Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, August 20, 2012

Tango: Inconveniently inconvenient context

House of Bamboozled! It’s Tango vs Don Malcolm!

So, given that one of the teams has a lead, the SH is attempted by the team that is in the lead 62% of the time.  I’m not entirely sure of his point.

In The Book, Table 3, I show the “average number of runs scored to the end of the inning”, following each event.  It won’t surprise you that the three events that are followed with the FEWEST runs are: CS, K, and other outs.  And it won’t surprise you that the most runs are scored following the HR, 3B, 2B.  But right there, between reaching on error and getting a single is… the sac bunt.  That is, in the PA of the sac bunt, and all PA that follow, the average team scored 1.031 runs.

How is that possible?  Well, if we look solely at the base-out situation presented, and regardless of whether the batter bunts or not, we expected 1.058 runs to score.  So, this is why we get alot of runs scored in innings when you have a sac bunt: it’s because you happen to have a runner or two already on base!

And in Table 11, we get to the blogger’s point.  We see that following a sac bunt, the team wins 62.8% of the time.  But before the sac bunt, based on the inning, score, base-out, the chance of winning was 63.8%.  Again, we see what the blogger is saying: sac bunts happen to occur when the team already has a good chance of winning.

Edit: Link to the original article: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT SACRIFICE HITS. Jim

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, site news

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. TomH Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4212501)
Does the figure 62.8% include only 'successful' sac bunts (out made, runner(s) advance), or does it include all attemtps, including base hits, ROE, FC, etc.?
   2. Poisonous Moose Posted: August 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4212554)
The number the blogger quoted was 61.4% I am able to arrive at that same number looking only at successful sacrifices, so I assume that is what he was looking at as well.

The question is, how often does a team win when they're in a sacrifice situation and they don't sacrifice? That's tough to determine.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Kiko Sakata
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP - 2016 February 8: There’s baseball, politics … and real problems
(2221 - 2:01pm, Feb 14)
Last: zenbitz

NewsblogWrigleyville - What a Slutter Does, Has Done, and Might Do for Jake Arrieta
(15 - 2:01pm, Feb 14)
Last: puck

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - February 2016
(777 - 1:46pm, Feb 14)
Last: Norcan

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread - February 2016
(189 - 1:45pm, Feb 14)
Last: Shooty is obsessed with the latest hoodie

NewsblogNick Cafardo: A comprehensive ranking of all 30 major league managers - The Boston Globe
(10 - 1:41pm, Feb 14)
Last: Rickey! doesn't think YR is a less terrible Sam

NewsblogJennry Mejia permanently banned by MLB for third PED test
(27 - 1:41pm, Feb 14)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)

NewsblogDusty Baker survived ruin and humiliation. With the Nationals, he can go out on top. | The Washington Post
(36 - 1:40pm, Feb 14)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogCricket Star Kieran Powell Tosses His Bat and Picks Up a Smaller, Rounder One | NYTimes
(19 - 1:38pm, Feb 14)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)

NewsblogMLBPA chief says it would be 'beneficial' to look into a draft lottery - CBSSports.com
(20 - 1:34pm, Feb 14)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)

NewsblogCC Sabathia: Alcohol rehab couldn’t wait until after postseason | Newsday
(8 - 1:25pm, Feb 14)
Last: Joe Bivens, Minor Genius

NewsblogTop 100 Prospects - BaseballAmerica.com
(17 - 1:16pm, Feb 14)
Last: billyshears

NewsblogBrian Bannister and the art of making pitchers better - The Boston Globe
(2 - 1:08pm, Feb 14)
Last: Norcan

NewsblogA wild pitch from Montreal: Split the Rays with Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay Times
(23 - 12:56pm, Feb 14)
Last: Rickey! doesn't think YR is a less terrible Sam

NewsblogWorld Baseball Classic Qualifier (Sydney) Day 1 OMNICHATTER
(23 - 1:25am, Feb 14)
Last: Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili (TeddyF.Ballgame)

NewsblogBrian Kenny: HALL OF FAME'S ANTI-RECENCY BIAS
(83 - 10:46pm, Feb 13)
Last: Ithaca2323

Page rendered in 0.1269 seconds
47 querie(s) executed