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Monday, January 23, 2012

[OT] Superbowl thread

Considering the Superbowl is in two weeks, and the other thread NFL thread has a lot of clutter. It is time to make a new thread so the rest of the site can talk about important things, such as Ryan Bruan’s STD test, birther conspiracies, and or the superhuman feats of our dear leader Kim Jong Il.

Tripon Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:38 AM | 711 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1. Leroy Kincaid Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:17 AM (#4042933)
It seems unfair that a 9-7 team was allowed in the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. But I can certainly see the Giants beating the Pats.
   2. AJM Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:25 AM (#4042937)
Pats favored by 3, I had guessed 4. 55.5 O/U, that seems high.
   3. TomH Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:46 AM (#4042940)
so, as a guy who doesn't follow NFL much, someone 'splain to me in 50 words why the Giants have looked great in th eplayoffs after being medicore all year. Is it SSS or other? The betting line suggests "other".
   4. Kurt Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:52 AM (#4042944)
Everyone's healthy now. Plus, Atlanta and Green Bay didn't play very well.
   5. AJM Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:54 AM (#4042945)
The Giants can either look great (they beat the Pats in NE and almost beat the Packers*) or look bad (lost twice by two touchdowns to the 5-11 Redskins). Don't know why that is.

*I'm talking about the regular season, obviously.
   6. Fancy Pants is braggadocious about his Handle Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:59 AM (#4042949)
so, as a guy who doesn't follow NFL much, someone 'splain to me in 50 words why the Giants have looked great in th eplayoffs after being medicore all year.


Did they look great though? Atlanta completely no showed. Green Bay played horribly. Obviously, you need to give some credit to their defense on that, but I don't think those were exactly inspiring performances.

And SF should have won that game. They blew it on 2 boneheaded plays, and a stupid gameplan.
   7. i'm not STEAGLES and you shouldn't be either Posted: January 23, 2012 at 09:27 AM (#4042954)
They blew it on 2 boneheaded plays
i think it's a bit unfair to pin that loss on anyone more than that kick returner.
   8. Guapo Posted: January 23, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4042964)
Holy cow, the Pats are FAVORITES? If I was a betting man I would get in on that in a hurry. Manning might throw for 600 yards against them.
   9. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 09:50 AM (#4042969)
Did they look great though? Atlanta completely no showed. Green Bay played horribly. Obviously, you need to give some credit to their defense on that, but I don't think those were exactly inspiring performances.


They beat 2 pretty good teams by a combined 61-22, including beating a 15-1 team in their own stadium. I think they need to get some credit for that. (And if you want to take it even further, both Green Bay TD came off extremely questionable calls).

I know the Football Outsiders numbers had them as the best team in football over the last 4 weeks, for whatever that's worth.
   10. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: January 23, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4042972)
i think it's a bit unfair to pin that loss on anyone more than that kick returner.


I wasn't paying that close attention, and I don't know the Niners at all, but was he the same guy who earlier made the ill advised diving grab of a punt while surrounded by Giant defenders?
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:06 AM (#4042975)
Holy cow, the Pats are FAVORITES? If I was a betting man I would get in on that in a hurry. Manning might throw for 600 yards against them.

Yeah, the Pats secondary against Cruz/Nicks/Manningham is a terrible matchup for NE.
   12. dave h Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:06 AM (#4042976)
As a Pats fan, the Giants are a far worse matchup than the Niners would have been. The Patriots can score on anyone, so I care less about the quality of the defense they're playing. The exception to this would be if there is a consistent pass rush, and while the Giants rush is still good, it's not historically great like it was in 2007. The other big difference is the Giants offensive line - if I remember correctly they had five healthy starters for a multi-year period around that Super Bowl. Even without a great line though, Eli is having the best season of his career and could still carve up the Patriots D, which is good at stopping the run but very weak against the pass. I'd expect a game like their regular season matchup - some periods where no one scores, some times when big points are put up. I'd expect the winner to be in the high 20's/low 30's.
   13. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4042984)
Btw, did anyone notice this yesterday at the end of the half? The Niners got the ball back with 2:51 on the clock. They ran it on first down, the play ended at about 2:45 or 2:46, but somehow the clock ran all the way down to the 2 minute warning. Shouldn't they have had to run another play before the 2 minute warning? Did I miss something?
   14. villageidiom Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4043020)
They ran it on first down, the play ended at about 2:45 or 2:46, but somehow the clock ran all the way down to the 2 minute warning. Shouldn't they have had to run another play before the 2 minute warning? Did I miss something?
The play clock is reset either to 40 seconds from that point, or 25 seconds from the point the ball is ready for play. I don't recall the play, but given the field conditions and the usual scrum after a run, it wouldn't surprise me if it took more than 15 seconds from the whistle to the ball being ready.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4043023)
They ran it on first down, the play ended at about 2:45 or 2:46, but somehow the clock ran all the way down to the 2 minute warning. Shouldn't they have had to run another play before the 2 minute warning? Did I miss something?


