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Wednesday, December 25, 2013

The 2013 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

The 2014 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Final: Jan.9 - 11:30 ~ 209* Full Ballots ~ (36.7%* of vote ~ based on last year) (*new ballot/pct. record!)

99.5 - Maddux
95.7 - Glavine
89.0 - F. Thomas
79.4 - Biggio
———————————
67.9 - Piazza
61.7 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
56.5 - Bagwell
54.5 - Raines
42.1 - Bonds
40.7 - Clemens
36.8 - Schilling
26.8 - Mussina
25.4 - E. Martinez
24.4 - L. Smith
22.0 - Trammell
15.8 - Kent
12.0 - McGriff
10.5 - McGwire
  8.1 - L. Walker
  7.2 - S. Sosa
  5.7 - R. Palmeiro
———————————
4.8 - Mattingly
0.5 - P. Rose (Write-In)

Thanks to Butch, Ilychs Morales, leokitty & Barnald for their help.

As usual…send them in if you come across any ballots!

Repoz Posted: December 25, 2013 at 03:56 PM | 2002 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, hof

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1201. The District Attorney Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:11 PM (#4631783)
Gomez: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Morris, Trammell, McGriff, Lee Smith
Gomez' response to criticism:
Actually, I don’t. “@joshwolff22: @pedrogomezESPN You gotta explain Biggio being left off…”
Anyone with a problem with HOF voting should contact the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. They’re the ones who made and set the rules.

Calcaterra's take:
Given what he’s said about Jeff Bagwell in the past, I’m guessing Gomez suspects Biggio of PEDs but is unwilling to publicly comment about it. I mean, it can’t be standards themselves. He voted for Jay Bell once for the Hall of Fame. For real. Still, it’s awesome that a guy with a huge platform at a major sports network so stridently states that you’re not entitled to his rationale when it comes to his own news and history-making acts.

As for the second tweet, Gomez needs to appreciate the difference between people who have “a problem with Hall of Fame voting” in general and people who have a problem with his Hall of Fame votes specifically. The process may be flawed, but that’s a separate topic. The people he’s fighting with on Twitter today just think his vote is dumb. No matter what you do to the process there will be dumb votes. You’re not any more immunized from criticism for them based on an appeal to the Hall of Fame than a politician is from his acts in office based on an appeal to the Constitution. I mean, how would that even look?

President Obama: I have decided to issue an executive order declaring Nickleback the Official Rock Band of the United States of America.

People: THAT’S AWFUL!!!

Obama: Anyone with a problem with my Nickleback as America’s Band order should contact the the next-convened Constitutional convention. They’re the ones who made and set the rules.
(Gomez, BTW, also voted for Bill Mueller.)
   1202. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4631784)
Stanton's ballot is probably the oddest.


Not for Stanton.
   1203. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4631785)
If he voted for Clemens and Bonds again, he knows that he'll get plenty of backlash...maybe not from here, but BBTF doesn't represent the popular opinion.


True enough.
   1204. vagab0nd (no longer an outl13r) Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4631786)
Tom Haudricourt tweet: Deciding between putting HOF ballot online tomorrow or wearing suit of raw meat into lion's exhibit at the zoo. Close call.

Must be just Morris.


Or he left off Maddux.
   1205. Booey Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:13 PM (#4631787)
well, if the gizmo and repoz are right, this means that craig biggio is goin into the Hall and mah Husband FINALLY has to keep his promise he made to take me to cooperstown.


So will he have to take you again in a year or two when Bagwell gets elected?
   1206. tfbg9 Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:14 PM (#4631788)
@1185-and in yours, Duranty deserves his Pulitzer. Thanks for the broadside insult, as$hole.

Speaking of children, children can see through the linked "story." It's h0rsesh1t journalism. Pure and simple.
   1207. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:16 PM (#4631791)

So will he have to take you again in a year or two when Bagwell gets elected?


And just imagine when three-time World Series championship manager Brad Ausmus get's Cooperstown's call. Of course, she might want to go alone for that one.
   1208. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:25 PM (#4631802)
The ESPN gang, put through Tango's system:

(DISCLAIMER: there is at least one error here as when I tried to write down who voted for which candidate, I got 165 votes, instead of the actual total of 164. Also, I didn't doublecheck the numbers listed below - but oh well)

Kurkjian 96
O'Connor 94
Pascarelli 94
Roberts 93
Edes 93
Rubin 93
Rubin 92
Olney 89
Caple 88

(All the above voted Bonds/Clemens. None of the below did. Call it a bias of the system).

Crasnick 80
Matthews 80
Stark 75
Stanton 62
Graziano 60
Knisley 54
Gomez 33
Bryant -2

   1209. base ball chick Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:34 PM (#4631810)
sorry double post
   1210. base ball chick Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:35 PM (#4631811)
Booey Posted: January 06, 2014 at 06:13 PM (#4631787)

well, if the gizmo and repoz are right, this means that craig biggio is goin into the Hall and mah Husband FINALLY has to keep his promise he made to take me to cooperstown.


So will he have to take you again in a year or two when Bagwell gets elected?


