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Thursday, December 27, 2012

The 2013 Hall Of Fame Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

The 2013 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Updated 1:55 ~ 194 Full Ballots ~ (33.9% of vote ~ based on last year)

70.1 - Biggio
60.3 - Piazza
59.8 - Raines
59.3 - Bagwell
59.3 - J. Morris
45.4 - Bonds
44.3 - Clemens
39.2 - Schilling
38.1 - L. Smith
37.6 - Trammell
35.6 - E. Martinez
20.1 - McGriff
18.6 - D. Murphy
16.5 - L. Walker
14.4 - McGwire
13.4 - S. Sosa
12.9 - Raffy
  8.8 - Mattingly
———————————
  3.1 - Lofton
  2.1 - Bernie Williams
  1.7 - P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
  0.5 - D. Wells
  0.5 - J. Franco
  0.5 - S. Alomar Jr.
  0.5 - S. Green

Repoz Posted: December 27, 2012 at 01:08 PM | 832 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof

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   601. bobm Posted: January 08, 2013 at 11:59 PM (#4342559)
EDIT: Roger Clemens age-based similar players (through age 33)

Sim         Player From   To Yrs  WAR   W   L  WL%  ERA   G  GS GF  CG SHO SV     IP    H    R   ER  HR  BB   SO ERA+
     Roger Clemens 1984-1996  13 77.8 192 111 .634 3.06 383 382  0 100  38  0 2776.0 2359 1045  943 194 856 2590  144 
944  Dwight Gooden 1984-1998  14 50.1 185 103 .642 3.33 377 374  1  68  24  1 2580.7 2318 1044  956 169 843 2150  113 
919      Bob Welch 1978-1990  13 39.6 176 109 .618 3.16 396 371 16  54  27  8 2513.0 2273  981  882 194 801 1714  114 
907    Tom Glavine 1987-1999  13 49.2 187 116 .617 3.38 399 399  0  45  18  0 2659.7 2529 1110 1000 178 900 1659  120 
904*    Bob Gibson 1959-1969  11 58.4 167 110 .603 2.76 349 311 17 166  42  4 2522.7 2061  882  774 170 861 2119  134 
903*    Tom Seaver 1967-1978  12 83.9 219 127 .633 2.51 423 417  5 188  47  1 3239.7 2568  991  905 232 888 2756  139 
894    Lon Warneke 1930-1942  13 43.8 188 115 .620 3.18 415 332 55 188  30 13 2680.0 2628 1115  947 172 720 1104  120 
894    Greg Maddux 1986-1999  14 74.1 221 126 .637 2.81 436 432  3  93  28  0 3068.7 2761 1104  959 157 691 2160  144 
889    Jack Morris 1977-1988  12 34.3 177 118 .600 3.59 370 348 10 133  21  0 2622.7 2347 1136 1045 272 930 1703  112 
888   Mike Mussina 1991-2002  12 56.2 182 102 .641 3.54 355 355  0  51  20  0 2454.0 2305 1026  966 257 557 1931  128 
887 Pedro Martinez 1992-2005  14 79.1 197  84 .701 2.72 419 352 23  46  17  3 2513.0 1905  835  759 194 662 2861  166 
   602. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:08 AM (#4342562)
Once the full ESPN guys come in, is this going to be the most votes run through the Gizmo? It's already exceeded last year's total.

Edit: Oh, and Bob, if you can throw a quick return in there before Gibby in the next six minutes, the next 98 posters would surely appreciate it.
   603. Danny Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:10 AM (#4342564)
Bad juju to break a page with the first comment...
   604. bobm Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:13 AM (#4342565)
Whew!
   605. Peter Farted Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:21 AM (#4342569)
MLB.com seems to have a personal vendetta against Schilling. One vote in 16 ballots.
   606. Kruger23 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:25 AM (#4342572)
Masserotti HOF ballot from Boston Herald: Martinez, Bonds, Clemens---check the video

http://www.csnne.com/baseball-boston-redsox/redsox-talk/One-mans-PED-free-Hall-of-Fame-ballot?blockID=821323&feedID=10430
   607. John Northey Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:35 AM (#4342575)
Jeff Blair has been a bit odd on his choices. He has said he is a small hall guy in the past and no question Bonds, Clemens, and Piazza fit most definitions small hall guys could have. Raines and Walker I think are more a pro-Canada bias (Raines as an Expo, Walker as an actual Canadian) as both were great and HOF worthy but neither fit a small hall (IE: top 5 or so per position) imo. Still, hate to see any ballot without Biggio as he is the best hope to get someone elected.
   608. FenwayFrank Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:43 AM (#4342577)
Boston Globe writers votes:

Peter Abraham: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilng, Alan Trammell.
Nick Cafardo: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.
Dan Shaughnessy: Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell.
Bob Ryan: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling.

Shaughnessy votes for Schilling. The mind boggles.
   609. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:44 AM (#4342578)
Fingers also had a lot going for him--the MVP/CYA, 3 WS titles, a 1.35 ERA in 33 WS IP, a cool name, a sweet 'stache--that Smith doesn't.


Gossage and Morris had the stache.
   610. John Northey Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:45 AM (#4342579)
At 151 we are below the +/-7% level now (6.85%), so with Biggio at 68.2% his statistical 19 times out of 20 max is now 75.05% or just barely over the line as a best case. Morris, even if you double the margin would be marginal now at 62.9%, double = 13.7%, so max of 76.6% if you figure a very, very strong bias. IMO that is too much to assume so I'd bet strongly on no one getting in.

