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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

SweetSpot TV: All-Underrated team

Like Darby Crash says, “See you all at Aoki-Dog!”

There is no scientific way to pick an all-underrated team. Well, I suppose there is some formula we could come up, but that would be about as much fun as watching Brendan Ryan take batting practice.

RF—Norichika Aoki, Brewers
He came over from Japan last year and quietly hit .288/.355/433, lashed out 51 extra-base his, stole 30 bases and played a very good right field. He also made appearances as Bernie Brewer and at least four times raced as the Italian sausage.

Urkel's Boner Posted: April 23, 2013 at 12:35 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 23, 2013 at 01:25 PM (#4423369)
How did Bobby Abreu not make this list?

If that Aoki story is at all true, he is my new favorite player.
   2. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: April 23, 2013 at 01:31 PM (#4423378)
Pretty good selection, actually. As a Mariners fan, I'm surprised and pleased that Kyle Seager and Hisashi Iwakuma both made the list, especially Iwakuma.
   3. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: April 23, 2013 at 01:32 PM (#4423380)
If that Aoki story is at all true, he is my new favorite player.
I read it as a joke. If it's true -- Harveys to the white courtesy phone, please -- then he immmediately becomes the Greatest Player Currently In The Game.
   4. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 23, 2013 at 01:53 PM (#4423418)
Is Ben Zobrist underrated?
   5. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: April 23, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4423424)
Is Ben Zobrist underrated?
Not anymore, not really.
   6. BDC Posted: April 23, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4423498)
Joe Rudi
   7. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: April 23, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4423513)
I'll echo Esoteric, that's a pretty good list. I cringe every time I see one of these stories because "underrated" is such a poorly defined term. In this case I think it's pretty solidly executed.
   8. bigglou115 Posted: April 23, 2013 at 02:49 PM (#4423518)
Anybody remember that terrible Jason Stark book from about a decade ago? "The Stark Truth" I think? He tried to pick the 5 most overrated and underrated at each position of all time. He got some props for Lou Brock, but immediately lost all credibility when he called Jeter one of the most underrated SS of all time.
   9. ASmitty Posted: April 23, 2013 at 02:53 PM (#4423524)
If that Aoki story is at all true, he is my new favorite player.


I cannot speak to Aoki, but I know that Hideo Nomo ran in the sausage race at least once. So there is precedent.
   10. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:01 PM (#4423538)
Is Andrelton Simmons really all that great with the glove? His numbers on fangraphs say that he's basically Ozzie Smith in his prime. Obviously, those numbers will regress but does he look that good to the naked eye?
   11. Dale Sams Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:02 PM (#4423541)
Jed Lowrie. So underrated, that he can't make an underrated list.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:03 PM (#4423542)

I'll echo Esoteric, that's a pretty good list. I cringe every time I see one of these stories because "underrated" is such a poorly defined term. In this case I think it's pretty solidly executed.


In past years, it has meant "look at pretty good players that Red Sox and Yankees fans don't know about" or "good players that don't hit a ton of home runs." So yes, I agree this is actually a pretty good list.
   13. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:05 PM (#4423545)
Jed Lowrie. So underrated, that he can't make an underrated list.

He'd make the underrated list if he didn't spend so much time on the disabled list.
   14. bigglou115 Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:05 PM (#4423547)
Is Andrelton Simmons really all that great with the glove? His numbers on fangraphs say that he's basically Ozzie Smith in his prime. Obviously, those numbers will regress but does he look that good to the naked eye?


I will say this for Simmons, every single day I see him do something that I didn't think he could do. He may not always get an out, but be it through range or body control, or something random like transferring the ball from his glove to his throwing hand behind his back, he always comes up with something that makes you go "wow."
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:10 PM (#4423555)

Anybody remember that terrible Jason Stark book from about a decade ago? "The Stark Truth" I think? He tried to pick the 5 most overrated and underrated at each position of all time. He got some props for Lou Brock, but immediately lost all credibility when he called Jeter one of the most underrated SS of all time.


Wow, I had completely forgotten that.

