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Monday, December 10, 2012

Tampa Tribune: Rays trade Shields, Davis to Royals for four prospects

The Tampa Bay Rays executed the biggest trade in team history Sunday night, sending pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City Royals for four minor league players, including outfielder Wil Myers, the Royals’ top prospect.

The Rays also received right-handed pitcher Jake Odorizzi, left-handed pitcher Mike Montgomery and third baseman Patrick Leonard.

KC Star: Royals get Shields, Davis from Rays for Myers, Odorizzi, two others

NTNgod Posted: December 10, 2012 at 12:41 AM | 296 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rays, royals

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   201. Zach Posted: December 10, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4321203)
The Colon signing seemed kind of meh at the time, but it's not like I'm a draft expert. All of the really big talents were gone, so they went with a seemingly safe pick.
   202. JJ1986 Posted: December 10, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4321213)
BA had him 9th, Sickels 11th, both had him below Pomeranz and Sale. It wasn't a big reach, but I don't think it was a good choice for the organization.
   203. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 10, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4321214)
That's fair.
   204. Ziggy Posted: December 10, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4321239)
Couldn't Moore have tried to save his job by saying: "Look, Wil Myers will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal value for us. We took him under my watch. Just hang tight and watch the money roll in?"* The expected marginal value on Myers has to be tens of millions. Even if you're certain that he'll be an average major leaguer (ie., less than Jay Bruce), that's $5M x2 x6 in value above replacement. Subtract what he'll earn, and you're still left with something like $30-$40 million. And that's on a pessamistic projection, his expected marginal value must be much higher than that. There's no way that James Shields has that much expected marginal value. Glass must be furious, and if he isn't, he should be. Dayton Moore just cost him a lot of money.

*Glossing over the fact that other decisions didn't work out so well.
   205. Tippecanoe Posted: December 10, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4321264)
There is the western gate, Luke Hochevar,


God slays himself with every ball that flies
   206. Topher Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4321269)
Couldn't Moore have tried to save his job by saying: "Look, Wil Myers will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal value for us.


Perhaps. But one would think that Moore would need to understand what "marginal value" means before using the term correctly in a sentence. So I think it is unlikely such a case would be made to ownership.
   207. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4321274)
I'm generally opposed to critiques that assume people are stupid. Mistaken or misguided, sure, but it's tough to get a GM job if you're a complete boob.
   208. Zach Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:17 PM (#4321281)
I'm generally opposed to critiques that assume people are stupid.

Good argument, wrong thread to make it in.
   209. Ron J2 Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:18 PM (#4321282)
#207 Peter Principle in action? He (and/or the people working for him) is obviously well above average at recognizing raw talent. Or perhaps in projecting undrafted players. At any rate he does some useful things quite well.



   210. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4321286)
Couldn't Moore have tried to save his job by saying: "Look, Wil Myers will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal value for us. We took him under my watch. Just hang tight and watch the money roll in?


How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media? Maybe Glass gets that; it's a near-certainty that most of the fan base won't.

Sam Mellinger's article, which I linked earlier, made this point:



But this much should also be recognized: Moore and owner David Glass just made the kind of move I've been hammering them to make for quite some time.

Along with Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, the Royals' top four starting pitchers for 2013 have all been acquired in the last few months. Shields is due around $10 million and Davis $2.8 million, meaning Glass has OK'd the $80 million payroll that a lot of us have been screaming for.

The Royals are trying to win, in other words, and trying to do so now - so in some ways it's a bit disingenuous to be complaining now that they're doing it.


and I absolutely subscribe to that view. A good chunk of Moore's intent in making this deal is to show his boss and the community that the Royals are trying to grab the opportunity that they see. He's running the not-insignificant risk that Mellinger is right and that he's grabbing for it a year early, but that's the chance you have to take sometimes.

-- MWE
   211. base ball chick Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4321288)
i'm really REALLY not getting this

working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF, what good is myers sitting at AAA for 2 more years? this is like the astros wasting chris burke/jason lane in the minors for years because they WERE gonna play biggio/assorted veteran.

gil meche is the ONLY free agent who could have gotten work somewhere else, who agreed to go to KC (and they had had a winning record in 03, remember?) and you think that GOOD pitcher FA are gonna suddenly agree to go there WHY? based on like WHAT evidence?

do you think that the royals should just have continued to have no starting pitching other than the crap they have? you think that odorizzi = shields?

when exactly would it be OK with you for them to trade SOMEone for pitching? no, they failed to develop any good pitcher since greinke. so they can either buy crap or trade for someone. and if you want to have even a chance at winning, you can't get there with bruce chen x 5. why, now, should they wait for TWO MORE YEARS? how would that change anything except for having all their currently young players more expensive?
   212. Zach Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:32 PM (#4321292)
working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF

Why does this have to be the reality we work with? Most of the time, the reality is that an underachieving veteran who's blocking a top prospect is going to be kicked to the curb. A mistake doesn't stop being a mistake because you compare it to a bigger mistake.

when exactly would it be OK with you for them to trade SOMEone for pitching?

When the Royals get equal or greater value in return.

   213. JJ1986 Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4321295)
Francoeur is signed for one more year. He would have been benched or traded or released in late-May/early-June.
   214. Al Kaline Trio Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4321304)
If he wants the fans to get excited Glass/Moore should try and get Swisher or another free agent to play RF (if he would actually sign).
   215. DA Baracus Posted: December 10, 2012 at 07:39 PM (#4321319)
working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF, what good is myers sitting at AAA for 2 more years? this is like the astros wasting chris burke/jason lane in the minors for years because they WERE gonna play biggio/assorted veteran.


The Royals having mismanaged the team over the years is not a defense of them continuing to mismanage the team this year.
   216. PreservedFish Posted: December 10, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4321323)
How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media? Maybe Glass gets that; it's a near-certainty that most of the fan base won't.


The KC fanbase has been subjected to 20+ years of incompetence. All of a sudden they need some somewhat splashy win-now moves to be mollified? I mean, how did they explain it last year when they didn't land a big fish?
   217. Greg Franklin Posted: December 10, 2012 at 07:50 PM (#4321328)
Speaking of Sickels, he just posted a trade analysis with analogy to, of all things, the Civil War. "Lincoln" on the brain, perhaps?

George McClellan, Dayton Moore, and the Kansas City Royals

Dayton Moore is trying to avoid being McClellan. He's got the farm system built up, the army trained and organized. He's good at that. Now he's taking the field of battle and deploying those forces. That's admirable.

Of course, what's the next part of the story? Is Moore going to turn into an aggressive, brilliant field commander like Ulysses S. Grant or William Tecumseh Sherman? Will he be cautious but effective like George Gordon Meade? Mercurial and erratic like Joe Hooker? Or will he be the well-meaning but dangerously inept Ambrose Burnside? The suicidally aggressive John Bell Hood?
   218. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4321333)
George McClellan, Dayton Moore, and the Kansas City Royals

Dayton Moore is trying to avoid being McClellan. He's got the farm system built up, the army trained and organized. He's good at that. Now he's taking the field of battle and deploying those forces. That's admirable.

Of course, what's the next part of the story? Is Moore going to turn into an aggressive, brilliant field commander like Ulysses S. Grant or William Tecumseh Sherman? Will he be cautious but effective like George Gordon Meade? Mercurial and erratic like Joe Hooker? Or will he be the well-meaning but dangerously inept Ambrose Burnside? The suicidally aggressive John Bell Hood?


Good analogy, bad forecast for the Royals. I don't think McClellan ever won a battle.
   219. Topher Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4321342)
How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media? Maybe Glass gets that; it's a near-certainty that most of the fan base won't.


I'd argue that for better or worse, the KC fan base has been beaten to the point where, if anything, they have been brainwashed to put their faith in the farm system.

