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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Sullivan: Jerry Blevins: Fangraphs

As you might’ve seen or read about already, Blevins came through with a clutch ninth-inning relief appearance that allowed the A’s to beat the Angels, 6-5. According to Cool Standings, the win boosted Oakland’s playoff odds from 85 percent to 90 percent, and the loss dropped LA’s playoff odds from 32 percent to 26 percent. Recall that the Angels were supposed to be one of the best teams in recent baseball history. There is now a three-in-four chance they don’t even reach the one-game playoff. I don’t know how these odds would’ve swung had the Angels rallied and won, but suffice to say things would look very different indeed.

The save that won the critics prize at Cannes and the wet t-shirt contest at the Salty Dog in Gainesville, Florida. Right now the save is stealing a twenty from your wallet and you don’t even care, for it is money that you have and a Jerry Blevins save is what you need.

Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 12, 2012 at 02:01 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: great baseball players

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   1. Famous Original Joe C Posted: September 12, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4234160)
Recall that the Angels were supposed to be one of the best teams in recent baseball history

Who? What? They were supposed to be better than they are, but didn't they project to be about as good as Texas, Boston (ha!), and NY, in the 90-95 win range?
   2. Greg Franklin Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4234190)
The offseason excitement wasn't about this or that projection system for LAA, it was about OMG Pujols and OMG C.J. Wilson. Maybe Texas would have given them a fight, but the narrative was indeed about the Angels being "one of the best teams in recent baseball history."

This was a good article. I followed along that inning listening on audio, so I appreciated Sullivan's GIFs. Some things struck me:

- For having a reputation as an ultra-aggressive manager, Scioscia should have had Peter Bourjos running before the GIDP happened. Mike undoubtedly was relying on the 64% Win Expectancy by standing pat, and not going with his gut.

- Bob Melvin seems to use Ryan Cook when Balfour isn't available to close (or is it the reverse? Hadn't Melvin taken away Balfour's closing privileges earlier in the year and caused him to pout?). If Cook had been available for Kendrick instead of being burned in the 8th, no way Kendrick gets to face Jerry Blevins.
   3. morineko Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4234191)
Speaking generally, it is profoundly unusual to be familiar with Jerry Blevins.

I've been following his career since 2007. Morales swung at some stuff a lot of other guys wouldn't have--that last one in that GIF sequence is usually the pitch that gets Blevins in count trouble.
   4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:25 PM (#4234209)
Recall that the Angels were supposed to be one of the best teams in recent baseball history

Who? What? They were supposed to be better than they are, but didn't they project to be about as good as Texas, Boston (ha!), and NY, in the 90-95 win range?
Right. This reads as taunting, not analysis.

If you want to do some fanboy crowing (and I would tend toward waiting until you've clinched), I'd point out that the A's weren't considered contenders in the preseason. The Angels weren't supposed to be one of the best teams in baseball in 2012, let along "recent baseball history".
   5. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4234213)
"Weren't supposed to be one of the best teams in 2012" is as wrong as "Were supposed to be one of the best in recent memory", in the other direction.
   6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4234215)
"Weren't supposed to be one of the best teams in 2012" is as wrong as "Were supposed to be one of the best in recent memory", in the other direction.
Yeah, that was wrong. They were supposed to be one of the five or so best teams in 2012, which is a perfectly reasonable definition of "one of the best." It's not what I meant to say.

I meant to say that they weren't supposed to be the best team in 2012, which should be a requirement for "one of the best in recent memory."
   7. Greg K Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:44 PM (#4234218)
The RLYW pre-season projections.

Not meant as a criticism, just to recall what at the time seemed pretty reasonable guesses.

Red Sox - 91 wins
Baltimore - 70 wins
White Sox - 76 wins
Oakland - 76 wins
Philadelphia - 89 wins
Pittsburgh - 72 wins
Dodgers - 75 wins (they've had a real roller-coaster year)

Goes to show what a crazy, unpredictable year it's been.

Angels were at 90 wins, good for the second WC (by a game over the Rays). Which is I believe around where I had them. I think my pre-season guesses were Yankees, Tigers, and Rangers in the divisions, and the Wild Cards between Boston/Tampa/Angels
   8. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4234219)
I'm pretty sure Sullivan is a Mariners fan so I don't think he's engaging in fanboy crowing. Clearly the Angels were supposed to be in a dogfight with the Rangers this year, the team some dopes were comparing to the 98 Yankees back in May so I think it's fair there were high expectations for the Angels even before Trout blew up. I still maintain the Angels aren't close to finished because all that frontline talent they have scares the bejebus me.