For as much as people say "football is a game of inches" its ridiculous how far off they can be with spots and the clock and act like it doesn't matter, despite the availability of technology to fix these things. There was some recent study that showed an alarming number of "spots" were off by a yard or more.
   16. villageidiom Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4043032)
For as much as people say "football is a game of inches" its ridiculous how far off they can be with spots and the clock and act like it doesn't matter, despite the availability of technology to fix these things. There was some recent study that showed an alarming number of "spots" were off by a yard or more.
Can the technology fix it in real time? Or would it require a replay review after every play?
   17. Jose Can You Seabiscuit Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4043037)
For those who follow the NFL has this been a "weak" year in the NFL? I don't follow it closely but I don't see either the Giants or Pats as an especially impressive team and even the 15-1 Packers had a defense that allowed teams to move pretty much at will. Is this just a function of the rule changes opening up the game or is there really a lack of well-rounded teams this year?
   18. OCF Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4043040)
One thing I was noticing with all that technology: if the network's blue line of scrimmage is to be believed, defensive linemen, especially 49ers, were routinely lining up offside. With no flags thrown.
   19. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4043049)
One thing I was noticing with all that technology: if the network's blue line of scrimmage is to be believed, defensive linemen, especially 49ers, were routinely lining up offside. With no flags thrown.


I don't think you need the blue line to determine that. The number of defensive ends who have clearly been lined up in the neutral zone this postseason is astounding.

   20. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4043052)

Holy cow, the Pats are FAVORITES? If I was a betting man I would get in on that in a hurry. Manning might throw for 600 yards against them.


One thing that has amazed me is the irrational confidence of Giants fans. Yes, they won in 2007, with a different team, against a different, superior team. So what? The Patriots won against a superior Rams team in 2001. That doesn't make them world-beaters. Not that Giants fans should be quaking in their shoes. It's one thing to like your chances. It's another to predict a complete thrashing of what, after all, has been a pretty good Patriots team.

For those who follow the NFL has this been a "weak" year in the NFL?


Football Outsiders ranked Green Bay the second-weakest #1 team since 1992. Only the San Francisco 49ers in 1993 came out worse.
   21. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4043054)
For those who follow the NFL has this been a "weak" year in the NFL? I don't follow it closely but I don't see either the Giants or Pats as an especially impressive team and even the 15-1 Packers had a defense that allowed teams to move pretty much at will. Is this just a function of the rule changes opening up the game or is there really a lack of well-rounded teams this year?

Yeah, I don't think that any team this year is as good as either the Packers or the Steelers from last year. In the Giants' case, though, it may be mostly the injuries that've held them back, since they've looked pretty damn good once their full roster got a few games under their belts.

But you're definitely right about Green Bay. They reminded me (going back a ways now) of some of the Norm Van Brocklin LA Rams teams of the 50's, capable of scoring 50 points a game but equally capable of giving up 40. I know that defense isn't supposed to be the critical factor any more, but AFAIWC they were always looking like an accident waiting to happen.
   22. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4043056)
Can the technology fix it in real time? Or would it require a replay review after every play?


Seems like you could fix it in real time if you had some sort of GPS technology with the football, right? Maybe I'm wrong. The clock thing certainly seems like it should be more accurate than it is.

One thing I was noticing with all that technology: if the network's blue line of scrimmage is to be believed, defensive linemen, especially 49ers, were routinely lining up offside. With no flags thrown.


Okay, I was wondering whether I was the only one that noticed that. And I wasn't even using the blue line, just where the yard line where the line of scrimmage was supposed to be.
   23. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4043057)
One thing that has amazed me is the irrational confidence of Giants fans. Yes, they won in 2007, with a different team, against a different, superior team. So what? The Patriots won against a superior Rams team in 2001. That doesn't make them world-beaters. Not that Giants fans should be quaking in their shoes. It's one thing to like your chances. It's another to predict a complete thrashing of what, after all, has been a pretty good Patriots team.

Realistically speaking, that 3 point line favoring the Pats seems about right, since the Giants' defense, while improving, isn't the equal of Baltimore's. That said, I'd still probably take the points, since I think that New England's defense is highly suspect and will be hard pressed to duplicate indoors what the 49ers did yesterday in the mud and rain.
   24. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4043058)
The play clock is reset either to 40 seconds from that point, or 25 seconds from the point the ball is ready for play. I don't recall the play, but given the field conditions and the usual scrum after a run, it wouldn't surprise me if it took more than 15 seconds from the whistle to the ball being ready.


I thought it was only 25 seconds after a dead ball? (I think it used to be that rule in college, 25 seconds after the ball was spotted, which could sometimes take forever) but I am pretty sure that after a play like that (it was a rushing play for a short loss) that the 40 second clock pretty much starts running right after the whistle. (Which sometimes is an issue after a really long play down the field, many times the offense ends up calling a TO because they don't get everyone down in time).