That's in part by making some dumb moves for established talent. I think some folks probably woke up to this in 2004 after the terrible moves of going for it by signing Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago. But the recent moves haven't helped at all. Going for it in 2008 by signing Jose Guillen to a huge contract and overpaying what little was left of Brett Tomko. In 2009 by trading for Mike Jacobs and signing Kyle Farnsworth and Jason Kendall to much more than they were worth.

Previous moves had jaded the fan base and had a good number of folks looking to the minors. The 2010 farm system being anointed as the bEST FARM SYSTEM EEVER!!1! grabbed a hold of those that hadn't previously been on the bandwagon.

KC radio has enjoyed taking shots at the fans by repeatedly pointing out that fans know much more about the AA and AAA players than they do the major league roster. Wil Myers received an ovation that hadn't ever been seen before at a Future's Game. Heck, KC (I think) became the first city to ever sell out the Future's Game.

I don't think the fanbase needed any convincing of the long term value of holding onto a prospect like Myers. It has been beaten over their heads enough by now that the concept has stuck.

Now this generalization is not true of the super-casual fans in KC. But they haven't been following the Royals for years anyway.
   220. Topher Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4321347)
The KC fanbase has been subjected to 20+ years of incompetence. All of a sudden they need some somewhat splashy win-now moves to be mollified? I mean, how did they explain it last year when they didn't land a big fish?


I think you are forgetting about the big trade for Jonathan Sanchez. Although one could argue that that particular move did not end up mollifying the fanbase.
   221. Dylan B Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4321348)
I must be missing something, cause Myers to me looks like a similar player to Travis Snider up to this point of his career. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?
   222. zachtoma Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4321351)
Of course the trade looks better when you take Wil Myers' floor - Travis Snider, Delmon Young, Jay Bruce even - and say "welp, this is the kind of player Wil Myers is likely to be, so what's the big deal?". That's not good analysis, though.
   223. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4321354)
are youse seriously saying that either anibal sanchez or edwin jackson is as good or reliable a pitcher as jamie shields?


Um yeah, check out the numbers. Jackson in particular has been one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. Sanchez doesn't have has long a track record, but the for the last three years he's been definitely as good as Shields.

I'm sure Oswalt would sign with the Royals as he's not likely to get a lot of offers elsewhere. And 5/65 isn't really an overpay for Jackson, who is a 3 WAR starter and only 29. Certainly I'd rather have Jackson at 11 million a year and Myers than Shields at 11 million a year (for only 2 years) and no Myers.

I thought this trade would be declared universally awful, but apparently there are still morons out there (looking at you Rosenthal).
   224. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4321356)
do you think that the royals should just have continued to have no starting pitching other than the crap they have? you think that odorizzi = shields?


No they should have played Myers instead of Francouer. That's also Dayton Moore being in idiot. Just because his idiocy is in conflict with itself doesn't mean it's excused.

Or better yet they should have been able to get more value out of Myers + Odorizzi.
   225. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4321357)
are youse seriously saying that either anibal sanchez or edwin jackson is as good or reliable a pitcher as jamie shields?

Seriously, a week ago, devoid of all the Dayton Moore hatred and Andrew Friedman love, I would have assumed people would group those three together. What makes you think Jamie Shields is that great?
   226. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4321360)
I must be missing something, cause Myers to me looks like a similar player to Travis Snider up to this point of his career. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?


Yeah and Myers also looks like a very similar player to Barry Bonds up to this point. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?
   227. Dylan B Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4321363)
But what is his ceiling? I don't see Mike Trout or Ryan Braun in his minor league numbers.
   228. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4321365)
I don't see Mike Trout or Ryan Braun in his minor league numbers.


You're right. Because Ryan Braun was in R ball and A when he was 21. Myers was putting up a .987 OPS in AA and AAA (591 PA). I'm not arguing Myers is an all time great prospect, but he clearly would be a top 10 prospect any year.
   229. Dylan B Posted: December 10, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4321368)
Yeah and Myers also looks like a very similar player to Barry Bonds up to this point. Can someone point out where I am wrong in this?

Wow, hyperbole much? Pretend for a minute that they are the same body type, there is a pretty big difference in Bonds' minor league K rate and what parks were in the PCL in 1986. Not even close to the hitter's league that it is now.
   230. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4321369)
Myers in AA and AAA had a .987 OPS, Bonds had a .943 OPS. Myers did strike out a lot more, but also had more power.

The point is that comparing him to a single case, good or bad, is bad analysis. You want to compare him to all hitters rated in the to 5 among prospects.
   231. Dylan B Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:05 PM (#4321371)
And I'm not arguing that he isn't a top 10 prospect now, hell even top 5. I think he is just likely to be Jay Bruce at the top end. He is very likely to get there, but I still think trading him at his value peak as a "top prospect" for a front of the rotation starter plus a good back end isn't the worst way to handle this.
   232. Topher Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4321374)
Dylan, the problem is that you just can't point at a single player's minor league number and say "that is who he is going to be".

So the Barry Bonds rate isn't perfect for you. How about Joey Votto? Fairly similar in stats and body. Does that work? If so, the comparison favors Wil Myers based on the minor league numbers alone.

Could he be Travis Snyder? Sure.

I think the more interesting thing would be to look at the OPS+ career leaders and point out the players on that list that weren't top notch prospects. There are very few of them.

Does that mean that Wil Myers is going to join that list? Of course not. But he's got a chance of being high on that list and there are only a handful of prospects that you can say that about each season.

Personally, I think the Jay Bruce comp is the best for what Myers becomes. But that's not his ceiling. Just, to me, the most likely outcome.
   233. Topher Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4321377)
I still think trading him at his value peak as a "top prospect" for a front of the rotation starter plus a good back end isn't the worst way to handle this.


Agree 100%. But ...

Not if you are the Royals that have to function on limited budget.
Not if you have an albatross in RF that Myers could solve.
Not if the front of the rotation starter doesn't make it extremely likely you get to the postseason because the rest of the team isn't good enough.
And not if the pitcher you get will be out of town via free agency by the time the rest of your roster peaks.

[Edit] Even though you'd be getting even less in return, a trade like this would make a lot more sense to me if it was made in July after the Royals somehow ran off to a 55-40 start. At that point you have a good feeling you are getting to the postseason and even if you just get 1.5 years from Shields, I have no problem going for broke. (On top of that, you might be able to get an even better pitcher if there is a team or two out of the race that is willing to punt the season.) It's just odd to view a 72 win team and think that this is the time you go for it.
   234. vivaelpujols Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4321379)
Not if you are the Royals that have to function on limited budget.
Not if you have an albatross in RF that Myers could solve.
Not if the front of the rotation starter doesn't make it extremely likely you get to the postseason because the rest of the team isn't good enough.
And not if the pitcher you get will be out of town via free agency by the time the rest of your roster peaks.


And not if you also include 3 other decent prospects.
   235. Dylan B Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4321381)
Not if you are the Royals that have to function on limited budget.
Not if you have an albatross in RF that Myers could solve.
Not if the front of the rotation starter doesn't make it extremely likely you get to the postseason because the rest of the team isn't good enough.
And not if the pitcher you get will be out of town via free agency by the time the rest of your roster peaks.


I think some of these reason are why we have the difference of opinion on this trade. Right now I only see one team in the AL who has a great shot at the post season, and there are even some question marks with the Tigers as well. IMO, adding Shields and Davis put the Royals in a position to join that logjam of 9 teams fighting for those other 4 spots. I don't see Myers helping much more than Frenchy this year, definitely moving forward though.
   236. DA Baracus Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:25 PM (#4321383)
I don't see Myers helping much more than Frenchy this year, definitely moving forward though.