My hope now is to see Raines, Bagwell and Piazza over 60% thus upping the odds of a bandwagon effect for them. Also to see Morris go down sub-60% so we don't have to think too much about him next year.
   611. themiddle54 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:56 AM (#4342585)
Did everyone see Wallace Matthews' ballot? Not that I recommend reading his drivel, but at least he voted for Biggio and Piazza.


Matthews has turned in one of my favorite rationalizations.

I won't vote for cheaters.
Cheaters are bad.
People who took steroids to get a strength/health advantage are cheaters.
No to cheaters.

I vote for the guy who measures only 1.04 Altuves but had a 60% jump in home runs at age 38 which he improved on at age 39, plus one of the two guys we 100% for sure know took steroids to get on the field faster and stronger because we saw him canonized for it on national TV in the Bloody Sock Battle Of Twenty Aught Four, and Mike Piazza.
   612. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:02 AM (#4342586)
Dan Shaughnessy: Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell.


Shaughnessy wrote after Clemens left Boston in 1996 that Clemens needed "four more good years" to make the Hall.

   613. FenwayFrank Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:09 AM (#4342588)
("edit"/"save" doesn't seem to be taking for some reason...)

Another Boston Globe writer: Tony Massarotti: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez.
   614. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:18 AM (#4342589)
Bill Madden:

And yet [Biggio] may well be denied by having played in the steroids era, and by association with his Houston Astros teammates Jeff Bagwell and Clemens. Bagwell, like Piazza, never tested positive for steroids, was never named in the Mitchell Report and has vehemently and repeatedly denied ever using PEDs. Yet he continues to be a steroid suspect, which explains why, despite a .297 career average, 449 homers and eight 100-run and 100-RBI seasons, he was well shy of election at 56% last year.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/madden-hall-fame-facing-havoc-peds-article-1.1236097#ixzz2HS6wwdOE


What a hoot. I've heard of guilt by association, but usually the party being associated with is itself guilty. Here, we have guilt by association with Bagwell, who himself is guilty by association with the Steroids Era.
   615. Kruger23 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:22 AM (#4342590)
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel HOF ballots


Tom Haudricourt: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa.

Michael Hunt: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds.

Mike Hart: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell

Bill Windler: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.
   616. Kruger23 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:27 AM (#4342593)
Jim Alexander, California Press Democrat said he refused to vote for anyone in the steroid era. So here is his ballot:

Morris, Raines, Trammell, Smith

Relive the 80s much??
   617. Danny Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:34 AM (#4342595)
Alexander's ballot:

– Jack Morris, who doesn’t get much love from the numbers crowd but was the guy you most wanted pitching a big game. (And that’s not just me talking. That’s players and managers of the era.)

– Tim Raines, whose skills at getting on base and stealing bases (he’s fifth on the all time list with 808) were underappreciated for way too many years.

(And yes, I know Raines was one of those who battled a cocaine addiction early in his career. He was hardly alone in early ’80s baseball, and he did clean himself up. But it brings up another question: Do you give guys who used coke a pass and come down on guys who used steroids and HGH because those had more influence on the game on the field? Or do you say recreational drug use had its own insidious effect on the game? Again, I’m having trouble with that distinction.)

– Alan Trammell, another player who has been horrendously underappreciated. If you voted for Barry Larkin, which I did, and you look at Trammell’s numbers, how do you leave him off?

– Lee Smith, the all-time leader in saves. Say what you want about the “save” statistic, but Smith’s durability, consistency and dominance pass my eyeball test.

As for Bonds, Clemens and the rest? Come back next year. Maybe by then I’ll have figured this out.
   618. SavoyBG Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:40 AM (#4342596)
All 50+ WAR guys who were one and done (excluding those banned from baseball):

Jack Clark - 50.1 WAR, 1.5% in 1998.
Ron Cey - 50.4 WAR, 1.9% in 1993.
Jose Cruz - 51 WAR, 0.4% in 1994.
Chet Lemon - 52 WAR, 0.2% in 1996.
Robin Ventura - 52.3 WAR, 1.3% in 2010.
Jimmy Wynn - 53.1 WAR, 0.0% in 1983.
Will Clark - 53.2 WAR, 4.4% in 2006.
John Olerud - 53.7 WAR, 0.7% in 2011.
Darrell Evans - 55.1 WAR, 1.7% in 1995.
Willie Davis - 56.8 WAR, 0.0% in 1985 (didn't even appear on ballot).
Sal Bando -57.1 WAR, 0.7% in 1987.
Jack Glasscock - 59.2 WAR, 2.6% in 1936.
Reggie Smith - 60.8 WAR, 0.7% in 1988.
Buddy Bell - 61.6 WAR, 1.7% in 1995.
Willie Randolph - 63.0 WAR, 1.1% in 1998.
Bobby Grich - 67.3 WAR, 2.6% in 1992.
Lou Whitaker - 71.4 WAR, 2.9% in 2001.