According to an Amazon review, here's his all-overrated team:

Nolan Ryan (RHP), Sandy Koufax (LHP), Lee Smith (Reliever), Ron Blomberg (DH), Benito Santiago (C), Steve Garvey (1B), Steve Sax (2B), Graig Nettles (3B), Phil Rizzuto (SS), Lou Brock (LF), Andruw Jones (CF), and Dave Winfield (RF).


Ron Blomberg is overrated? Benito Santiago is overrated?

His most underrated 2B is Craig Biggio and the most underrate SS is Barry Larkin (Jeter is #2).
   16. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:17 PM (#4423563)
In past years, it has meant "look at pretty good players that Red Sox and Yankees fans don't know about" or "good players that don't hit a ton of home runs."


This reminds me that over the off-season, there was a thing on ESPN where some fantasy expert picked his "Up and Coming Stars." The third baseman was Chase Headley. It would have been much more valuable if the guy had picked Headley as "up and coming" before he had led the league in RBIs and finished fifth in the MVP voting.
   17. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:18 PM (#4423568)
Jed Lowrie. So underrated, that he can't make an underrated list.


He was on the original list. Unfortunately he dropped the list on his foot and broke three bones and caught the black plague so he was removed.
   18. SoSH U at work Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:22 PM (#4423578)
the most underrate SS is Barry Larkin (Jeter is #2).


I hate underrated/overrated lists, since there's generally no universally understood rating of the individuals, but how on earth is Arky Vaughan not the most underrated SS of all-time? He didn't get elected to the HoF until 37 years after his retirement, after the Vets Committee had already given permanent honors to Tom Yawkey and Hack Wilson.

   19. bigglou115 Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:23 PM (#4423579)
His most underrated 2B is Craig Biggio and the most underrate SS is Barry Larkin (Jeter is #2).


Its also important to note when the book came out. For instance Andruw had just come off of his 50+ HR season. The argument entirely focused on his slipping defense. The book wasn't really fair to players who were active, because skill sets change year to year some guys are always going to be overrated or underrated for a year or two.
   20. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:32 PM (#4423592)
Benito Santiago is overrated?

He was, yes. Didn't draw walks, overrated defensively. Tools goof.
   21. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:35 PM (#4423596)
aoki has run in the sausage race
   22. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 23, 2013 at 03:44 PM (#4423606)

I hate underrated/overrated lists, since there's generally no universally understood rating of the individuals, but how on earth is Arky Vaughan not the most underrated SS of all-time?


Yea, its hard to say two first ballot HOFers are underrated. Arky Vaughn, Vern Stephens, Alan Trammell, Jim Fregosi, and Tony Fernandez make my top five.

EDIT: Larkin made second ballot.


He was, yes. Didn't draw walks, overrated defensively. Tools goof.


I didn't think people rated him that highly. There are a lot of catchers in the HOF that shouldn't be there (Schalk, Ferrell) so I'd say they're more overrated. I even think Carlton Fisk is probably a tad overrated. Great player, but some seem to treat him like an inner-ring guy when he's probably at the lower end of the Hall.
   23. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 23, 2013 at 04:11 PM (#4423637)
#17 is funny.

Just remember, he is not injury prone, he has just had a few freak injuries.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: April 23, 2013 at 06:25 PM (#4423797)
how on earth is Arky Vaughan not the most underrated SS of all-time?

Because the point of "over/under" rated lists is not to get readers to say "who is Arky Vaughan?" but to say "great pick" or "idiot pick". :-)

OK, I don't know how Blomberg got on there. Nobody rated him anything even in real time. He's the trivia question answer which makes him kinda famous but not over-rated. There aren't a lot of DHs to even rate, I guess the most over-rated would be among Baylor, Baines and McRae. Under-rated DH -- Downing springs to mind; Carty and Thornton too. (Now that I look, Thornton was still at 1B when he was doing most of his damage for the Indians.)

I don't know how Nettles makes an overrated list. There must be a better candidate than Sax for 2B.
   25. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 23, 2013 at 06:34 PM (#4423801)
He got some props for Lou Brock, but immediately lost all credibility when he called Jeter one of the most underrated SS of all time.


I can see the argument for Jeter being underrated, actually. The path to that conclusion is that statheads are so wrong about his defense being bad that they are underrating him.

