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Wednesday, December 25, 2013

The 2013 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

The 2014 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Final: Jan.9 - 11:30 ~ 209* Full Ballots ~ (36.7%* of vote ~ based on last year) (*new ballot/pct. record!)

99.5 - Maddux
95.7 - Glavine
89.0 - F. Thomas
79.4 - Biggio
———————————
67.9 - Piazza
61.7 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
56.5 - Bagwell
54.5 - Raines
42.1 - Bonds
40.7 - Clemens
36.8 - Schilling
26.8 - Mussina
25.4 - E. Martinez
24.4 - L. Smith
22.0 - Trammell
15.8 - Kent
12.0 - McGriff
10.5 - McGwire
  8.1 - L. Walker
  7.2 - S. Sosa
  5.7 - R. Palmeiro
———————————
4.8 - Mattingly
0.5 - P. Rose (Write-In)

Thanks to Butch, Ilychs Morales, leokitty & Barnald for their help.

As usual…send them in if you come across any ballots!

Repoz Posted: December 25, 2013 at 03:56 PM | 2002 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, hof

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   401. brutus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 04:32 PM (#4627318)
Troy Renck ballot: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Edgar Martinez, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell.
   402. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 31, 2013 at 04:44 PM (#4627323)
The other thing that may help glavine is no reason for backlash. No one pegs him too high and he doesn't need to be taken down a notch.

There's the DEATH TO FALSE STRIKE ZONES contingent, with Glavine the chief offender. What would his ERA have been with robot umps? 4.50? 6.29? We'll never know.

I too am surprised by the high support for people other than Maddux. Big change from last year.
   403. Tracy Ringolsby Posted: December 31, 2013 at 04:52 PM (#4627329)
400. TJ Posted: December 31, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4627313)


To Tracy Ringolsby...

Tracy, I think I may have not been clear in my question. I was wondering if you personally- or a feeling among BBWAA voters in general- are putting a degree of pressure on yourselves based on last year's vote. If so is this a factor in the increased numbers of votes cast on individual ballots, or in your opinion the increased number is just a by-product of the backlog of qualified candidates?

Just clarifying so that it is clear I am not rocking a tinfoil hat at the moment...


Personally, no. I voted for 10 last year. This year was actually difficult for me because two playes I in the past felt deserved to be in had to be removed from my ballot for Maddux and Glavine. It's not that I don't feel those two are unworth. I just feel that Glavine and Maddux push the issue.
As for others, I cannot speak for their thoughts.
   404. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 31, 2013 at 04:54 PM (#4627330)
The other thing that may help glavine is no reason for backlash. No one pegs him too high and he doesn't need to be taken down a notch. He can't be the best pitcher ever--look at maddux---so there's no windmills to tilt against him.


My recollection is that Glavine was one of the biggest hawks in the MLBPA during the 1994/1995 unpleasantness. I'm a bit surprised that hasn't been dredged up anywhere.
   405. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: December 31, 2013 at 04:56 PM (#4627333)
Glavine was the primary MLBPA representative during the negotiations, prior to 1994 strike/1995 lockout. He was the face of the players' union during that episode.
   406. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4627337)
#404 - I recall that too.

Glavine was - I believe - pretty vocal during the labor dispute. I'm surprised no one seems to be holding him disproportionately responsible for the strike...

Edit: Thanks Rickey! Glad I'm not crazy.
   407. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:01 PM (#4627339)
There's the DEATH TO FALSE STRIKE ZONES contingent, with Glavine the chief offender. What would his ERA have been with robot umps? 4.50? 6.29? We'll never know.


Tom Glavine never called a ball or a strike. He simply pitched to the zone that was being called. If the zone had been different, he would have pitched differently. He exploited the umpires willingness to call the zone low and away*. He didn't create that zone any more than Randy Johnson created that high and in called strike to LHB that was probably an inch or two off the plate.

*during Sillyball, the strike zone was intentionally called low and wide, in an attempt to give the pitchers "something" to pitch to, while high strikes were virtually unheard of. This wasn't a fact about Tom Glavine or the Braves. It was a fact about the league. Al Leiter and Bob Tewksberry got the same zone.
   408. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:07 PM (#4627342)
Glavine was - I believe - pretty vocal during the labor dispute. I'm surprised no one seems to be holding him disproportionately responsible for the strike...


