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Monday, June 25, 2012

Sullivan: Rizzo to make long-awaited Cubs debut on Tuesday

The Cubs offered Alfonso Soriano to Iowa in return but were turned down.

Anthony Rizzo, the Chicago Cubs’ top prospect, will make his debut Tuesday night against the New York Mets, a source confirmed.

Rizzo was removed from Iowa’s game in the fourth inning on Monday, and will fly to Chicago on Monday night. He won’t be activated until Tuesday, when the Cubs will make a corresponding roster move. The Cubs open a six-game homestand against the New York Mets on Monday night, and management didn’t want Rizzo to have to face lefty Johan Santana in his first game.

Rizzo was hitting .345 with 23 homer and 62 RBI in 69 games at Iowa. It’s one of the most anticipated Cubs’ debuts in years, and even Starlin Castro is anxious to see Rizzo in the lineup for the first time.

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 25, 2012 at 03:14 PM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: cubs, minor leagues

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1. Gern Blanston Posted: June 25, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4165834)

Just bought an upperdeck box to this game. Kind of nice to actually look forward to a trip to Ye Olde Balle Yarde.

2. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 25, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4165846)

Yeah, this should be pretty cool. His AAA numbers make it seem like he has his contact issues in order, I am hoping he can bring those adjustments to the Majors this time around.

Adjusting in Wrigley will probably be easier than adjusting in Petco too.

3. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: June 25, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4165850)

It’s one of the most anticipated Cubs’ debuts in years, and even Starlin Castro is anxious to see Rizzo in the lineup for the first time.

Since... Mark Prior?

4. plim Posted: June 25, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4165857)

Since... Mark Prior?

which was a decade ago, last month.

5. zonk Posted: June 25, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4165860)

I think Rizzo will end up being a solid to better 1B - I'm glad he's hit so well (albeit in the PCL) in the minors, and I'm moderately excited to see him perform at Wrigley... but "most anticipated Cubs debut in years"?

I mean, don't get me wrong, but --

1) He's in his 3rd org (granted, Jed seems attached to him), which means its hard to mark him as a truly elite prospect no matter what sort of numbers he posts. I think he peaked somewhere in the 20s so far as prospect lists go (if that?)

2) He already had his less-than-good MLB debut last September

I get it - there's really not much to be excited about on the Cubs this year - unless you count Soriano's continuing adventures in LF as "exciting".... but this just seems like massive overreach for 'excitement'.

Are we going to start hearing the same thing about Brett Jackson next?

Just to be clear, I do really think that Castro, Rizzo, and Jackson will be a nice offensive core to build around... I'm just not planning on taking an afternoon off to say "I saw Rizzo's first Cub game!"

Maybe I'm just jaded - and a bit on the end of "Well, Trout and Harper -- THOSE were debuts I was excited about".

6. Walt Davis Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4165868)

Zonk, it's as much a comment on the Cubs minor-league production as it is Rizzo. You could argue that Castro himself was a more anticipated debut but other than that, Prior sounds about right.

7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4165869)

I think you're really underselling the degree to which Rizzo has dominated in AAA. I have his MLE around 360/560. He looks like one hell of a hitter right now.

8. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4165870)

Are we going to start hearing the same thing about Brett Jackson next?

Come on, you're not a new Cubs fan. You know this is exactly how it worked. It's how it went with Castro, Pie, Patterson, Prior, Wood, etc.

9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4165871)

(#7 was directed to zonk. Also, it's closer to 350/560. What happened to the edit feature?)

10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4165873)

The guy is just 22 years old, demolished AAA for the second year running and lost professional development time to cancer. He is a legit prospect.

11. Gern Blanston Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4165874)

I get it - there's really not much to be excited about on the Cubs this year - unless you count Soriano's continuing adventures in LF as "exciting".... but this just seems like massive overreach for 'excitement'.

Are we going to start hearing the same thing about Brett Jackson next?

Sure, when Jackson starts putting up an 1.100 OPS. (And FWIW, I think Jackson will be a positive in the next couple years too.)

I mean, come on. Yes, Rizzo's been traded twice, but the first of those was as partial compensation for Adrian Gonzalez in his prime, he's always hit well in the minors, and let's face it, in addition to probably being rushed, Petco has to be the worst place on the planet for a young lefty power hitter making his major league debut.

Rizzo's not the prospect Trout and Harper are, but he doesn't need to be.

I mean, I get that the Cubs as currently constituted are shite, and that this season's been a vortex of suck--all the more reason to appreciate the things they do right. Hard not to think Cashner for Rizzo was a hell of a trade.

12. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4165876)

I can't edit my post but I wanted to add that it doesn't read well. He demolished AAA at young ages despite losing development time to cancer.

13. Gern Blanston Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4165877)

I'm just not planning on taking an afternoon off to say "I saw Rizzo's first Cub game!"

Neither am I. Fortunately, it's a night game.

14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4165878)

By contrast, I have Jackson's MLE at 285/390. They're not really similar at all in their development as hitters.

15. zonk Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4165879)

I'm really not trying to rain on anyone's parade here -- and yes, even he were "just" a top 20/30/50 whatever prospect -- that's still a nice feather. I likewise recognize he's mashed PCL pitching (hitters league though it is).

I fully expect him to be the 'answer' at 1B for the relative future.

As I alluded, it's probably just a matter of feeling like a 'consolation prize' debut next to Harper, Trout, etc...

16. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4165881)

I'm really not trying to rain on anyone's parade here -- and yes, even he were "just" a top 20/30/50 whatever prospect -- that's still a nice feather. I likewise recognize he's mashed PCL pitching (hitters league though it is).

It may be a hitter's league but Rizzo is still leading in OPS by nearly 0.100.

17. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 25, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4165892)

Cubs are going to be fielding a team in which perhaps half the lineup is only good enough to man first base defensively. That should really please the pitchers.

On the plus side the Cubs might actually score more than 3 runs in a game once in awhile. I believe they are still on pace to score less than 600 runs this season.

18. Brian C Posted: June 25, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4165917)

I'm really not trying to rain on anyone's parade here -- and yes, even he were "just" a top 20/30/50 whatever prospect -- that's still a nice feather. I likewise recognize he's mashed PCL pitching (hitters league though it is).

Yeah, it's a hitters league, but come on. He had an OPS of 1110 entering today's game. League OPS is 776. Iowa is a pitchers park in that league.

Context matters in the PCL as much as it does in the minors. Noting that it's a hitters league doesn't really mean anything by itself, and at any rate it's not even a substantial caveat when a guy is dominating the league like he is.

19. Brian C Posted: June 25, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4165919)

^that should say "Context matters in the PCL as much as it does in the majors."

20. Gern Blanston Posted: June 25, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4165920)

Yep, they're on pace to score 594.

21. Gern Blanston Posted: June 25, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4165921)

Yeah, it's a hitters league, but come on. He had an OPS of 1110 entering today's game. League OPS is 776. Iowa is a pitchers park in that league.

Right--it's not just that his raw AAA look awesome on their face (which they do), but that taking context into account, he's been by far the best hitter in his league.

Everyone in the PCL might have their numbers inflated by PCL conditions, but not everybody's the best hitter in the league.

22. Gern Blanston Posted: June 25, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4165923)

That should read "raw AAA *stats*," of course. WTH's up with the edit function today?

23. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 25, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4165934)

Jim is proving a point.

24. John DiFool2 Posted: June 25, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4165971)

I don't know how many more of these former Sox prospects I will be able to stand performing like crazy for other teams. Oh yeah, I'll still be rooting for him to suceed while at the same time I'll be directing a lot of ire in Theo's general direction...

25. Brian White Posted: June 25, 2012 at 06:32 PM (#4165973)

1) He's in his 3rd org (granted, Jed seems attached to him), which means its hard to mark him as a truly elite prospect no matter what sort of numbers he posts. I think he peaked somewhere in the 20s so far as prospect lists go (if that?)

26. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 25, 2012 at 06:39 PM (#4165984)

Hell, Edwin Jackson was traded 6 times before he hit FA and joined the Nationals.

27. Gern Blanston Posted: June 25, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4165988)

I don't think being traded twice is a sign that a prospect isn't going to pan out, though. Gio Gonzalez was traded three times before making the majors, and he certainly lived up to (and exceeded) expectations.

Right, and the circumstances of Rizzo's trades are indicative of how highly he was regarded, not how poorly.

28. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 25, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4166097)

Right, and the circumstances of Rizzo's trades are indicative of how highly he was regarded, not how poorly.

Agreed, and it may also be indicative of how crazy Jed Hoyer is about Rizzo.

Remember, in order to get Adrian Gonzalez, the Red Sox had to give San Diego several of its most promising prospects.

I mean, he's not Josh Reddick or anything, but Rizzo may be a good player!

29. The District Attorney Posted: June 25, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4166121)

Anyway, will LaHair play LF?

And if he makes a fool of himself out there, will it decrease his trade value? :)

(It may also decrease Alfonso Soriano's formerly skyrocketing trade value!)

30. JJ1986 Posted: June 25, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4166124)

Anyway, will LaHair play LF?