Pitchers (just including pitching WAR):

Jack Powell - 51.3 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Kevin Appier - 51.9 WAR, 0.2% in 2010.
Frank Tanana - 52.6 WAR, 0.0% in 1999.
Jerry Koosman - 53.1 WAR, 0.9% in 1991.
Dave Stieb - 53.5 WAR, 1.4% in 2004.
Chuck Finley - 54.3 WAR, 0.2% in 2008.
Tony Mullane - 55.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Bret Saberhagen - 56.0 WAR, 1.3% in 2007.
Charlie Buffinton - 57.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
David Cone - 58.2 WAR, 3.9% in 2009.
Tommy Bond - 60.8 WAR, 1.3% in 1936.
Kevin Brown - 64.5 WAR, 2.1% in 2011.
Rick Reuschel - 64.6 WAR, 0.4% in 1997.
Bobby Mathews - 65.6 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Jim McCormick - 72.2 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
   619. JE (Jason) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:53 AM (#4342598)
Michael Hunt: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds.

Mike Hunt has a neatly trimmed ballot.
   620. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:00 AM (#4342602)
Bill Windler: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.


That's just about a perfect ballot for me. I can't immediately think of anyone I'd replace on it.
   621. JE (Jason) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:06 AM (#4342604)
That's just about a perfect ballot for me. I can't immediately think of anyone I'd replace on it.

IIRC, Poz's ballot this year had Walker, not McGwire.
   622. Don Malcolm Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:11 AM (#4342606)
What about 1996 (i.e., the last time no one went in)? The only eventual Hall of Famers on the ballot at that time were:
Niekro
Perez
Rice
Sutter
Sutton

Right there, you've got Niekro, who IMHO clearly belongs in, but does have just a 115 ERA+ (hampered by a long decline phase) and can be viewed as a compiler--plus four other guys who are pretty clearly near the HOF cutoff in my view. Among others on the ballot that year were Ron Santo and Dick Allen--who may belong in the HOF, but are not no-doubters.

It's not hard for me to see how a reasonable voter could have sent in a blank ballot that year. That, of course, is not THIS year.


Nice research, but it would be more impressive if you'd actually found someone who'd turned in a blank ballot in '96. I don't think very many folks were thinking about "compilers" at that point in time; that term didn't come into vogue until there was a more organized HOM effort. One of the math whizzes here could probably calculate the odds of a blank ballot in that year with the three guys scoring in the 60s and the low overall vote/ballot...it might actually work AGAINST the idea of a blank ballot. Whereas if you get rid of the blank ballots we're going to have this time, the vote/ballot total will be the highest since the early 80s, and the increase from '12 to '13 in terms of vote/ballot will be at least as high as it was from '98 to '99 (when Ryan, Brett, Yount and Fisk all debuted).
   623. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:11 AM (#4342607)
My prediction:

Biggio    70.5%
Morris    68.9%
Raines    61.5%
Bagwell   60.0%
Piazza    58.5%
Bonds     48.1%
Clemens   47.7%
Smith     40.1%
Schilling 37.5%
Martinez  31.3%
Trammell  29.3%
McGriff   18.1%
Murphy    17.9%
Walker    17.1%
McGwire   14.5%
Sosa      12.8%
Palmeiro   9.9%
Mattingly  7.8%
---------------------
Lofton     4.4%
Williams   1.0%
Franco     0.5%
Alomar Jr0.5%
Green      0.3%
Rose       0.1% (write-in
   624. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:12 AM (#4342608)
As a Tim Raines fan, I'm tentatively pleased with how this is going so far (won't be this year, but he's moving in the right direction).

Piazza under 60% is absurd.
   625. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:14 AM (#4342612)
Okay:

Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it? Such that Biggio or Morris gets in?
   626. Walt Davis Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:17 AM (#4342613)
What time zone is Repoz in?

Hoboken 1982
   627. SavoyBG Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:17 AM (#4342615)
There's no fudging, this is not the Rock and Roll Hall Of Fame.

   628. Pat D Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:29 AM (#4342618)
– Lee Smith, the all-time leader in saves. Say what you want about the “save” statistic, but Smith’s durability, consistency and dominance pass my eyeball test.


This comment will likely be recycled for both Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.

There's no fudging, this is not the Rock and Roll Hall Of Fame.


They may have finally inducted Rush, but I'm not taking the R 'n R HOF seriously until Vanilla Fudge gets their due.
   629. Pat D Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:50 AM (#4342624)
Okay:

Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it? Such that Biggio or Morris gets in?



As much as I want people to be elected, it will be a bit funny to watch the poor HOF representative appear on MLB Network to announce the results and then try to plead people to attend an induction ceremony that will honor three people who died before World War II. I honestly think that anyone who is a first-timer on the ballot this year who gets elected subsequently should devote a good portion of their speech to lambasting the BBWAA. You know, cut a heel wrestling promo, basically. Yea, I know, that's not in the spirit of the HOF. But it has been done before. I believe Bill James said that Earl Averill did so, and that was in the 70's.
   630. Walt Davis Posted: January 09, 2013 at 03:05 AM (#4342628)
Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it? Such that Biggio or Morris gets in?

I will give a .37% chance that, if there is something like 10 times as many blank ballots as usual, they may say that they are disregarding blank ballots since they have obviously been filed in protest, not as legit votes ... assuming that would push somebody over the line.

But, really, too risky. It's one year ... again, if the HoF and Cooperstown can't survive one non-induction summer, they're financially doomed anyway. One would imagine that if the damage done by a non-induction was so high, they'd have changed things already (they've had several years of pretty dicey elections and folks have been talking about ballotgeddon for at least 2-3 years). Why would they take the massive risk of cheating(!) this year when they could just change the rules to "top vote getter" from now on or even announce that this year's ballot will result in a special run-off election among the top 5.