- no
and the SOB is trying to get out of it by saying that the original agreement was when biggio and bagwell go in TOGETHER, but that is horsepoopoo because
1 - he was supposed to take me there for a honeymoon the summer after we got married
2 - he knew i knew he knew i knew he knew that couldn't nobody predict when either would finish his career and i expected that both would have gone in first ballot. so i wouldn't nevah have said nothing stupid like that
3 - he keeps hoping if he whines enough i will get all fed up and tell him to sit home on his good for nothin ass while me and mama go instead

besides

IF i am ever gonna go back it will be when we are old and bradley awesomeness, manager of the century gets put in by the Vet committee. Gonna go and yell - YOU STILL TEH HOTTTTTTTEST EVAH!!!!!
Husband be rollin his eyes so hard they get stuck at the top
   1211. tfbg9 Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:47 PM (#4631821)
BBC, you need to get these kind of things in writing. Apparently. ;-)
   1212. Blastin Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:49 PM (#4631822)
Gizmo mentioned on YES just now, too, after MLB network a few hours ago.

We may have a big haul of new traffic soon, for better or worse.
   1213. Fog City Blues Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:54 PM (#4631828)
Oh wait. The BBWAA site has Purdy's 2013 vote as Biggio, Morris, Raines, Smith (Smith not Piazza). I imagine there was a data entry error on the leokitty site where she mistakenly recorded Purdy's 4th vote for Piazza instead of Smith.

So best guess is that Purdy is a really small hall voter who only votes for a maximum of 4 players in a given year (and thus dropped Biggio, Morris, Raines to make room for newcomers). For whatever reason, Lee Smith is in his really small HOF.
   1214. maven of all things baseball Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:56 PM (#4631831)
Booey Posted: January 06, 2014 at 06:13 PM (#4631787)

well, if the gizmo and repoz are right, this means that craig biggio is goin into the Hall and mah Husband FINALLY has to keep his promise he made to take me to cooperstown.


So will he have to take you again in a year or two when Bagwell gets elected?



- no
and the SOB is trying to get out of it by saying that the original agreement was when biggio and bagwell go in TOGETHER, but that is horsepoopoo because
1 - he was supposed to take me there for a honeymoon the summer after we got married
2 - he knew i knew he knew i knew he knew that couldn't nobody predict when either would finish his career and i expected that both would have gone in first ballot. so i wouldn't nevah have said nothing stupid like that
3 - he keeps hoping if he whines enough i will get all fed up and tell him to sit home on his good for nothin ass while me and mama go instead

besides

IF i am ever gonna go back it will be when we are old and bradley awesomeness, manager of the century gets put in by the Vet committee. Gonna go and yell - YOU STILL TEH HOTTTTTTTEST EVAH!!!!!
Husband be rollin his eyes so hard they get stuck at the top



This is an Onion bit, right?
   1215. bunyon Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:01 PM (#4631834)
Reads more like the NT Times to me.

Seriously, I know Lisa. I don't know you madduxboy.
   1216. maven of all things baseball Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:06 PM (#4631839)
Reads more like the NT Times to me.

Seriously, I know Lisa. I don't know you madduxboy.


I suppose I could be an Onion bit...
   1217. tfbg9 Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:07 PM (#4631840)
Repoz is gonna be on The Fan with Fatso any day now! He can regurgitate his Koufax road ERA beef!
   1218. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:10 PM (#4631842)
Wait, looking at Tango's scored ballots, did he not get a perfect score on what would have been his ballot? That'd be kind of hilarious if he actually scored himself at a 94.
   1219. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:13 PM (#4631844)
This is one of the silliest memes in this whole mess. The writers didn't "cover up" anything. You're confusing the fact that the traditional tone in which the narrative baseball, baseball players, and baseball games are discussed in mainstream newspapers -- generally positive, often bordering on mythological -- continued through the Steroid Era, with a cover-up.

Paging Steve Wilstein...
   1220. bunyon Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:52 PM (#4631862)
This is one of the silliest memes in this whole mess. The writers didn't "cover up" anything. You're confusing the fact that the traditional tone in which the narrative baseball, baseball players, and baseball games are discussed in mainstream newspapers -- generally positive, often bordering on mythological -- continued through the Steroid Era, with a cover-up.

I think this is mostly true and why they're so outraged now. They were on the scene and could have uncovered the story but, instead, just phoned in the usual hagiography and are now scrambling when it turns out that their heroes aren't heroes. At least with the older guys before we found out they were womanizing, drug abusing, and otherwise flawed humans they were old and dying and we could all just wink at their youthful past.

They either covered up or missed the real story. Either way, as reporters, they should feel shame.
   1221. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:55 PM (#4631866)
Looking at IP/year, Koufax only hit 300 IP 3 times but, just taking their top 6 seasons, Koufax pitched almost 300 IP more. Another clear win for Koufax.
Koufax - 335/323/311/255/222/184
Santana - 234/233/231/228/219/199

What I don't know how to factor in is that Koufax pitched in a much more advantageous era, ballpark, and league (no DH) than Santana. I know that's reflected in WAR (where the two pitchers are close) but an inning in Koufax's era was certainly easier than in Santana's time. Hard to argue that would make up more than a portion of the IP difference.


The IP difference was also due to differences between the eras (vs. the ERAs)...

I know that we have to adjust for eras, but by absolute value, an average starting pitcher in todays game is less valuable than an average starting pitcher in the past, and that should be fully acknowledged.


But not necessarily less talented.
   1222. flournoy Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:59 PM (#4631869)
Pedro Gomez would have been better off just copying Joe Posnanski's ballot.
   1223. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 06, 2014 at 09:17 PM (#4631878)
Looks like Morris would need ~80% of the unreported ballots to receive 75% of the total ballots. Dare we say, it's over?
   1224. cardsfanboy Posted: January 06, 2014 at 09:21 PM (#4631879)
But not necessarily less talented.


Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Doc Gooden are some of the most talented pitchers I have ever seen. I am never going to recommend them for the hof.