But that's the difference between 98% support and 95% support. How many such voters can there really be? Glavine is doing much better than I expected, but, in retrospect, I think it makes sense. He's easily one of the top 7-8 guys on this ballot by just about any standard. Yes, you can make an argument that Schilling and/or Mussina were better, but anybody making that argument thinks all three of them are HOF-worthy. I expected him (and Thomas) to run into a few more crowded ballots than he has but, again, most full ballots have guys at the back end of the ballot that it's pretty easy to make the case for Glavine being better (e.g., Martinez, Trammell, Walker). You can construct an argument that Glavine's only the 11th-best player on the ballot, but I think that takes a lot of effort and ends up a fairly weak argument.
   409. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:15 PM (#4627346)
I expected him (and Thomas) to run into a few more crowded ballots


I think it comes down to the fact that most of us expected to see more ballots with 5-6 names on them. I don't know that anyone expected to see a 9-plus average, regardless how appropriate it is in this particular case. If the average ballot was running just a little higher than last year, rather than holy #### higher, I suspect everyone but Maddux would be running closer to what we envisioned.

   410. GregD Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:17 PM (#4627347)
I am pleased that mussina is getting votes enough to remain a viable contender, at least this far. I feared him disappearing in the crush.
   411. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:23 PM (#4627348)
I am pleased that mussina is getting votes enough to remain a viable contender, at least this far. I feared him disappearing in the crush.


Mussina's performance is the biggest surprise to me - probably even moreso than Glavine and Thomas looking like they'll be elected. I figured that he'd be universally regarded as the 4th-best player debuting (maybe even 5th by some big fans of Jeff Kent) and questioned how many voters would be willing (or able) to add 4 first-year players. Similarly, I would have thought that Jeff Kent would have very little chance of surviving the 5% cut, which it looks like he should do.

That said, I do worry that we're seeing the subset of voters willing to add 4-5 names and fill out a full 10-man ballot, while the silent majority will follow historical precedent and keep their ballots a similar size, merely swapping in Greg Maddux in exchange for somebody they voted for last year. We shall see.
   412. LargeBill Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:23 PM (#4627349)
Many on here have decried the notion of separating first ballot Hall of Famers from others saying if a voter thinks a guy is a Hall of Famer then they should vote for him, period. That opinion makes me wonder why so many are surprised Glavine is getting nearly as much support as Maddux. Maddux is no more an automatic Hall of Famer than Glavine. Obviously Maddux was a better pitcher, but automatic is automatic. 300 wins, 5 X a 20 game winner, lots of post season success, 2 CY's & considerable CY support in other seasons means Glavine is every bit as much of a no brainer as Maddux. Less than 5% of the electorate is aware of the slight negatives (in advanced metrics) cited here. His ERA+ might matter if he didn't have the other numbers that equal automatic election. For example if he had Schilling's win total then his ERA+ would be insufficient to over come the reliance on wins in voters minds.

As far as his less than positive history with the union matters, that is negligible since the great majority of writer/voters trend pro-labor anyways.
   413. brutus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:26 PM (#4627351)
I think the question is not so much if Glavine is an "automatic" hall of famer, but whether enough voters would find room on their ballots to include him along with all the other good candidates they've been voting for in the past.
   414. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:30 PM (#4627354)
That opinion makes me wonder why so many are surprised Glavine is getting nearly as much support as Maddux. Maddux is no more an automatic Hall of Famer than Glavine. Obviously Maddux was a better pitcher, but automatic is automatic.


For me, it was always purely about whether the ballot logjam would cost him votes. Otherwise, Maddux-Glavine is similar to the 2007 election when Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn debuted. Both were obvious HOFers, but Ripken was also clearly the better player. Which translated into 5 more votes for Ripken than Gwynn and Gwynn having to sneak into the Hall of Fame with "only" 97.6% of all votes. On a normal ballot, I wouldn't have been at all surprised to see Glavine pull a similar number. My only issue was whether voters would say, for example, "Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, and then everybody else is so indistinguishable that I just won't bother to vote for any of them." So far, nobody's doing that, which is a very good thing.
   415. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:34 PM (#4627356)
And Mussina has crossed the 5% of the total vote threshold!
   416. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:36 PM (#4627358)
And Mussina has crossed the 5% of the total vote threshold!


