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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
BTW…Updating my BBWAA “promised” ballot collecting gizmo.
After going through 107 ballots (18.7%)
30 - WILL vote for Bonds/Clemens (5.2%...enough already to stay on ballot!)
44 - WILL NOT vote for Bonds/Clemens
33 - UNDECIDED (on their part or mine)
Darrell Evans was almost an exact contemporary of Tony Perez, as the two players careers overlapped from 1969-1986. Evans, one of the most underrated players in the game’s history, may or may not have been better than Perez. Evans’ slash numbers were similar .248./.341/.431 for an OPS+ of 119. Evans came to bat about 150 times fewer than Perez and, significantly for Hall of Fame voters, had about 200 fewer RBIs, while hitting 35 more home runs. However, Evans spent his prime playing for some offensively challenged Brave and Giant teams while Perez spent his prime batting in the middle of the Big Red Machine. Evans was a more valuable defender as a third baseman who played a little at first, while Perez did the reverse. Baseball Reference awards Evans 6.8 more WAR than Perez while Fan Graphs gives them both the same amount of WAR.
...Fans of Darrell Evans can, presumably, understand that there man is not quite worthy of the Hall of Fame, but the election of Tony Perez makes it harder to stomach. Replace Evans and Perez with Dennis Martinez and Jack Morris, who is likely to get elected next year, or Tim Raines and Jim Rice, and the reason the Hall of Fame matters should be even more clear.
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1. Moeball Posted: January 24, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4045077)1B-Hernandez
2B-Grich/Whitaker
3B-Da. Evans/Nettles?
SS-Trammell
LF-Brian/Giles/Downing or Roy White?
CF-Murphy/Dwayne or Dale
RF-Dewey Evans
Maybe these guys aren't HOFers, but wouldn't this lineup produce some championships?
People don't realize just how good they were, often both offensively and defensively...
People don't realize just how good they were, often better than average both offensively and defensively...
There are actually enough guys to put together 3 teams.
Maybe also Simmons or Tenace at catcher, Cash at first, Buddy Bell to give a right-handed bat at third...
Who should the pitchers be? Guys who were way better in context than people realized...Mussina seems kind of obvious but he may actually get into the HOF so maybe not...Tommy Bridges?
I'm biased, Ted Simmons is my favorite player growing up, so I'll take him.
The Drew thing was just because I had just looked at it before coming to this thread. I knew he was good, and that his rate was pretty good, but 5.4 war per 162 games played is damn good, even for only 6100 or so plate appearances.
I don't know; I think the HOF has made far more sins of inclusion than they have with omission (current ballot excluded, of course).
Hall of Merit, Not Hall of Fame:
SPs
Bob Caruthers
David Cone
Wes Ferrell
Billy Pierce
Rick Reuschel
Bret Saberhagen
Dave Stieb
Cs
Charlie Bennett
Bill Freehan
Cal McVey
Ted Simmons
Joe Torre
Quincy Trouppe
Deacon White
1Bs
Will Clark
Keith Hernandez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmiero
Joe Start
2Bs
Ross Barnes
Cupid Childs
Bobby Grich
Willie Randolph
Hardy Richardson
Lou Whitaker
3Bs
Dick Allen
John Beckwith
Ken Boyer
Darrell Evans
Heinie Groh
Stan Hack
Graig Nettles
Ezra Sutton
SSs
Bill Dahlen
Jack Glasscock
Home Run Johnson
Dick Lundy
Dobie Moore
Dickey Pearce
Alan Trammell
LFs
Charley Jones
Charlie Keller
Sherry Magee
Minnie Minoso
Tim Raines
Jimmy Sheckard
Harry Stovey
CFs
Pete Browning
George Gore
Paul Hines
Alejandro Oms
Lip Pike
Jimmy Wynn
RFs
Dwight Evans
Joe Jackson
Pete Rose
Reggie Smith
DHs
Edgar Martinez
C: Ted Simmons
1B: Mark McGwire
2B: Bobby Grich
3B: Dick Allen
SS: Bill Dahlen (If you want players who played within the last 100 years, then Trammell)
LF: Tim Raines
CF: Paul Hines (If you want to stick to 20th Century MLB, then Jimmy Wynn)
RF: Pete Rose
DH: Edgar Martinez. But there are some other guys who can hit.