Or maybe they faked the moon landing in 2010 with Dawson's suspicious 77.9% and 2006 with Sutter's 76.9%. Hmmmm ... I sense a theme. Somehow Sosa is going to end up with 75.4% of the vote.
   631. Jittery McFrog Posted: January 09, 2013 at 03:11 AM (#4342630)
Somehow Sosa is going to end up with 75.4% of the vote.

Corked ballots.
   632. Kruger23 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 03:35 AM (#4342636)
Tom Verducci has spoken!!! His HOF ballot: Bagwell, Biggio, Schilling, McGriff, Raines, Morris
   633. MelOtt4 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 04:06 AM (#4342637)
Biggio is picking up some momentum. Not likely he'll hit 75% but keeping my fingers crossed.

   634. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 09, 2013 at 05:16 AM (#4342645)
Nice research, but it would be more impressive if you'd actually found someone who'd turned in a blank ballot in '96.

There were a handful of blank ballots being submitted back then. Tom Seaver was dinged down to 98.8% by three of them in 1992. However, the 1980s/90s blanks were protest ballots over Pete Rose's ineligibility, not a blanket rejection of a set of candidates or an era.
   635. Honkie Kong Posted: January 09, 2013 at 05:58 AM (#4342648)
At 151 we are below the +/-7% level now (6.85%), so with Biggio at 68.2% his statistical 19 times out of 20 max is now 75.05% or just barely over the line as a best case. Morris, even if you double the margin would be marginal now at 62.9%, double = 13.7%, so max of 76.6% if you figure a very, very strong bias. IMO that is too much to assume so I'd bet strongly on no one getting in.

You are assuming that this sample is representative. Anecdotally, it seems it is anything but. Most of the remaining votes are from people who no longer have a regular baseball writing outlet, so we should expect even more wackiness in that group.
   636. MattG Posted: January 09, 2013 at 08:06 AM (#4342657)
Checked to see if Bob Elliott's (Toronto Sun) has been added but didn't see it. Here it is: Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Fred McGriff, with 493 homers, Morris, Murphy, Piazza, Raines, Trammell and Walker.
   637. John Northey Posted: January 09, 2013 at 08:23 AM (#4342659)
Honkie Kong - I've put that disclaimer, that the sample is not a truly random one, on my past posts but forgot that time. The thing is that last years numbers actually landed in the range with only one exception (Morris) and he was off by less than 1% point. While not a purely random sample it is close enough that the general rule of thumb will apply unless there is a strong reason for the last batch to do something odd. At 170 now we are up to +/- 6.3% so even if it was a strongly biased group against Morris leading to a doubling of that error he'd now be well shy (73.2%) so I feel very safe saying he has no chance. In fact, for Morris (or Raines as they are tied) to make it he'd need 81.1% of the remaining votes which I doubt anyone sees as possible. Biggio is at a need for 76.9% which is possible but not easy (requires old guard to be strongly in favor of 3000 hits and feeling Biggio was clean). Bonds now would need 87.8% and ones lower than him even more and no way that is happening. Walker is now up to needing 99.7% of remaining ballots while the rest below him need over 100% (IE: no chance even if every last ballot out there had their name on it). With one more vote Walker has crossed the magic number to be over 5% even if everyone left didn't vote for him - all above him are safe for 2014, below still need help. Lofton needs 6% of remaining voters to check off his name to stick around for 2014.

All above is based on an assumption of 573 ballots ala last year - could be more or less but the basic arguments are the same unless we see a massive surge one way or the other.
   638. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 09, 2013 at 08:44 AM (#4342662)
Possible, of course, that a number of retired voters will just withhold ballots, disgusted and done with the process. A smaller denominator lifts all boats.

I didn't realize how dismal this will be until I saw that the Frick award is also being given posthumously. The Hall should explore the special induction route -- Sadaharu Oh, Dr. Jobe. Are any of the loquacious old scouts still around?
   639. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 09, 2013 at 08:59 AM (#4342668)
Even better is that Koufax never is/was one of those blowhards talking about much harder it was to pitch back then. A very private man. He must drive 'talent agents' crazy, in that you couldn't create a better template for legendary status - and it didn't happen for that reason.

Just a truly private person who was epically great in the right place at the right time - and not welcoming the adulation only has added to it.


What has become my favorite baseball story, from Jane Leavey's Koufax biography:

"One night during spring training, Norm Sherry prevailed upon Koufax to join him at The Flame, a joint popular with stewardesses and ballplayers. Koufax wasn't a boozer - he generally preferred a good book, a good bottle of wine, and a smoke. 'There were three stewardesses sitting at a bar,' Sherry said. 'One of them grabs Sandy's arm and says, "You're coming with me." He said, "See ya, Norm."'"
   640. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: January 09, 2013 at 09:31 AM (#4342681)
"The mustache put Fingers in the Hall.

Good news for Morris."

