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Friday, August 18, 2017

Summer Top-100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

New top ten

1. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
2. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
3. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
4. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox
5. Ronald Acuna, CF, Atlanta Braves
6. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
8. Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals
9. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
10. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians

Jim Furtado Posted: August 18, 2017 at 07:58 AM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: prospect rankings, prospects

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. villageidiom Posted: August 18, 2017 at 09:48 AM (#5516024)
One of them is on the Red Sox, and two of them combined are Chris Sale. I love top prospects, I really do, but Chris Sale is awesome.
   2. JJ1986 Posted: August 18, 2017 at 10:02 AM (#5516034)
Wow, that list is thoroughly dominated by international signings.
   3. Bote Man Posted: August 18, 2017 at 10:20 AM (#5516050)
They might be able to put together a Y-star team. Last night Yolmer Sanchez drove in Yoan Moncada. Throw in a Yuniesky and a Yadier and you're well on your way to an all-Y team.
   4. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 18, 2017 at 11:26 AM (#5516088)
[3] So basically a Cuban star team, then?
   5. bfan Posted: August 18, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5516095)
Wow, that list is thoroughly dominated by international signings.


Yes; that is interesting. I wonder if a part of this reason is a lot of the domestic signings are older players (college third years) who spend less time in the minors and thus show up less on prospect lists. Alex Bregman would be a good example; Dansby Swanson would be another.
   6. Random Transaction Generator Posted: August 18, 2017 at 12:15 PM (#5516137)
Vladdy Jr. doesn't turn 19 until next March, and has drawn more walks than strikeouts in 166 minor league games, while putting up close to a .300/.400/.460 line.
Man, I hope he's the real deal.
   7. JAHV Posted: August 18, 2017 at 01:15 PM (#5516209)
The Angels have guys on a prospect list! Sure, they're down in the 80's, but this is the first time they've had players on a top 100 list in what feels like forever. (Actually, I think Newcomb showed up on a few lists after they drafted him, but whatever.)
   8. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 18, 2017 at 02:05 PM (#5516263)
Vladdy Jr. doesn't turn 19 until next March, and has drawn more walks than strikeouts in 166 minor league games

His mom must have had a hell of an eye.
   9. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: August 18, 2017 at 02:20 PM (#5516277)
They might be able to put together a Y-star team.
This of course should be referred to as a "Y'All Star Team".
   10. Walt Davis Posted: August 18, 2017 at 06:23 PM (#5516492)
Yonder Alonso sticks his hand up, hopes you don't notice his Seattle hitting.

Yorvit Torrealba will be the back-up C.

Yosvanny Terry will take the sax solos.

Yves St. Laurent will design the unis.

Yes will perform the national anthem on opening day.

And of course Youppi will be the mascot.
   11. Khrushin it bro Posted: August 18, 2017 at 06:26 PM (#5516493)
Yogi Berra will have a statue outside the stadium.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: August 18, 2017 at 06:46 PM (#5516502)
Does Kopech really deserve that ranking? The K-rate's great, the BB-rate is not -- obviously a good prospect but top 10?

On the point that maybe the college guys are getting promoted quickly ... that seems unlikely. It would require something like college prospects always dominate the top 20 pre-season but are nearly absent from 21-40 such that, mid-season, the college draftees are in the majors and the other guys all moved up ... only to see next year's pre-season top 20 dominated by college guys again. That this is a one-year fluke or a longer-term dominance of international talent seems more likely.

That said this year's top hitting debuts seem dominated by draftees -- Bellinger, Chapman, DeJong, Zimmer, Happ, Camargo, Fisher, Robertson (who?), Devers, Riddle are the top 10 and everybody with more than 0.5 WAR. Other guys with 100+ PAs seem evenly split (based on my racist name profiling, too lazy to check).

Also ... some guy named Phil Ervin on the Reds ... 4 for 8 with 1 double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K ... he's on a 26 WAR pace!

On the pitcher side I'm sure there are thousands of relievers but most of those wouldn't have been top prospects. Looking at guys with at least 1 start, there are 16 guys with 50+ IP and that list also looks to be dominated by draftees.

And Texas has a pitcher names Austin Bibens-Dirkx ... we should champion him just for his name but alas it seems he can't break a pane of glass with his fastball and he's unlikely to last long in the majors. He's also 32. What's the first cutoff for a MLBPA pension -- something like 43 service days? Anyway, he's at 92 days and counting so that's pretty sweet.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: August 18, 2017 at 06:48 PM (#5516503)
How could I forget Yangervis Solarte? (Also Yan Gomes but he's less interesting and there are too many Cs already.)
   14. RickG Posted: August 18, 2017 at 10:30 PM (#5516674)
I dunno if Kopech deserves it, Walt, but he's absolutely torn up double-A for the last little while. Last six starts: 41 innings, 3 ER, 7 walks, 54 Ks. Maybe he's just hot (and the Sox just sent him to AAA, so we'll find out) but it stands to reason that if you believed in Kopech before, and you're making your top prospect list right now, you could bump him up. Especially when you take injuries and ineffectiveness into account.