My point about the value is that both war and waa are based upon the performance value that other players give in that era, but in eras where pitchers pitched 30% more innings, an average pitcher is worth more value. Ultimately when we are talking hof, everyone is, in their own way, talking about value of the players.

It's unfair to compare players from differing eras and expect one to perform to the standards of the other, but you should acknowledge how the different eras affect each player. In Koufax vs Santana case you have
1. Koufax finishing games that Santana didn't, this means Koufax's ERA has a better chance of taking a hit, as MGL/Tango like to remind everyone, hitters do significantly better against pitchers the third and fourth time through the lineup. (you can see it somewhat in his splits, he has a 3.12 era in the 8th inning, and 3.30 era in the 9th,and 3.25 in extras his first is also pretty bad with a 3.35...every other inning he is below 2.89.) These are the innings that Santana isn't pitching.

2. Because of that and since the late innings are usually the high leverage innings, Koufax faced a little higher average leverage (1.06 vs .94) (there are a ton of other factors involved in this case of course) but generally speaking Koufax pitched in tougher situations.

3. Because of relief specialists, a pitcher who is in line for a win, is more than likely to maintain it in the current era than in the past, or at least maintain their winning percentage, because if they leave with a lead and it gets blown, they don't get the penalty, but if it's not blown, they get the reward..... I feel this is why winning percentage prior to 1968 might be a decent way to evaluate a pitcher, but after that, it's no longer nearly as useful of a tool(with the same caveats about quality of offense etc applying)

4. Meanwhile Santana pitched in an era with deeper lineups and the DH. So his performance is shaped by facing higher offensive competition, arguably this could negate the three+ times through the lineup issue that Koufax had.

But ultimately, when looking at players, the innings pitched is the biggest factor. Even though he's a product of his era, Koufax still pitched more innings every year than Santana, and when looking at in season value, that is a big deal. No amount of timelining can really adjust the value of those innings. Every inning pitched by the best pitcher on the team, is another inning not pitched by someone else. Santana can point to being in an era where the relief specialist provided value, but he doesn't get credit for their innings pitched.

   1225. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2014 at 09:32 PM (#4631884)
Looks like Morris would need ~80% of the unreported ballots to receive 75% of the total ballots. Dare we say, it's over?


Yes, it's over. He does poll better among the unreported than the public ballots, but in 2013 his support was only 70 percent from the non-Gizmo'd voters. He's not gaining 10 percentage points from that group when he's basically flat with the voters where he had more room to move up.

   1226. Scott Ross Posted: January 06, 2014 at 10:38 PM (#4631924)
the SOB is trying to get out of it


If yer hubbie decides to man up, the A$$clown and I would love to meet you guys in NYC for drinks
   1227. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 06, 2014 at 10:44 PM (#4631937)
1224: Is an inning or two pitched the 4th time thru the order by the best pitcher on a team more valuable than an inning pitched by fresher, high-quality bullpen arms? Tiring Koufax vs., say, Robertson and Rivera? Particularly if a manager is able to get the platoon advantage against the opponent's best hitters?
   1228. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2014 at 10:48 PM (#4631940)
If yer hubbie decides to man up, the A$$clown and I would love to meet you guys in NYC for drinks.

I haven't checked for cost, but distance and ease of access you're better flying into Albany.
   1229. cardsfanboy Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:13 AM (#4631992)
1224: Is an inning or two pitched the 4th time thru the order by the best pitcher on a team more valuable than an inning pitched by fresher, high-quality bullpen arms? Tiring Koufax vs., say, Robertson and Rivera? Particularly if a manager is able to get the platoon advantage against the opponent's best hitters?


From a team point of view probably not. But again, the point is that people are looking at comparable career numbers between Santana and Koufax(per era+ and innings pitched if you compare Koufax 5 years to Santana 7 years.) I'm pointing out that Koufax was better than Santana on a rate basis, except that his numbers are hurt by going through the lineup a 4th time. Yet he still has the same numbers, if he had the advantage of Santana, and got pulled earlier per game, like Santana, his rate numbers would have been better instead of (borderline) equal to Santana.

Someone was saying they were having a hard time separating the two players and I was pointing out why Koufax has the advantage.
   1230. base ball chick Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:15 AM (#4631993)
Lassus Posted: January 06, 2014 at 09:48 PM (#4631940)
If yer hubbie decides to man up, the A$$clown and I would love to meet you guys in NYC for drinks.


- oh honey, oscar the grouch ain't goin to no NYC. and we couldn't afford expensive hotels like that. would love to meet up with you and AC - he left california?


I haven't checked for cost, but distance and ease of access you're better flying into Albany.


i looked it up 2 years ago when i thought i was gonna be able to get him to go
either albany or syracuse.

he's whining and sulking like a 2 year old. jeezus youda thunk i asked him to go shopping for shoes or something
   1231. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:21 AM (#4631997)
President Obama: I have decided to issue an executive order declaring Nickleback the Official Rock Band of the United States of America.

People: THAT’S AWFUL!!!

Obama: Anyone with a problem with my Nickleback as America’s Band order should contact the the next-convened Constitutional convention. They’re the ones who made and set the rules.


But that's preposterous! Nickelback is CANADIAN! I demand an immediate investigation into this likely treasonous act!
   1232. McCoy Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:33 AM (#4632035)
Albany is the way to go and when July opens up for reservations with Southwest I would bet Southwest will offer the cheapest tickets. Probably get two tickets with Southwest for under 600 bucks.
   1233. Lassus Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:37 AM (#4632037)
i looked it up 2 years ago when i thought i was gonna be able to get him to go
either albany or syracuse.