The cool thing about that double play is that the pitch came from the team's LOOGY throwing to a right handed hitter, the ball went to a guy who was a catcher last year to a guy who was a shortstop 2 weeks ago to a guy who was a minor league outfielder at the start of the year. It's just one if those years.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: September 12, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4234232)
Now, had you told folks that Mike Trout was going to be the second coming of Mickey Mantle, then they might have gone around saying the Angels were going to be one of the best teams in recent memory.

But as noted, they were projected to the 4th most wins in the AL, in a cluster with Texas, Boston and TB so arguably in a tie for second. I don't recall anybody claiming they were way better than the Rangers and if you aren't perceived as being way better than your division rivals, how can you be expected to be one of the best teams in recent memory?

But we're all entitled to a throw-away line here or there.
   10. Danny Posted: September 12, 2012 at 07:01 PM (#4234234)
For having a reputation as an ultra-aggressive manager, Scioscia should have had Peter Bourjos running before the GIDP happened. Mike undoubtedly was relying on the 64% Win Expectancy by standing pat, and not going with his gut.

I thought Bourjos would run, too, especially since Kottaras can't throw. But I was surprised to see that he's only tried to steal three times this year--twice successfully).
   11. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 12, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4234281)
The cool thing about that double play is that the pitch came from the team's LOOGY throwing to a right handed hitter, the ball went to a guy who was a catcher last year to a guy who was a shortstop 2 weeks ago to a guy who was a minor league outfielder at the start of the year. It's just one if those years.

This.

- Bob Melvin seems to use Ryan Cook when Balfour isn't available to close (or is it the reverse? Hadn't Melvin taken away Balfour's closing privileges earlier in the year and caused him to pout?). If Cook had been available for Kendrick instead of being burned in the 8th, no way Kendrick gets to face Jerry Blevins.

Also, it was astonishing listening to Amazing GF's profane rant about how nervous Balfour looked after walking the first two batters: "Get him out of there! Get him out of there right now! Just look at him! Why is he still in the game?" I tried to explain about needing to actually warm somebody else up first, but MAN did she not want to hear about it. Strangely impressive for somebody who insists that she is confused and kind of bored by the baseballing.
   12. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: September 12, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4234287)
Cook didn't pitch in the 8th. It would have been his third game pitching in a row, and he's been terrible when pitching on consecutive days, so was probably considered unavailable though.

If I'm remembering right the closer job this year has belonged to (in order) Balfour, Fuentes, Balfour, Cook, Balfour.
[Edit: looks like I misremembered, and that middle Balfour stint didn't happen]

   13. Squash Posted: September 12, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4234324)
I still maintain the Angels aren't close to finished because all that frontline talent they have scares the bejebus me.

Are people saying this? If so, they're nuts. No one's out of it yet and especially not the Angels, who have the single most obviously talented roster after the Rangers in the AL. And I personally would put the A's significantly below 90%, though I guess it's nice to hear the math says this, not that it matters.

Also, it was astonishing listening to Amazing GF's profane rant about how nervous Balfour looked after walking the first two batters: "Get him out of there! Get him out of there right now! Just look at him! Why is he still in the game?" I tried to explain about needing to actually warm somebody else up first, but MAN did she not want to hear about it. Strangely impressive for somebody who insists that she is confused and kind of bored by the baseballing.

I was screaming the same thing. I was following on the computer, which is absolutely maddening, shut down the browser and walked away, figuring I would open it up in 20 minutes and see how they were doing in extra innings (hopefully). When I saw they won I was rather surprised.
   14. Poster Nutbag Posted: September 12, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4234402)
Bob Melvin seems to use Ryan Cook when Balfour isn't available to close (or is it the reverse? Hadn't Melvin taken away Balfour's closing privileges earlier in the year and caused him to pout?).



If I'm remembering right the closer job this year has belonged to (in order) Balfour, Fuentes, Balfour, Cook, Balfour.
[Edit: looks like I misremembered, and that middle Balfour stint didn't happen]


Fuentes was the one who cried when he was removed from the role.
   15. Charlie O Posted: September 13, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4235022)
Fuentes was the one who cried when he was removed from the role.


It was both of them. Not a big deal, though. Nobody likes to loose his job and so long as he voices his displeasure without making an a$$ of himself or disrupting the team, it's fine. Fuentes would get a free pass for being the guy who greased the chute for Bob Geren's departure. (Stay away, Piazza!)

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