I definitely could be wrong, but that seemed to be a mistake.
   25. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4043061)
The Giants linebackers (mostly Blackburn) are incredibly slow in coverage. Maybe Jaquan Williams can fill in, but they're going to have loads of problems staying with Hernandez and Gronkowski.
   26. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4043067)
The Patriots lost to the Giants 20-24 earlier this season, in a game in which they had 4 turnovers to the Giants' 2. That sounds about right -- if turnover margin is even, the Patriots should have a slight edge.
   27. shoewizard Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4043079)
I don't think people here appreciate how hard it is to go on the road and beat a great defensive team on the road.

Manning and his receivers took an absolute beating yesterday. But they kept the chains moving and didn't turn it over.

Yes, they got a couple of breaks with the kick returner making a couple of mistakes. But thats football. The Giants special teams didn't turn the ball over today. Special teams matter. They count. They are roughly as important in football as bullpens are in baseball.

And of course their defense played really well, with the exception of two pass plays, which accounted for 1/3 of the 49'ers yards on the day. The Giants ran 90 plays to SFO's 57, and won the time of posession 39:36 to 28:18. Alex Smith completed THREE passes to his wide receivers. THREE.

The Giants outplayed the 49'ers yesterday in a lot of ways. The game should not have been as close as it was. The Giants offensive gameplan was not good in spots. There were several 3rd & 1's they tried ill advised flat and sideline passes, instead of pounding it up the middle or going over the middle with a quick slant. Poor play calling stalled more than just a couple of drives.

Bottom line: The Giants defense woke up/got healthy 5 weeks ago, and if they get any kind of offensive line play, they can beat any team on any day.



   28. zack Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4043086)
But you're definitely right about Green Bay. They reminded me (going back a ways now) of some of the Norm Van Brocklin LA Rams teams of the 50's, capable of scoring 50 points a game but equally capable of giving up 40. I know that defense isn't supposed to be the critical factor any more, but AFAIWC they were always looking like an accident waiting to happen.


This year's Packers are basically a video game football team. Elite passing offense, defense that gives up a million yards but creates turnovers like crazy, little running game.
   29. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4043091)
shoe

C'mon, that's a reflection of the motley crew of WRs in San Fran, not the greatness of the Giants secondary

I was at the game yesterday watching it with a long-time friend.

We had a GREAT view. The giants were DARING the 49ers to pass deep all day. It was THERE all day. And don't tell me that the pass rush hindered them throwing deep. The Giants pass rush was not a force until about 5 minutes left in the game and then in overtime when for whatever reason those guys went ape sh*t.

Harbaugh thought he could in the game 14-10. And if not for his punt returner he might have pulled it off.

Still, he Shottenheimered that game. Plain and simple.

You HAVE to keep trying. Godd*mmit boys, remember in life, you HAVE GOT TO KEEP TRYING.

Otherwise, some son of a b*tch is going to get up and knock you on your *ss.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4043092)
One thing that has amazed me is the irrational confidence of Giants fans. Yes, they won in 2007, with a different team, against a different, superior team. So what? The Patriots won against a superior Rams team in 2001. That doesn't make them world-beaters. Not that Giants fans should be quaking in their shoes. It's one thing to like your chances. It's another to predict a complete thrashing of what, after all, has been a pretty good Patriots team.

Who's predicting a trashing?

I think what people are saying is that Manning will chew up the Pats D. That doesn't mean that Brady won't do the same thing to the Giants mediocre secondary.

I predict a shoot-out, but I think the Giants will harass Brady more than the Pats will get to Manning.

I'll say, Giants 38, Pats 31.
   31. stanmvp48 Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4043094)
The Packers were outgained this year I am fairly certain. I also noticed the point about the 40 second clock brought up by Conor. They also misspotted the ball by at least a foot after they overturned Brady's TD. Could easily have mattered.
   32. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4043097)
The Giants outplayed the 49'ers yesterday in a lot of ways. The game should not have been as close as it was. The Giants offensive gameplan was not good in spots. There were several 3rd & 1's they tried ill advised flat and sideline passes, instead of pounding it up the middle or going over the middle with a quick slant. Poor play calling stalled more than just a couple of drives.


The only thing I will say about that is as a Giant fan, I had no faith in their ability to pick up a third and 1 on the ground.
   33. McCoy Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4043098)
Pats 27-23
   34. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4043100)
Alex Smith completed THREE passes to his wide receivers. THREE.


I think it was one pass, for three yards.
   35. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4043103)
The Packers issues were not complex.

Ted Thompson didn't resign cullen Jenkins because Ted believes in letting a guy go a year early versus a year late. Jenkins was (and is) very good at applying a pass rush, even from the 3-4. And on passing downs he can move to tackle. None, and let me STRESS, NONE of Jenkins replacements were anything other than mere roster filler. Pedestrian tackles fended off this sorry bunch without stress or strain.