Mind you I don't think that statheads are wrong about Jeter's defense - with the exception of GuyM, who is on an island of his own on this issue - but that would be the only way Jeter is underrated.

But Jeter is an odd hybrid type player. He's overrated because people think he's better than ARod, and they cite intangibles and championships for that. He's arguably underrated if his defense is better than believed. But even most "Jeter critics" have enormous respect for his career.
   26. cardsfanboy Posted: April 23, 2013 at 06:38 PM (#4423803)
I don't know how Nettles makes an overrated list. There must be a better candidate than Sax for 2B.


Jackie Robinson...he only played 1300 games, only had 61 War (Less than Willie Randolph) and yet his uniform is retired by the Dodgers. Rabbit Maranville might be a better legitimate one.

No clue how Nettles makes an overrated list, unless the list was compiled by a Red Sox fan growing up in the 70's.

As to Arky Vaughan... I usually would say that for underrated lists you have to avoid players 50-60 years in the past, but as pointed out, he didn't make the hof until the veteran's committee, and it's not like he was on the ballot in one of those weird years where they were still figuring out who to put in. The hof was nearly 20 years old by the time he got on the ballot.

   27. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: April 23, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4423811)
I'll echo Esoteric, that's a pretty good list. I cringe every time I see one of these stories because "underrated" is such a poorly defined term. In this case I think it's pretty solidly executed.

Same. Normally I hate these, but for this list I, for most of the players, my immediate reaction was "huh. he actually *is* underrated."
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: April 23, 2013 at 07:08 PM (#4423822)
Same. Normally I hate these, but for this list I, for most of the players, my immediate reaction was "huh. he actually *is* underrated."


All except Choo. He was the only name that stuck out there for me as "Huh...this guy is underrated?" maybe to the super casual fan, but I imagine most people who do know at least one or two players from every team, that he is not underrated.
   29. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 23, 2013 at 07:31 PM (#4423832)
I think a good place to start for the whole underrated/overrated thing is looking at fantasy ADP. For instance, Hanley Ramirez had a higher ADP than Ben Zobrist. And this is despite many drafts occurring after it was known he'd be out for two months. Granted, the best players in fantasy aren't always the best players in reality, but any universe where Hanley is chosen before Zobrist means people are seriously overrating Hanley or underrating Zobrist.
   30. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: April 23, 2013 at 08:20 PM (#4423892)
All except Choo. He was the only name that stuck out there for me as "Huh...this guy is underrated?" maybe to the super casual fan, but I imagine most people who do know at least one or two players from every team, that he is not underrated.

On a rare occasion when I was listening to a Philly sports radio station before 2011, the host took to task someone who suggested that Choo was better than Ryan Howard. Whether that host is a good proxy for the average fan, I don't know.
   31. bigglou115 Posted: April 23, 2013 at 08:33 PM (#4423906)
On a rare occasion when I was listening to a Philly sports radio station before 2011, the host took to task someone who suggested that Choo was better than Ryan Howard. Whether that host is a good proxy for the average fan, I don't know.


Having spent some time in Philly, I'm going to guess not.

Do you remember when this was? Keep in mind that Howard has been historically overrated during the bulk of his career, to the point where to a lot of Philly fans a 'realistic' assessment of his talent was "better than Fielder, not quite as good as Pujols." And this was the case 2 years ago. Even this past offseason there was a feeling that Howard, had he been healthy, could have gotten the Phillies into the playoffs.
   32. cardsfanboy Posted: April 23, 2013 at 08:36 PM (#4423908)
I think a good place to start for the whole underrated/overrated thing is looking at fantasy ADP. For instance, Hanley Ramirez had a higher ADP than Ben Zobrist. And this is despite many drafts occurring after it was known he'd be out for two months. Granted, the best players in fantasy aren't always the best players in reality, but any universe where Hanley is chosen before Zobrist means people are seriously overrating Hanley or underrating Zobrist.


Problem is that fantasy players do not remotely correlate with quality of players. Taking Hanley over Zobrist is probably not that big of a mistake. Zobrist gives you positional flexibility, but any type of rebound from Hanley and you probably get average, steals, and homeruns ahead of Zobrist, and depending on the lineup spot rbi or runs. Zobrist brings absolutely nothing in fantasy terms over Hanley if Hanley has a rebound to his 2010 year.