The "Moose might not get enough support to stay on the ballot" has proved to be the worst pre-Gizmo prediction.
   417. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:39 PM (#4627359)
Tony Renck: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Edgar Martinez, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2013/12/31/my-hall-of-fame-ballot-and-the-explanation-for-it/16195/
   418. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:48 PM (#4627363)
I think it comes down to the fact that most of us expected to see more ballots with 5-6 names on them. I don't know that anyone expected to see a 9-plus average, regardless how appropriate it is in this particular case. If the average ballot was running just a little higher than last year, rather than holy #### higher, I suspect everyone but Maddux would be running closer to what we envisioned.

You're describing me perfectly. I figured Maddux would cruise in with no problem, and I suspected Glavine would get in as well, but Thomas be outside as would everyone else.

Now? Hell, four guys getting in is looking likely. I'd still suspect Biggio falls short (and Morris and everyone else), but four is a very healthy possibility. Heck, five guys isn't entirely impossible, though unlikely. The BBWAA has only elected five in one year once: 1936. Yup, the very first class.

Fun fact about the 1936 vote: it averaged 9.87 names/ballot. That's the most ever, but just think: even back then, some guys left a blank space or two on their ballot.
   419. base ball chick Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:49 PM (#4627364)
sorry wrong thread
   420. base ball chick Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:53 PM (#4627367)
at least the HOF will get SOME fans showing up this year - all the braves and cards fans - and maybe cubs fans.

mah Husband is praying BIG time that biggio doesn't make it in because then he won't have to keep his promise to take me to cooperstown like he been promising me for 15 years
   421. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:55 PM (#4627371)
absolutely amazing hitter. and fielder. and baserunner. can't nobody tell me he would not have been great without steroids, unless people are now insisting he started shooting up in 1990

He was awesome without steroids. Clear 1st ballot Hall of Famer. On track to be a top-15 player of all time. Then he had to go eff it up with the steroids and the late career clown show.
   422. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:57 PM (#4627373)
maybe cubs fans


I assume you mean White Sox fans (LaRussa, Thomas). The only ex-Cubs getting votes this year are Lee Smith and Sammy Sosa, and neither of them are getting into Cooperstown anytime soon without a ticket.

[I'd edit to remove my embarrassment, but that would be unfair to the next three comments. Sorry, I'm apparently a moron.]
   423. jmurph Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:58 PM (#4627374)
Maddux might get a few votes.
   424. brutus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:58 PM (#4627375)
Maddux was a cub
   425. Srul Itza Posted: December 31, 2013 at 05:58 PM (#4627377)
The only ex-Cubs getting votes this year are Lee Smith and Sammy Sosa


Remind me again where Maddux started his career and got his first CYA?
   426. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:05 PM (#4627380)
Maddux was a cub


Damn, I'm an idiot! Sorry.
   427. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:12 PM (#4627383)
Kiko - I completely forgot that too.

Amazing how we associate players with teams.
   428. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:14 PM (#4627384)
Kiko - I completely forgot that too.

Amazing how we associate players with teams.


But I'm a Cubs fan. I live on the North Side of Chicago! I see his retired uniform number when I go to Wrigley Field!! My only excuse is that I had just been talking about Tom Glavine, so was thinking of Maddux in the context of the Braves. Just an unbelievably stupid brain fart.
   429. LargeBill Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:16 PM (#4627387)
Kiko,

We all do it. The worst ones are the typos or mistakes you notice just as you hit the send button on an email. At least you provided some entertainment as we wind down 2013.
   430. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:19 PM (#4627390)
Ha. Sorry Kiko.
   431. John Northey Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:21 PM (#4627391)
As a Jays fan there is some Jays content this year in Bobby Cox (first manager to get the Jays into the playoffs). Morris was briefly a Jay (at a critical time), Raines was an Expo who us Jay fans have to support now. Clemens has 2 of his best years here, but also the start of his downfall. McGriff and Kent both started their ML careers as a Jay with McGriff doing a lot of his best work here. Walker has the Canadian bit plus an ex-Expo. Oh, and forgot for a moment that Frank Thomas was a Jay when he hit his 500th home run...I think most Jay fans try to forget that period.
   432. cardsfanboy Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:24 PM (#4627393)
What about Yankee fans for Torre?
   433. Swedish Chef Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4627394)
Mets fans may want to be there to boo Glavine.
   434. Gamingboy Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:30 PM (#4627397)
Something to note here is that Cooperstown isn't as remote as you'd think and people WILL come no matter what. When I was in Cooperstown for the Ripken/Gwynn induction, there were plenty of Padres fans. Oh, sure, nowhere near the number of Baltimore fans, but still large enough to qualify as a "horde".
   435. Lassus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:48 PM (#4627406)
Mets fans may want to be there to boo Glavine.

