Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, August 20, 2012

Tango: Inconveniently inconvenient context

House of Bamboozled! It’s Tango vs Don Malcolm!

So, given that one of the teams has a lead, the SH is attempted by the team that is in the lead 62% of the time.  I’m not entirely sure of his point.

In The Book, Table 3, I show the “average number of runs scored to the end of the inning”, following each event.  It won’t surprise you that the three events that are followed with the FEWEST runs are: CS, K, and other outs.  And it won’t surprise you that the most runs are scored following the HR, 3B, 2B.  But right there, between reaching on error and getting a single is… the sac bunt.  That is, in the PA of the sac bunt, and all PA that follow, the average team scored 1.031 runs.

How is that possible?  Well, if we look solely at the base-out situation presented, and regardless of whether the batter bunts or not, we expected 1.058 runs to score.  So, this is why we get alot of runs scored in innings when you have a sac bunt: it’s because you happen to have a runner or two already on base!

And in Table 11, we get to the blogger’s point.  We see that following a sac bunt, the team wins 62.8% of the time.  But before the sac bunt, based on the inning, score, base-out, the chance of winning was 63.8%.  Again, we see what the blogger is saying: sac bunts happen to occur when the team already has a good chance of winning.

Edit: Link to the original article: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT SACRIFICE HITS. Jim

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, site news

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. TomH Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4212501)
Does the figure 62.8% include only 'successful' sac bunts (out made, runner(s) advance), or does it include all attemtps, including base hits, ROE, FC, etc.?
   2. Shock Posted: August 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4212554)
The number the blogger quoted was 61.4% I am able to arrive at that same number looking only at successful sacrifices, so I assume that is what he was looking at as well.

The question is, how often does a team win when they're in a sacrifice situation and they don't sacrifice? That's tough to determine.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Adam S
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogDodgers rookie Cody Bellinger has never heard of 'Seinfeld,' teammates hilariously respond
(78 - 9:50am, Jun 27)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogOTP 26 June 2017: Confederations Cup shows how sports media in Russia differs from politics
(37 - 9:46am, Jun 27)
Last: BrianBrianson

NewsblogTim Tebow moves up a level, proving Mets only care about one thing
(42 - 9:42am, Jun 27)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Bronson Y Pollo

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(7323 - 9:38am, Jun 27)
Last: Der-K: downgraded to lurker

NewsblogFox Sports eliminates digital writing staff in favor of promoting their debate shows
(9 - 9:34am, Jun 27)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogCENTRAL PARK - JULY 1, 2017 10 AM - BBTF ANNUAL SOFTBALL EXTRAVAGANZA
(278 - 9:10am, Jun 27)
Last: Blastin

Gonfalon CubsMeh
(40 - 9:04am, Jun 27)
Last: Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist

NewsblogMyself, OMNICHATTER, two droids, and no questions asked, for June 26, 2017
(67 - 8:56am, Jun 27)
Last: TomH

NewsblogEvery year, players emerge from nowhere to become All-Stars; here are this year’s candidates | The Seattle Times
(42 - 8:46am, Jun 27)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogVideo: Idiot Mets fan catches foul ball at Dodger Stadium, nearly drops baby, wife ready to kill him
(16 - 8:34am, Jun 27)
Last: Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens

NewsblogDetroit Tigers release struggling closer Francisco Rodriguez
(32 - 12:47am, Jun 27)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogSandy Alderson: Mets on the verge of being sellers
(10 - 12:31am, Jun 27)
Last: Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb

NewsblogForbes: Seattle Mariners Owning Social Media And Not Just Sticking To Baseball
(3 - 12:26am, Jun 27)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogThe Giants chemistry is suffering because a guy they all hated is gone
(21 - 11:20pm, Jun 26)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogRays To Acquire Adeiny Hechavarria
(12 - 10:53pm, Jun 26)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

Page rendered in 0.2557 seconds
47 querie(s) executed