Yeah, Syracuse is a bit farther of a drive, though. Also, depending on what you're looking to spend, there are A LOT of smaller motels within an hour's radius. Don't get too put off in your search and, well, think small.
   1234. gabrielthursday Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:46 AM (#4632039)
But that's preposterous! Nickelback is Canadian!

That's all right. You can keep them.
   1235. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 07, 2014 at 05:30 AM (#4632066)
Also, depending on what you're looking to spend, there are A LOT of smaller motels within an hour's radius. Don't get too put off in your search and, well, think small.

Where's the fun of checking into an out-of-town motel with a man if you have to think small?
   1236. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 07, 2014 at 09:10 AM (#4632082)
But that's preposterous! Nickelback is CANADIAN! I demand an immediate investigation into this likely treasonous act!


Well if the President isn't American no reason for the Official Rock Band of the US to be an American band :-)
   1237. John DiFool2 Posted: January 07, 2014 at 09:29 AM (#4632087)
It's unfair to compare players from differing eras and expect one to perform to the standards of the other, but you should acknowledge how the different eras affect each player.


Oh I indeed acknowledge that there were substantial differences between the eras (all the stuff you listed is old hat to just about anyone here). It (once again, is there an echo in here?) is you who isn't being consistent. You can't go and list all of that stuff and expound in detail about how they all affect the value in question, and then lock the innings into stone, as if they exist in an entirely different plane of existence, because they don't. That's a dangerous inconsistency. The conditions of the game at the time gave Koufax the edge, not his talent per se, and that most certainly includes the innings differences.

Koufax did have slightly higher ERA's in the 8th/9th/extras, 17% of his innings total (tho his best numbers of all were in the 7th).
   1238. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 07, 2014 at 09:34 AM (#4632088)
After 146 ballots here is what people need on the remaining ballots to get in (or avoid dropping off);

Biggio - 73.2%
Piazza - 75.9%
Bagwell - 78.2%
Morris - 79.4%
Sosa - 4.1%
Palmeiro - 4.8%
Mattingly - 5.0%
   1239. dlf Posted: January 07, 2014 at 09:52 AM (#4632092)
i looked it up 2 years ago when i thought i was gonna be able to get him to go
either albany or syracuse.


Yeah, Syracuse is a bit farther of a drive, though. Also, depending on what you're looking to spend, there are A LOT of smaller motels within an hour's radius.


If you are trying to compare airports and cost is more important than time, you could also consider Binghamton which would be ~2 hours from Cooperstown. And there are some lovely Inns and B&Bs; along the way. I loved staying at the Colgate Inn about an hour from the HOF.

Ultimately when we are talking hof, everyone is, in their own way, talking about value of the players.


I disagree.

When I'm thinking about the HOF or putting together dlf's imprecise and arbitrary ranking of all time greats, I really try to think about how the player would perform in other circumstances. That Joe DiMaggio put up fewer real wins playing in Death Valley than he would have elsewhere matters for his teams, but when I compare him to Speaker or Griffey, I want to neutralize the situation. Wade Boggs' swing was perfectly tailored to bang balls off the Monster resulting in more real wins for the BoSox, but playing elsewhere he would not have had this same result; when I compare him to Santo or Chipper, I want to at least attempt to neutralize it. Ted Williams lost ~5 seasons to the USMC when he added no value to his baseball teams; when looking at him versus Bonds, I want to mentally account for that.
   1240. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:02 AM (#4632095)
Well if the President isn't American no reason for the Official Rock Band of the US to be an American band :-)

Heh. Well done.
   1241. Lassus Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:19 AM (#4632107)
If you are trying to compare airports and cost is more important than time, you could also consider Binghamton which would be ~2 hours from Cooperstown.

The trouble with this is that the smaller airports are usually MORE expensive to fly into, aren't they?
   1242. bunyon Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:32 AM (#4632114)
Airline flights are, on the surface, pretty irrational. I can fly from three airports and it is usually a tossup as to which will be cheaper. I think it's safe to say that, on average, smaller airports are cheaper. On the other hand, there is enough variance (destinations, time of year, etc) that it's usually a good idea to check any airport from which you can launch your trip.

Of course, you have to factor into that rental cars and gas, etc. Rental car prices also vary considerably as they try to get cars to where they need them. If money is an issue (when isn't it?), it's probably worth half a day on the various travel sites trying to get the best deals.


Do they still play the HOF game that weekend? Maybe the Tigers will be involved and you can see Bradley manage.
   1243. arrabin56 Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:46 AM (#4632121)
Ballots from Newsday's writers, in the paper today:

David Lennon: Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Maddux, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Thomas

Bob Herzog: Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Maddux, McGwire, Palmeiro, Piazza, Sosa, Thomas

Mark Herrmann: Biggio, Glavine, Maddux, Piazza, Thomas

Steven Marcus: Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, Morris, Thomas

Yes, you read that last one correctly.
   1244. alilisd Posted: January 07, 2014 at 11:14 AM (#4632137)
Mark Hermann, Gizmo inspired voter?
   1245. dlf Posted: January 07, 2014 at 11:20 AM (#4632140)
The trouble with this is that the smaller airports are usually MORE expensive to fly into, aren't they?