Please think of the stache next time Bobby Grich is on the VC ballot.
   641. John Northey Posted: January 09, 2013 at 09:39 AM (#4342683)
Rennie's Tenet - a smaller denominator could mess it up for Biggio's chances though...
If there are... (at 173 known)
500 ballots he needs 77.1% on the remaining ones
550 he needs 76.8% on the remaining ones
600 he needs 76.6% on the remaining ones

The fewer unknown ballots the harder it is to climb up. If Biggio was over 75% already then the lower the better (fewer chances to drop).
   642. vivaelpujols Posted: January 09, 2013 at 09:59 AM (#4342688)
Heyman's ballot:
1. Tim Raines
2. Jack Morris
3. Dale Murphy
4. Curt Schilling
5. Don Mattingly
6. Fred McGriff


I think Heyman is my least favorite sportwriter, and boy that's a lot of #### to be under.
   643. vivaelpujols Posted: January 09, 2013 at 10:14 AM (#4342694)
P.S. Bonds and Clemens are irrelevant. The two big kahunas are simply too controversial on this, their first ballot. Sitting at 45%-50% of the vote, give or take, confirms that.


I don't understand what this means.

Anyway, I agree with your general argument but if Bonds and Clemens were elected (which they would be with 90%+ of the vote if no one cared about steroids) the backlog would be lessened. Furthermore I think Piazza and Bagwell definitely go in as well. So PED's are undoubtedly a part of it.
   644. DA Baracus Posted: January 09, 2013 at 10:19 AM (#4342697)
I think Heyman is my least favorite sportwriter, and boy that's a lot of #### to be under.


To be fair his ballot was probably given to him by Boras.
   645. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2013 at 10:36 AM (#4342710)
Tony Mullane - 55.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).


Actually he was on the VC ballot for this year (and didn't make it) but I know what you meant.
   646. JE (Jason) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 10:44 AM (#4342713)
What time zone is Repoz in?

Hoboken 1982

Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
   647. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 10:50 AM (#4342720)
Heard an interview recently with Schilling and he was excited to be on the ballot this year against all the steroid guys who would not get voted in.
   648. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 09, 2013 at 10:51 AM (#4342721)
When he left Boston, at age 3433, he had 192182 wins -- hardly a Hall of Fame number.


FTFP (fixed that for Pedro).
   649. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 10:59 AM (#4342731)
However, the 1980s/90s blanks were protest ballots over Pete Rose's ineligibility, not a blanket rejection of a set of candidates or an era.


In 1988, nine sportswriters sent in blank ballots. They didn't have anything to do with Pete Rose, who was still a year from his suspension and subsequent ballot removal, but due to, what they believed, were a lowering of standards for Hall of Fame admission. Willie Stargell was still elected with 82 percent of the vote, but the blank ballots cost Jim Bunning, who received 74.2 percent that year - his highest figure on a BBWAA ballot.

   650. McCoy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:06 AM (#4342739)
If those voters didn't think these guys were worthy why would they have voted for Bunning?
   651. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:14 AM (#4342744)
If those voters didn't think these guys were worthy why would they have voted for Bunning?


If they opted not to vote instead of mailing in their blank ballot, Bunning makes it.

Like Ray and some others, I'm not opposed to blank ballots if a guy is small hall and feel strongly there's no candidate worthy. When they make a big deal about it, as Phil Pepe and some others did back then and some other guys did this year, it strikes me it's more about them than it is the vote.
   652. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:19 AM (#4342746)
Rennie's Tenet - a smaller denominator could mess it up for Biggio's chances though...


You are right. In my head I was assuming that the guys who drop out completely would be a-pox-on-the-steroids era guys, who might cast a vote for at most Morris, Smith, Murphy or Mattingly.
   653. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:20 AM (#4342748)

Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it?


You mean enhance player performance on the ballot?
   654. Andy McGeady Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:37 AM (#4342768)
Looks like Kenny Lofton is going to get Kevin Browned.

Just like Kevin Brown was Lou Whitakered.

It seems the BBWAA are just creating reasons for the Veterans Committee to stick around.

Ugh...
   655. jingoist Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:38 AM (#4342769)

"Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it?


You mean enhance player performance on the ballot?"

Is that similar in nature to the current definition of torture, when undertaken by Americans, as enhanced interrogation techniques?
   656. Chip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:42 AM (#4342772)
Verducci just said on the Dan Patrick Show that he withheld his vote for Bagwell in his first year of eligibility to punish him for remarks he made that steroids were no big deal. Try to imagine a Hall in which that standard had been applied to amps.
   657. Chip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:47 AM (#4342776)
Meanwhile Patrick has come up with an absurd argument that the first ballot threshold should be raised to make "1st ballot Hall of Famer" even tougher. So under his rule you can only get in on your first appearance on the ballot if you get 80 or 85% of the vote, not 75%.
   658. gabrielthursday Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:51 AM (#4342782)
Verducci just said on the Dan Patrick Show that he withheld his vote for Bagwell in his first year of eligibility to punish him for remarks he made that steroids were no big deal.
I can't speak to what Verducci said on the radio, but this isn't an accurate summary of what he wrote in a lengthy and well-articulated article over at SI:
Speculation alone is dangerous. I'll use Jeff Bagwell as an example. He's a guy I voted for again. But here are some facts about Bagwell: he hired a bodybuilder (later hired by Luis Gonzalez) in 1995 to make him "as big as I can," flexibility be damned; took the steroid precursor andro (as well as supplements such as creatine, HMB, zinc, etc.), underwent a massive body change; maintained a bodybuilder weightlifting regimen; called the whistle-blowing in 2002 by Caminiti "a shame" and the one in 2005 by Jose Canseco "very disappointing . . . whether it's true or not;" promulgated the red herring that drugs don't help baseball players ("Hand-eye coordination is something you can't get from a bottle," he said of his andro use); and as recently as 2010 in an ESPN interview openly endorsed steroid use by anyone from a fringe player ("I have no problem with that") to superstars such as Bonds and McGwire ("I know you took it but it doesn't matter") as well as the HGH use by an injured Andy Pettitte ("That's not a performance enhancer").