SP: none of the seven pitchers listed ranked in the top 25 on the combined-era ranking vote. Take all seven and assign a couple to the bullpen. (Note that Caruthers and Ferrell can be used as PH.)
C: Jorge Posada (possibly Mike Piazza, but let's be optimistic here)
1B: Mark McGwire (I think Bagwell and Thomas will get in)
2B: Jeff Kent
3B: Scott Rolen
SS: Nomar, or Miguel Tejada if you're more into the longevity thing
LF: Manny B Manny (possibly Barry Bonds, but again let's be optimistic here)
CF: Jim Edmonds
RF: Larry Walker or Sammy Sosa
DH: Edgar Martinez
OK, the pitchers are harder because I don't have any real sense of how the writers will treat Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz (much less Clemens). But they've got at least the beginning of a good staff with Kevin Brown, David Cone, and Kevin Appier, and a decent closer in Billy Wagner. Toss in a Finley, Pettitte, Wells or somesuch if need be.
Why put Dick Allen at 3B? And you missed Jeff Bagwell and Larry Walker.
Steroid-Era-Players-I-don't-think-will-get-elected (by the writers) team:
I don't think you can be too optimistic about Bonds or Clemens. I'd also put A-Rod at short or 3B and include Sheffield in the discussion for RF alongside Walker and Sosa.
My gut hunch is that Smoltz sails in on the first ballot, Schilling gets in but it takes a few years, and Mussina hangs around on the ballot for a long time, maybe getting in after 10-15 years in a year when there's a relatively weak ballot.
Personally, by the end of their careers, I saw Smoltz, Schilling, Mussina, and Kevin Brown as all very, very similar... with Brown having the weakest case because he loses a few points for postseason compared to the others, but still over the line to get in. The idea that they'll receive drastically different treatments from the BBWAA is absurd, but likely.
1B: Norm Cash, Jack Clark.
2B: Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker.
SS: Bill Dahlen, Vern Stephens.
3B: Dick Allen, Bob Elliott.
OF: Indian Bob Johnson, Sherry Magee, Minnie Minoso, Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, Gavvy Cravath, Paul Hines.
C: Ted Simmons, Wally Schang.
SP/Long Relief: Tommy Bridges, Wes Ferrell, Dave Stieb, Luis Tiant, Urban Shocker, Tommy John.
Short Relief (probably less good HoF arguments): Dan Quisenberry, Sparky Lyle.
I'd love to find room for Darrell Evans and Keith Hernandez here as well, but I needed to have a couple relief pitchers. Subject to change without notice. Thoughts welcome.
S1 Bob Caruthers
S2 Bret Saberhagen
S3Rick Reuschel
S4Billy Pierce
S5David Cone
Setup man and PH Wes Ferrell
Closer Dave Stieb
Here' the lineup:
c Charlie Bennett
1b Mark McGwire
2b Bobby Grich
3b Deacon White (generally counted as a catcher, but I end up assigning him to third because of how few games he played at catcher. If treated as a catcher, I don't know how to split the hairs between him and Simmons with any certainty)
ss Alan Trammel (if players were chosen for their whole career totals, it would be Dahlen)
lf Harry Stovey (or I'd move him to first and use McGwire as the DH and put Reggie Smith in RF)
cf Jimmy Wynn
rf Joe Jackson
DH Edgar Martinez or Mark McGwire
supersub Pete Rose
The best lineup, making only minor adjustments for playing era statistical differences:
Wynn cf
Stovey lf/1b
Jackson rf
McGwire 1b/DH
Edgar Martinez DH (or Reggie Smith in rf)
Grich 2b
White 3b/c
Trammell ss
Bennett c
Chance of winning the pennant? Over 90%, I'd say.
- Brock Hanke
To be fair, Rice was an outstanding player for three years (1977-79) and superior, truly dominant as a hitter in 1978. Drew's career-high season OPS+ (2004 for Atlanta) is coincidentally 157, the same as Rice's in 1978, so you might argue that their demonstrated true-talent level was similar. But Rice played every day for three straight years at close to that level. He had a much better sustained peak/prime.
The career WAR comparison looks like it does because Drew was an excellent player for a long time at a low rate of playing time, while Rice spent many years as not much more than an ordinary left fielder. It's probably valid to say that you'd take Drew at the start of a career if you had a choice; WAR is WAR no matter how or how fast you accumulate it. But Rice voters didn't support him because of career accumulations. Rice fell short of 400 HR and 1,500 RBI; you can't really look at his career totals even in very traditional terms and say "OMG teh HOF." He's in as the traditionalist's version of a guy who looked like a HOFer at his peak (which they thought at the time, and which he really did).