Francoeur hit 235/287/378 last year. If Shields can't beat that then the Royals were right to trade him.
   237. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:28 PM (#4321384)
Just hang tight and watch the money roll in?"


Isn't that the Royals entire business model?
   238. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4321385)
From the first century:

but the only reason to include one in December is so that the value of the trade can be changed later

Or the player hasn't been in the system for a year yet -- i.e. a 2012 draft pick. Or did they change that rule?

yes this trade most likely weakens their 2013 team

"their" being the Rays. I'm not so sure about that. The Rays need to replace Upton's production and Shields was "only" 2.2 bWAR last year. The Rays have a lot of SP depth -- maybe not as good as Shields but likely not a huge dropoff either. If Myers can be close to an average LF in 2013, this trade probably doesn't hurt the Rays to any significant extent. (The loss of Upton will likely hurt.)

As to the value of Shields ... I'm not sure anybody here goes on more about the importance of durability in SP and how it tends to be under-valued around here than me. But there are 43 SP who have made 90+ starts over the last 3 seasons combined. Among those, Shields is 30th in ERA+. He is 3rd in IP but the difference between him and the guys at the bottom of the IP ranking is about 30 IP or half a reliever. Despite the extra durability, by bWAR he's 34th among those 43, a full win behind Jackson and nearly 2 full wins behind Guthrie. Shields has been a top #2 starter, not an ace.

Fangraphs treats him MUCH more kindly but it's simply impossible to buy fangraphs numbers here. In 2010 he had an ERA+ of 75 and gave up 11 UER. bWAR gives him nearly -2 WAR which sounds about right. fWAR somehow turns that into a league average starter and gives him 2 WAR, largely due to having a 344 BABIP.

FWIW his 2012 ZiPS were pretty much spot on to his actual performance so I assume his 2013 ZiPS will be about the same.

Like most any pitcher, Shields' b-r comps are a scary bunch. Kevin Brown would be a lovely outcome but seems unlikely. Schmidt and Boddicker is what the Royals hope they're getting -- both about 8 WAR for 31-32, who cares if they fell apart after that. The other 7 are all bad outcomes. His top 3 2012 ZiPS comps were Lieber, Vazquez and Dennis Leonard with the first two providing 6-8 WAR and Leonard being kinda useless.

working with reality - meaning that jeff francoeur is GOING to play RF, what good is myers sitting at AAA for 2 more years?

bbc, this is beneath you. I'm amazed how often this argument is made here:

"Moore is an idiot."

"No, this is a defensible trade under the assumption that Moore is too stupid to know that Myers is better than Francoeur."

"Glad to know we agree."

Seriously, at least I'm giving Moore the benefit of the doubt in that I think he knows Myers > Francoeur, I just think he's over-valuing Shields, misjudging the Royals' chances and probably under-valuing Myers (or over-valuing Moose, Hosmer, Gordon).

How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media?

Hey, Royals fans, come out and see minor-league player of the year and top prospect Wil Myers. He's WAY better than Jeff Francoeur!





   239. Tripon Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4321393)
I'm not trading Jay Bruce for only two years of James Shield.
   240. Topher Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4321394)
Walt, I do think that Moore is well aware that Myers > Francoeur. But I also don't think it is nearly as straightforward as that. Even though Myers might be better, the presence of Frenchy made him expendable.

I don't believe that Moore is willing to take Francoeur out of the lineup. In part because Moore sees Francoeur's tools and he wishcasts Frenchy into a much better player than he really is. But even more because of the amazing clubhouse presence Frenchy is and just how important it is to have a guy like that on the team, especially for a team as young as the Royals are. The latter bugs me because its the one area where as outsiders, we really have no idea just how important it really is. Do I think having Frenchy in the clubhouse matters? No. But maybe it does. Either way, Dayton Moore has gone out of his way to stress how important he believes it to be and as such I think Moore found himself with the luxury of having a top notch prospect he could easily trade because there wasn't a natural spot on the diamond for him to play.
   241. Tripon Posted: December 10, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4321398)
I don't believe that Moore is willing to take Francoeur out of the lineup. In part because Moore sees Francoeur's tools and he wishcasts Frenchy into a much better player than he really is. But even more because of the amazing clubhouse presence Frenchy is and just how important it is to have a guy like that on the team, especially for a team as young as the Royals are.


Moore used the same logic to keep on playing Yuniesky Betancourt for years.
   242. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 10, 2012 at 10:11 PM (#4321406)
Myers is waaaay more athletic than snider ever was, which I think is an important distinction. He could at least fake almost every position on the diamond if need be, while hitting like a big league right fielder - as of right now. No guarantee that he'll develop further, but that's an average big league starter with serious cost control as a somehat pessimistic scenario.
   243. JJ1986 Posted: December 10, 2012 at 10:46 PM (#4321432)
Is there a reason Myers wasn't moved full time to 3B? Just positionally blocked or do they not think he can handle it?
   244. puck Posted: December 10, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4321440)
CAIRO tends to flatten things anyway, but it has all four non-Oriole teams within two games of each other.

http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_


Damn, the Rockies are only projected 2 games better than their pythag from 2012.
   245. Mike Webber Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4321466)
The KC fanbase has been subjected to 20+ years of incompetence. All of a sudden they need some somewhat splashy win-now moves to be mollified? I mean, how did they explain it last year when they didn't land a big fish?


They explained it by saying if you want All-Star Tickets you gotta buy some type of season package. You want to go to the All-star game don't you?

All those partial ticket package went the way of the dodo this off-season, this may be an attempt to salvage that.
And in Kansas City, attendance is still an important part of revenue what with the lack of $200MM per year local TV rights package.
   246. Mike Webber Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4321467)
Is there a reason Myers wasn't moved full time to 3B? Just positionally blocked or do they not think he can handle it?

It's not clear if they thought he could handle it, but Moustakas improved with the glove last year and had a hot start. That's enough for them to pencil him in until 2015.
   247. Suff Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4321479)
I'm wondering what others think.

I was having this discussion with someone else. I think that if Hosmer and Moose were already established as quality starters or better, then Myers is more expendable. But right now, I think of the three, Myers is the LEAST likely to suck because he hasn't sucked in the majors yet, while Moose--and certainly Hosmer--have. They all three have high ceilings, but the chances of them hitting their perceived floor (or worse) is higher with these players who have already demonstrated that they have struggled to adjust. Many people seem to behave as if Hosmer and/or Moose are sure things, and the only thing they haved proved is that they are having trouble adjusting. I think at least one of them will and go on to be good, but they are no more a "sure thing" than Myers is.

Now that he's off the Royals, the pessimist fan in me is convinced Myers is going to hit the ground running as a new Tim Salmon or even better.
   248. base ball chick Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:44 PM (#4321487)
walt

i am not arguing that the royals SHOULD play frenchy. i am saying that they ARE gonna play him and there is no reason to think for one minute that they are going to DFA him in May because the Organization LUUUVVVVSS him. he's not even an AVERAGE player or an old franchise player and he got signed to an extension. for all we know it is glass who wants him there and moore has nothing to say about it. i saw how that works with the astros and the carcass of biggio. i guess him french magic don't work on the bench. i am dealing with reality, which is that myers was NOT gonna displace frenchy.

fact is that none of us have any idea whether or not myers can hit ML pitching. look at hosmer. look at moustakas. look at a shyt ton of other guys who were sure to be The Next Albert Pujols or The Next Darryl Strawberry and ended up being The Next Neverwuz.

true that the melky for sanchez trade didn't work out, but i disremember anyone here saying it was a stupid trade and sanchez was gonna pitch like a 10 year old. shields and davis aren't halliday and cliff lee, but they are the best pitchers KC has had in years, besides greinke. guthrie/ervin santana??? shudder. now THAT is the quality of FA that is willing to sign with KC, not anibal sanchez/edwin jackson.

