Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, August 20, 2012

Tango: Inconveniently inconvenient context

House of Bamboozled! It’s Tango vs Don Malcolm!

So, given that one of the teams has a lead, the SH is attempted by the team that is in the lead 62% of the time.  I’m not entirely sure of his point.

In The Book, Table 3, I show the “average number of runs scored to the end of the inning”, following each event.  It won’t surprise you that the three events that are followed with the FEWEST runs are: CS, K, and other outs.  And it won’t surprise you that the most runs are scored following the HR, 3B, 2B.  But right there, between reaching on error and getting a single is… the sac bunt.  That is, in the PA of the sac bunt, and all PA that follow, the average team scored 1.031 runs.

How is that possible?  Well, if we look solely at the base-out situation presented, and regardless of whether the batter bunts or not, we expected 1.058 runs to score.  So, this is why we get alot of runs scored in innings when you have a sac bunt: it’s because you happen to have a runner or two already on base!

And in Table 11, we get to the blogger’s point.  We see that following a sac bunt, the team wins 62.8% of the time.  But before the sac bunt, based on the inning, score, base-out, the chance of winning was 63.8%.  Again, we see what the blogger is saying: sac bunts happen to occur when the team already has a good chance of winning.

Edit: Link to the original article: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT SACRIFICE HITS. Jim

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, site news

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. TomH Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4212501)
Does the figure 62.8% include only 'successful' sac bunts (out made, runner(s) advance), or does it include all attemtps, including base hits, ROE, FC, etc.?
   2. Endless Trash Posted: August 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4212554)
The number the blogger quoted was 61.4% I am able to arrive at that same number looking only at successful sacrifices, so I assume that is what he was looking at as well.

The question is, how often does a team win when they're in a sacrifice situation and they don't sacrifice? That's tough to determine.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Tuque
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogTHE HALL OF FAME VALUE STANDARD (Bill James rank 25 worst players in HOF & 25 best not in the HOF)
(4 - 10:23am, Dec 12)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogBanning The Shift? MLB Managers Oppose Idea At 2018 Winter Meetings
(4 - 10:21am, Dec 12)
Last: bobm

NewsblogBlue Jays cut ties with Tulowitzki
(17 - 10:21am, Dec 12)
Last: Crispix Attacksel Rios

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)
(3548 - 10:15am, Dec 12)
Last: spivey

NewsblogThibs' Hall of Fame Tracker
(428 - 10:14am, Dec 12)
Last: bobm

NewsblogAnalytics' rise a leading topic at Winter Meetings
(17 - 10:02am, Dec 12)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature

NewsblogSmith, Baines elected to Baseball Hall of Fame
(534 - 9:58am, Dec 12)
Last: bachslunch

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 12-12-2018
(1 - 9:52am, Dec 12)
Last: Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee)

NewsblogJayson Stark wins Baseball Hall of Fame's Spink Award
(50 - 9:52am, Dec 12)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogQuick Hits: Angels, Giants, Braves - MLB Trade Rumors
(1 - 9:48am, Dec 12)
Last: Ginger Nut

Hall of MeritMock 2019 Hall of Fame Election Results
(7 - 9:46am, Dec 12)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread (The Berhalter Thread?)
(147 - 9:31am, Dec 12)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogPhillies To Sign Andrew McCutchen
(19 - 9:21am, Dec 12)
Last: Crispix Attacksel Rios

NewsblogMets, Yankees, Marlins In Talks On Three-Team Deal - MLB Trade Rumors
(60 - 8:41am, Dec 12)
Last: Adam Starblind

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (December 2018)
(467 - 8:40am, Dec 12)
Last: Gonfalon Bubble

Page rendered in 0.2233 seconds
46 querie(s) executed