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Monday, July 16, 2018

Texas Rangers: ‘When that happens, I’m going to be nasty again’: Why Rangers’ Joey Gallo says banning shifts would get him back on track | SportsDay

I’m a fan of Gallo but this is just lame. (Not as lame as the start of Home Run Derby but lame nonetheless.)

Jim Furtado Posted: July 16, 2018 at 08:02 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: joey gallo, rangers, shifts

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   1. Man o' Schwar Posted: July 16, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5710902)
Yeah, this is weak stuff. Teams figured out a legal way to help make hitting harder - your job is to figure out a way to get more hits, not whine about it until they change the rule.

Otherwise, you have to let pitchers make the same kinds of requests. Raise the mound back to 15 inches. We should require thicker bat handles, shorter and heavier bats, smaller batters' boxes with greater enforcement (no more erasing the line with your cleats when you step into the box). Bring back the spit ball (and de-livelify it about 20% while you're at it).

Almost every change made in the last 50 years has been made with the intention of getting more offense into the games. Now that the defense has started to regain an advantage, the batters can't stop crying about how unfair it is. Managers have been employing shifts and playing guys out of position since the days of Ted Williams, and probably before that too. Yes it's more prevalent now, but shut up and hit. It wouldn't take a whole lot of slapped singles and doubles rolling past the 3rd base bag to get teams to stop shifting against you, but batters stubbornly refuse to change because HRs are what I do and Imma pull the ball and make the highlights with my Statcastian blasts!

And Gallo better stay off my lawn...
   2. Sunday silence Posted: July 16, 2018 at 08:34 PM (#5710908)
We'll stop whining about limiting rosters to 10 pitchers if you stop whining about the shift. Deal?
   3. Sunday silence Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:21 PM (#5710934)

we had an extended shift discussion a few days ago. THere's an issue that occurred to me that with a man on third do you still play the 3bman over to second. Here's Dozier taking a lead from third:



http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/07/15/2273043283/1531689244702/asset_2500K.mp4
   4. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:25 PM (#5710940)
we had an extended shift discussion a few days ago. THere's an issue that occurred to me that with a man on third do you still play the 3bman over to second. Here's Dozier taking a lead from third:

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/07/15/2273043283/1531689244702/asset_2500K.mp4


That is one seriously funny link.
   5. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 16, 2018 at 10:34 PM (#5710983)
Gallo is going to be nasty once he can again request a high ball or low ball.
   6. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 16, 2018 at 10:52 PM (#5710987)
Learn to hit the other way Joey, try going with the pitch every so often. It worked great for David "they shifted on me for 13 years" Ortiz.
   7. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:55 PM (#5711006)
Worst. Excuse. Ever.
   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:41 AM (#5711029)
There is no way that the banning of shifts should even be considered. It's just part of the evolution of the game. Teams will simply start considering hitters who can spray the ball to all fields equally instead of possibly some lumbering behemoth who is a dead pull hitter with the typical TTO result.

I'd love to see more guys who can spray the ball everywhere like Gwynn or Carew, lots of gappers, lots of doubles and triples; that's fun baseball.
   9. Sunday silence Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:15 AM (#5711080)
lower the mound: decrease KOs.

dampen ball: lower HRs.


Both of these have been proven to work. What is the problem?
   10. Shredder Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:50 AM (#5711093)
I said the same thing about allowing guys to pitch overhand, but they never changed the rule just to suit me, so here I am.
   11. Batman Posted: July 17, 2018 at 11:01 AM (#5711138)
And also gloves, including the catcher's. Only then will everybody be nasty again.
   12. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 17, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5711144)
Gallo's put the ball in play 162 times and gotten 37 hits out of it, a .228 BABIP. Make shifting illegal and wave a wand around and give him 11 more singles and he's around league average in BABIP (.296, 46 points above his career average). That gets him a line of 222/318/478. That's, what, an averagish offensive output? From a guy who's an offense-first corner player.

His problem is all of the strikeouts -- he's on pace for 220. Maybe he's been trying to hit around the shift and it's ruined his contact mojo. (TFA might say this, but I'm not bothering to read it). If that's the case then he should ignore it and go back to constantly trying to wail the #### out of the ball.

Or better yet, let market forces turn him into Wee Willie Keeler.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:56 PM (#5711508)
Javy Baez: As soon as we got to 2 balls for a walk and 6 strikes for a strikeout, I will walk 6% of the time!

lower the mound: decrease KOs.

dampen ball: lower HRs.


Both of these have been proven to work. What is the problem?