Usually, but not always. I just plugged a mid may Thursday-Sunday trip from Atlanta into kayak.com and got $320 for Binghampton, $350 for Syracuse, $440 for Albany, $450 for Watertown, and $460 for Ithaca.
   1246. dlf Posted: January 07, 2014 at 11:22 AM (#4632142)
Have we seen any writers vote yes on Clemens but no on Bonds? If not, the guilty / not guilty verdicts, and the evidence presented at the different trials, hasn't mattered to anyone but Andy.
   1247. John Northey Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:25 PM (#4632185)
Weird ballots there arrabin56. Marcus is a bizarre one with 3 inner circle, a guy with an inner circle peak and Morris. Herrmann is the ideal non-10 person ballot this year as it gives votes to the 5 with a shot. Interesting that Newsday had 3 of 4 vote for Bonds & Clemens.
   1248. TJ Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:29 PM (#4632193)
Great, another guy who seems to have a pre-determined number of players he will vote for on any ballot regardless of the HOF guidelines. I'm talking to you, Steven Marcus. Last year he voted for five- Bonds, Clemens, Morris, Biggio, and Piazza. This year he voted for five again- Bonds, Clemens, Morris, Maddux, and Thomas. Aside from why Morris instead of Glavine, he dropped Piazza and Biggio. Since Marcus had plenty of room on his ballot with five unfilled spots, I have to ask, "What, Biggio and Piazza were less deserving this year?"

   1249. brutus Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:30 PM (#4632195)
MLB.com writers' ballots are posted
   1250. brutus Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4632197)
Ken Gurnick: First voter to not include Maddux!
   1251. rawagman Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4632198)
Ladies and Gentlemen, Ken Gurnick!
KEN GURNICK, Dodgers beat reporter
Morris

Morris has flaws -- a 3.90 ERA, for example. But he gets my vote for more than a decade of ace performance that included three 20-win seasons, Cy Young Award votes in seven seasons and Most Valuable Players votes in five. As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them.
   1252. bunyon Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:37 PM (#4632205)
As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them.

I'm sure old Ken is about to get well and truly ripped but let me begin:

Jack Morris played on the same field (specifically in the 1992 ALCS) against Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco. Thus, he played solidly in the PED era. Thus, Ken is a moron. Or a hypocrite. Or both.
   1253. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:37 PM (#4632206)
As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them.


I don't agree at all with this approach but I respect it a hell of a lot more than I do the people who randomly pick and choose who is and is not a user.
   1254. bunyon Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:39 PM (#4632211)
Me, too, Jose. But Morris DID play in the PED era. The PED era didn't start in 2000. It started in the 80s. When The Jack was the winningest pitcher.
   1255. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4632213)
Ken Gurnick: First voter to not include Maddux!


"KEN GURNICK, Dodgers beat reporter
Morris

Morris has flaws -- a 3.90 ERA, for example. But he gets my vote for more than a decade of ace performance that included three 20-win seasons, Cy Young Award votes in seven seasons and Most Valuable Players votes in five. As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them."

Well, there you go. There had to be somebody taking such a stance. I'm surprised a no on Maddux would be on a published ballot. The guy should lose his privileges ASAP.
   1256. John Northey Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4632214)
Knew it was coming eventually. Hopefully Gurnick quits doing ballots for the HOF for the forseeable future as he cannot vote for anyone then for a decade plus.
   1257. Ryan Thibodaux Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4632215)
I've got all the MLB.com writers in my hybrid tracker.

Looks to me like Bagwell's chances are pretty much done. Piazza took a big hit too.
   1258. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4632217)
MLB.com writers' ballots are posted


Pretty strict. The 17 MLB.com writers only average 7.6 votes per ballot. Gurnick's 1-person ballot has a lot to do with that, of course. But there's also at least one 3-person, 4-person, and 5-person ballot there, too. And another shutout for Sammy Sosa. Poor guy.
   1259. John Northey Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4632218)
Wonder how players will react to him in the clubhouse next year, knowing that he was one of the few who won't vote for such a clear HOF'er with no whisper of PED taint? Hopefully he finds himself frozen out by all of them.
   1260. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4632219)
Hopefully Gurnick quits doing ballots for the HOF for the forseeable future as he cannot vote for anyone then for a decade plus.


No, he'll just submit blank ballots.
   1261. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:43 PM (#4632220)
Do they still play the HOF game that weekend? Maybe the Tigers will be involved and you can see Bradley manage.


They don't play it at all (at least nothing is played between current big league teams).

   1262. The District Attorney Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:43 PM (#4632222)
At least vote for Raines and Trammell, ya mook.
   1263. SandlotBB Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:45 PM (#4632224)
Here's another voice for stripping Gurnick of voting privileges. What's ironic is that Morris DID PLAY DURING THE PERIOD OF PED USE!!!!! (as noted by #1254) The whole BBWAA should be turned upside down. I for one have never visited Cooperstown and refuse to do so until the nonsense is over.
   1264. jdennis Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:47 PM (#4632228)
Man those MLB ballots are some doozies. The Royals reporter didn't vote for Thomas.

I was half expecting to see Luis Gonzalez, Sean Casey, and JT Snow votes.

But Gonzo is still at nada. Somebody in Arizona has to vote for him, you'd figure. Interesting how there have been literally zero courtesy votes so far. Obviously there would be less, but zero?
   1265. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:49 PM (#4632230)
Me, too, Jose. But Morris DID play in the PED era. The PED era didn't start in 2000. It started in the 80s. When The Jack was the winningest pitcher.


Oh his ballot is ridiculous, just weighing in on the general concept not the specifics. Morris' career looks like a steroid user, incredibly durable, then a mid-30s stumble then suddenly at age 37 he has a remarkable rebound season after joining the team that featured the guy that once jumped from 4 homers to 31 in one year.

