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1. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 01, 2007 at 11:57 PM (#2602895)There, I beat you all to it.
I'll grant you the walks, but in a neutral park he don't hit too many doubles. His away-split this year was .282/.349/.380, with only 14 2B's. Pedroia's "power", such as it is, is a creation of Fenway Park and its friendly environment for high BIP, low-power hitters.
Just dangling it out there, huh?
What fun would this place be if I didn't?
Well, not really, but he had such a fantastic year. Highest EqA in baseball (non-Bonds division) and 3rd in the NL in VORP. Sure, Matt Holliday was worth more when you consider defense, but Chipper should be better than ninth.
Quite funny. True. The NL had a banner year for rookies.
Agreed. Chipper is quickly becoming a forgotten 1st ballot HOF 3rd basemen. If you haven't checked out his resume lately, take a look. He might start making a case for best 3B ever, if not, certainly top 3.
Well, I took your Cano bait, didn't I? :-)
Option J?
Holy crap! Did Marty McFly and his DeLorean accidentally destroy all trace of Mike Schmidt, Eddie Matthews, George Brett, and Brooks Robinson? Doc Brown said that could happen!
Right, and Yadier Molina is a slugger.
Chipper is ahead of Robinson if you grade his defence as average to slightly below average, not horrendous like BPro makes it out to be.
On rate stats, he is ahead of Schmidt, but he still has to hit his "decline" phase. Having the best OPS by 3B for 2 years running helps.
He is already on par with Brett/Matthews, and how you rank them depends on who you grew up watching.
Still, thats pretty select company.
A-Rod's transition to 3B is also going to gum the whole thing up, too.
Jones is more durable than given credit for. I realize this subject is entirely what have you done lately. But Chipper had +600 PA in 2007. He also went 9 straight seasons with +153 games played starting with his first full season in the majors.
2005 and 2006 were his only seasons he missed significant time.
He is starting to make a case for best 3rd basemen of all time as he has entered the top 5-6 grouping.
And if Santo isn't in the HoF I'm not sure you can say Jones a slam dunk first rounder.... or will be five years after he retires and Rodriguez is still playing and Wright, Cabrera, Braun, Zimmerman, Gordon are all still in their (relative) primes.
As for the "controversy"... if Utley doesn't miss those 20 games there's no contest. He'd be as unanimous as Rodriguez in the AL.
Led the league in RCAA and RCAP, too.
Through age 35:
Jones: 1895 g (1436 at 3B), 425 doubles, 386 HR, 1296 R, 1299 RBI, 134/43 SB, 307/403/546, 143 OPS+
Brett: 2013 g (1688 at 3B), 488 doubles, 255 HR, 1233 R, 1231 RBI, 161/80 SB, 312/378/505, 142 OPS+
Brett had 1 very good, one outstanding and 3 league average years left in him. He hadn't really been a 3B since 33.
Chipper is about 500 games behind Schmidt & Mathews (nearly 750 behind them as a 3B) and 800 (!) behind Brett. So he needs at least 4 pretty full seasons with minimal decline to catch those guys in career value as a hitter. Schmidt presumably kicks his butt on defense but Brett was no whiz and I've always assumed (just cuz he was a slugger) that Mathews was nothing special with the glove.
Brooks is a whole other beastie and I don't think we can possibly compare them without good historical defensive stats. Boggs I will leave to someone else.
Chipper's certainly in the discussion ... but he's a lot of games behind those guys so can't match their career value. And those guys all had great peaks as well so he makes up little if any there. He's certainly not as bad as BPro says but he's likely not making up any ground on any of these guys defensively. And he's well behind Schmidt and Mathews in games played at 3B and it seems unlikely he'll catch them there. So right now, I don't think you can make an argument for the top 3 all time, though he is getting very close to Brett's career value as a 3B.
Jones vs. Santo is all about the defensive difference too. It's almost certainly not large enough for Santo to beat him on peak (at least anything beyond a few years) but might be enough to roughly equalize them in career value. But when we looked at that last year, they were maybe even so Jones should be ahead even on career value at this point despite the gap in games.
But look at his age 23 comps. He has a 10% chance of making the Hall of Fame and a 10% chance of rooming with Yogi Berra!
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