I think you're underestimating how good an all HoM/not HoF team would be. Forget that. Leave out the HoMers as well. How about a team like this, catching these players at or near their peak?
C: Javy Lopez
1B: John Olerud
2B: Billy Doran
SS: Nomar Garciaparra
3B: Adrian Beltre
LF: Jose Cruz, Sr.
CF: Ray Lankford
RF: Tim Salmon
DH: Hal McRae
SP: Frank Viola
SP: Orel Hershiser
SP: Tommy John
SP: Frank Tanana
SP: Ron Guidry
RP: any of a dozen guys in the short but brilliant category: Eric Gagne, Duane Ward, et al.
That's a pennant-winning team.
What about a team of the worst Hall of Famers? I think they still would be.
I don't think it's that absurd, actually. In the case of borderline players, they need to figure out some way to draw the in/out line, and narrative is as good a way as any. If Jack Morris really was a borderline player, it wouldn't bother me at all if game 7 put him over the top (but he's not even borderline, so it will bother me when he goes in). As to the players you mentioned, Smoltz and Schilling have some of the best post season numbers ever; Brown has the Mitchell Report. I'm okay with the voters using that as the distinction (and I'm definitely not against obviously qualified steroid players making the HOF, but on a borderline guy, it's as good a way of setting the dividing line as any other).
Mussina is a tougher case. He doesn't have a CYA or the saves like Smoltz, the postseason numbers of Smoltz or Schilling, or the peak numbers of Schilling or Brown. Basically, he's got no narrative at all. But he may have the most overall career value of the four.
C Schalk or Ferrell
1B Kelly
2B Mazeroski
3B Kell
SS Jackson
OF McCarthy
OF L.Waner
OF Brock
P Marquard
P Hunter
P Chesbro
P Pennock
It's an interesting proposition. If you try to suppress offense, you get some great defense (put Aparicio in for Travis Jackson, for instance), and even the worst bunch of hitters you can collect is a decent offensive unit. The real "problem" with trying to weaken the team is the pitchers. Any pitcher elected to the HOF is going to be really, really damn good at his peak; the "mistakes" tend to be guys elected for unsustained peaks. A lot of people deride Dizzy Dean as a HOFer, and he didn't have much of a career record. But if I get him as my ace in his prime, he's going to be a championship-quality #1 (as indeed he was in real life).
Yeah, if you're looking at any of these guys at their peak (including position players), then it's going to be a damn good team regardless what undeserving all-stars you choose. And if you're looking at them at their worst, well then you could probably make just as bad a team of deserving Hall of Famers as undeserving ones. Steve Carlton, for instance, would make an outstanding anti-ace.
You should take a look at Reuschel for your rotation ... not sure he makes it over John and Tiant but it would be close. And look at John Franco for reliever.
Franco 1984-88: 447 IP, 163 ERA+ and then added, through age 39, 12 "modern" seasons of 139 ERA+. Tough call between him and Lyle if you have only two spots.
Both the newer stats (-120 TZ) and standard ones (1.86 range in RF, compared to 2.19 lg Avg, 43 assists to 44 errors) confirm this.
rWAR has it as not really even close regarding Aparicio and Jackson if we're putting together an all-9 team; there's no way that Aparicio would be better than Jackson.
Not really, Kent was viewed as even a bigger ass than Bonds, with the exception he didn't mind talking to the press. Kent is a Hornsby level bad of a clubhouse presence. He's strictly a stat candidate, all of his narrative is negative.
Agreed. I think he deserves to make it, but since there are much better players from the "steroid era" that aren't even coming close to election, I don't think Kent has much of a chance. I actually wouldn't be too surprised if he got a Juan Gonzalez level of support and fell off the ballot his first or second year.
Also, if steroid suspicions without evidence are enough to keep Bagwell (and likely Piazza and Sosa next year) out of the HOF, what about a guy like Kent who was teammates with Bonds, Clemens, Pettitte, and Bagwell and put up a HOF career almost entirely in his 30's?
Kent could be a VC pick a few decades down the road, but I don't see the BBWAA ever selecting him.
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