Semi-related Chris Burke on MLB Radio right now, he comes across intelligent and thoughtful.
   1266. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:51 PM (#4632233)
Boy, there are some real doozies here:

HAL BODLEY, senior correspondent
Glavine, Maddux, Morris, Thomas

I'm not ready to vote for Biggio and once again have no intention of ever punching my ballot for the steroid-suspected candidates.


TERENCE MOORE, columnist
Glavine, Maddux, McGriff, Smith, Thomas

As for the feel part, a Hall of Fame candidate needs to make you feel as if he belongs with the others in Cooperstown. To me, McGriff fits both categories. So does Smith, but none of the others, especially the ones whose names have been associated with steroids.


MARTY NOBLE, national reporter
Glavine, Maddux, Morris

I don't want 28 people entering the Hall at once, so I limited my checks on the ballot to three.


These are some of the very worst ballots we have seen. Well done MLB.com. You should be very proud.
   1267. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4632236)
And if I'm reading it right, Gurnick scores a -15 on Tango's system, +3 for Morris, -18 for 9 blank spots. Juan Vene has been surpassed.
   1268. The District Attorney Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:57 PM (#4632239)
Have we seen any writers vote yes on Clemens but no on Bonds?
According to the spreadsheet in #1257, Pete Abraham is the only writer in this category. And he apparently literally flipped a coin between Bonds and Clemens. So no, no one's ballot seems to reflect an opinion that Bonds used PED but Clemens didn't.

Two writers have voted Bonds but not Clemens, Richard Griffin and Barry Rozner. Griffin babbles on about how you had to see these guys play, which surely has nothing to do with why one might feel that Roger freakin' Clemens is not a Hall of Famer. Rozner offers not even that much explanation.
   1269. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:57 PM (#4632240)
These are some of the very worst ballots we have seen. Well done MLB.com. You should be very proud.

Those guys are embarrassing. There really are a lot of charlatans in the BBWAA. A lot of good ones, but, man, a lot of charlatans, too. Those of you more familiar with Terence Moore than I am, has he ever written anything remotely intelligent? I have never seen a word the man has published that didn't scream HACK.
   1270. Gamingboy Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:58 PM (#4632241)
Ken Gurnick, YOU HAVE FAILED THIS SPORT!
   1271. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:00 PM (#4632244)
And if I'm reading it right, Gurnick scores a -15 on Tango's system, +3 for Morris, -18 for 9 blank spots. Juan Vene has been surpassed.


No, Gurnick's score is -80. He gets 1 point for Jack, -81 for the rest (-1, -3, -5, etc. for each blank space).

It's the second-lowest score one could get (a blank ballot or a single vote for someone like JT Snow would result in -100).

   1272. Jick Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:01 PM (#4632245)
Those of you more familiar with Terence Moore than I am, has he ever written anything remotely intelligent?


No. The AJC's sports section was practically how I learned to read. Terence Moore is therefore the first writer I ever hated.
   1273. JustDan Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4632248)
What time tomorrow is the official announcement?
   1274. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4632249)
No, Gurnick's score is -80. He gets 1 point for Jack, -81 for the rest (-1, -3, -5, etc. for each blank space).


?? Did he revise his system? I got this right from his Dec 25 blog entry:

16 points for each of: Bonds, Maddux, Clemens

8 point for each of: Fr Thomas, Piazza, Bagwell

7 points for each of: Raines, Biggio, Glavine, Trammell

That’s 100 for the perfect ballot.

6 points for: Schilling, Mussina, Edgar, McGwire

5 points for: La Walker, Sosa, Kent

4 points for: Palmeiro, McGriff

3 points for: Mattingly, Morris

2 points for: Alou, Lee Smith, Lu Gonzalez

1 point for: Kenny Rogers

Negative one point for: anyone else

Negative two points for every open spot on the ballot


And what does (-1, -3, -5, etc. for each blank space) mean? -1 for one blank spot, -3 for each of 2, -5 for each of 3, etc?

edit: OK, I found his revised system.
   1275. JustDan Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:06 PM (#4632251)
-1 for the first blank spot, -3 for the 2nd blank spot, etc. It fully penalizes partial ballots.
   1276. LargeBill Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:09 PM (#4632254)
Why do idiots like Hal Bodley, Murray Chass and Gurnick assume that Jack Morris never took supplements and steroids and whatnot? Is being average a defense against accusations of taking PED's? Despite the words "performance" and "enhancing" PED's do not guarantee you'll turn into a Bonds or Clemens caliber player. Most merely help your body (muscles specifically) recover more quickly from workouts and other physical exertion. However, if you are average you won't magically become great. The writers assume based on winning 21 games at age 34 that Clemens started using as soon as he crossed the Canadian border to play for Toronto. However, they completely ignore that Morris crossed that same border and suddenly won 21 games at age 37.
   1277. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4632256)
The mlb.com ballots are pretty terrible overall. At least my rooting interest (Raines) is holding up well, 23.5% from mlb.com aside.
   1278. LargeBill Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4632257)
1273. JustDan Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4632248)
What time tomorrow is the official announcement?


2 PM.
   1279. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:14 PM (#4632259)
The writers assume based on winning 21 games at age 34 that Clemens started using as soon as he crossed the Canadian border to play for Toronto. However, they completely ignore that Morris crossed that same border and suddenly won 21 games at age 37.