Nick Collins, Pro Bowl safety, got hurt. It became VERY clear that Collins speed/intelligence made up for the deficiences of others. He was Capers last line of defense. Peprah was a disaster in coverage and a candy*ss tackling. Peprah played fine as a fill-in last year at the other safety position because he had Nick right alonside.

Woodson continues to lose speed making him a glaring liability in any type of coverage beyond 10 yards from the LOS. Charles is REALLY smart, a ferocious hitter and throws himself into plays with abandon. But he cannot run any more.

AJ Hawk was solid to good in his contract year (2010). In 2011 he was an embarrassment. It is very likely he will be cut. I have rarely witnessed an non-injured player crater in performance as I did with Hawk.

Those were the main items. I could continue but when you have four key players go from great to absent or stinko that matters
   36. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4043104)

Who's predicting a trashing?


Just about everyone I've seen opine on the matter online.

If Manning gets 600 yards, presumably that's a thrashing.

   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4043110)
The only thing I will say about that is as a Giant fan, I had no faith in their ability to pick up a third and 1 on the ground.

They should just freaking throw the ball.

They should probably just break out the run and shoot at this point. See if Bradshaw can be a poor man's Barry Sanders with the field spread out.
   38. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4043112)
There were mutiple passes yesterday by both quarterbacks that could have been intercepted. The Giants were fortunate on fumble recoveries and the silly call around the fumble of their fb that was ruled not to have happened.

The 2007 team won things straight up. This version is getting great play here and there but is getting a HUGE boost from random chance favoring them.

It may continue. But if turns against them do not be surprised if NE blows them out as chance blows up in their face.
   39. Guapo Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4043115)
For the record, I'm not a Giants fan. I dislike both teams, more or less equally.

Snapper's 30 pretty much is where I am as well.

I just can't imagine giving the Giants points given what we've seen out of the two teams in the last six weeks.
   40. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4043118)
By the way Giants fans, your brethren who travelled to the game did not distinguish themselves. San Fran folks are very accomodating. I was treated in good natured fashion back in Jan 1998 when the Packers beat the 49ers in a championship game.

But the Giants fans yesterday were routinely rude, loud, smug and beyond poor sports in victory. To the credit of the fan base there were many of them. But except for the two young woman trying to shush their loud male companions the rest were what folks think of NY. And NY is not actually many of those things.

But you would think so based on yesterday. Goodness, just a horrible display.
   41. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4043122)
By the way Giants fans, your brethren who travelled to the game did not distinguish themselves.


Why were there loud chants for Victor Cruz at the game? Was it just Giants fans or was everyone joining in?
   42. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4043130)
JJ

If that is what was heard on TV then FOX was manipulating the sound for some purpose. Because the stadium was NUTS, especially in the second half. They booed every Giants showed on the big screen during the National Anthem for heaven's sake.

If the impression was given that SF fans were blase or not in the game then FOX just committed the big lie.
   43. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4043132)
The only thing I will say about that is as a Giant fan, I had no faith in their ability to pick up a third and 1 on the ground.


Ha! My friend told me the Giants' third and 1 is really their fourth and 2.

I know indooor/turf favors higher scoring, fast wide receivers, good passing attacks, but does it also favor pass rush? I thought the Giants' pass rush was pretty weak yesterday and that's basically the only thing that's going to stop Brady and his band of misfits.
   44. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4043138)
Post 43

The Niners offensive line was doing pretty good until about 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter and all of overtime. Then something happened and each of their guys took turns manhandling the O-line and send Smith running for cover.

I suspect it's because they knew (or strongly believed) that the Niners would stop running the ball.

And d*mned if that wasn't the case.
   45. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4043140)
There were mutiple passes yesterday by both quarterbacks that could have been intercepted. The Giants were fortunate on fumble recoveries and the silly call around the fumble of their fb that was ruled not to have happened.

The 2007 team won things straight up. This version is getting great play here and there but is getting a HUGE boost from random chance favoring them.


I agree with that for yesterday, did you mean only yesterday or throughout the playoffs? Because the Packers scored both TD off very questionable calls last week.

But the 2007 team won their last 3 games by a field goal each time. David Tyree caught a pass off his helmet, there was the fumble that Bradshaw somehow was at least credited with recovering in the first half of the super bowl. Patrick Crayton dropped a pass int he divisional round that could have sealed things. So I'm not sure the 07 team won things any more straight up than this years team has, so far.

I think, in general, in any close games that are going to be plays like that that could've gone either way. But there is no question the Giants were extremely fortunate with the special teams play. (Also worth pointing out that while the Giants have recovered a ton of fumbles, I don't think they have fumbled this entire playoffs, which is a skill. (The box credits Eli with a fumble yesterday, I don't remember that right now).