God, yes.
   436. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:59 PM (#4627409)
Something to note here is that Cooperstown isn't as remote as you'd think and people WILL come no matter what. When I was in Cooperstown for the Ripken/Gwynn induction, there were plenty of Padres fans. Oh, sure, nowhere near the number of Baltimore fans, but still large enough to qualify as a "horde".

Yes, the difficulty of getting there is grossly over-stated in these parts.
   437. alilisd Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:04 PM (#4627413)
I'm starting to worry a little that only Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas get in this year.


Biggio is definitely not in the clear and Piazza is almost certainly not making it. The good news is Morris falls off the ballot and, even though he generally polls much higher in the non-published ballots, does not look like he's going in!
   438. DL from MN Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:09 PM (#4627415)
Biggio received >66% from the unannounced ballots last year. That needs to increase to 72% in order for him to make it assuming the announced ballot % doesn't change.
   439. alilisd Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:11 PM (#4627416)
I think it comes down to the fact that most of us expected to see more ballots with 5-6 names on them. I don't know that anyone expected to see a 9-plus average, regardless how appropriate it is in this particular case.


Yep, I'm stunned at the number of full ballots, as well as those with eight or nine!
   440. brutus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:12 PM (#4627417)
Howard Bryant: Morris, Glavine, Maddux, Thomas...that's it.
   441. Repoz Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:14 PM (#4627418)
The (!!!!) Howard Bryant HOF Ballot: Maddux, Glavine, F. Thomas, J. Morris.
   442. alilisd Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:16 PM (#4627419)
Biggio received >66% from the unannounced ballots last year. That needs to increase to 72% in order for him to make it assuming the announced ballot % doesn't change.


Oh, that's not good! I thought he was looking better than that since he was still over 80% on the gizmo. Still, if the fuller ballot trend carries over to the unpublished ballots, maybe he makes it.
   443. LargeBill Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:18 PM (#4627421)
440. brutus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 06:12 PM (#4627417)
Howard Bryant: Morris, Glavine, Maddux, Thomas...that's it.


Wow, he's like a Chass clone (clone, clown, whatever). And just in case there is any confusion, no that is not a compliment.
   444. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:19 PM (#4627423)
Oh, that's not good! I thought he was looking better than that since he was still over 80% on the gizmo. Still, if the fuller ballot trend carries over to the unpublished ballots, maybe he makes it.

No reason to think the larger ballot trend won't carry over.
   445. John Northey Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:27 PM (#4627425)
Still glad to see at least 3 real candidates on it. Even the dumbest ballots have had Maddux so far and Thomas/Glavine are on many too. Big change from last year.
   446. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:31 PM (#4627427)
That's actually a big improvement for Bryant. Last year he sent in a blank ballot.
   447. Srul Itza Posted: December 31, 2013 at 07:32 PM (#4627428)
I understand and appreciate Mr. Ringolsby's point about the counterproductive nature of getting personally insulting over the vote.

But when you see a ballot like Howard Bryant's . . .

EDIT:
Last year he sent in a blank ballot.


So he's a serial assclown, then. No real reason for restraint.
   448. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 08:07 PM (#4627439)
John Delcos' Ballot

Piazza, Bagwell, Biggio, Glavine, Maddux, Martinez, Morris, Mussina, Raines, Thomas
   449. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 31, 2013 at 08:09 PM (#4627440)
Yep, I'm stunned at the number of full ballots, as well as those with eight or nine!

Someone needs to compare these "How I Voted" columns with the actual ballots when posted by the BBWAA, to make some aren't sandbagging the Gizmo.
   450. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 31, 2013 at 08:11 PM (#4627441)
I'm putting the over-under for Morris at 64.8 on the Gizmo. Over and he's in, under and he's not. Silent majority will raise him 10.2% above Giz.
   451. Repoz Posted: December 31, 2013 at 08:15 PM (#4627444)
Small ballots continue...Mark Kreidler: Maddux, Thomas, Biggio, Glavine.
   452. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 31, 2013 at 08:18 PM (#4627445)
Small ballots continue...Mark Kreidler: Maddux, Thomas, Biggio, Glavine.