I disrespect his position on steroids and wonder why someone of a bodybuilder mindset who endorses steroid use would walk right up to the steroid line himself without crossing it. His comments, right before his first year on the ballot, bothered me so much that I didn't vote for him that year -- I needed more time to process his candidacy, a kind of deferral that is not uncommon. Without subsequent information, I have voted for him since.

   659. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:51 AM (#4342783)
Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it?

I querried something like this a few years ago and was told that the Hall gets their vote counting certified by an outside source that does that sort of thing for other places. So unless the certifier is playing the role of Arthur Anderson to Cooperstown's Enron, it can't happen.

I think it's doubtful myself. I'm cynical enough to consider it, but ultimately I don't believe Cooperstown plans out in advance what to do in the case of a goose egg vote. Certainly they don't plan it out well enough to actually put a plan into operation and get away with it.
   660. Mike Webber Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:53 AM (#4342785)
Gammon's ballot from MLB Hot Stove show,
Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammel, Larry Walker.
   661. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: January 09, 2013 at 11:58 AM (#4342796)
How to fix the HOF:

1) Allow voters to choose up to 15 candidates.
2) Require voters to choose at least one candidate.
3) If no one finishes with 75 percent of the vote, induct the first-place finisher if he has a majority.
   662. Chip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:00 PM (#4342802)
I can't speak to what Verducci said on the radio, but this isn't an accurate summary of what he wrote in a lengthy and well-articulated article over at SI:


It wasn't intended to be an accurate summary of what he wrote, since that isn't what it referenced.
   663. Mike Webber Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:00 PM (#4342803)
MLB.com votes, did this get posted?
   664. jobu Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:04 PM (#4342809)
Meanwhile Patrick has come up with an absurd argument that the first ballot threshold should be raised to make "1st ballot Hall of Famer" even tougher. So under his rule you can only get in on your first appearance on the ballot if you get 80 or 85% of the vote, not 75%.

Seems absurd, but in a normal balloting environment would have almost no impact at 80%. I think I've got my math right below.
Boggs: 91.9%
Brett: 98.2%
Eckersley: 83.2%
Gwynn: 97.6% (!)
Henderson: 94.8%
Molitor: 85.2%
Murray: 85.2%
Puckett: 82.1%
Ripken: 98.5%
Ryan: 98.8%
Schmidt: 96.5%
Ozzie: 91.7%
Winfield: 84.5%
Yount: 77.5%

So you'd be creating a rule to make the equivalent of Robin Yount wait a year. Silly.
   665. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:07 PM (#4342820)
So you'd be creating a rule to make the equivalent of Robin Yount wait a year. Silly.

Robin Yount, Lou Brock, & Jackie Robinson are the only ones ever affected by this proposed rule.
   666. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:08 PM (#4342827)
Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammel, Larry Walker.
Pretty good ballot.
   667. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:09 PM (#4342828)
So you'd be creating a rule to make the equivalent of Robin Yount wait a year. Silly.


And if the point is to make "1st ballot Hall of Famer" a legitimate distinction, the much bigger problem is that 2-time MVP Robin Yount (72.4 career WAR) got 20% less of the vote than Tony Gwynn (65.3 career WAR). Don't get me wrong: Gwynn belongs in the Hall of Fame, but he got a higher percentage than not only Yount but Rickey Freaking Henderson!!? and Mike Schmidt!!?
   668. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:09 PM (#4342831)
Maybe it's just my own addled mind...

But if the word "punishment" plays any role in determining your ballot -- beyond "Boy, that Jeff Bagwell sure could punish a baseball" -- then I think you're doing it wrong...
   669. Mike Webber Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:11 PM (#4342837)
Andrew Baggarly ballot: is here.

BALLOT
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Larry Walker
   670. gabrielthursday Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:13 PM (#4342840)
It wasn't intended to be an accurate summary of what he wrote, since that isn't what it referenced.
My point was simply that Verducci's thinking is more likely to be accurately reflected in what he wrote than in a conversation on air; especially since I'm guessing his written account is more detailed, writing generally allows people to be more reflective an precise and since he is, after all, a writer.
   671. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:15 PM (#4342846)
MLB.com votes, did this get posted?

Only 1, ONE MLB.com writer considers Curt Schilling a HOFer! ONE?!
   672. Pat D Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:22 PM (#4342855)
ESPN.com has their composite ballot out. They had 18 guys vote and only Biggio got over 75%. It also includes a blank ballot from Howard Bryant. Bryant said it was because of PED's, but in reference to the non-PED era players, he said, "...choosing to vote for any players, to make any sort of comparative evaluations in this environment, didn't seem particularly appropriate, either." So there you go.
   673. Chip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:23 PM (#4342857)
My point was simply that Verducci's thinking is more likely to be accurately reflected in what he wrote than in a conversation on air; especially since I'm guessing his written account is more detailed, writing generally allows people to be more reflective an precise and since he is, after all, a writer.