Edit: Agree with Harveys on the pass rush; thought it wasn't there for much of the game but seemed to come on as the game went along. May be related to the Niners going a little more pass happy?
   46. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4043144)
I suspect it's because they knew (or strongly believed) that the Niners would stop running the ball.


I thought the Niners' decision to stop trying to run the ball on their final few possessions in regulation was ridiculous, both from ball movement and clock management standpoints.

The box credits Eli with a fumble yesterday, I don't remember that right now.


He fumbled very early on a sack just before midfield. McKenzie (I think that was his name) fell on it).
   47. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4043149)
Because the Packers scored both TD off very questionable calls last week.

They scored both of their TDs on absolutely indefensible calls.

That game showed why replay is absolutely pointless.
   48. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4043152)
But there is no question the Giants were extremely fortunate with the special teams play.

Why is special teams considered more "luck" than other parts of the game?

Having a returner who can hold on to the damn ball, is just as much skill based as having a QB who throws INTs.
   49. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4043158)
snapper

As is understand in the analytical community, fumble recovery is pure random chance. When I reference the Giants good fortune it is not a referendum on any particular player or players skill set

When the ball hits the ground who recovers it is completely random. That the Giants continue to recover THEIR fumbles while recovering all but ONE of their opponents in the playoffs is a run of good fortune beyond imagining.
   50. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4043159)
Remember the Eli fumble now; yeah they lost like 10 yards on it. McKenzie did fall on it.
   51. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4043161)
If that is what was heard on TV then FOX was manipulating the sound for some purpose. Because the stadium was NUTS, especially in the second half. They booed every Giants showed on the big screen during the National Anthem for heaven's sake


In the first half, every time Cruz caught a ball, he was greeted with loud chanting. On TV, it sounded just like it does at MetLife.
   52. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4043165)
By the way, I will likely seem belligerent in tone regarding the Giants. I will work to modify my temper but yesterday's display offended me. And it is d*mn hard to offend ME.

Giants fans were an embarrassment yesterday. If the NY team lost 66-0 in the Super Bowl it would only matter to me if I could have webcams observing the reaction of the nitwits who mocked, ridiculed and heaped scorn on 49er fans in their moment of despair

Just horrendous
   53. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4043169)
JJ

Then FOX must have set up a microphone near a pocket of Giants fans.

Certainly toward the end of the first half 49er fans were BOOING out of exasperation that nobody seemed to cover the Giants best receiver. Rogers was getting eaten alive in the first half by Cruz

This is why watchers should be suspicious of FOX. The notion that Candlestick was anything but LOUD in favor of the 49ers is just flat out wrong. It's a complete misrepresentation of the reality.

San Fran folks were INSANE yesterday until the last fumble. Then they wept.
   54. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4043171)
They scored both of their TDs on absolutely indefensible calls.


Not really. They scored both of their TDs following indefensible calls. It's not really the same thing.

(While you can say they would most definitely not have scored a TD on the possession following the botched fumble call, you can't say the same about the crappy roughing the passer call - unlikely, but not out of the question). But in either case, the Packers had to move the ball from that point.

Why is special teams considered more "luck" than other parts of the game?


I don't know that special teams is considered more luck than other parts of the game, but that first TO had almost nothing to do with Giant skill and everything to do with Niner boneheadedness. The second was a little more evenly split, but again the Giants benefited from stupidity on the part of the other guy - which certainly has a luck component to it.




   55. The DA Baracus Hypothesis Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4043172)
Having a returner who can hold on to the damn ball, is just as much skill based as having a QB who throws INTs.


The 49ers have one. Fortunately for the Giants, he was hurt. I'd say that's luck.
   56. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4043173)
Not really. They scored both of their TDs following indefensible calls. It's not really the same thing.

(While you can say they would most definitely not have scored a TD on the possession following the botched fumble call, you can't say the same about the crappy roughing the passer call - unlikely, but not out of the question). But in either case, the Packers had to move the ball from that point.


I believe the "roughing" the passer was 3rd down. They would not have scored on that drive.
   57. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4043174)
Personally, I thought and continue to think it's rather bizarre that Giants fans continue to obsess over ref calls in a game they won by a healthy margin.

Instead of relishing the victory the airwaves continue to carry the constant bleating over calls that in the end had no bearing on the outcome.

This behavior baffles me.

   58. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4043175)
(While you can say they would most definitely not have scored a TD on the possession following the botched fumble call, you can't say the same about the crappy roughing the passer call - unlikely, but not out of the question). But in either case, the Packers had to move the ball from that point.


The roughing the passer was on a third down, so they would've punted. Maybe they would've gotten the ball back and scored.

   59. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4043176)
See, the roughing call being called indefensible flies in the face of the facts. The NFL has put quarterbacks in plastic wrap all season. It was a ticky tack call but alas, in line with too many such calls in the NFL

Sure, complain about the non-fumble.

