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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Swisher may invoke $126M Werth deal in contract talks; how crazy is it?

What is Swisher Werth?

In terms of OPS, it’s darned close. Swisher’s career OPS is .826, Werth’s is .827 (but was a couple points higher before he got to Washington).

And now, here are the responses of four baseball executives to the idea of Swisher and $126 million.

1. Executive No. 1. Werth is better because he can play center field as well as right field and has a better postseason track record than Swisher (that’s one area where Werth has outdone Swisher).

2. Executive No. 2. It doesn’t matter how they match up because ‘the Werth deal is insane.’’ That exec said he could see Swisher getting $45 million for three years, or $60 million for four, which is well short of Werth and more along the lines of the usual projections.

3. Executive No. 3. Swisher’s case isn’t crazy considering the Werth contract. (That exec may well have studied the numbers.)

4. Executive No. 4. Laughter. That exec apparently felt the idea iof Swisher being a $126-million player was quite amusing.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 02:23 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bad contracts, jon heyman, nick swisher, yankees

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   1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4213977)
Swisher probably won't even get half.

   2. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4213985)
Combination of 3+2; not crazy considering the lunacy of the Werth deal, but ain't gonna happen.
   3. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4213993)
He can invoke it all he wants. He's not getting it. $60M wouldn't be bad for a West Virginia boy, anyway.
   4. Tripon Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4213999)
I might see some team go crazy and do 6 years/90 million.
   5. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4214000)
Werth got his contract coming off of a 296/388/532 (144 OPS+) year. Swisher is hitting 271/356/482 (123 OPS+). Werth had 4.3 WAR his last year in Philadelphia, Swisher is going to finish with ~4.5 WAR combined over his last *two* years in New York. Werth had a reputation as a good athlete who'd finally put it all together, and he had the narrative that his offensive development had been delayed because he'd played as a catcher in the minors and then spent a long time playing with un- or under-diagnosed injuries in Los Angeles. Swisher has no rising trend line. He had a bad year in Chicago, but otherwise has been roughly the same player since his second year in Oakland. The point is that with Werth you could imagine that his best year was the new normal, but Swisher doesn't have that argument at all.

Also, the Werth contract was nuts.
   6. GregD Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4214001)
may invoke is strong words! What's next "could ponder"? "might consider"?
   7. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4214006)
This Fangraphs article compared Swisher to Ethier. I think that's about right, or at least far closer than Werth. No idea what that means for his contract.
   8. RJ in TO Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4214030)
Should a team actually offer Swisher a deal comparable to the Werth one, that team should have a "Kick a GM in the nuts" day.
   9. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4214046)

Swisher may invoke $126M Werth deal in contract talks; how crazy is it?

My reaction was more like, "How stupid is that?" In arguing for big contract, player reminds owners of recent horrendous big contract. Next you're going to tell me that Zach Greinke is invoking the Barry Zito deal in his contract negotiations.
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4214077)
Swisher has been healthier than Werth lately, but Werth's deal was an admitted overpay by the Nationals, designed to put them on the map as a credible destination for free agents. Not sure any teams will feel a similar need in 2013.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4214084)

Swisher has been healthier than Werth lately, but Werth's deal was an admitted overpay by the Nationals, designed to put them on the map as a credible destination for free agents. Not sure any teams will feel a similar need in 2013.


I can see Toronto doing this. I also wonder if the Pirates feel its time to open up the checkbook finally, but probably not for $120 million.
   12. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4214099)
And certainly not for Nick f'n Swisher.

Can you imagine your favorite team being notoriously absent in the big ticket free agent market for DECADES and when they finally (finally!) decide to change that, they back up the money truck to a Nick Swisher's lawn?
   13. RJ in TO Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4214102)
I can see Toronto doing this.

Toronto ownership is cheap, and has repeatedly talked about the need for expenses to be in line with revenues. There is no way they would offer anything approaching that amount of money to Swisher.
   14. Good cripple hitter Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4214118)
I can see Toronto doing this. I also wonder if the Pirates feel its time to open up the checkbook finally, but probably not for $120 million.


Nah, Toronto's MO for free agents is there'll stories that Toronto interested in signing Swisher, then they'll be stories that Toronto is the favourite to sign Swisher, then some other team will sign him and there'll be stories that Toronto missed him by that much. Then there'll be quieter stories in non-Toronto markets that Toronto didn't offer him any contract, or they did but it was 2/10 or something like that.

(edit: beaten by Ryan, but there also really isn't that much of an obvious need for Swisher in Toronto.)
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4214123)

Can you imagine your favorite team being notoriously absent in the big ticket free agent market for DECADES and when they finally (finally!) decide to change that, they back up the money truck to a Nick Swisher's lawn?


Could be worse. Could be Gil Meche.
   16. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4214132)
I can see Toronto doing this. I also wonder if the Pirates feel its time to open up the checkbook finally, but probably not for $120 million.

I think Nick Swisher has future San Francisco Giant written all over him now that they probably won't re-sign Melky.
   17. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4214166)
As well as the Werth deal has gone, I'm surprised Swisher isn't asking for more. You know, inflation and all that.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4214171)
Nah, Toronto's MO for free agents is there'll stories that Toronto interested in signing Swisher, then they'll be stories that Toronto is the favourite to sign Swisher, then some other team will sign him and there'll be stories that Toronto missed him by that much. Then there'll be quieter stories in non-Toronto markets that Toronto didn't offer him any contract, or they did but it was 2/10 or something like that.

