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Sim Player From To Yrs WAR W L WL% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ Roger Clemens 1984-1996 13 77.8 192 111 .634 3.06 383 382 0 100 38 0 2776.0 2359 1045 943 194 856 2590 144 944 Dwight Gooden 1984-1998 14 50.1 185 103 .642 3.33 377 374 1 68 24 1 2580.7 2318 1044 956 169 843 2150 113 919 Bob Welch 1978-1990 13 39.6 176 109 .618 3.16 396 371 16 54 27 8 2513.0 2273 981 882 194 801 1714 114 907 Tom Glavine 1987-1999 13 49.2 187 116 .617 3.38 399 399 0 45 18 0 2659.7 2529 1110 1000 178 900 1659 120 904* Bob Gibson 1959-1969 11 58.4 167 110 .603 2.76 349 311 17 166 42 4 2522.7 2061 882 774 170 861 2119 134 903* Tom Seaver 1967-1978 12 83.9 219 127 .633 2.51 423 417 5 188 47 1 3239.7 2568 991 905 232 888 2756 139 894 Lon Warneke 1930-1942 13 43.8 188 115 .620 3.18 415 332 55 188 30 13 2680.0 2628 1115 947 172 720 1104 120 894 Greg Maddux 1986-1999 14 74.1 221 126 .637 2.81 436 432 3 93 28 0 3068.7 2761 1104 959 157 691 2160 144 889 Jack Morris 1977-1988 12 34.3 177 118 .600 3.59 370 348 10 133 21 0 2622.7 2347 1136 1045 272 930 1703 112 888 Mike Mussina 1991-2002 12 56.2 182 102 .641 3.54 355 355 0 51 20 0 2454.0 2305 1026 966 257 557 1931 128 887 Pedro Martinez 1992-2005 14 79.1 197 84 .701 2.72 419 352 23 46 17 3 2513.0 1905 835 759 194 662 2861 166Edit: Oh, and Bob, if you can throw a quick return in there before Gibby in the next six minutes, the next 98 posters would surely appreciate it.
http://www.csnne.com/baseball-boston-redsox/redsox-talk/One-mans-PED-free-Hall-of-Fame-ballot?blockID=821323&feedID=10430
Peter Abraham: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilng, Alan Trammell.
Nick Cafardo: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.
Dan Shaughnessy: Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell.
Bob Ryan: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling.
Shaughnessy votes for Schilling. The mind boggles.
Gossage and Morris had the stache.
My hope now is to see Raines, Bagwell and Piazza over 60% thus upping the odds of a bandwagon effect for them. Also to see Morris go down sub-60% so we don't have to think too much about him next year.
Matthews has turned in one of my favorite rationalizations.
I won't vote for cheaters.
Cheaters are bad.
People who took steroids to get a strength/health advantage are cheaters.
No to cheaters.
I vote for the guy who measures only 1.04 Altuves but had a 60% jump in home runs at age 38 which he improved on at age 39, plus one of the two guys we 100% for sure know took steroids to get on the field faster and stronger because we saw him canonized for it on national TV in the Bloody Sock Battle Of Twenty Aught Four, and Mike Piazza.
Shaughnessy wrote after Clemens left Boston in 1996 that Clemens needed "four more good years" to make the Hall.
Another Boston Globe writer: Tony Massarotti: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez.
What a hoot. I've heard of guilt by association, but usually the party being associated with is itself guilty. Here, we have guilt by association with Bagwell, who himself is guilty by association with the Steroids Era.
Tom Haudricourt: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa.
Michael Hunt: Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds.
Mike Hart: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammell
Bill Windler: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Alan Trammell.
Morris, Raines, Trammell, Smith
Relive the 80s much??
Jack Clark - 50.1 WAR, 1.5% in 1998.
Ron Cey - 50.4 WAR, 1.9% in 1993.
Jose Cruz - 51 WAR, 0.4% in 1994.
Chet Lemon - 52 WAR, 0.2% in 1996.
Robin Ventura - 52.3 WAR, 1.3% in 2010.
Jimmy Wynn - 53.1 WAR, 0.0% in 1983.