But the roughing call? C'mon. That's the NFL of today. Again, to insist otherwise is to imagine a game that no longer exists.
   60. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4043178)
I don't know that special teams is considered more luck than other parts of the game, but that first TO had almost nothing to do with Giant skill and everything to do with Niner boneheadedness. The second was a little more evenly split, but again the Giants benefited from stupidity on the part of the other guy - which certainly has a luck component to it.

Sure, it wasn't Giants skill, it was lack of 49er skill.
   61. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4043181)
snapper

You do understand that the returner playing yesterday would likely not have been on the ROSTER if not for injuries and other factors? This guy wasn't a backup. He was approximately the fifth choice.
   62. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4043183)
I think part of the reason for harping on the calls int hat game, even though they won fairly easily, is because I've read comments on here and other places trying to discredit that Giants win, saying the Packers didn't show up and stuff like that. The Giants beat a 15-1 team by 17 points in their own stadium, and even if you just want to focus on the fumble, they should've won by 24 points, holding the highest scoring offense in the league to 13 points.

That's true about Williams, and the Giants lost games earlier in the year where they were down to their 5th or 6th CB. Injuries happen, and I think on the whole, the Niners were pretty healthy this year. The Giants played all year without their best CB.
   63. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4043185)

But the roughing call? C'mon. That's the NFL of today. Again, to insist otherwise is to imagine a game that no longer exists.


Plenty of analysts said the call stunk.

Rodgers was still in the act of throwing when he was hit, and it wasn't even a hard hit.
   64. Kurt Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4043187)
I don't know that special teams is considered more luck than other parts of the game, but that first TO had almost nothing to do with Giant skill and everything to do with Niner boneheadedness.

I know one thing that helps your "fumble recovery luck", is if your guy makes an attempt to recover the ball and the other team's guy doesn't.
   65. The DA Baracus Hypothesis Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4043189)
Sure, it wasn't Giants skill, it was lack of 49er skill.


Agreed. When things that are out of your control go your way, that's luck.
   66. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4043190)
Conor

You do realize that the Giants are going to the Super Bowl, correct?

That the game referenced is now in the past.

Good grief.
   67. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:43 PM (#4043191)
I don't mind either bad call in isolation, but with all the money on the Giants and a ref who famously botched a Super Bowl a few years ago, the NFL can't be making those calls. The appearance of impropriety is too much, especially when one of them is reviewed under the hood and still upheld.

It would be simpler to just fire Bill Leavy.
   68. Fancy Pants is braggadocious about his Handle Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4043192)
Why is special teams considered more "luck" than other parts of the game?

Having a returner who can hold on to the damn ball, is just as much skill based as having a QB who throws INTs.

Hitting a baseball s also a skill. Going 0/4 or 4/4 is mostly luck. Special teams play over a 1 game sample is a ridiculously SSS. And the niners are generally credited with having one of, if not the, best special teams unit in the game.
   69. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4043193)
You do understand that the returner playing yesterday would likely not have been on the ROSTER if not for injuries and other factors? This guy wasn't a backup. He was approximately the fifth choice.

Sure, but that's football. Injuries are a massive part of the game.

That's not luck, that's who the team is on that given day. It's no more luck than the Giants O-line being beat up all year. Or Baas getting hurt in the game, and the middle of the Giants protection sucking in the 2nd half.

Recovering fumbles is luck, to a great extent, but also hustle. But fumbling isn't luck.
   70. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4043195)
Kurt

there is no need for quotes. You can find the research either at FootballOutsiders or more formal studies done by various statistical researchers at universities. It has become rather standard as an example in a lot of stats courses of something that is shown to be purely random and can be proven to be such. And students are typically familiar with football at some level.

   71. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4043197)
I think Kurt was just referring to the first fumble, Devin Thomas was the only one even trying to recover it.

The second recovery was a great stroke of luck, ball bounced right to Thomas.
   72. Kurt Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4043198)
The roughing the passer was on a third down, so they would've punted. Maybe they would've gotten the ball back and scored.

They were down by 17 with seven minites to go; they wouldn't have punted.

Rodgers was still in the act of throwing when he was hit, and it wasn't even a hard hit.

That's the thing that galls me about the call, beyond the fact that they called a blow to the head when he wasn't near the head. Osi *clearly* pulled up; by calling that penalty they're telling players that they'll get fifteen yards if they even bump into the quarterback. So, you might as well drive him into the ground and get your money's worth.
   73. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4043200)
Hitting a baseball s also a skill. Going 0/4 or 4/4 is mostly luck. Special teams play over a 1 game sample is a ridiculously SSS. And the niners are generally credited with having one, if not the, best special teams unit in the game.

Sure, and a QB getting picked once or three times in a game is often luck.

The 49ers special teams played poorly, the Giants specials played well, and that's why the Giants one. That doesn't mean that the 49ers specials aren't good, it's just that they didn't play well yesterday.
   74. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4043204)

I believe the "roughing" the passer was 3rd down. They would not have scored on that drive.


At that point in the game, they wouldn't have punted.