Yes, but one of those 21 win seasons 101 ERA+ in 241 IP is not like the other 222 ERA+ in 264 IP. Guess who's is who's?
   1280. LargeBill Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:15 PM (#4632260)
He is still around 79%, but I'm getting a little worried that Biggio may be back on next years ballot. It only take a few Gurnick style votes to drop him below the 75% line. Have to assume most people who are as dumb as Gurnick don't come right out and advertise their stupidity. So there could be quite a few "no one from the last 30 years" types in the unannounced ballots.
   1281. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:17 PM (#4632264)
The writers assume based on winning 21 games at age 34 that Clemens started using as soon as he crossed the Canadian border to play for Toronto. However, they completely ignore that Morris crossed that same border and suddenly won 21 games at age 37.


To be fair...

Clemens won 21 games with Toronto because he was amazing (222 ERA+, Toronto's OPS was dead last in the AL).
Morris won 21 games with Toronto because his offensive support was amazing (101 ERA+, Toronto's OPS was the best in the AL).

Edit: Half a coke to Mr. Mays.
   1282. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4632274)
We're living in the Corky Gurnick era of the Hall of Fame.
   1283. thetailor Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:29 PM (#4632276)
The writers assume based on winning 21 games at age 34 that Clemens started using as soon as he crossed the Canadian border to play for Toronto. However, they completely ignore that Morris crossed that same border and suddenly won 21 games at age 37.


This is a great point. It's pretty damn stark, the comparison. We all already know that Gurnick's ballot is indefensible from any rational standpoint, but this makes it even worse.
   1284. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:32 PM (#4632279)
Hopefully Gurnick quits doing ballots for the HOF for the forseeable future as he cannot vote for anyone then for a decade plus.


Why, have players stopped taking steriods?

As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them."

Doesn't say anything about testing, just use. Gurnick is a joke, but Marty Noble is absolute horseshite.

I don't want 28 people entering the Hall at once, so I limited my checks on the ballot to three.

Gurnick is at least 'using' the character clause. Noble is simply voting as he sees fit with no regards to the actual HOF guidelines. And he is flagrantly stating that.
   1285. TJ Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4632283)
MLB.com, baseball's official website and the mouthpiece for major league baseball. They have 17 voters contributing. My personal breakdown of their ballots is:

Defensible- 8 (BARRY M. BLOOM, CHRIS HAFT, PAUL HAGEN, RICHARD JUSTICE, CARRIE MUSKAT, TRACY RINGOLSBY, PHIL ROGERS, T.R. SULLIVAN. Best Ballot- Justice, Ringolsby, or Muskat.


Borderline- 2 (LYLE SPENCER-I will give Spencer the benefit of the doubt on Mattingly, McGriff, and Morris due to his “I believe they were Hall of Famers in their time”, which is a defensible point if you are a Big Hall/peak focused kind of voter.; MARK NEWMAN- Would have made the good list if A) he had cast ten votes, and B) only one was for either Morris or Smith.

Indefensible- 7

MIKE BAUMAN, national columnist
Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas
Comment- If you’re only going with seven votes, why Lee Smith, who I think we can all agree is one of the weaker of the reasonable HOF candidates.

HAL BODLEY, senior correspondent
Glavine, Maddux, Morris, Thomas
Comment- How can anyone only vote for four candidates and have Morris as one of them?

KEN GURNICK, Dodgers beat reporter
Morris
Comment- Worst…ballot…ever…Aside from the idiocy of not voting for anyone from the Steroid Era, then what about Trammell? Raines? Smith? Hell, even Mattingly?

DICK KAEGEL, Royals beat reporter
Bagwell, Biggio, Glavine, Maddux, Morris, Smith, Trammell
Comment- Only seven votes, and two are Morris and Smith. Bagwell, but no Thomas?

TERENCE MOORE, columnist
Glavine, Maddux, McGriff, Smith, Thomas
Comment- Three first-timers, and possibly the two weakest cases among the candidate crop with legit arguments. A very weak and poor ballot. His writeup is insipid, too.

MARTY NOBLE, national reporter
Glavine, Maddux, Morris
Comment- As bad as Gurnick’s, but for a different reason. His comment of “I don't want 28 people entering the Hall at once, so I limited my checks on the ballot to three. That ought to be enough to go along with the three managers.” Should be enough to have him stripped of his vote, since nowhere in the BBWAA or HOF guidelines does it empower a voter to decide how many people should be inducted in any given year.

TOM SINGER, Pirates beat reporter
Biggio, Glavine, Maddux, Martinez, Mussina, Palmeiro, Smith, Thomas.
Comment- Aside from casting only eight votes (and one being for Smith), how can someone vote for Palmeiro and not Bonds or Clemens? Singer’s answer? “Palmeiro was a consistent marvel long before he was caught doping.” And Bonds and Clemens weren't? Illogic at its finest.


The percentage of indefensible ballots here is too high for MLB.com. I expected better.
   1286. LargeBill Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4632284)
1279. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:14 PM (#4632259)

The writers assume based on winning 21 games at age 34 that Clemens started using as soon as he crossed the Canadian border to play for Toronto. However, they completely ignore that Morris crossed that same border and suddenly won 21 games at age 37.

Yes, but one of those 21 win seasons 101 ERA+ in 241 IP is not like the other 222 ERA+ in 264 IP. Guess who's is who's?


In my defense, I intentionally only used their win total because it was the same and because as any dues paying member of the BBWAA (at least those who vote for Morris over Clemens) can tell you wins and saves are the only stats necessary to tell ya all you need to know about a pitcher. "ERA+?! Plus what?"
   1287. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:41 PM (#4632293)
MIKE BAUMAN, national columnist
Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas
Comment- If you’re only going with seven votes, why Lee Smith, who I think we can all agree is one of the weaker of the reasonable HOF candidates.