at some point, unless you are going to be like the astros and marlins, you are supposed to TRY to win, not keep telling your fans - two more years, two more years. they've been saying two more years for 6-7 years. why do you think this team would have been a winner in 2 years IF they actually HADN'T made this trade? who are all these great pitchers they would have in 2 years? because i sure don't see them. odorizzi??? montgomery the reliever who can't locate in the minors? you think they can win with 5 ERA starters and crap relievers even if they had mike eff trout instead of myers?

getting shields/davis for even TWO years looks a LOT more like trying to win than signing the carcasses of jose guillen/jason kendall/reliever/other washed up crap. or doing nothing. or stockpiling more prospects for 2 years from now.

and even if they go 83-81, it is freaking AWESOME to FINALLY have a winning season after decades of losing.

you know, sometimes a team SHOULD trade top prospects for actual major leaguers. you guys always scream like he!! whenever a team trades top notch prospects for major leaguers. and i said "sometimes" and not "all the time" like the astros USED to do.

you guys should go root for the astros - after all, their major league team has no major leaguers (except altuve and he is NOT ryan braun/joey votto) and they are stockpiling prospects. they are gonna be saying - two more years for the next 20 years while waiting for That Magic Moment when everything is perfect. and you can enjoy watching minor league talent play major league games.



   249. PreservedFish Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4321488)
I think I'd go Moustakas #1, Myers #2, Hosmer #3. Without much confidence.
   250. JJ1986 Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4321490)
he's not even an AVERAGE player or an old franchise player and he got signed to an extension.


He was in the middle of a very good season at the time. It wasn't an extension based on his personality.
   251. DA Baracus Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:53 PM (#4321491)
i am saying that they ARE gonna play him and there is no reason to think for one minute that they are going to DFA him in May because the Organization LUUUVVVVSS him.


The same people who love Frenchy and have him locked into RF next year are the same people who thought it would be a good idea to make this trade. That should give you pause in deciding if it was a good move for the Royals.
   252. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 11, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4321505)
hosmer did hit .293/.334/.476 (118 ops+) as a 21 year old, though was blah last season. moose was worth 2.9 b-war as a 23 yr old last year. myers, imo, has the best minor league numbers of the trio.

the central is vulnerable, i get going for it now. however, it's not clear to me that kc is anywhere near ready to do so, nor that shields/davis make them that much better than myers/odo would in the here and now.
   253. Suff Posted: December 11, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4321511)
hosmer did hit .293/.334/.476 (118 ops+) as a 21 year old, though was blah last season. moose was worth 2.9 b-war as a 23 yr old last year. myers, imo, has the best minor league numbers of the trio.


Hosmer had a negative WAR last year and about the same OPS+ as resident-joke Francoeur (in fact, over the last 2 seasons, Frenchy's OPS+ is 101 and Hos is at 100). Hosmer is obviously more likely to bounce back than Frenchy, but these are the facts.

Francoeur had a 98 OPS+ in his age 21-22 seasons. Hosmer's was higher mainly because he played more in his good age 21 season than Francoeur did in his. Francoeur was actually better as a 22-year-old than Hosmer.

The point is not that Hosmer is going to turn into Francoeur. (I actually believe he will be good). It is that he is far from a sure thing. He has clearly demonstrated that he is fully capable of washing out. To me, that is why you have to keep Myers. They haven't gotten their star yet from the "greatest farm system ever" (unless it's Perez). Myers is at least as likely as the rest to be the star, and, I think, the least likely to be crappy.

As for Moose, his defense (of all things) is saving his WAR right now. If he's an actual good defender, he won't have to hit as much. But he has only hit well in short spurts so far and has been really, really awful for long stretches. His career OPS+ is 90 so far (93 last year). Again (for comparison's sake only) Francoeur's career mark is 94.

Now with all the Frenchy comparisons done, maybe now I understand why Moore thinks he's going to be the 2011 version again. Maybe he sees him like he sees his prize guys.
   254. Howie Menckel Posted: December 11, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4321514)

am more than 250 posts behind, so I almost give up.

what about this kid Myers makes him undoubtedly a sure thing compared to, oh, Felix Pie and Ian Stewart at this point in their careers?

   255. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4321516)
i am saying that they ARE gonna play him

Again, that the Royals/Moore are STUPID for playing Francoeur (and paying him reasonably well) is not a counter-argument to "the Royals/Moore are STUPID for making this trade."

Just like early Union generals screwing up the ground war wouldn't have justified a daring shift to a balloon air force strategy! If your general is screwing up, the first step is to end his decision-making authority.

fact is that none of us have any idea whether or not myers can hit ML pitching

And none of us know if Shields arm is about to fall off. The notion that the risk/uncertainty with Myers is higher than the risk/uncertainty with Shields (or any other pitcher) strikes me as unrealistic.

guthrie/ervin santana???

Shields 2010-12: 680 IP, 8.4 K/9, 102 ERA+, 5.1 bWAR (something like 11 fWAR)
Guthrie 2010-12: 599 IP, 5.3 K/9, 100 ERA+, 7 WAR
Santana 2010-12: 629 IP, 6.9 K/9, 94 ERA+, 3.6 WAR

There's not actually a lot of difference among these guys, especially if Santana is healthy. Shields, with that K-rate, is definitely the best bet going forward but if you think Guthrie and Santana aren't decent pitchers, there's no reason (other than fWAR) for you to think Shields is substantially better.

James Shields is not an elite pitcher. Yes, Shields may be the best pitcher the Royals have had since ... 2010!! Wil Myers may be (or may not be) the best position player they've had since ... Beltran? One you get for 2 years for $20 M, the other you could have for 6 years and $20-30 M.


   256. Howie Menckel Posted: December 11, 2012 at 12:59 AM (#4321517)
"The notion that the risk/uncertainty with Myers is higher than the risk/uncertainty with Shields (or any other pitcher) strikes me as unrealistic."

"James Shields is not an elite pitcher."

Really?
Who were the elite AL SPs in 2012 - and, for huge bonus pts - who will they be in 2013?

granting your guarantee that Myers is not Felix Pie or Ian Stewart.
;)



   257. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4321527)
what about this kid Myers makes him undoubtedly a sure thing compared to, oh, Felix Pie and Ian Stewart at this point in their careers?

What about Shields makes him undoubtedly a sure thing compared to, oh, 2/3 of the pitchers in the history of the game?

Myers minor-league line is 303/395/522 and he was essentially that good at AAA last year at the age of 21 when he won the ml player of the year award. BA ranked Myers the #10 prospect prior to his age 20 season and he fell to the #28 prospect prior to his age 21 season. Consensus seems to be that, after his age 21 season, Myers is in the top 5-10 prospects (see earlier discussion earlier in this thread for example).

At 21 Pie put up a line of 283/341/451 at AAA. Pie made it as high as #27 on BA's list prior to his age 21 season; after his age 21 season he fell to #49.

At 21 Stewart was at AA putting up a 270/350/450 line; at 22 at AAA he put up a line of 304/379/478. After a half-season of rookie and a year of A ball, BA foolishly made him the #4 prospect. After his age 21 season, he had fallen to #46. After his good age-22 season at AAA he inched up to 38.

So Myers hits for as good or better an average, walks more, hits for more power and (unlike these two oddly chosen examples) saw his prospect status go up after his age 21 season in AAA rather than down.

And, by the way, the "other" guy in the trade has been rated the #68 and #69 prospect the last two years. FWIW, his minor-league numbers look better than Shields's minor-league numbers on the surface.