On the one hand, leaving six blank spots is terrible on a ballot this stacked. But, on the somewhat bright side, he did vote for the four guys most likely to be elected. If all 4 of them go in and Morris drops off (which he'll do either way), the logjam will be a bit less next year, even with Randy Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, and Sheffield (who I expect to get very little support) coming on.
   453. John Northey Posted: December 31, 2013 at 08:50 PM (#4627453)
I'd get a laugh if a batch of players started telling these writers to get off their high horse when it comes to the HOF voting, but they won't.

What would be funny though is if a HOF'er would admit to using PED's in a very clear fashion and tell the writers to get off their high horse as you cannot tell by just looking who used and who didn't. It'd be funny if Maddux got in with a record percentage then made that speech.
   454. Srul Itza Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:12 PM (#4627462)
It looks like Thomas is trending up, and Biggio is trending down.
   455. DA Baracus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:20 PM (#4627464)
It'd be funny if Maddux got in with a record percentage then made that speech.


Maximum shock value would be Frank Thomas.
   456. LargeBill Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:28 PM (#4627470)
455. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 31, 2013 at 08:20 PM (#4627464)

It'd be funny if Maddux got in with a record percentage then made that speech.

Maximum shock value would be Frank Thomas.


Agree it would be maximum shock value, but his strong and consistent stance against PED's is why it can't be him. Someone like Maddux who (AFAIK) hasn't been vocal about PED's but is assumed to be clean could make a strong statement.
   457. DA Baracus Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:31 PM (#4627472)
his strong and consistent stance against PED's is why it can't be him.


Hmm, yeah on second thought you're right. Thomas would be like Palmerio. Squeaky clean Maddux would be better.
   458. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:34 PM (#4627474)
The simplest way to find out whether Greg Maddux was a roider is to test the urine on all the Braves rookies' legs.
   459. TJ Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:37 PM (#4627475)
OK fellow primates, I ask you this- would you rather see:

A. Full ten person ballot- nine solid votes (you pick) and a vote for Jack Morris.
B. Six person ballot without a vote for Jack Morris.

Death not an option...

   460. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:45 PM (#4627476)
Can I pick which 6?
   461. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:45 PM (#4627477)
OK fellow primates, I ask you this- would you rather see:

A. Full ten person ballot- nine solid votes (you pick) and a vote for Jack Morris.
B. Six person ballot without a vote for Jack Morris.

Death not an option...


I've been kind of approving of option A throughout this year's vote-revealing process, and option B drives me nuts.
   462. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: December 31, 2013 at 09:56 PM (#4627481)
OK fellow primates, I ask you this- would you rather see:

A. Full ten person ballot- nine solid votes (you pick) and a vote for Jack Morris.
B. Six person ballot without a vote for Jack Morris.

Death not an option...


Option A and it's by such a comically wide margin that this doesn't even qualify as any "death is not an option" question. Sins of inclusion don't bug me nearly as much as sins of exclusion.

Also - Jack Morris is going into Cooperstown. If he doesn't go in 2014, he'll go when the VC has its first crack at him - in 2017.
   463. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:01 PM (#4627484)
I'd rather see Ballot A. A six person ballot means that four deserving candidates are excluded whereas Ballot A means only one deserving candidate is excluded.
   464. LargeBill Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:05 PM (#4627485)
462 Dag, Why do people assume the VC will elect Morris? VC has shown little ability to coalesce around any candidate. Frankie Frisch ain't running that group anymore.
   465. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:07 PM (#4627486)
A, it's all about the logjam, Jack Morris is collateral damage. Generals have been weighing these decisions for centuries and sometimes we lose a few for the victory.
   466. MelOtt4 Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:10 PM (#4627487)
With all due respect to players like Tim Raines and Alan Trammell my choice is option B.
   467. rawagman Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:17 PM (#4627490)
A and there is no hesitation. Once Morris gets in - and I have no doubt that he will - he just gets added to the pile. Until then, the discussion will not cease. We need to get past this to advance the discussion.
   468. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:25 PM (#4627491)
462 Dag, Why do people assume the VC will elect Morris? VC has shown little ability to coalesce around any candidate. Frankie Frisch ain't running that group anymore.