At length and in detail, his explanation gets worse, given that he uses it as an opportunity to all but accuse Bagwell of being a roider via guilt by association, before circling back to the same conclusion he conveyed on the radio.
   674. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:24 PM (#4342858)
I querried something like this a few years ago and was told that the Hall gets their vote counting certified by an outside source that does that sort of thing for other places. So unless the certifier is playing the role of Arthur Anderson to Cooperstown's Enron, it can't happen.

I think it's doubtful myself. I'm cynical enough to consider it, but ultimately I don't believe Cooperstown plans out in advance what to do in the case of a goose egg vote. Certainly they don't plan it out well enough to actually put a plan into operation and get away with it.


Fair enough, Jay. What about the speculation that they will merely decide to drop blank ballots? That would seem to be a safer way for them to doctor the results, even though it would be just as unjustifiable as just making numbers up.
   675. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:25 PM (#4342860)
Fair enough, Jay. What about the speculation that they will merely decide to drop blank ballots? That would seem to be a safer way for them to doctor the results, even though it would be just as unjustifiable as just making numbers up.


That's Chris. No relation to Jay.

And I don't think they drop the blank ballots either. They may decide to make some changes after this year to reduce the likelihood of an election-free weekend again, but I don't think they'll rig these results.
   676. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:28 PM (#4342862)
Thanks for the correction. Sorry, Chris.
   677. dusty.kemp Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:33 PM (#4342868)
ESPN's up if you don't already have those.

http://goo.gl/pMa5Y
   678. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:38 PM (#4342876)
I think they should drop the character clauses if the inductee agrees to spend one hour in the stocks on induction weekend (assuming they can find one big enough to clap around some of these guys' necks).
   679. JJ1986 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4342877)
ESPN's up if you don't already have those.


What a horrible picture they used for Piazza.
   680. JJ1986 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4342879)
Edes ballot: Biggio, Piazza, Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Raines, Schilling, Gar, Trammell and Walker. Best one I've seen anywhere.
   681. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:44 PM (#4342883)
I'm worried about Mussina hitting 5% next year. If Schilling only pulls 1/3 this year what is Moose going to be able to draw next year when Maddux, Clemens, Glavine and Schilling are all on the ballot along with him?
   682. SavoyBG Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:45 PM (#4342891)
Deacon White should give a good speech at the induction ceremonies. Lots of his fans should be in attendance.

His first team, the Cleveland Forest Citys, are sending a large number of supporters.
   683. JJ1986 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:46 PM (#4342893)
Someone voted for Shawn Green?
   684. Pat D Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:48 PM (#4342895)
I think they should drop the character clauses if the inductee agrees to spend one hour in the stocks on induction weekend (assuming they can find one big enough to clap around some of these guys' necks).


I remember Buster Olney suggesting once that some of these guys should have to wear their shame on their plaques. Like Pete Rose's would have to acknowledge his suspension, McGwire's would have to include his admission, Palmeiro's would have to include his positive test, etc. He said if the player didn't want to attend the ceremony with such a distinction that would be his right, but that it shouldn't prevent the HOF from being the Hall of Fame.
   685. Adam S Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:56 PM (#4342909)
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel HOF ballots


Tom Haudricourt: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa.

Michael Hunt: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds.

Mike Hart: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell

Bill Windler: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.


Could we just outsource the voting to the Milawaukee Journal Sentinel voters? We'd get an induction ceremony with Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens and Piazza. This has to be the most sensible 'block vote' of the year, notwithstanding the odd Hunt ballot.
   686. Andy McGeady Posted: January 09, 2013 at 12:58 PM (#4342911)
ESPN had 18 voters but Howard Bryant didn't submit a ballot because of... well.. read it yourself: http://espn.go.com/mlb/hof13/story/_/id/8825545/a-baseball-hall-fame-voter-blank-ballot

But this neatly illustrates the idiocy of the blank protest ballot.

Here's the total votes for each candidate:

14 Biggio
13 
Piazza
12 
Bagwell
11 
Bonds
11 
Clemens
11 
Morris
10 
Raines
Schilling
Martinez
Smith
Trammell
Murphy
McGriff
McGwire
Palmeiro
Sosa
Mattingly
Walker
Williams 


And here's the voting results in percentage form. Only Biggio gets in:

% of 18 Voters
77.8% - Biggio
72.2
% - Piazza
66.7
% - Bagwell
61.1
% - Bonds
61.1
% - Clemens
61.1
% - Morris
55.6
% - Raines
44.4
% - Schilling
38.9
% - Martinez
38.9
% - Smith
38.9
% - Trammell
27.8
% - Murphy
16.7
% - McGriff
11.1
% - McGwire
11.1
% - Palmeiro
11.1
% - Sosa
05.6
% - Mattingly
05.6
% - Walker
05.6
% - Williams 


And here's why submitting a blank ballot is a problem:

% of 17 Voters
82.4% - Biggio
76.5
% - Piazza
70.6
% - Bagwell
64.7
% - Bonds
64.7
% - Clemens
64.7
% - Morris
58.8
% - Raines
47.1
% - Schilling
41.2
% - Martinez
41.2
% - Smith
41.2
% - Trammell
29.4
% - Murphy
17.6
% - McGriff
11.8
% - McGwire
11.8
% - Palmeiro
11.8
% - Sosa
05.9
% - Mattingly
05.9
% - Walker
05.9
% - Williams 


If Bryant simply doesn't submit a ballot rather than submitting a blank one, Piazza gets in and Mattingly, Walker and Williams are all a little bit safer from dropping off the ballot entirely.