I would guess Soriano/DeJesus/LaHair from left to right. Not good defense out there.

31. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 25, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4166133)

And if he makes a fool of himself out there, will it decrease his trade value? :)

He's been playing RF for a handful of games recently. He certainly doesn't look natural or effortless out there but he looks like he'll do as long as he hits. Has made some bad approaches to the ball when its hit over his head and such and his throws don't look to be bullets but outside of a stronger arm I think his defense can improve as he works on it.

32. Kiko Sakata

Posted: June 25, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4166134)

What JJ said. They've actually been playing that outfield fairly frequently the last week or so (with either Steve Clevenger or Jeff Baker at 1st base - and you wondered how this team was on pace for <600 runs scored). LaHair's less terrible than I would have guessed in RF (which is an admittedly low bar).

33. streak of perros Posted: June 26, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4166309)

I mean, come on. Yes, Rizzo's been traded twice, but the first of those was as partial compensation for Adrian Gonzalez in his prime, he's always hit well in the minors, and let's face it, in addition to probably being rushed, Petco has to be the worst place on the planet for a young lefty power hitter making his major league debut.

Highly regarded first baseman now with his fourth organization.

34. KT's Pot Arb Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:08 AM (#4166320)

Everyone in the PCL might have their numbers inflated by PCL conditions, but not everybody's the best hitter in the league.

Sample size caveats, but putting up an 1.100 OPS in Iowa also seems like a significant improvement over a 1.050 in Tucson. My guess Iowa is at least 10% tougher to hit in.

35. Andere Richtingen

Posted: June 26, 2012 at 06:22 AM (#4166344)

I ask one thing of the Hoyer/Epstein administration: not to make me experience the Kübler-Ross Five Stages of Grief as I watch the development of a Cubs position prospect.

Rizzo is the first test.

36. Brian C Posted: June 26, 2012 at 10:03 AM (#4166449)

Looks like Cardenas is being sent down to make room.

37. Dan Posted: June 26, 2012 at 10:08 AM (#4166457)

Sample size caveats, but putting up an 1.100 OPS in Iowa also seems like a significant improvement over a 1.050 in Tucson. My guess Iowa is at least 10% tougher to hit in.

This is a good point and something that I think people have largely ignored or just not given much thought to. Fangraphs has him going from a 149 wRC+ last season for Tucson to a 175(!) this year for Iowa. That's actually a HUGE step forward.

38. zonk Posted: June 26, 2012 at 10:15 AM (#4166468)

What JJ said. They've actually been playing that outfield fairly frequently the last week or so (with either Steve Clevenger or Jeff Baker at 1st base - and you wondered how this team was on pace for <600 runs scored). LaHair's less terrible than I would have guessed in RF (which is an admittedly low bar).

Just looking through the defensive stats -- the Cubs have been surprisingly good defensively this year, despite DeJesus being the only real defensive upgrade (I suppose the rotation in CF beats what was left of Byrd last year, too) -- and at least per BBREF's numbers, Barney and Castro are 1-2 in NL dWAR.

I've always thought of Barney as replaceable flotsam, and I suppose he might really be that -- but I'm increasingly becoming comfortable with the idea of him being the 2B for the next few years, at least until he becomes expensive.

39. Gern Blanston Posted: June 26, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4166482)

Looks like Cardenas is being sent down to make room.

And right after his ringing "three-bagger" last night, too!

40. Gern Blanston Posted: June 26, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4166486)

If (Dusty) Baker were still around, I'd assume they're keeping (Jeff) Baker on the roster to make sure Rizzo had a good platoon partner.

I hope I'm not being pollyannaish in assuming that's not the case now.

41. Andere Richtingen

Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4166775)

I've always thought of Barney as replaceable flotsam, and I suppose he might really be that -- but I'm increasingly becoming comfortable with the idea of him being the 2B for the next few years, at least until he becomes expensive.

As long as Barney's inherent weaknesses are recognized, and 2B is looked at as a position where the Cubs can improve, I don't care.

42. Brian C Posted: June 26, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4166824)

Rizzo will be already the 40th player to appear in a game this season for the Cubs, and we're still in June. For comparison, last season they only had 42 all season. In 2010, they only had 43.

43. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 26, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4166831)

Also, did anybody else notice that Vitters is making a show of cromulence in AAA this year? He is actually showing a bit of patience to go with a bit of power and a bit of average. If he can play a bit of defense he might be worth a try at third base if Stewart doesn't get his act together soon.

44. Brian C Posted: June 26, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4166858)

Defense has always been a huge question for him, though, hasn't it? And that "bit" of patience is really just a bit - he's only walked 16 times in 290 PA, and not at all in at least his last 10 games. I agree that his power is encouraging, though.