They've gone back to the classic format - 12 guys in a room. They haven't inducted any of the more recent players - but then again the best candidates this year were the managers.

Also, for my favorite Hall of Fame factoid. Below is a complete list of every player not currently on the ballot who received 50% of the BBWAA vote at least once and isn't currently in Cooperstown:

Gil Hodges.

That's it. Every single other person to get a majority of the BBWAA vote even just once (aside from guys currently on the ballot) is in Cooperstown. They weren't all inducted by the BBWAA. Nellie Fox, Jim Bunning, and others went to the VC - but the VC puts those guys in. The VC basically does two things: 1) induct the guys with the most BBWAA support who didn't get to 75%, and 2) pick completely random guys.

Morris will go in. I can't imagine him getting left out at this point.
   469. Morty Causa Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:31 PM (#4627494)
Morris needs to be elected so that we can get pass this to advance the discussion? This is starting to sound like restructuring world order after WWII. It's only another stupid, worthless men's club.
   470. MelOtt4 Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:36 PM (#4627495)
I'd take my changes on the veterans committee at the very least making Jack Morris wait it out a couple of years.

   471. Srul Itza At Home Posted: December 31, 2013 at 11:00 PM (#4627504)
Option A.

I would choose Option J over Option B.
   472. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 11:40 PM (#4627512)
Also, for my favorite Hall of Fame factoid. Below is a complete list of every player not currently on the ballot who received 50% of the BBWAA vote at least once and isn't currently in Cooperstown:

Gil Hodges.


Below is a list of the black people elected President before 2008:


Nobody.


This kind of argument is basest fallacy.
   473. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 31, 2013 at 11:47 PM (#4627514)
As noted above, Mussina is over the 30-vote mark and the likely 5% line. Next up is Trammell, seven away.

Dag, think Lee Smith will be Hodges' longtime/permanent teammate on that 50% list?
   474. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 31, 2013 at 11:50 PM (#4627515)
@472

Gil Hodges is also the first person to reach 50% and be elected to neither the Hall nor the White House.
   475. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:05 AM (#4627518)
OK fellow primates, I ask you this- would you rather see:

A. Full ten person ballot- nine solid votes (you pick) and a vote for Jack Morris.
B. Six person ballot without a vote for Jack Morris.

Death not an option...


Option B and it's not close for me. Morris being in the HoF is just dumb. I don't really care if the 10th-20th best player of an era (like a Biggio type) is in Cooperstown or not.
   476. lieiam Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:19 AM (#4627521)
@474

I had to look this up, but Samuel Tilden in the 1st year of the National League reached 50% and didn't get elected to the White House.
   477. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 01, 2014 at 03:24 AM (#4627536)
Morris needs to be elected so that we can get pass this to advance the discussion?

I don't think anyone said this. If you're referring to Dag, my interpretation of his position was that Morris's eventual election is likely enough that a vote for him doesn't add enough of a negative to a ballot to outweigh the positive of three additional votes for deserving players.
   478. brutus Posted: January 01, 2014 at 04:34 AM (#4627537)
Jose de Jesus Ortiz ballot:
Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Kent, Maddux, Mussina, Piazza, Schilling
   479. Baldrick Posted: January 01, 2014 at 06:00 AM (#4627541)
I have to say that the first thing I look for in a ballot is whether they include Morris. I'm not proud of that, necessarily, and I would definitely rationally choose Option A over B.

But I also can't deny that the Morris votes just drive me NUTS in a way that other terrible ballots don't.
   480. gabrielthursday Posted: January 01, 2014 at 07:03 AM (#4627547)
Option B - Morris is just such an appalling candidate, though no worse than Jim Rice or Bruce Sutter; still, one has to draw the line. Next year, we won't be at risk of being elected, and I can again insist on the worthiness of Trammell, Schilling, Walker et al. They aren't getting in this year anyway, and I don't think a one-year drop under the circumstances of a crowded ballot is particularly troublesome.