Will Clark - 53.2 WAR, 4.4% in 2006.
John Olerud - 53.7 WAR, 0.7% in 2011.
Darrell Evans - 55.1 WAR, 1.7% in 1995.
Willie Davis - 56.8 WAR, 0.0% in 1985 (didn't even appear on ballot).
Sal Bando -57.1 WAR, 0.7% in 1987.
Jack Glasscock - 59.2 WAR, 2.6% in 1936.
Reggie Smith - 60.8 WAR, 0.7% in 1988.
Buddy Bell - 61.6 WAR, 1.7% in 1995.
Willie Randolph - 63.0 WAR, 1.1% in 1998.
Bobby Grich - 67.3 WAR, 2.6% in 1992.
Lou Whitaker - 71.4 WAR, 2.9% in 2001.
Pitchers (just including pitching WAR):
Jack Powell - 51.3 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Kevin Appier - 51.9 WAR, 0.2% in 2010.
Frank Tanana - 52.6 WAR, 0.0% in 1999.
Jerry Koosman - 53.1 WAR, 0.9% in 1991.
Dave Stieb - 53.5 WAR, 1.4% in 2004.
Chuck Finley - 54.3 WAR, 0.2% in 2008.
Tony Mullane - 55.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Bret Saberhagen - 56.0 WAR, 1.3% in 2007.
Charlie Buffinton - 57.1 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
David Cone - 58.2 WAR, 3.9% in 2009.
Tommy Bond - 60.8 WAR, 1.3% in 1936.
Kevin Brown - 64.5 WAR, 2.1% in 2011.
Rick Reuschel - 64.6 WAR, 0.4% in 1997.
Bobby Mathews - 65.6 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Jim McCormick - 72.2 WAR, 0.0% of the vote (never appeared on a ballot).
Mike Hunt has a neatly trimmed ballot.
That's just about a perfect ballot for me. I can't immediately think of anyone I'd replace on it.
IIRC, Poz's ballot this year had Walker, not McGwire.
Niekro
Perez
Rice
Sutter
Sutton
Right there, you've got Niekro, who IMHO clearly belongs in, but does have just a 115 ERA+ (hampered by a long decline phase) and can be viewed as a compiler--plus four other guys who are pretty clearly near the HOF cutoff in my view. Among others on the ballot that year were Ron Santo and Dick Allen--who may belong in the HOF, but are not no-doubters.
It's not hard for me to see how a reasonable voter could have sent in a blank ballot that year. That, of course, is not THIS year.
Nice research, but it would be more impressive if you'd actually found someone who'd turned in a blank ballot in '96. I don't think very many folks were thinking about "compilers" at that point in time; that term didn't come into vogue until there was a more organized HOM effort. One of the math whizzes here could probably calculate the odds of a blank ballot in that year with the three guys scoring in the 60s and the low overall vote/ballot...it might actually work AGAINST the idea of a blank ballot. Whereas if you get rid of the blank ballots we're going to have this time, the vote/ballot total will be the highest since the early 80s, and the increase from '12 to '13 in terms of vote/ballot will be at least as high as it was from '98 to '99 (when Ryan, Brett, Yount and Fisk all debuted).
Biggio 70.5%Morris 68.9%
Raines 61.5%
Bagwell 60.0%
Piazza 58.5%
Bonds 48.1%
Clemens 47.7%
Smith 40.1%
Schilling 37.5%
Martinez 31.3%
Trammell 29.3%
McGriff 18.1%
Murphy 17.9%
Walker 17.1%
McGwire 14.5%
Sosa 12.8%
Palmeiro 9.9%
Mattingly 7.8%
---------------------
Lofton 4.4%
Williams 1.0%
Franco 0.5%
Alomar Jr. 0.5%
Green 0.3%
Rose 0.1% (write-in)
Piazza under 60% is absurd.
Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it? Such that Biggio or Morris gets in?
Hoboken 1982
This comment will likely be recycled for both Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.
They may have finally inducted Rush, but I'm not taking the R 'n R HOF seriously until Vanilla Fudge gets their due.
