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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Uhh…he blew up my fantasy team like we used to blow up Chatty Cathy dolls with strategically placed M-80’s?
Pro-rating his current season numbers to 600 ABs for easier comparison with last year, Troy has put up this line: .252-12-70-73-2. What’s interesting is that this looks very similar to what I, and I’m sure many others, had projected for him in 2007. What many people might not know is that except for the 7 ABs he had at Triple-A during a rehab assignment this year, he has never played at that level. In fact, he’s only had more than 100 ABs at one minor league level! That came at Double-A when he had 423 ABs with an .838 OPS and 13 home runs, while hitting .291. Although these are decent totals, they certainly didn’t suggest the kind of season he ended up having for the Rockies in 2007.
Looking back at last year versus this year, there are many more similarities than differences. Actually, besides the decline in power, one could actually make a legitimate argument that Tulo has been a better hitter this year. His walk rate has inched slightly higher and his contact rate has dramatically improved, rising from 79% to 86%. His batted ball profile is almost identical to last year, yet his BABIP has fallen from .336 to .278. Hitting line drives at a 20% rate means the .336 BABIP from last year was very reasonable and so this year’s .278 seems to be just bad luck.
Repoz
Posted: September 23, 2008 at 12:14 PM | 9 comment(s)
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1. Paul The Paranoid Android Posted: September 23, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#2951107)Whatever the reason, there's just an enormous split between his two halves this season, starting with the fact that his BABIP was .175 in the first half, and .351 in the second half. His overall second half numbers of .317/.381/.455 are actually an improvement on his rookie year.
Also, there was a lot of talk last year that Tulo was simply a creation of Coors Field. On the road last year, he hit just .256/.327/.393. On the road in 2008, those numbers have held steady, at .261/.321/.398. It's at home that the collapse has come.
God. I hate this silly reasoning.
He got hurt... and then didn't hit the ball very well when he got back... maybe there is a connection?
Yes, walk rate up a tick. More interestingly K rate down substantially (or contact rate up).
But that's the "problem". K-rate down substantially but BA down substantially, HR rate down substantially. To do those with a big drop in K-rate, you ain't hitting the ball hard anymore. On-contact numbers: 370/610 in 2007; 295/454 in 2008 (that is awful, like Ronny Cedeno career numbers awful). That's not "bad luck", that's a different approach to hitting. Well, OK, it could be "bad luck" but it's the bad luck of a guy who's really 330/530 on-contact following a year of good luck. (Note, if the new K-rate is real, that would put him at 285/450 overall and somewhere around a 105 OPS+ so a very good player; use the career K-rate and it's 265/425 which is fine for a SS.)
As MM1f suggests, the change is probably injury-related. If someone wants to say "Tulo was hurt last year and I expect him to bounce back to his 2007 self", that's reasonable. If they want to cite the fact that he's been hitting well for the last month or so as further evidence, I can dig it. But do not make the argument that this year hasn't been a disaster, didn't show a very different hitter, etc.
So who would you rather have, Tulo or Drew ?
Of course, I am biased, but I'd take Tulowitzki for the following reasons:
1. Tulowitzki is two years younger.
2. Tulowitzki is the superior defensive player.
3. Their career OPS+ are still virtually identical (95 for Drew, 94 for Tulo).
4. Even with Drew's breakout year and Tulo's flop, their OBPs are also about the same this year (.328 for Drew, .323 for Tulo).
Drew's big advantage is that his career is progressing in the right direction, whereas Tulowitzki appears to be going backward, but even there, Tulo's second half has been very strong. Going forward, I expect them to be roughly even as offensive players, with Tulowitzki maybe having a small advantage, but I also think Tulo will be a perennial Gold Glove candidate, while Drew will be more of a league-average defender.
Prior to 2007, I don't think anyone would have thought that Tulo would be the superior offensive player compared to Drew, even by a small advantage. 2007 of course changed that perception. But 2008 should flip perceptions/expectations back to the way they were before 2007. The age component is noted of course, but I don't think it's the overriding factor here.
Defensively, Drew is probably less than a league average defender, so he will have to continue to hit at least as well as 2008 going forward. While I would not argue for a second that Tulo isn't the superior defender, it's notable that his fielding bible +/- went from +35 in 2007 to just +3 in 2008, (ranked 13th) Drew is -6, and ranked 21st now. Tulo is better, but I'd be surprised if he ever put up quite such outstanding defensive statistics as he did in 2007
I hate to be the guy always saying nothing to see here, but I really don't see a lot to see here. Just because we don't like the blanket "luck & sample size" explanation doesn't make it any less accurate most of the time.
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