3.5 runs per game?

Also ... NL K-rates

1968 15.7%
1969 15.7% (walk rate up 1.7%, HR-rate up from 1.5 to 2.0)
1970 15.2% (walks and HRs up a bit further)
1971 14.3% (that took a while, walks and HRs also down)
1972 14.9% (walks up a bit, HRs stable)

In IP% terms that was 74%, 72%, 72%, 74%, 73%. In terms of scoring that was 3.43, 4.05, 4.52, 3.91, 3.91. BABIP: 277, 282, 287, 279, 277.

So scoring went up because BBs, HRs and BABIP went up, not because strikeouts went down. Strikeouts didn't appreciably decrease until 1971 which was accompanied by a drop in BB, HR, BABIP and scoring. IP% went down or remained stable.

I wouldn't consider a one-time experiment to "prove" anything plus we have expansion at the same time. But what data we have is that lowering the mound would have a minimal effect on K% but would have a short-term effect on BBs and HRs (as pitchers adjust or because of expansion?)

If we took that as our expectation, we might reduce K rates to 21%, maybe 20%. BBs and HRs would go up but you dampen the ball too and maybe HR rates stay stable. We see a bump in scoring to close to 5 r/g, mainly due to the walks. Then ... everything gets back on its longterm historical trend and K's start rising and batters swing for more HRs.

Note I'm too lazy to look at the AL but given things were so bad there by 71-72 that they decided to bring in the DH, I assume the tale is even more dire.
   14. Sunday silence Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:06 PM (#5711648)
are you seriously insisting that if KOs go down, offense wont be helped? I dont get your pt. here.

ALso what is IP%. I looked at that for a couple min. Is it % of inn. that had a BB? i give up.
   15. Sunday silence Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:09 PM (#5711651)

I wouldn't consider a one-time experiment to "prove" anything


what are you referring to here? the ball was livend in 1920 it was deadened in 1942 or whenever. it got livlier again afte rthe war. It also seems to have been made lively recently like a couple years ago as there was articles on independent testing. And it probably was livened in the late 80s..

Or are you referring to the mound height? Surely you dont think if we lower the mound nothing will happen?

not getting it.
   16. Sunday silence Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:24 PM (#5711663)
but you dampen the ball too and maybe HR rates stay stable.


no that's not the idea. the idea is to deaden the ball enuf to make HR rates go down. You're just making up total conjecture at this pt. No one is suggesting them to do a half assed job of it; deaden the ball some, and somehow it comes back and HRs are still flying out of the park at the same rate.

this is not what I'm saying at least be intellectally hooest.

. BBs and HRs would go up but


I dont know what walks would go up. Presumably with less HRs going out of the park (I know you think this wont happen with a deader ball) pitchers should feel better able to pitch to contact. Besides BB rates are probably the most stable of all these stats. they seem to have remaiend stable for what the past 50 years?

But what data we have is that lowering the mound would have a minimal effect on K% but would have a short-term effect on BBs and HRs...


A short term effect? Is this what you want to argue? How about long term? pitchers are not gonna be throwing wild pitches forever cause they dont realize the mound is shorter, what would it take 2 months? to get ready.

You're grasping at straws.

   17. Sunday silence Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5711666)
Then ... everything gets back on its longterm historical trend and K's start rising and batters swing for more HRs.


This is ridiculous, batters are already swinging as hard as they can. HR rates are at high for post Ww II era, or close to it.

Does anyone deny that the current generation of batters is Take and Rake

So we deaden the ball. Actually really deaden it. players start scoring with base hits and walks and stuff.

But you think, "oh no, batters will catch on and start swing for the fences and HRs will go up? why ? we deadened the ball, remmeber?
   18. SoSH U at work Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:45 PM (#5711678)
So we deaden the ball. Actually really deaden it. players start scoring with base hits and walks and stuff.


Or they don't score at all. The potential problem with a significantly deadened ball is that if it doesn't just make it harder to homer, but also to single, double and triple.
   19. Srul Itza Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:57 PM (#5711681)
That is one seriously funny link.


I do not understand why you would do that with a runner on third. It looks utterly stupid on its face.
   20. drdr Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:11 AM (#5711778)
If you want more non-hr scoring, you have to return to pre-WW2 stadium dimensions (or bigger), something like 370 down the line, 450 - 460 left and right center and 480+ dead center. That would significantly increase the area fielders have to cover, and ensure that only the very best hitters can hit bunch of homers. Everything done to lower the HR rate with today's dimensions would result in lowering all types of hits. Deaden the ball and we'll have again deadball era - 1-0 games, starters routinely under 2.00 ERA and similar.

