionally more extremely difficult opportunities, while others (Kevin Kiermaier) saw fewer. The plays on the Statcast leaderboards apparently don’t include the absolutely never missed, can of corn, 100% probability balls. At least, that’s my guess just from noting that the sum of each players chances across all 5 buckets totals a fraction of their overall chances/putouts as reported elsewhere. If true, that means that the plays that really separate defenders are in a few not-terribly-large buckets in the ranges where catches are made 25-50% of the time or so. Given THAT, I’m pretty impressed with how reliable these numbers look. Kiermaier, Lorenzo Cain, Ender Inciarte, etc. look great both years despite varying playing time, opportunities, etc.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 15, 2017 at 06:12 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mariners, statcast

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   1. Sean Forman Posted: March 15, 2017 at 02:03 PM (#5417785)
So the current metrics look pretty good relative to the statcast data.

I wish he'd compared each stat to statcast separately.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: March 15, 2017 at 05:58 PM (#5418002)
I was at first thrown by the small number of chances in the leader table but, yes, somewhere it does confirm that it only looks at catches up to a 95% probability so the super-routine are not there. The Inside Edge data has them all but using different p cutpoints than Statcast ... but IE does indeed show that everybody catches nearly every routine one except for the occasional random brain fart drop/lost in sun.

Just eyeballing them yesterday, it seems the statcast categories create a fairly uniform distribution of chances, with about 25-30 opportunities for a full-time in each of the 5 categories.

What none of this is doing yet is converting to runs for easy comparison to the defensive stats. My comp yesterday of Kiermaier made Rfield look pretty good but maybe too high; the comp of Billy Hamilton didn't look so good as either Rfield missed a lot of very good plays or they assigned a very low run value to each. Teeny tiny samples obviously.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: March 15, 2017 at 06:02 PM (#5418008)
The article had an interesting point about how many opps do you use for the cutoff. Apparently those handful of innings guys are really quite bad. Using the defautlt 50 opps cutoff, he notes that for 2015 the league as a whole was +200 plays made. Apparently less of an issue in 2016. Not a huge deal, just that an "average" semi-regular OF might be 2-2.5 plays above the overall average.

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