On a rare occasion when I was listening to a Philly sports radio station before 2011, the host took to task someone who suggested that Choo was better than Ryan Howard. Whether that host is a good proxy for the average fan, I don't know.


Howard is the poster boy for overrated players.
   33. Walt Davis Posted: April 23, 2013 at 08:44 PM (#4423918)
I think a good place to start for the whole underrated/overrated thing is looking at fantasy ADP. For instance, Hanley Ramirez had a higher ADP than Ben Zobrist. And this is despite many drafts occurring after it was known he'd be out for two months. Granted, the best players in fantasy aren't always the best players in reality, but any universe where Hanley is chosen before Zobrist means people are seriously overrating Hanley or underrating Zobrist.

Well, maybe. Are there any fantasy leagues that score defense? Until recently, Zobrist would not be eligible for SS in most leagues. But Zobrist steals more bases than I realized although probably still a couple fewer than Hanley.

I have little doubt that Hanley's fantasy reputation is still largely based on the great fantasy player he was from 2006-10. But, even last year, he had 24 HR, 21 steals and 92 RBI as a SS which goes a long way in a trad fantasy league. Zobrist had 20 HR, 14 steals and 74 RBI but, I assume, is SS eligible this year. Heck Z only led in runs by 88-79. The issue here really is one of how well fantasy leagues mirror actual value and, prior to this year, positional adjustment. Zobrist is easily the better player these days but unless your league is rewarding doubles, triples, walks and defense, it's still not clear he's the better fantasy player.

The fantasy example I always encountered -- granted, in pretty unchallenging fantasy leagues -- was Sheffield. Even in the late 90s, early 00s when he was a 300/30/100 machine with 15 steals, 100 R and 100 RBI, you could count on him being available in the 7th-10th round just because everybody hated his guts. I did quite well in those years because I could pretty much always grab him with my 8th pick and Javy Vazquez with my 20th pick (assuming the league required a certain number of starts).

Somewhat hilariously given Cleveland's general crapitude, Choo has yet to make an AS game. And, yikes, his 2012 has to be one of the least impressive genuinely good seasons I've ever seen. He put up a 129 OPS+, 283/373/441 and even added 21 steals. But that amounted to just 16 HR, 88 runs, 67 RBI and that was in nearly 700 PA. I know it says more about the lineup around him but the guy posts near 400 OBPs but those 88 runs were a career high (and his high RBI is just 90). Those are the sort of numbers that will under-impress. Abreu is a pretty good comp but he would at least score 100 every year. Different eras I know but Abreu's 2006 is a very good match for Choo's 2012 and he managed 98 runs and over 100 RBI; 2007-8 are pretty good matches strictly on raw numbers and he scored a total of 223 runs that year (being on the Yankees helps obviously).

Choo is under-rated because the good things he's done have not actually resulted in that many runs on the board, presumably through no fault of his own.*

*He has positive baserunning value so there's no reason to think he's clogging the bases. He's not scoring because nobody's hitting behind him; the lack of RBI might be partly on him.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: April 23, 2013 at 08:51 PM (#4423930)
As a Choo counter-example, last year Castro hit 283/323/430 and added 13 CS and who knows how many other outs on the bases (-2 Rbase) for a crappy Cubs team that was 15th in OBP and 14th in SLG and even he managed 78 R and 78 RBI (and made his second AS team).
   35. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 23, 2013 at 11:05 PM (#4424095)
So both Nomo and Aoki have competed in the Sausage Race...how many more before the Brewers add a Kamaboko costume for cameos?
   36. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: April 23, 2013 at 11:49 PM (#4424121)
I wouldn't call Josh Willingham "underrated". I also wouldn't call Arky Vaughn "underrated". Underrated is Marvin Williams, Artie Wilson, Buster Clarkson, and Bill Monroe. Nobody in the Hall of Fame is "underrated" by definition, unless you think there should be some higher honor for people too good for it.
   37. SoSH U at work Posted: April 24, 2013 at 12:04 AM (#4424126)
I also wouldn't call Arky Vaughn "underrated". Underrated is Marvin Williams, Artie Wilson, Buster Clarkson, and Bill Monroe. Nobody in the Hall of Fame is "underrated" by definition, unless you think there should be some higher honor for people too good for it.