As much as I want people to be elected, it will be a bit funny to watch the poor HOF representative appear on MLB Network to announce the results and then try to plead people to attend an induction ceremony that will honor three people who died before World War II. I honestly think that anyone who is a first-timer on the ballot this year who gets elected subsequently should devote a good portion of their speech to lambasting the BBWAA. You know, cut a heel wrestling promo, basically. Yea, I know, that's not in the spirit of the HOF. But it has been done before. I believe Bill James said that Earl Averill did so, and that was in the 70's.
I will give a .37% chance that, if there is something like 10 times as many blank ballots as usual, they may say that they are disregarding blank ballots since they have obviously been filed in protest, not as legit votes ... assuming that would push somebody over the line.
But, really, too risky. It's one year ... again, if the HoF and Cooperstown can't survive one non-induction summer, they're financially doomed anyway. One would imagine that if the damage done by a non-induction was so high, they'd have changed things already (they've had several years of pretty dicey elections and folks have been talking about ballotgeddon for at least 2-3 years). Why would they take the massive risk of cheating(!) this year when they could just change the rules to "top vote getter" from now on or even announce that this year's ballot will result in a special run-off election among the top 5.
Or maybe they faked the moon landing in 2010 with Dawson's suspicious 77.9% and 2006 with Sutter's 76.9%. Hmmmm ... I sense a theme. Somehow Sosa is going to end up with 75.4% of the vote.
Corked ballots.
There were a handful of blank ballots being submitted back then. Tom Seaver was dinged down to 98.8% by three of them in 1992. However, the 1980s/90s blanks were protest ballots over Pete Rose's ineligibility, not a blanket rejection of a set of candidates or an era.
You are assuming that this sample is representative. Anecdotally, it seems it is anything but. Most of the remaining votes are from people who no longer have a regular baseball writing outlet, so we should expect even more wackiness in that group.
All above is based on an assumption of 573 ballots ala last year - could be more or less but the basic arguments are the same unless we see a massive surge one way or the other.
I didn't realize how dismal this will be until I saw that the Frick award is also being given posthumously. The Hall should explore the special induction route -- Sadaharu Oh, Dr. Jobe. Are any of the loquacious old scouts still around?
What has become my favorite baseball story, from Jane Leavey's Koufax biography:
"One night during spring training, Norm Sherry prevailed upon Koufax to join him at The Flame, a joint popular with stewardesses and ballplayers. Koufax wasn't a boozer - he generally preferred a good book, a good bottle of wine, and a smoke. 'There were three stewardesses sitting at a bar,' Sherry said. 'One of them grabs Sandy's arm and says, "You're coming with me." He said, "See ya, Norm."'"
Good news for Morris."
Please think of the stache next time Bobby Grich is on the VC ballot.
If there are... (at 173 known)
500 ballots he needs 77.1% on the remaining ones
550 he needs 76.8% on the remaining ones
600 he needs 76.6% on the remaining ones
The fewer unknown ballots the harder it is to climb up. If Biggio was over 75% already then the lower the better (fewer chances to drop).
I think Heyman is my least favorite sportwriter, and boy that's a lot of #### to be under.
I don't understand what this means.
Anyway, I agree with your general argument but if Bonds and Clemens were elected (which they would be with 90%+ of the vote if no one cared about steroids) the backlog would be lessened. Furthermore I think Piazza and Bagwell definitely go in as well. So PED's are undoubtedly a part of it.
To be fair his ballot was probably given to him by Boras.
Actually he was on the VC ballot for this year (and didn't make it) but I know what you meant.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
FTFP (fixed that for Pedro).
In 1988, nine sportswriters sent in blank ballots. They didn't have anything to do with Pete Rose, who was still a year from his suspension and subsequent ballot removal, but due to, what they believed, were a lowering of standards for Hall of Fame admission. Willie Stargell was still elected with 82 percent of the vote, but the blank ballots cost Jim Bunning, who received 74.2 percent that year - his highest figure on a BBWAA ballot.
If they opted not to vote instead of mailing in their blank ballot, Bunning makes it.