If you want to protest, just don't vote. Because otherwise you're messing everyone else's stuff up.
   687. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:03 PM (#4342919)
If you want to protest, just don't vote. Because otherwise you're messing everyone else's stuff up.


That doesn't make any sense. His protest is the blank ballot, not the non-mailing of his ballot. And he's fine with that, because the others are in his view justifiable collateral damage.
   688. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:04 PM (#4342920)
I asked at the top of the thread, but I'll throw it out there again: Is this the highest number/greatest percentage of votes that have been run through the Gizmo? I know it blows 2012 out of the water. If nothing else, it's interesting if more and more voters are putting their choices out there for public consumption.
   689. Andy McGeady Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:07 PM (#4342923)
That doesn't make any sense. His protest is the blank ballot, not the non-mailing of his ballot. And he's fine with that, because the others are in his view justifiable collateral damage.
The collateral damage is precisely the point. Say what you like about Bonds and Clemens but why does everyone else suffer? If someone drops off the ballot this year because of blank ballots screwing up the percentages, is that really worth it?
   690. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:09 PM (#4342930)
#689, even after reading Bryant's column I can't figure out what his thought process was, exactly. He claims his blank ballot was not out of "protest" but was simply out of him being unsure what to do. At the end he says this. He is fine with the collateral damage:

So I chose to leave my ballot blank this year. I know that by returning it, my ballot will count in the total number of voters participating in the election, and that makes it slightly more difficult for players such as Fred McGriff and Tim Raines and Jack Morris to reach the 75-percent-of-voters level necessary for induction. But choosing to vote for any players, to make any sort of comparative evaluations in this environment, didn't seem particularly appropriate, either.

   691. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:11 PM (#4342932)
Deacon White should give a good speech at the induction ceremonies. Lots of his fans should be in attendance.


I just thought of a way to salvage this: They should have Old Hoss Radbourn speak at the ceremony.
   692. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:11 PM (#4342933)

It seems the BBWAA are just creating reasons for the Veterans Committee to stick around.


Will they ever get around to looking at more modern players? I'd hate to think Lou Whitaker doesn't get in til 50 years after he's dead.
   693. Squash Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:14 PM (#4342937)
And I don't think they drop the blank ballots either. They may decide to make some changes after this year to reduce the likelihood of an election-free weekend again, but I don't think they'll rig these results.

In a way I think there are probably a fair number of writers who may want no one to get elected this year. It sets them up for all sorts of thundering articles blaming the players for forcing the sportswriters to do this and how the poor people of Cooperstown, to whom no other livelihood is available than to stake their entire financial fortune on a single mercurial weekend of the year, are the ones punished. These guys aren't going to look at themselves - it's the players.

That being said I do think a no-induction year and the follow-up moralizing will probably serve as sufficient catharsis for a lot of writers (the temporary penalty guys) and allow them to vote for roid guys next year when they might have intended to wait longer otherwise.
   694. Andy McGeady Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:14 PM (#4342938)
#690 To return a blank ballot because one is "unsure" is...well... weak.
   695. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:18 PM (#4342943)
Will they ever get around to looking at more modern players? I'd hate to think Lou Whitaker doesn't get in til 50 years after he's dead.


In about 11 months they will get around to it, though Lou's got another three years on top of that before he's eligible to be overlooked by the Veterans Committee.

   696. Pat D Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:20 PM (#4342948)
Will they ever get around to looking at more modern players? I'd hate to think Lou Whitaker doesn't get in til 50 years after he's dead.


Next year they'll be looking at the "Expansion Era" again. They last looked at that era in 2011 and they only elected Pat Gillick. The others on the ballot were George Steinbrenner, Billy Martin (as manager), Marvin Miller, Dave Concepcion (who got most votes of the players on the ballot), Vida Blue, Steve Garvey, Ron Guidry, Tommy John, Al Oliver, Ted Simmons and Rusty Staub.

It's hard to see Lou Whitaker being on the ballot next year, because the guys who didn't get elected then still figure to be on the ballot. However, the ballot is also certain to include Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre since they're all now retired as managers. I would have to think they all get elected, too.
   697. JJ1986 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:21 PM (#4342951)
However, the ballot is also certain to include Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre since they're all now retired as managers.


Does the character clause apply to managers?
   698. Pat D Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:23 PM (#4342954)
To return a blank ballot because one is "unsure" is...well... weak.


I agree. If you're not sure, do what TJ Quinn did and just decide to stop voting. The somewhat ironic thing is that Bryant suggests he may just do that. Too bad he didn't start this year.
   699. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:23 PM (#4342955)
The VC has outlived its usefulness. Anyone whose career ended before 1970 has been considered and reconsidered and given a fair hearing. If they want to look at the Dwight Evanses and Bobby Griches again, sure. But the Deacon Whites and Gil Hodges? What is the point of this?
   700. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:24 PM (#4342956)
It's hard to see Lou Whitaker being on the ballot next year, because the guys who didn't get elected then still figure to be on the ballot. However, the ballot is also certain to include Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre since they're all now retired as managers. I would have to think they all get elected, too.


Whitaker won't be eligible until the 2016 (2017 Election Year) vote. Hopefully, Grich at least makes the player cut this time around, while Cox, Torre, LaRussa and Miller all get the necessary votes to usher them in and make it possible that this group can start electing players.

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