Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, August 20, 2012

Tango: Inconveniently inconvenient context

House of Bamboozled! It’s Tango vs Don Malcolm!

So, given that one of the teams has a lead, the SH is attempted by the team that is in the lead 62% of the time.  I’m not entirely sure of his point.

In The Book, Table 3, I show the “average number of runs scored to the end of the inning”, following each event.  It won’t surprise you that the three events that are followed with the FEWEST runs are: CS, K, and other outs.  And it won’t surprise you that the most runs are scored following the HR, 3B, 2B.  But right there, between reaching on error and getting a single is… the sac bunt.  That is, in the PA of the sac bunt, and all PA that follow, the average team scored 1.031 runs.

How is that possible?  Well, if we look solely at the base-out situation presented, and regardless of whether the batter bunts or not, we expected 1.058 runs to score.  So, this is why we get alot of runs scored in innings when you have a sac bunt: it’s because you happen to have a runner or two already on base!

And in Table 11, we get to the blogger’s point.  We see that following a sac bunt, the team wins 62.8% of the time.  But before the sac bunt, based on the inning, score, base-out, the chance of winning was 63.8%.  Again, we see what the blogger is saying: sac bunts happen to occur when the team already has a good chance of winning.

Edit: Link to the original article: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT SACRIFICE HITS. Jim

Repoz Posted: August 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, site news

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. TomH Posted: August 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4212501)
Does the figure 62.8% include only 'successful' sac bunts (out made, runner(s) advance), or does it include all attemtps, including base hits, ROE, FC, etc.?
   2. Shock Posted: August 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4212554)
The number the blogger quoted was 61.4% I am able to arrive at that same number looking only at successful sacrifices, so I assume that is what he was looking at as well.

The question is, how often does a team win when they're in a sacrifice situation and they don't sacrifice? That's tough to determine.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Downtown Bookie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 27 March 2017: Trump, Healthcare, and the Art of the Botched Deal
(53 - 12:26pm, Mar 27)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(880 - 12:19pm, Mar 27)
Last: PASTE does not get put on waivers in August

NewsblogSilverman: Christian Vazquez deserves starting catcher job | Boston Herald
(8 - 12:12pm, Mar 27)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogCleveland Indians 2017 opening day roster projections: Paul Hoynes | cleveland.com
(3 - 12:03pm, Mar 27)
Last: cmd600

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 3-27-2017
(10 - 11:56am, Mar 27)
Last: GGC for Sale

NewsblogSandy Alderson on Steven Matz’s latest injury: ‘It’s worrisome’ | Newsday
(7 - 11:41am, Mar 27)
Last: There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie)

NewsblogWong would rather be traded than platoon at second base
(9 - 11:36am, Mar 27)
Last: zonk

NewsblogGammons: Daniel Bard Is Willing To Endure The Frustration
(12 - 11:22am, Mar 27)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogMike Trout proposes umpire change
(18 - 11:16am, Mar 27)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogMatt Harvey hits 97 in best start of spring | MLB.com
(5 - 11:11am, Mar 27)
Last: Like Flies On Sherbert

NewsblogOT: NCAA March Madness 2017
(353 - 11:09am, Mar 27)
Last: Like Flies On Sherbert

NewsblogTigers will try to convert OF Anthony Gose to pitcher
(18 - 11:03am, Mar 27)
Last: Fernigal McGunnigle

NewsblogMets lefty Steven Matz to skip next start | MLB.com
(7 - 10:54am, Mar 27)
Last: There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie)

NewsblogCleveland Indians working on long-term deal with Francisco Lindor, confirms small child
(3 - 10:14am, Mar 27)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos

NewsblogFormer Phillies reliever Todd Frohwirth dead at 54
(5 - 10:02am, Mar 27)
Last: DanG

Page rendered in 0.7367 seconds
47 querie(s) executed