Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, August 20, 2012

Tango: Inconveniently inconvenient context

House of Bamboozled! It’s Tango vs Don Malcolm!

So, given that one of the teams has a lead, the SH is attempted by the team that is in the lead 62% of the time.  I’m not entirely sure of his point.

In The Book, Table 3, I show the “average number of runs scored to the end of the inning”, following each event.  It won’t surprise you that the three events that are followed with the FEWEST runs are: CS, K, and other outs.  And it won’t surprise you that the most runs are scored following the HR, 3B, 2B.  But right there, between reaching on error and getting a single is… the sac bunt.  That is, in the PA of the sac bunt, and all PA that follow, the average team scored 1.031 runs.

How is that possible?  Well, if we look solely at the base-out situation presented, and regardless of whether the batter bunts or not, we expected 1.058 runs to score.  So, this is why we get alot of runs scored in innings when you have a sac bunt: it’s because you happen to have a runner or two already on base!

And in Table 11, we get to the blogger’s point.  We see that following a sac bunt, the team wins 62.8% of the time.  But before the sac bunt, based on the inning, score, base-out, the chance of winning was 63.8%.  Again, we see what the blogger is saying: sac bunts happen to occur when the team already has a good chance of winning.

Edit: Link to the original article: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT SACRIFICE HITS. Jim

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, site news

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. TomH Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4212501)
Does the figure 62.8% include only 'successful' sac bunts (out made, runner(s) advance), or does it include all attemtps, including base hits, ROE, FC, etc.?
   2. Moose Mash Posted: August 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4212554)
The number the blogger quoted was 61.4% I am able to arrive at that same number looking only at successful sacrifices, so I assume that is what he was looking at as well.

The question is, how often does a team win when they're in a sacrifice situation and they don't sacrifice? That's tough to determine.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.



<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF


Thanks to
for his generous support.


You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

(753 - 3:28pm, Nov 25)
Last: The Id of SugarBear Blanks

NewsblogFree-agent starters Red Sox may try to sign |
(23 - 3:24pm, Nov 25)
Last: Brian

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2015
(1186 - 3:21pm, Nov 25)
Last: theboyqueen

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-25-2015
(33 - 3:16pm, Nov 25)
Last: Batman

NewsblogStarting pitchers should throw fewer innings |
(41 - 3:05pm, Nov 25)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT - November* 2015 College Football thread
(856 - 2:59pm, Nov 25)
Last: Ithaca2323

NewsblogOffseason plotting for Cubs and White Sox picks up steam at GM meetings - Chicago Tribune
(4 - 2:51pm, Nov 25)
Last: Moses Taylor, Optimist

NewsblogOT Gaming: October 2015
(184 - 2:14pm, Nov 25)
Last: Poster Nutbag

NewsblogWin a Free Copy of THT 2016! | FanGraphs Baseball
(3 - 1:58pm, Nov 25)
Last: Brian

NewsblogMuñoz’s path to the Phillies doesn't often happen
(5 - 1:55pm, Nov 25)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogOne way to help improve the Red Sox pitching in 2016: Keep Jackie Bradley
(4 - 1:48pm, Nov 25)
Last: Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer

NewsblogRed Sox prospect Yoan Moncada is more muscle than man | For The Win
(16 - 1:11pm, Nov 25)
Last: DCA

NewsblogRod Carew opens up about his private life and his near-death experience
(56 - 1:06pm, Nov 25)
Last: Jick

NewsblogOT: Soccer in November 2015
(127 - 12:06pm, Nov 25)
Last: J. Sosa

Hall of Merit2016 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(108 - 11:44am, Nov 25)
Last: DL from MN

Page rendered in 0.2490 seconds
47 querie(s) executed