Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, August 20, 2012

Tango: Inconveniently inconvenient context

House of Bamboozled! It’s Tango vs Don Malcolm!

So, given that one of the teams has a lead, the SH is attempted by the team that is in the lead 62% of the time.  I’m not entirely sure of his point.

In The Book, Table 3, I show the “average number of runs scored to the end of the inning”, following each event.  It won’t surprise you that the three events that are followed with the FEWEST runs are: CS, K, and other outs.  And it won’t surprise you that the most runs are scored following the HR, 3B, 2B.  But right there, between reaching on error and getting a single is… the sac bunt.  That is, in the PA of the sac bunt, and all PA that follow, the average team scored 1.031 runs.

How is that possible?  Well, if we look solely at the base-out situation presented, and regardless of whether the batter bunts or not, we expected 1.058 runs to score.  So, this is why we get alot of runs scored in innings when you have a sac bunt: it’s because you happen to have a runner or two already on base!

And in Table 11, we get to the blogger’s point.  We see that following a sac bunt, the team wins 62.8% of the time.  But before the sac bunt, based on the inning, score, base-out, the chance of winning was 63.8%.  Again, we see what the blogger is saying: sac bunts happen to occur when the team already has a good chance of winning.

Edit: Link to the original article: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT SACRIFICE HITS. Jim

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, site news

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. TomH Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4212501)
Does the figure 62.8% include only 'successful' sac bunts (out made, runner(s) advance), or does it include all attemtps, including base hits, ROE, FC, etc.?
   2.     Hey Gurl Posted: August 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4212554)
The number the blogger quoted was 61.4% I am able to arrive at that same number looking only at successful sacrifices, so I assume that is what he was looking at as well.

The question is, how often does a team win when they're in a sacrifice situation and they don't sacrifice? That's tough to determine.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Phil Birnbaum
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogRed Sox trying for mega-free agent double play: Panda and Hanley - CBSSports.com
(158 - 8:42pm, Nov 24)
Last: Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman

NewsblogOT - November 2014 College Football thread
(568 - 8:42pm, Nov 24)
Last: Infinite Joost (Voxter)

NewsblogBig Unit, Pedro, Smoltz headline Hall of Fame ballot
(33 - 8:40pm, Nov 24)
Last: John Northey

NewsblogOTP Politics November 2014: Mets Deny Bias in Ticket Official’s Firing
(4399 - 8:36pm, Nov 24)
Last: greenback calls it soccer

NewsblogESPN Suspends Keith Law From Twitter For Defending Evolution
(159 - 8:27pm, Nov 24)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogSandoval agrees to Red Sox deal, as Boston looks for free agent sweep - CBSSports.com
(34 - 8:26pm, Nov 24)
Last: Roger McDowell spit on me!

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2014
(1059 - 7:52pm, Nov 24)
Last: stevegamer

NewsblogSources: Kyle Seager nearing $100 million extension with Mariners - Yahoo Sports
(33 - 7:38pm, Nov 24)
Last: Curse of the Andino

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(78 - 7:36pm, Nov 24)
Last: steagles

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(8662 - 7:27pm, Nov 24)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogStanton Losing About $141 Million of Record Deal to Taxes - Bloomberg
(58 - 6:51pm, Nov 24)
Last: BDC

NewsblogFemale Sportswriter Asks: 'Why Are All My Twitter Followers Men?' | ThinkProgress
(157 - 6:25pm, Nov 24)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogRays name managerial finalists: Cash, Ibanez, Wakamatsu | Tampa Bay Times
(15 - 6:13pm, Nov 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogJosh Willingham to retire
(1 - 6:01pm, Nov 24)
Last: Win Big Stein's Money

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-24-2014
(15 - 5:47pm, Nov 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

Page rendered in 0.1731 seconds
52 querie(s) executed