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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Sullivan: Jesus Montero Bad News/Good News

Jesus Is Just Somewhat Alright (even littler Arthur Reid Reynolds known version).

Safeco had a reputation for killing right-handed hitters, and it earned it. Safeco didn’t have a reputation for killing Bret Boone, because Boone knew how to hit and hit for power to right. Safeco only killed righties who hit like righties, and Boone didn’t hit like a righty. The hope was that Montero wouldn’t hit like a righty, either. That Montero could go the other way was a major reason why he appealed to the Mariners so damn much.

Since the Mariners traded for Jesus Montero, the Mariners played a whole season. According to FanGraphs, in 2012 Montero hit three home runs to the opposite field. According to FanGraphs, in 2011 Montero hit three home runs to the opposite field, in 12 percent as many plate appearances. Not one of those opposite-field home runs in 2012 was hit in Safeco, as Montero instead went yard in Texas, Tampa Bay, and New York.

Beyond that, Montero is given credit for 116 balls in play to right. He had 28 hits, just five for extra bases. Last year, 97 players knocked at least 100 balls in play to the opposite field. Montero’s opposite-field wOBA—.250—ranked tenth-worst. There are some good players near him, but this was supposed to be one of Montero’s strengths, and instead going to right seemed like a weakness. Or at least going to right and having success seemed like a weakness.

Repoz Posted: November 06, 2012 at 08:34 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mariners, sabermetrics

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   1. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: November 06, 2012 at 10:13 AM (#4294300)
What would Jesus do (besides hit .260)?
   2. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4294380)
The combination of the new era and Safeco blows my mind. According to BBRef's numbers, 260/298/386 is replacement level for a guy who started 58% of his games at DH.
   3. catomi01 Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4294397)
I'll take him back in NY if the mariner's aren't interested. You can have Freddy Garcia and Ichiro Suzuki back.
   4. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4294409)
I like Montero and have followed his career with interest. Last year was disappointing but not disastrous, IMO. A league average hitter at age 22, with his previous performance, has a chance to be a good player - especially if he can catch. For optimism, he's got Ryne Sandberg and Dale Murphy on his sims list for hitters through age 22. (Wow; I never realized that Sandberg suddenly put it all together at 24.)
   5. Tippecanoe Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4294482)
Safeco didn’t have a reputation for killing Bret Boone, because Boone knew how to hit and hit for power to right


Boone knew exactly how to hit for power in Safeco: PEDs
   6. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4294529)
I think TINSTAAPP needs to be amended to include power hitting catchers.
   7. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4294592)
I like Montero and have followed his career with interest. Last year was disappointing but not disastrous, IMO.


My recollection from his trek through the minors is that he's always taken some time to get adjusted at each level of progress, half a season or so during which he looks lost and hopeless and has the rubes all crying about how overhyped he was. He'll turn it around in 2013.
   8. catomi01 Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4294595)
isn't it a little bit already? I don't know much about his defense, but wasn't harper initially a catcher as a HS prospect and moved off to 'save' his bat for a less intense position? I know the Indians among some teams have developed a habit of giving their young catchers a lot of time at 1B...there has been talk of Mauer and Posey moving off the position basically since they were drafted, right? In some cases (montero, victor martinez, Jorge Posada) its the players defense that is the driving force...but teams seem to get that catcher is going to wear down a guy physically, and that there is a lot that goes into learning the position (time which could better be spend becoming a better hitter)...the flip side is what the yankees got the last decade or so - if you leave a good hitter at catcher and he doesnt kill you with the glove, its a huge boost in the lineup...hard to blame them for hoping montero would turn out the same way (and for hoping for more of the same with Gary Sanchez now)
   9. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4294597)
I think he'll turn it around, also. Especially because he's a clutch hitter: he is the best postseason performer ever.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4294759)
Just following up on #2:

SEA at home: 220/291/331, 3.2 r/g
opps at SEA: 229/288/338, 3.2 r/g

That's some exciting baseball there!
   11. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: November 06, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4294796)
That's some exciting baseball there!


Yeah, imagine how excited the fans are when they finally get on base. It doesn't happen often.
   12. deputydrew Posted: November 06, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4294955)

Yeah, imagine how excited the fans are when they finally get on base. It doesn't happen often.


I can relate.

In 2001, my Strat-O-Matic team went 27-135 as I saved my money and stockpiled talent for the future. I was so excited when I had a guy on base for my three hitter Dave Martinez or my cleanup guy (Operation Shutdown) Derek Bell. A horrible year, but it was actually really fun to play the games. Every win meant so much more and every big hit was a wonderful surprise.

(I did win the title in 2006, so I'm quite happy with how it all played out.)
   13. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2012 at 07:23 PM (#4295221)
(I did win the title in 2006, so I'm quite happy with how it all played out.)

In OOTP, you'd have been fired after that 27-135 year.

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