Now I don't speak MLE and I can well imagine that Myers hits in a better park than Pie (probably not better than Colorado Springs).
   258. base ball chick Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4321528)
walt

sometimes a team makes a bad decision (signing frenchy and continuing to play him). it does not mean that all other decisions are bad. and i disbelieve in WAR for pitchers/catchers. i know that shields is not an ace. but he has had better years except for that weird 2010, than the other 2 over the past 4-5 years. sure he COULD get hurt. myers could slip and fall and break his hip. youneverknow.

i know exactly zero about how generals operate or what they did wrong in the civil war besides lose/get shot, so that particular example is kind of not real too helpful.

back to myers/shields:

one, you got a guy you KNOW has gotten ML hitters out year after year, throwing 200 innings/year, 2 year for 20 mill
two, you got a guy who in 6 years might could be 6 years older. you could have 6 years for less than 20 mill. he is not a sure thing because nobody is. here and i thought alex gordon was the best position player they'd had since beltran. the reason you think myers WILL (hahaha) be better than gordon is???

three: what's the point of having myers 6 years for 20 mill when they don't have any pitchers who are any good? so you have a hitter. big deal. you think that is gonna make the team win in this supposed magic window opening up after 2015, why? what exactly is GOING to happen in two more years?

you know yourself that thinking that your team gonna have All The Pieces Of The Puzzle in 2 years does not necessarily work out. and the cubs got a LOT more money than the royals do - AND the royals don't have this huge income from tv contracts. and they won't. unlike the astros, they, for some reason, still got fans. and trust me on this, fans can and will finally give up in disgust. TRYING to win in a weak division instead of waiting until??? is not stupid.

thinking that francoeur is a ML regular - now THAT is stupid

   259. DA Baracus Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:32 AM (#4321536)
sometimes a team makes a bad decision (signing frenchy and continuing to play him). it does not mean that all other decisions are bad.


You're right. Luckily though we have over six years of Dayton Moore as a GM to evaluate him and not give him the benefit of the doubt when he makes a move. Meanwhile a team like Tampa Bay has earned the benefit of the doubt.
   260. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:15 AM (#4321549)
I had not known just how bad Francoeur was last season. He wasn't even good by the 'traditional' numbers. .235 BA, 16 HR, 49 RBI in essentially full-time duty.
   261. base ball chick Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:18 AM (#4321551)
DA

yeh, i watched dave littlefield in pitt for years. almost all bad trades and a few good lucky (IMHO) ones.

i would think that by now you'd be tired of hearing about "the process" and the few more years stuff and would want to try to win. i don't see how myers could do that even if frenchy had decided to retire at the end of the 2012 season (i don't wanna say get hit by lightning - that's not very nice) because you gotta have pitching.

i know that it is really depressing to read all of the stuff about how wonderful luhnow is with all these young minor leaguers 5 years away and so what if the ML team has a 20 mill payroll and is filled with AAAA players. losing on purpose to get the #1` pick so you can play prospect churn ala billy beane is fun for all the fantasy lovers, but bad for the actual baseball TEAM

- oh yeah
and i guess that any time a team sheds salary for prospects it is a Win.
i don't understand why YOU GUYS want the payroll kept low. do you seriously think the owner saves it like in a piggy bank to go on a spending spree in 4 or 5 years?
   262. vivaelpujols Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:37 AM (#4321560)
Lisa have you seen the Rays? They are an example of team that has become wildly successful by not trading there young players for expensive veterans. The A's too have been a very good, if spotty, team over the past decade.

The Astro's problem is that they don't really have any young talent who's major league ready. If you guys had a Myers who was ready to play a full season you'd be ecstatic.
   263. DA Baracus Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:51 AM (#4321561)
i would think that by now you'd be tired of hearing about "the process" and the few more years stuff and would want to try to win.


If I was a Royals fan I would have been tired of hearing about "the process" three years ago and I would have no faith that the people who can't get "the process" to work can get this to work either.

i don't understand why YOU GUYS want the payroll kept low. do you seriously think the owner saves it like in a piggy bank to go on a spending spree in 4 or 5 years?


I'm pretty sure David Glass would spend it, just not necessarily on the team.
   264. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:04 AM (#4321569)
I'm generally opposed to critiques that assume people are stupid. Mistaken or misguided, sure, but it's tough to get a GM job if you're a complete boob.


Yea, stupid is thrown around too much about sub-optimal decision making, smart people make dumb decisions due to biases they can't perceive. McClellen was an intelligent man, a great war preparer and planner, but his exceeding caution in actual battle was a losing principle he was too inflexible to change.

Dayton Moore knows he has to show significant progress now to save his job. He knows he can't wait until 2014. So it's understandable he feels compelled to make strong, aggressive moves to ensure next year is a much better one. And when your ownership isn't going to open their wallets to help you, usually the best option to make a quick bid for success is to sell farm chits for existing major league talent.

So in general, the plan isn't stupid. It's the standard plan of the embattled mid to small market GM. But Dayton Moore's weaknesses and biases are what makes the plan so poor.

First, he suffers the bias of all of his recent position prospects struggling, sometimes for years, before some became useful or valuable. Now that he has another top position prospect he's not thinking how great the future might be, he's thinking about the failures and slow development of Butler, Hosmer, Moustakis, etc. He knows he can't afford Myers to struggle, even for a year. It doesn't matter to Dayton Moore if Myers is a 10 time All Star and 3 time MVP between 2015 and 2024 if Dayton is fired in 2013 or 2014.

And it also seems like Dayton is biased towards toolsy guys and the idea that he can predict development. He undervalues OBP, and over-values raw BA. He sees Francour as a solution, not a problem. He see's Myer as a potential bust with a hole in his swing (ignoring that if he's that prescient why did Butler, Hosmer, Moustakis, et all get brought up to struggle?). When you are a GM with a development background, you likely remember all your correct gambles and decisions, and relegate your mistakes to the periphery of your memory.

So he's also biased towards veterans who are proven performers. Shields is an ultimate performer, 220 innings a year, someone you can count on. Ignore the fact he's going from a great defense to a not great defense, Shields is still a good pitcher and Dayton is correct to count on him delivering. And with Davis, he's getting two "proven" pitchers, shoring up an awful rotation, while his young hitters mature and hopefully take a step forward. He can't count on Odorizzi next year, Jake's never proven his mettle in the show.

So this deal is somewhat understandable if you understand his motivations and biases. But it's still a horrible deal, one of the worst trades in recent memory, and the reason is because of his blind spots and biases and perhaps his owners .

What makes this such an awful deal is that Davis and Shields make $12M in 2013, and $17M in $2014. If the budget has $30M to improve the team over the next two years, it's clearly far better to spend it on someone like Anibel Sanchez and keep Myers, Odorizzi + 2 excellent lottery tickets. As Sanchez has asked for 6/$90M or 7/$100M, essentially a long term deal at $14-$15M per year, there is a deal there. KC probably wouldn't have to pay up much, it's unlikely Sanchez is going to walk away from a 7/$105M deal (given teams haven't jumped to pay his demands yet) structured $12M, $15Mx5, $18M final year that is hardly a franchise killer.

Sanchez/Odorizzi are likely to be roughly as valuable next year as Shields/Davis. Myers pushing Francour to the bench is a nice upgrade next year alone, and likely to be a huge win in future years. If Montgomery turns things around or Leonard makes it to the show, more huge win.

So why didn't Dayton do the obviously better deal? Perhaps Sanchez refuses to come to KC at any price, or Glass refuses to sign off on long term deals, even affordable ones for less than 20% of your current payroll (and much less of what your 2020 payroll should be). Or most likely, Dayton doesn't think Sanchez is an ace.

Dayton doesn't think the Dempsters & Sanchezes can save his job, he needs an ace, he needs a winner. Sanchez has only won 30 games in 3 years with a losing record, in the same 3 years Shields won 44 with a winning record.