I don't think we'll see him this year, at any rate. I don't think the front office will play service time games with him like they did with Rizzo, but still it seems clear that they're not going to promote prospects on a whim or out of pique as the losses mount. Maybe he'll get a September callup but I doubt it - probably the best he can do is end the season playing well and go into spring as a candidate to win the 3B job in 2013.

45. zonk Posted: June 26, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4166938)

Speaking of touted minor leaguers --

Javier Baez is hitting 286/375/481 with 4 HRs (with 9 SBs) through 88 PAs for Peoria. He's striking out a lot, but that's not bad for a 19 yo getting his first taste of full season ball.

46. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 26, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4167015)

I dont think he will be called up either but I would eyeball that MLE at about a .700 OPS which may actually make him the best 3B option.

Also, it's nice to hope that new organizational instruction can help him shore up the weaknesses in his plate approach.

47. zonk Posted: June 26, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4167053)

In Rizzo news - he's batting 3rd tonight.

In Cubs proxy news -

The ChiSox just released Fukudome and the Rangers have placed Colby Lewis on the DL (meaning, might they be interested in a Garza or Dempster?)

48. Dan Posted: June 26, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4167056)

Rizzo batting third tonight for the Cubs. Throwing him right in there.

49. Dan Posted: June 26, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4167057)

Oh damn, I got scooped while catching up on the thread. Coke to zonk.

50. Walt Davis Posted: June 26, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4167120)

Just looking through the defensive stats -- the Cubs have been surprisingly good defensively this year, despite DeJesus being the only real defensive upgrade (I suppose the rotation in CF beats what was left of Byrd last year, too) -- and at least per BBREF's numbers, Barney and Castro are 1-2 in NL dWAR.

This is most likely the "shift" mystery. Barney's numbers are historic and, while good defensively, he ain't Maz. But I am perfectly comfortable with him out there for the next couple of years -- he's close enough to average that he's not a problem. I'm not sure how many genuine upgrades are available anyway unless we want to spring big Cano money in a couple of years (which is a major risk).

51. Dan Posted: June 26, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4167129)

This is most likely the "shift" mystery. Barney's numbers are historic and, while good defensively, he ain't Maz. But I am perfectly comfortable with him out there for the next couple of years -- he's close enough to average that he's not a problem. I'm not sure how many genuine upgrades are available anyway unless we want to spring big Cano money in a couple of years (which is a major risk).

There's no mystery about it. DRS handles shifts stupidly, making it a terrible stat to use for the defensive component of WAR.

52. zonk Posted: June 26, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4167277)

Clearly, our long national nightmare is over -- Rizzo singles in his first AB.

53. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 26, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4167279)

Did they end up ruling it an error or something? On Yahoo the PBP states that Rizzo is safe on a fielding error.

54. Dan Posted: June 26, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4167379)

I think it was initially an error, later changed to a hit by the scorer. I assumed it would be a hit when I saw it.

55. Brian C Posted: June 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4167660)

Goodbye Randy Wells, welcome back Rafael Dolis. Progress, or not? You decide.

One thing I don't understand - ESPN is reporting that Wells was DFA'd, but they could have optioned him to Iowa, right? So I guess they're just tired of his ass, and/or there's another transaction coming.

56. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4167675)

WTF happened to Wells? For a while he looked like a nice middle rotation guy who could put up a 2.5 K/BB ratio.

57. Brian C Posted: June 27, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4167703)

I dunno, I always thought he looked like a guy that was just begging the league to figure him out. His stuff was never really that great, and his 2009 ERA was clearly illusory even at the time. It was just a matter of time for him, IMO.

58. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 27, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4167726)

BTW, Bryan LaHair in his last 30 games: .198/.263/.330.

59. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 27, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4168059)

Well, that was horrible.

60. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 27, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4168085)

Samardzija is gassed. The problem is, who could be called up to fill in if Wells is finished?

61. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 27, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4168090)

Oh yeah, Volstad. I tried to suppress that memory.

He's currently getting shelled in AAA.

62. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 27, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4168095)

I told you guys they shouldn't have gone for the complete game that first time.

63. Brian C Posted: June 30, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4170142)

The Soler contract is finally official. He'll report to AZ for extended spring training, and then it will be interesting to see where he goes from there. Probably Peoria, I'd guess.

64. Brian C Posted: June 30, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4170149)

In other Cubs Cuban news, Gerardo Concepcion is still terrible down in Peoria, with a 7.39 and 30/28 BB/K.

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Monday, June 25, 2012

Sullivan: Rizzo to make long-awaited Cubs debut on Tuesday

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