Like Ray and some others, I'm not opposed to blank ballots if a guy is small hall and feel strongly there's no candidate worthy. When they make a big deal about it, as Phil Pepe and some others did back then and some other guys did this year, it strikes me it's more about them than it is the vote.
You are right. In my head I was assuming that the guys who drop out completely would be a-pox-on-the-steroids era guys, who might cast a vote for at most Morris, Smith, Murphy or Mattingly.
You mean enhance player performance on the ballot?
Just like Kevin Brown was Lou Whitakered.
It seems the BBWAA are just creating reasons for the Veterans Committee to stick around.
Ugh...
"Does anyone think the HOF has it in them to fudge the results if no candidate makes it?
You mean enhance player performance on the ballot?"
Is that similar in nature to the current definition of torture, when undertaken by Americans, as enhanced interrogation techniques?
I querried something like this a few years ago and was told that the Hall gets their vote counting certified by an outside source that does that sort of thing for other places. So unless the certifier is playing the role of Arthur Anderson to Cooperstown's Enron, it can't happen.
I think it's doubtful myself. I'm cynical enough to consider it, but ultimately I don't believe Cooperstown plans out in advance what to do in the case of a goose egg vote. Certainly they don't plan it out well enough to actually put a plan into operation and get away with it.
Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Alan Trammel, Larry Walker.
1) Allow voters to choose up to 15 candidates.
2) Require voters to choose at least one candidate.
3) If no one finishes with 75 percent of the vote, induct the first-place finisher if he has a majority.
It wasn't intended to be an accurate summary of what he wrote, since that isn't what it referenced.
Seems absurd, but in a normal balloting environment would have almost no impact at 80%. I think I've got my math right below.
Boggs: 91.9%
Brett: 98.2%
Eckersley: 83.2%
Gwynn: 97.6% (!)
Henderson: 94.8%
Molitor: 85.2%
Murray: 85.2%
Puckett: 82.1%
Ripken: 98.5%
Ryan: 98.8%
Schmidt: 96.5%
Ozzie: 91.7%
Winfield: 84.5%
Yount: 77.5%
So you'd be creating a rule to make the equivalent of Robin Yount wait a year. Silly.
Robin Yount, Lou Brock, & Jackie Robinson are the only ones ever affected by this proposed rule.
And if the point is to make "1st ballot Hall of Famer" a legitimate distinction, the much bigger problem is that 2-time MVP Robin Yount (72.4 career WAR) got 20% less of the vote than Tony Gwynn (65.3 career WAR). Don't get me wrong: Gwynn belongs in the Hall of Fame, but he got a higher percentage than not only Yount but Rickey Freaking Henderson!!? and Mike Schmidt!!?
But if the word "punishment" plays any role in determining your ballot -- beyond "Boy, that Jeff Bagwell sure could punish a baseball" -- then I think you're doing it wrong...
Only 1, ONE MLB.com writer considers Curt Schilling a HOFer! ONE?!
At length and in detail, his explanation gets worse, given that he uses it as an opportunity to all but accuse Bagwell of being a roider via guilt by association, before circling back to the same conclusion he conveyed on the radio.
Fair enough, Jay. What about the speculation that they will merely decide to drop blank ballots? That would seem to be a safer way for them to doctor the results, even though it would be just as unjustifiable as just making numbers up.
That's Chris. No relation to Jay.
And I don't think they drop the blank ballots either. They may decide to make some changes after this year to reduce the likelihood of an election-free weekend again, but I don't think they'll rig these results.
http://goo.gl/pMa5Y
What a horrible picture they used for Piazza.
His first team, the Cleveland Forest Citys, are sending a large number of supporters.
I remember Buster Olney suggesting once that some of these guys should have to wear their shame on their plaques. Like Pete Rose's would have to acknowledge his suspension, McGwire's would have to include his admission, Palmeiro's would have to include his positive test, etc. He said if the player didn't want to attend the ceremony with such a distinction that would be his right, but that it shouldn't prevent the HOF from being the Hall of Fame.