Edit: typo.
   21. Sunday silence Posted: July 18, 2018 at 06:24 AM (#5711793)
The potential problem with a significantly deadened ball is that if it doesn't just make it harder to homer, but also to single, double and triple.


that is why you lower pitch velocity at the same time. Right?
   22. Sunday silence Posted: July 18, 2018 at 06:25 AM (#5711796)

If you want more non-hr scoring, you have to return to pre-WW2 stadium dimensions (or bigger),


Can you explain what was wrong with batter/pitcher equilibrium in the 70ss and 80s?
   23. . Posted: July 18, 2018 at 07:10 AM (#5711806)
If baseball hadn't been invented yet, and someone went into an angel investment or PE firm and proposed starting up an entertainment product featuring a clod like Joey Gallo hitting against a shift, they would get laughed out of the room.
   24. Nasty Nate Posted: July 18, 2018 at 07:57 AM (#5711821)
Only then will everybody be nasty again.
One step ahead of ya
   25. Rally Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:25 AM (#5711828)
we had an extended shift discussion a few days ago. THere's an issue that occurred to me that with a man on third do you still play the 3bman over to second. Here's Dozier taking a lead from third:


It made me think of a BTF meetup in Baltimore. Orioles were shifting on Ortiz even though Ellsbury was on third base. Some of us were talking about how much of a lead he could take, how easy it would be to steal home, etc. I don't think anything exciting happened on that particular play though.

That was the Manny Ramirez 500 homer game, and it was a decade ago.
   26. SoSH U at work Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5711852)
that is why you lower pitch velocity at the same time. Right?


It's possible that the two would offset each other just right, and you'd get the game you'd want. It's also possible, since you're not actually incentivizing contact in this situation, that you'd still get guys swinging as hard as they can every time, and you wouldn't.
   27. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:40 AM (#5711859)
If you want more non-hr scoring, you have to return to pre-WW2 stadium dimensions (or bigger), something like 370 down the line, 450 - 460 left and right center and 480+ dead center.

But that was only half the story. In the other half, you had foul pole distances of 296' (Yankee Stadium), 258' and 279' (the Polo Grounds), 297' (Ebbets Field), 281' (Baker Bowl), 310' (Sportsman's Park), 320' (Braves Field), 300' (Forbes Field), 328' (Crosley Field), and 290' (League Park).

Field dimensions are but one relatively small part of the explanation for the explosion of home runs. A much bigger explanation lies in the vast increase in size and strength of the average Major League ballplayer, along with the unshaming of the strikeout and the analytics-based worship of the launch angle.
   28. PreservedFish Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:23 AM (#5711884)
If baseball hadn't been invented yet, and someone went into an angel investment or PE firm and proposed starting up an entertainment product featuring a clod like Joey Gallo hitting against a shift, they would get laughed out of the room.


Joey Gallo isn't a clod, he's a huge, chiseled, immensely powerful man - with one of the strongest arms in baseball, by the way - which makes him quite similar to the superstar goliaths of football and basketball that are supposedly dominating the American sporting landscape, or to the star sluggers that supposedly brought baseball back from the brink of disaster in the late 90s. I see no evidence that America wants a league of Placido Polancos.

The "shift" is just a modified defense, like a double-team a nickel. It's fair and it's beautiful, it's flexible and creative, and it actually incentives flexible, creative offense, a fact that the fuddiest duddies on this site routinely fail to understand. I see no evidence that America prefers hidebound sports thinking.

If you don't like Gallo, shouldn't you like the shift? He is a victim of the shift. The shift makes Gallo less likely to keep his job.

Now, Gallo may just be the Rik Smits to David Ortiz's Shaquille O'Neal, but not everyone can be an immensely likable star, can they?
   29. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5711890)
Joey Gallo isn't a clod, he's a huge, chiseled, immensely powerful man - with one of the strongest arms in baseball, by the way
Sounds like somebody's got a crush.
   30. PreservedFish Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5711892)
My arm's been getting stronger too, if you catch my drift.
   31. Man o' Schwar Posted: July 18, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5711922)
My arm's been getting stronger too, if you catch my drift.

Dear Penthouse - I never thought this could happen to a sabermetrician like me. I was watching a game from behind the first base dugout, when I looked up from my spreadsheets and saw Joey Gallo staring in my direction. I don't have to tell you, I noticed his chiseled body and strong arm, plus his massive ISO, right away...

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