In the preseason top 100 at Fangraphs, Kopech was 21st. Other pitchers:

6) Alex Reyes (injured, Tommy John)
10) Anderson Espinoza (injured, Tommy John)
12) Yadier Alvarez (5.31 ERA in A-Ball, though promoted to A last month)
18) Francis Martes (a reliever at the moment; plus he appears to have aged/experienced out of Fangraphs' eligibility)
19) Lucas Giolito (command issues, 4.48 ERA, promoted to MLB anyway)

I don't think there's an argument to bumping Kopech over Reyes, Espinoza, or Giolito, and Martes no longer counts. And I know you can't scout the stat line but Kopech is getting better results than Alvarez, at a higher level.

So with all that - Kopech is probably, right now, the best pitching prospect in the game. 9th overall seems totally justifiable.

I don't quite get why Moncada's still ranked number 1. If he was a shortstop I think I'd understand, but the defensive value at 2B doesn't seem worthy enough to support what's (so far, there's A LOOOONNNG way to go) been a middling bat.
   15. Tim M Posted: August 18, 2017 at 11:14 PM (#5516694)
Devers Age 20
81 PA, .356/.420/.699
Plus the HR off Chapman, the triple play, the easing of the pain of the Panda disaster, he is just a godsend.

Moncada Age 22
102 PA, .190/.333/.357
Plus the 10 sports cars, the 85 twinkies..

Not that I've got a dog in the fight or anything.
   16. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: August 19, 2017 at 06:58 AM (#5516771)
Kopech has a pretty significant upside for a guy who is at AA. He is a guy who still has room for growth and projection that most AA and AAA players don't have.
   17. RickG Posted: August 19, 2017 at 07:38 AM (#5516774)
Tim, one thing I've sensed from here and twitter (so, you know, from extremely biased sources) is that people somehow believe the Red Sox fleeced Rick Hahn because he 'settled for' Moncada with Benintendi and Devers rolling in the bigs. Do you hear that in the world of Boston Twitter?

I think it's dumb. I believe it was reported that BOS said no on Benintendi, I don't know if Hahn tried for Devers, but so what? He got the #1 prospect at the time and the #1 pitching prospect six months later. Can't predict the future - Devers had contact questions, and there were concerns that he'd fully tap his power. He has settled both...more power to him.
   18. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: August 19, 2017 at 08:31 AM (#5516785)
Yakov Smirnoff can host the rubber chicken dinners in the off-season.

Yakety Sax can be the 7th inning sing (eh, hum) along song.

.
   19. villageidiom Posted: August 19, 2017 at 08:51 AM (#5516790)
Tim, one thing I've sensed from here and twitter (so, you know, from extremely biased sources) is that people somehow believe the Red Sox fleeced Rick Hahn because he 'settled for' Moncada with Benintendi and Devers rolling in the bigs. Do you hear that in the world of Boston Twitter?
I am not Tim, but I haven't heard any such thing out of Boston. At the time there were some grumblings that trading away Moncada *and* Kopech was too much, and that Dombrowski might trade every prospect away. But one look on the field shows many prospects who were promoted. Oh, and Chris Sale.
   20. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: August 19, 2017 at 09:31 AM (#5516796)
I can't figure out if the Phillies having 8 players in the Top 100, but all 34 or lower, is necessarily that good of a thing. You don't win the WS with a bunch of solid, unspectacular players but no stars. I'm fearful that in 2021, the Phils will peak at an 85 win team with this group.
   21. Ziggy: The Platonic Form of Russell Branyan Posted: August 19, 2017 at 10:17 AM (#5516804)
Apparently 'Dirkx' means 'son of Dirk' and really is a name. Which I did not know.

And Edmundo, I don't know if the Kozma blues are really warranted. Having a bunch of cheap players lets you sign your stars in FA.
   22. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 19, 2017 at 10:38 AM (#5516807)
#### Pete Kozma.
   23. Bote Man Posted: August 19, 2017 at 01:38 PM (#5516843)
Bibens-Dirkx is from Down Under, so I'm shocked, SHOCKED! that Walt didn't know this key fact.

Oh, and F@CK PETE KOZMA!!!
   24. Tim M Posted: August 19, 2017 at 01:41 PM (#5516847)
Do you hear that in the world of Boston Twitter?


At the time of the trade, the divide was "win now" or "lose now but win for 10 years later on". Moncada at the time was #1 overall (and somehow still is) and we all pictured Sale throwing 1/2 a great season and then going all David Price as the other 2 blossomed into superstars. But hindsight = 20/20 and to the extent that 81 PA can represent anything real, it is looking like genius.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: August 19, 2017 at 10:42 PM (#5517149)
Huh? Bibens-Dirkx was born, went to high school and college in Oregon. He's less Aussie than I am. (Did he do a brief tour in the Aussie league or something? Does b-r track the Aussie league?)
   26. ReggieThomasLives Posted: August 19, 2017 at 11:55 PM (#5517166)
Oregon is just like Australia. They are both on the pacific ocean and uh, something, something?
   27. Bote Man Posted: August 20, 2017 at 10:58 AM (#5517237)
The name Bibens-Dirkx threw me off. How could he be a True American with a name like that??!! I continue to believe that his B-Ref page has been defaced and that his true origin is from a land down under.

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