The primary group of people entrusted with weighing the Hall of Fame candidacy of Arky Vaughan, likely the second-greatest shortstop to play MLB through the 1970s, never gave him more than 30 percent of the vote. The secondary group of people charged with putting him in the Hall honored dozens of players and execs, many of them of highly dubious credentials, before getting around to Arky.

The fact that this group eventually got it right and elected him does not prevent him from being historically underrated. He may not be the most (since that's impossible to prove), but I'm confident in asserting he's a hell of a better choice for the distinction than either of Stark's 1 and 2 guys.

   38. AROM Posted: April 24, 2013 at 12:12 AM (#4424131)
Jackie Robinson...he only played 1300 games, only had 61 War (Less than Willie Randolph) and yet his uniform is retired by the Dodgers.


I'm not sure that Robinson isn't the best 2B to ever play the game, once you take into account that he didn't play MLB before age 28 for reasons beyond his control. Not just segregation either - had MLB allowed blacks to play earlier he's still out 1943-1945 fighting WW2.

From ages 28-37:

Morgan 63
Hornsby 63
Robinson 62
Gehringer 59
Collins 58

He's right there with the usual candidates for best 2B ever. Though Lajoie is ahead of them all with 69 during those ages.
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: April 24, 2013 at 01:57 PM (#4424621)
I'm not sure that Robinson isn't the best 2B to ever play the game, once you take into account that he didn't play MLB before age 28 for reasons beyond his control. Not just segregation either - had MLB allowed blacks to play earlier he's still out 1943-1945 fighting WW2.


I was just joking with my comment about Robinson. I agree with pretty much your point that he is probably one of the greatest ever at his position.
   40. alilisd Posted: April 24, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4424636)
I'm not sure that Robinson isn't the best 2B to ever play the game, once you take into account that he didn't play MLB before age 28 for reasons beyond his control.


But he was really only a 2B in 5 of his 10 seasons. Would it impact in any way?
   41. Zach Posted: April 24, 2013 at 02:57 PM (#4424733)
But he was really only a 2B in 5 of his 10 seasons. Would it impact in any way?

I don't see why it should. Moving to less demanding defensive positions as a player ages is par for the course.
   42. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: April 24, 2013 at 03:06 PM (#4424742)
Well, maybe. Are there any fantasy leagues that score defense?


My league added a (-1) for errors this year. So far Giancarlo Stanton has 4 of those against 3 RBI.
   43. alilisd Posted: April 25, 2013 at 06:56 PM (#4425917)
I don't see why it should. Moving to less demanding defensive positions as a player ages is par for the course.


Well, maybe because the other players have many more than 5 seasons as 2B and we're talking about best all time at the position. So rather than looking at 28 to 37, we look at 29 to 33, when he was actually a 2B, and we get:

Morgan 44.2
Hornsby 43.9
Robinson 40.7
Lajoie 37.1
Gehringer 35.6
Collins 28.4

Still very good and much better than some who are often mentioned in the discussion for best of all time, such as Collins.

But if we look at best 5 years as a 2B, pure peak, we get:

Morgan 47.7
Hornsby 53.5
Robinson 40.7
Lajoie 44.8
Gehringer 38.2
Collins 47.5

You can even add Utley at 39.5, not far behind Robinson, if you're only going to look at 5 years. Now he's not looking quite as competitive. I mean he certainly is one of the best, but it's quite a bit different than comparing him to 4 other guys who actually did play 2B the entire time from ages 28 to 37.
   44. Morty Causa Posted: April 25, 2013 at 09:12 PM (#4425995)
Jackie Robinson didn't even play 800 games at second base. That doesn't come anywhere near what the great second basemen in history played. And it isn't just because of the war and the fact that Blacks were excluded. He barely played half the games of his career at second. Moreover, current dWar represents something of a revisionism when it comes to his fielding. He was not considered a good fielding second baseman when he played.

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