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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Strikeouts put Stubbs in funk

James Jamerson…Shake him, wake him (when it’s over)!

With the Reds idle today, Stubbs essentially will have two days off before play resumes Friday in Pittsburgh. He was in the original lineup Wednesday, then Baker thought better of it.

...“Obviously I’ve been in a pretty big funk lately,” Stubbs said. “This gives me a chance to kind of regroup.”

Yes, the strikeouts bother Stubbs.

“That’s a big part of it,” he said. “At the same time, it’s not like I’ve been striking out a couple times and getting a few hits mixed in there lately. I think that just kind of adds to some of the anguish. It’s definitely something that’s not any fun.”

Stubbs has 38 steals and 92 runs, and he is trying to become only the fifth Red since 1900 with 40 steals and 100 runs in one year. However, Stubbs has hit just .179, with 22 strikeouts in 56 at-bats in September.

“You see the look on people’s faces sometimes,” Baker said. “I know he’s disappointed and hurting.”

Repoz Posted: September 22, 2011 at 03:50 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: projections, reds, sabermetrics

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1. Austin Posted: September 22, 2011 at 06:33 AM (#3932875)

The strikeouts are certainly very concerning, but they aren't too far out of line with what could have been expected based on scouting reports and previous minor- and major-league statistics. What I'm more worried about is that he's hitting for significantly less power than he had been in the majors in 2009 and 2010. With tons of strikeouts and not much power, it's going to be very hard for him to be much better than an average major league player.

2. Tricky Dick Posted: September 22, 2011 at 01:41 PM (#3932985)

I watched Stubbs get his 200th strike out and I was trying to think of a comparable player to him. Bobby Bonds came to mind; in his first two full seasons (1969 and 1970), he had 187 and 189 strike outs--which was considered to be a shocking number of Ks in that era. However, in looking at Bobby Bonds' stats, he likely is a better offensive player with more power (consistent 30+ HR power).

3. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: September 22, 2011 at 01:50 PM (#3933002)

For a moment I thought Franklin Stubbs was a hitting coach somewhere.

4. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: September 22, 2011 at 02:20 PM (#3933028)

Tricky:

Likely? LIKELY??

Bonds routinely churned out 130 OPS+ seasons and didn't drop below 116 in a full season until age 34. Bonds scored over 100 runs six times and several times passed 130. WAR? Bonds was a regular 5 plus guy. Stubbs is looking to be a 3 WAR fella.

And Stubbs is already 27 years. By that time Bonds had generated multiple seasons that dwarf anything done by Stubbs

Stubbs in not remotely comparable to Bobby Bonds.

Stubbs is worthy of being a starting cf thanks to his defense, speed, and the home run/walk that pops up just often enough to offset the strikeouts.

But his margin of error is pretty slim.

5. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: September 22, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#3933139)

What I'm more worried about is that he's hitting for significantly less power than he had been in the majors in 2009 and 2010.

One of the more interesting things when projecting players statistically is what to do when a guy has 700 or so major league at bats that are at odds with the 1300 or so minor league at bats that had come previously. There is this temptation to throw the minor league stuff out because he has established his level in the major leagues, but things don't always work that way (though sometimes they do).

Stubbs did not hit for a lot of power in the minor leagues.

Zips Reds Projections

I mention there that Dan's projection for Stubbs (.247/.321/.396, 92 OPS+) likely has to do with MLEs from 2009 and before, because I got a similar result for Stubbs using MLEs and a different one using just the MLB numbers.

6. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: September 22, 2011 at 04:56 PM (#3933156)

By the way, I came out as over the top in my response to TD. My emphasis was only meant to explain the gap between the two players.

7. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: September 22, 2011 at 05:01 PM (#3933162)

Let's see, fast centerfielders without a lot of power or a high average, who strike out a lot, and a lot more than they walk ... Corey Patterson? actually Austin Jackson is having a pretty similar year right now. Both broke in younger than Stubbs; Patterson always had injury problems, and Jackson would seem to have more of an upside than Stubbs. But such a player can be useful for a few years at his peak; live with the strikeouts and ask him to run and catch the ball.

8. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 22, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#3933177)

I haven't seen Stubbs play, so I don't know the validity of the comparison, but how about Mike Cameron as a potential comp (or an upside comp)? Cameron is better but also took a few seasons to really develop as a hitter.

9. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: September 22, 2011 at 05:51 PM (#3933196)

Dave

Very plausible.

If Stubbs can make a hair more contact, drive the ball a bit more and keep the defense he is the mayo version of Mike.

10. Walt Davis Posted: September 22, 2011 at 07:49 PM (#3933303)

Just glanced at Cameron's minor-league record and discovered he's one of a relatively small group of players whose minor-league BA kinda stinks (under 250 through age 22) but found success in the majors. However, he had a huge year at 23 (300/402/600 at AA) and a good start to 24 (275/378/533 at AAA) that signalled he'd figured something out.

EDIT: and HW, no need to apologize for #4, you saved me some typing. :-)

11. Dan Posted: September 22, 2011 at 08:09 PM (#3933328)

Stubbs seems like a white BJ Upton.

12. Tricky Dick Posted: September 22, 2011 at 10:52 PM (#3933469)

Harvey, I only used the word "likely" in order to give Stubbs the benefit of the doubt since he is only in his third season, and it's possible (maybe not likely) that he could show more power in the future. I was drawn to Bonds because I remembered that there was consternation over his strike out numbers, because there was greater stigma associated with strike outs in his era.

I like the Mike Cameron comparison better, though it would require Stubbs to show more power in the future to be close to him.

13. robinred

Posted: September 22, 2011 at 11:43 PM (#3933547)

I agree with the Cameron comp, although I think that would (duh) be the comp of things go well for Stubbs. I am not sure they will.

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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Strikeouts put Stubbs in funk

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