Maybe my standards are just too low, but this ballot seems okay - certainly compared to many. He votes for the six deserving candidates with the best chance of being elected and doesn't vote for Jack Morris.
   1288. TJ Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:44 PM (#4632297)

Maybe my standards are just too low, but this ballot seems okay - certainly compared to many. He votes for the six deserving candidates with the best chance of being elected and doesn't vote for Jack Morris.


I rank it indefensible since the gap between the #6 guy on this ballot and Lee Smith is too big- there are plenty of players with better cases on this ballot than Smith who could have been included. A ten-person ballot with Smith would be defensible...
   1289. Blastin Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4632299)
And lo, he decided never to visit mlb.com for analysis ever again. Only videos and highlights.
   1290. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4632300)
I'm a big hall guy and Lee Smith's prime was right during my coming of age when I'm most nostalgic about the game, but I still don't get the persistent love for Smith from the writers. He was never as big a star as The Quis and he mostly stood out to me as a guy who always looked to be completely miserable on a baseball diamond. He had no personality at all. I just do not get it.
   1291. Topher Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:48 PM (#4632301)
Just in case he reads this ...

T.R. SULLIVAN

I'm curious about your blurb:

This would have been an even more difficult vote if it were one and done. It is not. So there are some guys I left off who I will vote for in the future but didn't feel an overwhelming need to do so right now. I still decline the honor of sitting in judgment of possible steroid users, but it's getting tougher each year to vote for Palmeiro and prop up his vanishing candidacy while not voting for someone like Thomas. That's not going to happen much longer.


I don't know if you are willing to elaborate on this but I do find this perspective quite interesting. If this were a "one and done" vote as you put it, how would your ballot be different? I have a sneaky suspicion that I'd be doing some game theory in my own head if I had to produce a 10 person ballot.
   1292. rawagman Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4632307)
@1291 - he is clearly doing game theory. He left Thomas off this ballot because he figured that Thomas wouldn't need his help, and he would have another chance to amend that position if he was wrong. Palmeiro, on the other hand, may need his vote direly in order to live to fight another day.
If this was one and done, Sullivan seems to indicate that he would leave game theory out of it and vote his conscience for the top 10.
   1293. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:55 PM (#4632308)
Noble is simply voting as he sees fit with no regards to the actual HOF guidelines. And he is flagrantly stating that.


I don't see anything wrong with that. If I am given a ballot with names on it I don't consider any 'instructions' on how to vote to be binding in the slightest. The whole point of voting is the exercise of free choice. If you want to restrict who gets on the ballot, that's one thing, but I don't think any additional advice can be considered more than guidelines.
   1294. maven of all things baseball Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:04 PM (#4632317)
Early voter missed by the gizmo

Rick Morrissey, Chicago Sun-Times (3) Glavine, Maddux, Thomas

Here is a link to the column: http://www.suntimes.com/sports/morrissey/24464143-452/frank-thomas-cemented-status-as-first-ballot-hall-of-famer.html
   1295. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:05 PM (#4632320)
If this was one and done, Sullivan seems to indicate that he would leave game theory out of it and vote his conscience for the top 10.


If HOF balloting had been one-and-done all along, of course, Palmeiro and a bunch of other guys would have dropped off the ballot years ago and the 10-man ballot limit wouldn't be an issue: who's the 10th-best 1st-year candidate on the ballot - somebody like Moises Alou?
   1296. John Northey Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:10 PM (#4632331)
MLB.com seems to be the retirement home for writers who cannot get jobs elsewhere. I mean, sheesh. The ballots are bad enough but the 'reasoning' in many cases was pathetic too. The Morris only guy could've said something about the other pre-PED guys (Mattingly, Trammell, Smith ... Raines doesn't count since he played until 2002) and why they weren't worthy of his vote but odds are he just forgot they were there or that they played mainly pre-PED explosion depending where the line is. Heck, even if he just said 'anyone who played after the 1994 strike could've used so I cannot vote for them' would've been somewhat of a reason (dumb reason, but at least he would have his line in the sand) it would've helped but to say Morris avoided the PED era while Trammell & Mattingly didn't is plain old dumb.
   1297. Pete L. Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:10 PM (#4632332)
Jin Heyman's ballot is up, and it is just as you would expect:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24401353/steroid-users-shouldnt-make-10player-hof-ballot-at-least-not-yet

In the order he listed them: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Morris, Raines, Schilling, Mattingly, McGriff, Trammel, Biggio.

"Near misses:" Mussina, Martinez, Kent, smith, Walker, Piazza, Bagwell, Sosa,

"Great but Tainted:" Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Palmeiro

"Hall of Extremely Good:" Gonzalez, Alou, Nomo, Rogers

"Hall of Very Good:" Sexson, Casey, Durham, Benitez, J. Jones, Snow, LoDuca, T. Jones, Timlin, Gagne
   1298. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:12 PM (#4632336)
Lee Smith held the all time saves record for 13 years at a time when every relief pitcher wanted to record a lot of saves. I can understand people disagreeing with his candidacy, but I think not being able to see his case is just tunnel vision.
   1299. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:13 PM (#4632339)
In the order he listed them: Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Morris, Raines, Schilling, Mattingly, McGriff, Trammel, Biggio.

Not the worst, but it makes me think he's counting Piazza as a steroid user. I'd like to know based on what? Also, Raines and Trammell!
   1300. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4632347)
The mlb.com vote pushes Piazza below 70%. He's done for this year. The only unknown left is Biggio. All the guys who dropped Biggio due to a maxed out ballot could very well be the difference.
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