Dayton won't count on prospects anymore to save his job, he's running out of time, he needs proven veterans. All your fancy WAR and defensive stats, and OBP value doesn't mean anything to Dayton, and never did. He's going to fight this battle like he's fought all the rest, no matter how bad the tide has turned against his methods.
   265. vivaelpujols Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:09 AM (#4321570)
Dayton Moore appears to be an excellent amateur talent evaluator. He also appears to be a dumbass in terms of constructing a major league roster.

If you can't accept that idea that someone might be stupid in some areas you might as well just not say anything critical about any transaction made.
   266. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:15 AM (#4321572)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2012/2614446.html

Reposting the BA article for it's excellence at showing how narrowly the quoted scouts and un-named team personnel measured this decision within the framework of their own job silos.

All of them essentially measured the deal only by whether it made the Royals better next year, which it clearly does in a vacuum, while completely ignoring it's long term cost and any other potential options. I think some are also biased by their empathy over the hole Dayton is in, thinking "hell yes" they'd also sell the farm to save their jobs.
   267. Cooper Nielson Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:21 AM (#4321573)
the central is vulnerable

A lot of people are saying this and I suppose it's true. (Most divisions are "vulnerable.") But the defending AL Champion Tigers have won the AL Central two years in a row, winning an average of 91 games (97 if you count the playoffs) each year, and the 2013 team seems likely to be better than the 2012 team if not as good as the 2011 team.

The Tigers add Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter, lose Delmon Young and Jose Valverde. Seems like a net gain. None of their key players except Martinez and Hunter are really age risks (almost everyone will be 26-31 next season), and no one seemed to overachieve this year except maybe Austin Jackson. (But hopefully his improvement was real and sustainable.) They should be better this year at DH, 2B, and at least one corner OF position. Fielder and Cabrera might decline, might not, but should still be very good. Their top three or four starters look strong, the bullpen should be decent with Alburquerque healthy and Valverde gone. And they're probably not done adding players yet.

Divisions aren't won on paper, but the Tigers have to feel pretty good about their 2013 chances, James Shields or not.
   268. DA Baracus Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:30 AM (#4321576)
Plus the Royals pretty much have to win the division to get to the playoffs. The 2nd place West and East teams will almost certainly be better teams, potentially the third place teams too.
   269. Austin Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:40 AM (#4321578)
Sam Miller and Ben Lindbergh had an interesting take on the trade on their podcast today. They interpret the trade as an admission that the Royals didn't expect to be much better in 2015-2018 than in 2013-2014, which is quite a pessimistic outlook. I don't think that's literally true; they have to placate their fans and Moore has to try to keep his job. But it highlights what the trade means for the Royals, which is that they're putting most of their eggs in the 2013-2014 basket, and that's kind of crazy.

And none of us know if Shields arm is about to fall off. The notion that the risk/uncertainty with Myers is higher than the risk/uncertainty with Shields (or any other pitcher) strikes me as unrealistic.


Precisely! People don't seem to be acknowledging this point enough. If you actually look at history, prospects as highly regarded as Myers actually turn into very good players much more often than not. For instance, as RoyalsRetro posted on the last page, the position players who have won Minor League Player of the Year since 1992 are:

Manny Ramirez
Derek Jeter
Tim Salmon
Andruw Jones
Alex Gordon
Rocco Baldelli
Delmon Young
Mike Trout
Jason Heyward
Joe Mauer
Jay Bruce
Eric Chavez
Paul Konerko


This is too simplistic; I think the consensus is that Myers is not quite as good a prospect as the average Minor League Player of the Year winner. But it pretty starkly illustrates the point. Almost all of these guys turned out well. We can ding Myers for having an apparent market value that doesn't match up with his consensus prospect pedigree, but I think about the worst we can say is that he has a ~60% chance of turning out well. I like those odds, especially given that he'll be cost-controlled for quite a while. Meanwhile, any pitcher, no matter how injury-free his history is, carries a major risk of missing lots of time and/or regressing. Dave Cameron (horror of horrors!) made this point today.

I agree that Shields is likely to be better than Myers over the next two years, but I really don't think he's any more "certain" to be good, and at any rate you don't want certainty when you have low-ish odds of making the playoffs, since upside as well as downside is reduced, and upside helps more than downside hurts for a team in such a position. I certainly see no way to justify the view that he'll provide more value (playoff odds included) to the Royals over the next two years than Myers will over the next six or seven. The Royals were way too likely to have a good team in 2015 with Myers and Odorizzi to throw them away for a long-shot playoff bid this year and next.
   270. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 11, 2012 at 04:17 AM (#4321579)
Meanwhile, any pitcher, no matter how injury-free his history is, carries a major risk of missing lots of time and/or regressing. Dave Cameron (horror of horrors!) made this point today.


I don't think Cameron even made the point as robustly as he should have.

If Myers busts, KC would have been left with a cheap starter in Odorizzi, lottery tickets in Montgomery and Leonard, and $28M to spend.

If Shields needs TJ in 2013, KC has a $28M obligation with NOTHING left to show for it other than Wade Davis, who has proven in almost 400 innings to be at best a back of the rotation guy when pitching for longer than an inning or two. Of course it's likely KC will exercise Shields $1M buyout if he hurts his arm before 2014 instead of paying him $12M to rehab, so in that scenario KC is only spending $17M and 4 very valuable prospects to acquire Wade Davis.

KC took by far the riskiest course by giving up so much in prospects and cash to acquire the "safest" player in the deal.
   271. Dylan B Posted: December 11, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4321614)
Some reason I can't edit my original post. I was going to add that For some reason I had Myers as being shorter and stockier than what he is, so the similarities to Snider as a player are lessened.
   272. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4321634)
Yea, stupid is thrown around too much about sub-optimal decision making, smart people make dumb decisions due to biases they can't perceive.

...

First, he suffers the bias of all of his recent position prospects struggling, sometimes for years, before some became useful or valuable. Now that he has another top position prospect he's not thinking how great the future might be, he's thinking about the failures and slow development of Butler, Hosmer, Moustakis, etc. He knows he can't afford Myers to struggle, even for a year. It doesn't matter to Dayton Moore if Myers is a 10 time All Star and 3 time MVP between 2015 and 2024 if Dayton is fired in 2013 or 2014.

And it also seems like Dayton is biased towards toolsy guys and the idea that he can predict development. He undervalues OBP, and over-values raw BA. He sees Francour as a solution, not a problem. He see's Myer as a potential bust with a hole in his swing (ignoring that if he's that prescient why did Butler, Hosmer, Moustakis, et all get brought up to struggle?). When you are a GM with a development background, you likely remember all your correct gambles and decisions, and relegate your mistakes to the periphery of your memory.

So he's also biased towards veterans who are proven performers. Shields is an ultimate performer, 220 innings a year, someone you can count on. Ignore the fact he's going from a great defense to a not great defense, Shields is still a good pitcher and Dayton is correct to count on him delivering. And with Davis, he's getting two "proven" pitchers, shoring up an awful rotation, while his young hitters mature and hopefully take a step forward. He can't count on Odorizzi next year, Jake's never proven his mettle in the show.

So this deal is somewhat understandable if you understand his motivations and biases. But it's still a horrible deal, one of the worst trades in recent memory, and the reason is because of his blind spots and biases and perhaps his owners .