   75. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4043207)
I find it curious that nobody is griping about the forward progress call/no fumble call late in the game. In real time that was a fumble. That was a QUICK whistle.

   76. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4043209)
Maybe they wouldn't have punted, but they were then going to be sitting on a 4th and 10 from their own 24, you never know, but I feel pretty safe saying they wouldn't have scored.

I think Bradshaw was not going forward, but it seemed close. Also, I think the official on the sideline called him down, but also threw his beanbag, signifying a fumble. ANyone else see that?
   77. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4043210)
They were down by 17 with seven minites to go; they wouldn't have punted.

OK, 4th and 10 on their own 30. That's what a 15-20% chance of conversion?

That's the thing that galls me about the call, beyond the fact that they called a blow to the head when he wasn't near the head. Osi *clearly* pulled up; by calling that penalty they're telling players that they'll get fifteen yards if they even bump into the quarterback. So, you might as well drive him into the ground and get your money's worth.

Yup. The call was factually incorrect.

That's what I'd take out of it. Might as well try to knock the guy out of the game.

If they want to call that stuff, they need a "running into the passer" penalty like they have for punters. 5 yards, and no auto first down.
   78. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4043215)
I find it curious that nobody is griping about the forward progress call/no fumble call late in the game. In real time that was a fumble. That was a QUICK whistle.

I hate the forward progress rule (if you try keep going and lose yards, the yards should be lost), but if that's the rule, you have to interpet it that way.

If the guy can't lose yards, how can he lose the ball? They play effectively has to end as some as forward momentum ends.
   79. Kurt Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4043216)
there is no need for quotes. You can find the research either at FootballOutsiders or more formal studies done by various statistical researchers at universities. It has become rather standard as an example in a lot of stats courses of something that is shown to be purely random and can be proven to be such. And students are typically familiar with football at some level.

I don't doubt it when applied to hundreds of fumbles over the course of a season; it seems a bit more problematic when applied to a single fumble. You can't half-recover a fumble, you're either getting all or none of it. On that speciic play, Thomas went after the ball and Williams mad no effort whatsoever. Given the respective levels of effort, if that fummble happens 10,000 times the Giants are going to recover it 10,000 times.
   80. The DA Baracus Hypothesis Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4043217)
The 49ers special teams played poorly, the Giants specials played well, and that's why the Giants one.


The 49ers ST are the easy goat, but the Niners lost because Alex Smith played like ####. The Giants, aside from their pass rush, are not a good defense and Smith couldn't do anything against them.
   81. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4043218)
Conor

He DID throw the beanbag. What you did NOT see was Hochuli point to another ref to pick it up and then claim forward progress had been called.

Was this even discussed on TV?

49er fans were screaming conspiracy while the Giants fans at first were relieved and then smug.

Everyone in our area, both sets of fans, were sure it was a fumble and in turn the ballgame.
   82. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4043220)
Maybe they wouldn't have punted, but they were then going to be sitting on a 4th and 10 from their own 24, you never know, but I feel pretty safe saying they wouldn't have scored.


Which is why I said "unlikely, but not out of the question."

The point is, the roughing the passer call didn't give them a touchdown, nor was it exactly analagous to the fumble, when possession would have gone to the Giants.
   83. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4043222)
I think Bradshaw was not going forward, but it seemed close. Also, I think the official on the sideline called him down, but also threw his beanbag, signifying a fumble. ANyone else see that?


I thought the whistle clearly blew, and appropriately so (even as someone who thinks forward progress is often miscalled - for example, Brees' first down last week).

   84. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4043223)
snapper

But if he was stopped he had been stopped and fumbled almost simultaneously. Again, in real time, and I was RIGHT THERE, he fumbled.

   85. bunyon Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4043227)
You do understand that the returner playing yesterday would likely not have been on the ROSTER if not for injuries and other factors? This guy wasn't a backup. He was approximately the fifth choice.

It makes me wonder if, rather than relying on a way-down-the-list returner, a team shouldn't just not return. Let them punt and take the ball whereever it ends up. Yeah, you give some field position, but you don't fumble the ball deep in your own territory.

Basically, the 49ers put the ball in the hands of the 58th best player on the team in a crucial situation. Just let it bounce.

Also, given the state of kickoffs, it would be easy to take a knee on all those, too.
   86. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4043228)
This was not the Bears having three guys hold up a runner with another guy clawing the ball out after 2 minutes of trying.

This was a guy getting hurled back and coughing up the ball at the same time.
   87. villageidiom Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4043230)
Yes, they got a couple of breaks with the kick returner making a couple of mistakes. But thats football. The Giants special teams didn't turn the ball over today. Special teams matter. They count. They are roughly as important in football as bullpens are in baseball.
...
The game should not have been as close as it was. The Giants offensive gameplan was not good in spots. There were several 3rd & 1's they tried ill advised flat and sideline passes, instead of pounding it up the middle or going over the middle with a quick slant. Poor play calling stalled more than just a couple of drives.
Gameplan and play calling matter. They count. They are more important in football than special teams are in football.

