Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, August 20, 2012

Tango: Inconveniently inconvenient context

House of Bamboozled! It’s Tango vs Don Malcolm!

So, given that one of the teams has a lead, the SH is attempted by the team that is in the lead 62% of the time.  I’m not entirely sure of his point.

In The Book, Table 3, I show the “average number of runs scored to the end of the inning”, following each event.  It won’t surprise you that the three events that are followed with the FEWEST runs are: CS, K, and other outs.  And it won’t surprise you that the most runs are scored following the HR, 3B, 2B.  But right there, between reaching on error and getting a single is… the sac bunt.  That is, in the PA of the sac bunt, and all PA that follow, the average team scored 1.031 runs.

How is that possible?  Well, if we look solely at the base-out situation presented, and regardless of whether the batter bunts or not, we expected 1.058 runs to score.  So, this is why we get alot of runs scored in innings when you have a sac bunt: it’s because you happen to have a runner or two already on base!

And in Table 11, we get to the blogger’s point.  We see that following a sac bunt, the team wins 62.8% of the time.  But before the sac bunt, based on the inning, score, base-out, the chance of winning was 63.8%.  Again, we see what the blogger is saying: sac bunts happen to occur when the team already has a good chance of winning.

Edit: Link to the original article: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT SACRIFICE HITS. Jim

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, site news

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. TomH Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4212501)
Does the figure 62.8% include only 'successful' sac bunts (out made, runner(s) advance), or does it include all attemtps, including base hits, ROE, FC, etc.?
   2.   Posted: August 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4212554)
The number the blogger quoted was 61.4% I am able to arrive at that same number looking only at successful sacrifices, so I assume that is what he was looking at as well.

The question is, how often does a team win when they're in a sacrifice situation and they don't sacrifice? That's tough to determine.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BFFB
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-2-2014
(26 - 10:11pm, Sep 02)
Last: Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio

NewsblogGleeman: Twins ask fans which brand of luxury car they are
(13 - 10:10pm, Sep 02)
Last: The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott)

NewsblogExpanded Rosters Exacerbate Baseball’s Biggest Issue
(29 - 10:09pm, Sep 02)
Last: flournoy

NewsblogGiants to promote Brett Bochy
(1 - 10:08pm, Sep 02)
Last: Bhaakon

NewsblogPhoto of the day: Bill Murray, indy league ticket-taker
(126 - 10:08pm, Sep 02)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogBrewers prospect plays every position, all in one game
(20 - 10:03pm, Sep 02)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogMets call up Dilson Herrera, have "talked about" d'Arnaud to LF
(52 - 10:01pm, Sep 02)
Last: The District Attorney

NewsblogThe indisputable selfishness of Derek Jeter
(34 - 10:00pm, Sep 02)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogBPP: Why do people still think Jack Morris pitched to the score?
(37 - 9:52pm, Sep 02)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(316 - 9:51pm, Sep 02)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogNewsweek: Can Baseball Get More Interesting to Watch With Big Data?
(14 - 9:43pm, Sep 02)
Last: BDC

NewsblogAdam Jones says he was joking about 'airport' comment at social media event
(23 - 9:37pm, Sep 02)
Last: Esoteric

NewsblogPassan: 10 Degrees: Cole Hamels' trade value might be Phillies' lone bright spot
(5 - 9:34pm, Sep 02)
Last: Jim (jimmuscomp)

NewsblogSpector: Negative run differential doesn't tell whole story for first-place Cardinals
(8 - 8:21pm, Sep 02)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-2-2014
(40 - 8:14pm, Sep 02)
Last: The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee)

Page rendered in 0.1259 seconds
54 querie(s) executed