The sum of all these "biases" is that Dayton Moore is "stupid" as a GM. Maybe he's great at integral and differential calculus, but that description is pretty much the dictionary definition of a stupid GM.
   273. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 11, 2012 at 10:15 AM (#4321655)
Some comparisons:
Myers: .304/.378/.554, 45/98 BB/K as a 21 year old in AAA. The league hit .278/.345/.430.
Bonds: .311/.435/.527, 33/31 BB/K as a 21 year old in AAA. The league hit .280/.347/.411.
Adam Jones: .314/.382/.586, 36/106 as a 21 year old in AAA. The league hit .279/.346/.437.
Jay Bruce: .364/.393/.630, 12/45 as a 21 year old in AAA. The league hit .263/.331/.404.
Jason Kubel: .343/.398/.560, 34/40 as a 22 year old in AAA. The league hit .271/.337/.428.
Travis Snider: .337/.431/.663, 28/47 as a 21 year old in AAA. The league .272/.341/.418, his team hit .290/.354/.457.
Mike Moustakas: .322/.369/.630, 34/67 as a 21 year old in AA/AAA. The league hit .277/.348/.432
Billy Butler: .291/.412/.542, 43/32 as a 21 year old in AAA. The league hit .279/.346/.437.
Hosmer is hard to compare because he only had 120 PAs at AAA as a 21 year old, but he hit .439/.525/.582 with a 19/16 ratio.

I think it's very likely that Myers will become a good player, but as with Bruce and many others, it will probably take 2-3 years before he's productive.

EDIT: K and BB rates would be more helpful, but I'm too lazy to figure those out.
   274. base ball chick Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4321794)
262. vivaelpujols Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:37 AM (#4321560)

Lisa have you seen the Rays? They are an example of team that has become wildly successful by not trading there young players for expensive veterans. The A's too have been a very good, if spotty, team over the past decade.


- i have, in fact, seen the rays
they got incredibly better when they hired gerry hunsicker and one of the first things they did was to trade off one of their number one picks. they also make mistakes with expensive veterans - see carlos pena this year. they first year they got good was the first year that they actually spent some money on the major league team.

tha As have NOT been very good this past decade - they won in 06 and 12 and were awful in between. billy beane made endless trades and signed bad expensive veterans. this is the first year his shtt has worked out. and we'll see how the 2013 team looks after this year's churning has been done. i don't have much faith in billy beane. and yes, i DO know that his owner doesn't want a winning team on the field because it might attract fans and this will make it tougher for them to move somewhere else, get a free taxpayer paid stadium and put all the money in wollf's pocket that he's been craving for the past whatever years he's owned the team.

what has become clear to me is that some owners aren't inteested in winning and all the "young player" and "rebuilding " stuff is just a way to keep payroll low while promising the fan base that is left that they will be respected in the morning.


The Astro's problem is that they don't really have any young talent who's major league ready. If you guys had a Myers who was ready to play a full season you'd be ecstatic.


- if we had myers - let's just suppose he's young albert pujols version 2
the rest of the team is flat out terrible - the ONLY good player is altuve. the starting pitching is lousy, the relief pitching is beyond lousy AND
you have an owner who has said MANY TIMES that he refuses to sign FA (more expensive than phil humber) or spend money on the ML team.
- you take a look at the pitchers in the astros minors. they couldn't find guys who could win at AAA last year. the pitchers at AA are nothing special. they have cosart, who looks good in comparison to the rest and looks like another jordan lyles to me. their best position players are at LEAST 2 years away.

so you have myers cheap for 3 years, then he goes to arb and the owner is going to have to PAY HIM. i mean, if he hit like pujols, he'd get a minimum of 10 mill his first arb year. so he's gonna get traded because the cheapo owner ain't paying out THAT kind of money. so we'd have a great player on a team filled with AAAA crap for 3 years, who is, understandably, counting the seconds until he can get the heck out.

so me, if i was the GM and i had one great player and a team full of crap and no one ML ready in at least 2 years, i would most definitely trade the guy for the best young players - hopefully ML ready, that i could get. and yes i understand that we could have missed out on a supa dupa stah!!!!

but one 10 war player on a team that is lousy is not as helpful as five 2 WAR players.

- oh yeah
i personally think that you CAN rebuild your minors without refusing to have any major leaguers on your major league team. you don't HAVE to sign FA to 9 year contracts. you CAN sign SOME to 2-3 year contracts.

and i think that flat out telling your fanbase, who has been sitting around during 6 years of "the process" that they are gonna have to take the losing for 2 more years, is not exactly good for business.

the astros new owner/GM have told teh fanbase - all 3 dozen of em, plus the prospect luvvers, that the rebuilding will take some 3-4 years. we have seen what goes on the field during the rebuilding. it's why the stadium is empty and so many free tix are floating around. and we can all count, too, and we know what the MINIMUM incoming revenue is and that over half of it is going in the owner's pocket. and THAT is "the process"
   275. Ron J2 Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4321798)
I don't think McClellan ever won a battle.


I'm at a loss to call Antietam anything other than a victory. True, he had it in his power to destroy Lee and didn't.

Also, why doesn't Malvern Hill count? True, it's mostly Porter (overall command on the field) and Hunt (overall handling of the guns) but it was on his watch and on grounds that he approved (to be sure Porter selected the ground, but Mac signed off)

As with Antietam, it's the aftermath of the battle that is so problematic. At Antietam he simply would not commit Porter (and other forces) and after Malvern Hill he needlessly continued his planned withdrawal.
   276. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4321800)
their best position players are at LEAST 2 years away

bbc, after a typical .284 .396 .497 .893 at AA, you don't think Jonathan Singleton will be in the majors in 2014? Goodness, are we Phillies fans going to hate that Hunter Pence trade.
   277. Ron J2 Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4321808)
Dylan, the problem is that you just can't point at a single player's minor league number and say "that is who he is going to be".


And the simplest way to show this is to bring Bobby Bonilla into the discussion. An awful lot of minor leaguers have put up better numbers than Bonilla (who never mastered AA)

The thing about bringing Bonds into the discussion is that as a young player he had a clearly identified weakness (could not turn on an inside pitch) and worked hard to overcome this.

It's fairly unusual to have an easy to identify problem with an elite prospect. And even so, it's also moderately uncommon for a young player to completely overcome a specific problem (at least not without causing problems elsewhere. It is for instance rare for a prospect who strikes out a lot to cut down substantially on the Ks and improve. It's common to cut down the Ks and stay broadly as effective and it's not uncommon to become a better high K hitter)
   278. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4321834)

Plus the Royals pretty much have to win the division to get to the playoffs. The 2nd place West and East teams will almost certainly be better teams, potentially the third place teams too.


I think I posted this already, but FWIW, CAIRO has the Royals at 84 wins, 4 games back of the WC and 7 games back of the Tigers.

Couldn't Moore have tried to save his job by saying: "Look, Wil Myers will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal value for us. We took him under my watch. Just hang tight and watch the money roll in?

How do you explain that to the KC fan base and local media? Maybe Glass gets that; it's a near-certainty that most of the fan base won't.


What is interesting is that I'd say slightly more than half (60% or so) of Royals fans love the trade, while a significant minority (40%) hate it for giving up on Myers. The fanbase overall is certainly not mollified by the stance of "going all in."
   279. base ball chick Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4321906)
edmundo

i'm kinda not sure about singleton, regardless of his numbers. they DO have brett wallace, who is cheap. and it wouldn't make cents (hahaha) to start singleton's arb clock on a bad, losing team that will be bad and losing for the forseeable future. i would be VERY surprised if he starts on the ML team THIS year. and i wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't start in 2014 - IF he's ready - until the super 2 deadline has passed. unless, of course, they have a trading partner in mind. i think it depends on how bad the pitching is and i don't think that phil humber and alex white are oswalt and miller.

yes i know they have altuve and are keeping him but i think they are gambling that a second baseman who has an average glove, is OK on the bases and doesn't hit for power, won't make THAT much in arb. either that, or they are planning to trade him when he gets over minimum wage and play junior deshields.