The game should have been precisely as close as it was. Your bias is showing.

- - - - -

As for the Super Bowl, I guess we get two weeks of the media hyping a Boston/NY repeat matchup, with both teams claiming that they're the underdog and that nobody respects them (NE for their defense, NYG for their 9-7 record). The backlash should be in full force by Wednesday.
   88. Kurt Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4043232)
But if he was stopped he had been stopped and fumbled almost simultaneously. Again, in real time, and I was RIGHT THERE, he fumbled.

I was right there too, via the magic of TV, and the ball was stripped out after he had been pushed back a full yard (and presumably after the whistle blew, I couldn't hear the whistle).
   89. Conor Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4043233)
They basically just said they called forward progress, which can't be reviewed. I don't think the beanbag was mentioned. (I think I was dry heaving at that moment, I could've missed it)

I'd need to see the play again, I think he was not going forward anymore, but who knows with those calls.
   90. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4043234)
closeup

Your recommendation was what EVERY 49er fan was screaming at Harbaugh to do. PUt in someone like Carlos Rogers with orders to fair catch the ball.

But Harbaugh is a players coach, meaning he always sticks with his guys, and yesterday everyoen got to see the downside of the Chuck Tanner school of management. When you stick with a guy overmatched by the role eventually it will bite you in the *ss.
   91. LionoftheSenate (is the grammer police!) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4043236)
For those who follow the NFL has this been a "weak" year in the NFL? I don't follow it closely but I don't see either the Giants or Pats as an especially impressive team and even the 15-1 Packers had a defense that allowed teams to move pretty much at will. Is this just a function of the rule changes opening up the game or is there really a lack of well-rounded teams this year?


Yea the NFL most certainly has created a game right now that is as unbalanced as ever. Run and pass is supposed to be a yin-yang forcing the defense to respond. The rules have become laughably biased towards passing....im not certain this is the cause but top teams are very deficient.

Someone above questioned the idea of a 9-7 team making the playoffs. Well in case you haven't noticed the NFL invites a bunch of teams to the playoffs, the regular season is barely a factor. Why do you think fantasy football ends on week 16 not 17? Still, the NFL omitted Tennessee (9-7) despite a head to head win over Denver and a better record (9-7 vs 8-8) the NFL system spit out Denver...incredibly gave them a home game too vs a 12 win team. The NFL has proven to be careless in how they hand out the 4-6 seeds. Now that 4-6 seeds are winning championships regularly, they should rethink their flawed system.
   92. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4043237)
I may have played too many video games, but if I were the Ravens, I would have gone for the first down, called timeout, tried one pass to the end zone, then kicked the field goal.
   93. Kurt Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4043238)

It makes me wonder if, rather than relying on a way-down-the-list returner, a team shouldn't just not return. Let them punt and take the ball whereever it ends up. Yeah, you give some field position, but you don't fumble the ball deep in your own territory.

Basically, the 49ers put the ball in the hands of the 58th best player on the team in a crucial situation. Just let it bounce.

Also, given the state of kickoffs, it would be easy to take a knee on all those, too.


"Some" field position? You're giving up 10 yards every time; 20-25 if the punter sees nobody back there and kicks line drives. You have to field the punts.
   94. bunyon Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4043240)
You can drop a fair catch. It just seems, from the gut, that having the ball on your own 2 is less dangerous than them having it on your 40.
   95. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4043241)
Kurt

There is a difference between the wall of guys carrying a guy back and a guy getting tackled and hurled back.

Look, you got the call.

But it could have been ruled otherwise and EVERY GIANTS FAN AROUND US thought it was a fumble.

   96. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4043245)
Agreed that the punts have to be CAUGHT

but it is not mandatory that someone have to RUN.

The Packers went almost a full season a few years back with Charles Woodson regularly fair catching.

It created field position issues but at least there were no awful turnovers
   97. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4043248)
But it could have been ruled otherwise and EVERY GIANTS FAN AROUND US thought it was a fumble.


I was rooting hard for the Niners. Thought it was a fumble on the live view.

But looking at it again, had the call gone against the Giants it would have been ridiculous. He was clearly being pushed backward when he lost control. Moreover, he had no hope of going forward in the future.

   98. The DA Baracus Hypothesis Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4043249)
He fumbled after he started going backwards. See for yourself at the 8:29 mark.

That said, I agree that it was a quick whistle.
   99. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4043254)
Moving in a different direction, did Harbaugh provide any explanation as to why with that sorry collection of receivers the decision was made to go pass happy at the end?

I just cannot fathom how you don't make Frank Gore the center of the offense. He was running well AND catching well yesterday.
   100. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4043256)
I don't get why they didn't run that pitch play more often, or other counters or tosses. Twice it absolutely gashed the Giants.
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