Wasn't this a fun offseason? It seemed like we just missed on every big free agent out there. Or at least that's what all the Rogers Communications outlets were saying.
   19. Dan Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4214178)
I think Nick Swisher has future San Francisco Giant written all over him now that they probably won't re-sign Melky.


This is a good call. I hadn't really thought of that but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this happen.

Interestingly, he'd actually be a terrific fit for LF for the Red Sox if they weren't already committed to Crawford.
   20. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:54 PM (#4214217)
I would really like the Reds to go after Swisher, because they need a) a leftfielder, b) a lefty batter (Swish is switch; serves same purpose), and c) someone to consistently slot between Votto and Bruce (Swish works, because his switch hitting makes the trio immune to a LOOGY). I doubt the Reds are willing to pay 3/45 or 4/60 though.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4214227)
It never hurts to ask.

I'm not excpecting it but, y'know, the Werth deal was insane and the Crawford deal was insane and the Carlos Lee deal was insane and the Soriano deal was whatever comes after insanity and Tex is making gazillions while not out-hitting Swisher and that old Konerko deal was insane and the Wells deal was double nutso and the Bay deal was none too bright and the Helton deal leaves one or two things to be desired. We shouldnt' be shocked if some team talks themselves into 6/$100 for Swisher (the Lee deal).

By the way, is my memory off or have the revamped defensive stats at b-r been a huge boon to Teixeira? I seem to recall him "not deserving" gold gloves and such. He's at +88 career, +15 this year -- granted they have him as just +2 in his first NYY GG year so maybe things are the same.
   22. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:14 PM (#4214241)
Man, that Carlos Lee deal was really nuts. At the end of this year he'll have been paid ~$130 million in his career, for 25-26 career WAR.
   23. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 21, 2012 at 07:40 PM (#4214294)
I would really like the Reds to go after Swisher, because they need a) a leftfielder, b) a lefty batter (Swish is switch; serves same purpose), and c) someone to consistently slot between Votto and Bruce (Swish works, because his switch hitting makes the trio immune to a LOOGY). I doubt the Reds are willing to pay 3/45 or 4/60 though.

After the Votto extension, who knows what the Reds are willing to pay. I agree that Swisher would make some sense, but they're much more likely to bring back Ryan Ludwick or decide to put Frazier there full-time.
   24. AJMcCringleberry Posted: August 21, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4214460)
Man, that Carlos Lee deal was really nuts. At the end of this year he'll have been paid ~$130 million in his career, for 25-26 career WAR.

You know it's a bad deal when you performed as well as they could've hoped and you were still massively overpaid.
   25. RollingWave Posted: August 22, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4214464)
By the standards of those deal Swisher getting it wouldn't be insane, but since those deals were insane...

Swisher have also been noted to being quite healthy though, he's never had any serious injury trouble... then again, Crawford WAS pretty healthy too
   26. Walt Davis Posted: August 22, 2012 at 03:14 AM (#4214495)
By the standards of those deal Swisher getting it wouldn't be insane, but since those deals were insane...

For sure ... I was arguing that we shouldn't be that surprised if it happens. If your neighbor howls at full moons, you shouldn't be surprised when he howls at the next full moon.

By the way, take Konerko out of the list. I thought that deal had been 5/75 but it was only 5/60 -- possibly a mild overpay based on his performance to that point but not insane (and it workd out amazingly well).
   27. Walt Davis Posted: August 22, 2012 at 03:18 AM (#4214496)
By the way, I like the use of the word "invoke" ... I think it is being used correctly here but it makes me think of something like this:

"How does 3/$45 sound?"
"We were thinking 7/$126."
"No, I don't think we can go past 3/$45 ... maybe another $15 M option with a $3 M buyout?"
"We can't go below 6/$105."
"Oh well, nice talking to you."
"Stop right there, I hereby invoke my rights under the Jayson Werth contract!"
"Damn, he's got us now."
   28. Swedish Chef Posted: August 22, 2012 at 03:32 AM (#4214498)
I was thinking about "invoke" in a magical sense. When the contract negotiations are stalled, Swisher pulls out a parchment, waves his hands and chants "By the power of Werth's Contract I command thee to do my bidding!".
   29. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: August 22, 2012 at 08:35 AM (#4214527)
Man, that Carlos Lee deal was really nuts. At the end of this year he'll have been paid ~$130 million in his career, for 25-26 career WAR.


Soriano is up to $121 mil (with $36 more guaranteed over the next 2 years), and is at 23.6. Take out his pre-arb years, and it's $119 mil for 14.7 WAR. Round it up to 15, assuming he gets another .3 this year.
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 22, 2012 at 08:41 AM (#4214529)
the reds going after swisher seems highly unlikely given that teams are reluctant to change the lineups a lot after a good year unless an obvious gap has been formed by someone leaving. toss in the success of both ludwick and frazier and i don't think jocketty thinks the reds have a left field problem though with rolen clearly on the downside it looks like frazier is the third baseman to be.

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