- oh yeah

you seriously think that dayton moore telling fans - well, we're still in "the process" and we're two years away, again, and i know the pitching is bad, again, but i am not gonna trade wil myers, who is gonna sit in AAA/PH in the majors this year (because for WHATEVER reason they are just NOT gonna bench frenchy - bad decision or not) this year because in the future, he will generate tens of millions of "marginal value" for mr. glass' wallet - is gonna sound good?

or even leaving out the parts where he tells the truth, just telling them that he is not trading myers because myers "will generate tens of millions of dollars in marginal revenue" is sure a heck not gonna make the fanbase happy, seeing as how pretty much nobody knows what "marginal revenue" is and that they already suspect that all this kind of revenue is going to the owner.

what they DO know is that except for 03, losing is the name of the game in KC, that myers wouldn't have any effect on this for a minimum of 2 years, and they want moore/glass to actually TRY to win
   280. JJ1986 Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4321910)
i'm kinda not sure about singleton, regardless of his numbers. they DO have brett wallace, who is cheap. and it wouldn't make cents (hahaha) to start singleton's arb clock on a bad, losing team that will be bad and losing for the forseeable future.


They do get to use the DH now, though, which would seem to suit Wallace perfectly.
   281. base ball chick Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4321913)
forgot -

with what all yall (and sickels) said about mcclellan, he sounds like ned yost - good at building something, bad at using what he built. sort of like staring at your beautiful shiny new sword you just made and standing there with the enemy rushing at you and you doing nothing because you don't want your sword all covered with nicks - as well as icky blood n guts

they should work GMing more like sales - a pitchperson and a deal closer
   282. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4321925)
but i am not gonna trade wil myers, who is gonna sit in AAA/PH in the majors this year (because for WHATEVER reason they are just NOT gonna bench frenchy - bad decision or not)


I don't think there was any way Wil was going to spend all of this year in AAA. Maybe a month to game his service time, but they were experimeting with him in 3B and he played a lot of CF last year. They kept saying they wanted to "increase his utility" and my guess is that his rookie season in KC was going to be spent playing RF when Frenchy needed to sit, CF when Cain got hurt, and 3B when Moose was struggling against lefties.
   283. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4321960)
I'm at a loss to call Antietam anything other than a victory. True, he had it in his power to destroy Lee and didn't.

He outnumbered Lee something like 2:1, and they basically fought to a standstill. That's a draw, at best.

Stopping Lee's invasion was a given. He simply didn't have the staying powere for anything but a glorified raid.
   284. base ball chick Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4321961)
JJ1986

they HAVE to use the repeat pinch hitter now, you mean.

wallace is a league average fielding first baseman to my infallible expert eyeballs. the talk about him playing 3rd or SS is beyond insanity. anyway, he is NOT mo vaughn or david ortiz with the glove. he runs like bengie molina, true, but that gots nothing to do with whether or not he plays first or pinch hits 4 times a game.

if i was the GM or owner and actually WANTED to win and wasn't focused on keeping as much money for myself as possible (it looks like the owner will be pocketing north of 40 mill this year), i would definitely play singleton - IF i had good reason to think he could hit ML pitching THIS year, and DH wallace, who does not appear to be a particularly good ML hitter. Actually, i don't see any position player in the minors who looks as if he's ready to come up and play THIS year, so i would have signed at least SOME major leaguers, even if they aren't exactly STARS!!!! to short term overpay contracts, if possible. ESPECIALLY because houston had trouble signing FA even when we, i mean they, had a large payroll. (don't get me started on carlos EFF lee, who wanted to come to houston and coulda been bought for cheaper)

i know what everyone here says about stopgaps, but i now know it is worse to watch a AAA team trying to play against ML teams in spite of them doing incredible things every 10 games or so, like beating aroldis chapman with 2 outs in t- he 9th). and as long as Old Guy is NOT gonna block a young guy who is ready to come up - which just might could mean trading/releasing said Old Guy and me eating $$$ it is a better idea. the reason in reality that it doesn't work is that most teams refuse to release/trade worn out Old Guy and play the young new guy who is ready (see pedro feliz/chris johnson)
   285. base ball chick Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4321972)
RRAGF1

you would know more about what the front office does than i do. i figured that they wouldn't start his service clock until later, and knowing how they feel about frenchy, well then, i didn't know if they would want to waste him as a pinch hitter - which, in my not so umble opinion, is a tougher job for a newby than playing a regular position.

also, unless they have given up on moose, he should HAVE to face leftys all the time with rare exceptions, seeing as how they want him to be a STAH!!!! so i wasn't expecting them to play myers at third.

i saw lorenzo cain when he was with milwaukee and have been not understanding why they kept him rotting in the minors for so long
   286. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4321986)
if i was the GM or owner and actually WANTED to win and wasn't focused on keeping as much money for myself as possible (it looks like the owner will be pocketing north of 40 mill this year)


Welcome to the Yankee Redneck Tinfoil Hat Club!
   287. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4322036)
Royals Review: 2013 Win Projection Forecast

I decided to go ahead run the numbers myself. I used the Bill James projections available at FanGraphs. For the pitcher's ERA/FIP I took the average of the 2 values. I guesstimated the batting order and playing time. And my numbers come up as:

94-68


Some Notes:

Pitcher WAR ended up as 18.1 WAR (9.0 WAR for starters and 9.1 WAR for relievers). The ERA numbers for some relievers were pretty low (4.10 for Teaford) so the reliever WAR number could even be worse.
The big drags on the hitters looks to be Dyson and Francoeur both being near replacement level and Brett Hayes unable to produce positive WAR from the catcher position.
Bill James sees heavy regression with Hosmer (getting better) and Escobar (getting worse).
One or eight injuries later and this house could topple fast. The lack of position player backups may be a key to how the season goes.
   288. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4322044)
I decided to go ahead run the numbers myself. I used the Bill James projections available at FanGraphs. For the pitcher's ERA/FIP I took the average of the 2 values. I guesstimated the batting order and playing time. And my numbers come up as:

94-68


Wow! And that's before they add Curtis Granderson!
   289. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4322046)
But from the comments:

Bill James projects the AL Standings as follows
AL East
NYY 122-40
TB 117-45
BAL 111-51
TOR 110-52
BOS 99-63

AL Central
DET 108-54
CHW 100-62
KC 94-68
CLE 90-72
MIN 74-88

AL West
TEX 132-30
LAA 110-52
OAK 98-64
SEA 95-67
HOU 70-92


God, Houston must be terrible.
   290. JJ1986 Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4322048)
Do Bill James projection still wildly overrate young hitters?
   291. DA Baracus Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4322059)
I think I posted this already, but FWIW, CAIRO has the Royals at 84 wins, 4 games back of the WC and 7 games back of the Tigers.


Coke product of your choosing.

Someone else probably already mentioned this too but there would have been a pretty good chance that the Rays would trade Shields a year from now, right? Branch Rickey would approve of this from the Rays' perspective.
   292. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4322063)
Seems legit.
I like the Angels winning 110 and finishing 22 back in the west.
   293. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4322091)

Do Bill James projection still wildly overrate young hitters?


And how!
   294. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 11, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4322110)
Let's see, Houston lost 107 games last year in the NL Central, and they are now in the AL West.

They have lost the closer, the other closer, two SP, 1B, 3B and RF from the 2012 team (based on BB-ref's lineup ... most of them were traded mid-season), while adding Alex White, Phil Humber and Trevor Crowe.

They currently have four players making more than the minimum salary, for an estimated payroll of $17 million not including departed players.

Their 1B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH are believed to be Brett Wallace, Matt Dominguez, Fernando Martinez, Jimmy Paredes, and Justin Maxwell.

62 games out of first place sounds about right.
   295. SG Posted: December 11, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4322113)
Do Bill James projection still wildly overrate young hitters?


If by young hitters you mean every single player in baseball, yes, they do.
   296. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 11, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4322150)
Maxwell, fwiw, has put up strong #s defensively in center and has a solid rep there as well.
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