Could we just outsource the voting to the Milawaukee Journal Sentinel voters? We'd get an induction ceremony with Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens and Piazza. This has to be the most sensible 'block vote' of the year, notwithstanding the odd Hunt ballot.
But this neatly illustrates the idiocy of the blank protest ballot.
Here's the total votes for each candidate:
14 - Biggio13 - Piazza
12 - Bagwell
11 - Bonds
11 - Clemens
11 - Morris
10 - Raines
8 - Schilling
7 - Martinez
7 - Smith
7 - Trammell
5 - Murphy
3 - McGriff
2 - McGwire
2 - Palmeiro
2 - Sosa
1 - Mattingly
1 - Walker
1 - Williams
And here's the voting results in percentage form. Only Biggio gets in:
% of 18 Voters
77.8% - Biggio72.2% - Piazza
66.7% - Bagwell
61.1% - Bonds
61.1% - Clemens
61.1% - Morris
55.6% - Raines
44.4% - Schilling
38.9% - Martinez
38.9% - Smith
38.9% - Trammell
27.8% - Murphy
16.7% - McGriff
11.1% - McGwire
11.1% - Palmeiro
11.1% - Sosa
05.6% - Mattingly
05.6% - Walker
05.6% - Williams
And here's why submitting a blank ballot is a problem:
% of 17 Voters
82.4% - Biggio76.5% - Piazza
70.6% - Bagwell
64.7% - Bonds
64.7% - Clemens
64.7% - Morris
58.8% - Raines
47.1% - Schilling
41.2% - Martinez
41.2% - Smith
41.2% - Trammell
29.4% - Murphy
17.6% - McGriff
11.8% - McGwire
11.8% - Palmeiro
11.8% - Sosa
05.9% - Mattingly
05.9% - Walker
05.9% - Williams
If Bryant simply doesn't submit a ballot rather than submitting a blank one, Piazza gets in and Mattingly, Walker and Williams are all a little bit safer from dropping off the ballot entirely.
If you want to protest, just don't vote. Because otherwise you're messing everyone else's stuff up.
That doesn't make any sense. His protest is the blank ballot, not the non-mailing of his ballot. And he's fine with that, because the others are in his view justifiable collateral damage.
I just thought of a way to salvage this: They should have Old Hoss Radbourn speak at the ceremony.
Will they ever get around to looking at more modern players? I'd hate to think Lou Whitaker doesn't get in til 50 years after he's dead.
In a way I think there are probably a fair number of writers who may want no one to get elected this year. It sets them up for all sorts of thundering articles blaming the players for forcing the sportswriters to do this and how the poor people of Cooperstown, to whom no other livelihood is available than to stake their entire financial fortune on a single mercurial weekend of the year, are the ones punished. These guys aren't going to look at themselves - it's the players.
That being said I do think a no-induction year and the follow-up moralizing will probably serve as sufficient catharsis for a lot of writers (the temporary penalty guys) and allow them to vote for roid guys next year when they might have intended to wait longer otherwise.
In about 11 months they will get around to it, though Lou's got another three years on top of that before he's eligible to be overlooked by the Veterans Committee.
Next year they'll be looking at the "Expansion Era" again. They last looked at that era in 2011 and they only elected Pat Gillick. The others on the ballot were George Steinbrenner, Billy Martin (as manager), Marvin Miller, Dave Concepcion (who got most votes of the players on the ballot), Vida Blue, Steve Garvey, Ron Guidry, Tommy John, Al Oliver, Ted Simmons and Rusty Staub.
It's hard to see Lou Whitaker being on the ballot next year, because the guys who didn't get elected then still figure to be on the ballot. However, the ballot is also certain to include Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre since they're all now retired as managers. I would have to think they all get elected, too.
Does the character clause apply to managers?
I agree. If you're not sure, do what TJ Quinn did and just decide to stop voting. The somewhat ironic thing is that Bryant suggests he may just do that. Too bad he didn't start this year.
Whitaker won't be eligible until the 2016 (2017 Election Year) vote. Hopefully, Grich at least makes the player cut this time around, while Cox, Torre, LaRussa and Miller all get the necessary votes to usher them in and make it possible that this group can start electing players.
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