The thing I'd be worried about if voters as a whole actually averaged 6 names per ballot is worthy candidates dropping off, especially Walker and Martinez. I'm probably in the minority here, but the fact that Kenny Lofton didn't get the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot last year was appalling; reasonable people can disagree about his worthiness, but I think more than a single year (especially one with such a crowded and confused ballot) was definitely necessary. I'm glad to see Kent looks like he'll have enough support to stay on (even though, ultimately, I would vote Lofton in and leave Kent out).
   481. Oscar Geronimo Posted: January 01, 2014 at 07:39 AM (#4627548)
Great results so far. I remember a thread back in August where I predicted Frank Thomas would sail in on the first ballot. Nobody agreed with me, with the #1 riposte that the electorate would find a way to mess it up. What happened?
   482. Morty Causa Posted: January 01, 2014 at 08:27 AM (#4627549)
477:

See 467.
   483. Pete L. Posted: January 01, 2014 at 09:14 AM (#4627551)
Roch Kubatko ballot:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2014/01/my-hall-of-fame-ballot-1.html

Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas
   484. Adam B. Posted: January 01, 2014 at 09:20 AM (#4627554)
[jinxed on the Roch Kubatko ballot, deleted. He's a +1 for Morris, and removed Lee Smith from past ballots.]
   485. Don Malcolm Posted: January 01, 2014 at 10:18 AM (#4627559)
I had to look this up, but Samuel Tilden in the 1st year of the National League reached 50% and didn't get elected to the White House.


"Sudden" Sam Tilden was the Derek Jeter of his times--brutal in the field, and without the mitigating "charm" of the gift basket. He was done in by the very first incarnation of the Veterans' Committee. As Casey would say, you could look it up.
   486. Lassus Posted: January 01, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4627566)
- waits impatiently for Repoz to crawl out of Die Antwoord's drum set and update the count -
   487. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 01, 2014 at 10:54 AM (#4627567)
Roch Kubatko ballot:

Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas


More from Kubatko, who is a Baltimore-area writer:

- He says he won't vote for PED candidates...for now. "I'm still not including PED guys, though that may change in the future. I have no idea. It's an issue that many of us wrestle with each winter."

- He hasn't voted for 10 before: "For once, I needed more than 10 votes. And imagine what happens next year with Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz becoming eligible."

Many, many voters realize they need to try to clear the decks ASAP. They also know that they will eventually have to deal with Bonds and Clemens, and maybe McGwire and Sosa. If they are more than halfway to 75% already, then once the next two or three years of slam-dunk candidates go through the system (Pedro, Randy Johnson, and Smoltz next year; then Griffey; then IRod, Manny Ramirez, and Vlad; Clemens and Bonds will still be on the ballot, probably slowly gaining support, approaching 50% in a few years...and then, there will be room on the ballots again. I think a voter like this votes for them in three or four years.

I am imaging the scene on Induction Day in seven or eight years when Bonds and Clemens get in - probably together - and have to give a speech where they thank the writers for voting them in. Two of the true greatest players ever, having to wait a decade to squeak in with 77% or something...the most anticlimactic acceptance speech you'll ever see. Perhaps the writers will unwittingly do what MLB quietly hopes - that they get recognized for their on-field greatness, but get punished in some unofficial way.

   488. DL from MN Posted: January 01, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4627581)
then IRod, Manny Ramirez, and Vlad


Manny's a roider, he's not going to do much better than Sosa or Palmeiro.
   489. Wahoo Sam Posted: January 01, 2014 at 11:56 AM (#4627583)
Living in Michigan, I constantly hear from Tigers fans: "If [INSERT FORMER TIGER STAR HERE] had played for the Yankees or Red Sox, he'd be in the Hall of Fame."

Well, that just doesn't pass the muster. See Don Mattingly, Willie Randolph, the wait for Goose Gossage. How about Dewey Evans and Reggie Smith? Two worthy outfield candidates, and they haven't gotten in based on an "east coast" bias. The biggest bias the Hall of Fame has had is toward friends of Frankie Frisch. The next biggest is white guys who played in the 1920s and 1930s. There's also one for the 19th century Giants and Orioles players. But all of those biases have been dead for years.
   490. alilisd Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:10 PM (#4627591)
Snapper, the numbers DL posted in 438 seem to indicate it's possible.
   491. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:19 PM (#4627600)
We're now at half the sample of the final Gizmo from last year, and Bonds and Clemens still have almost the same exact tallies that they did then.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that the ballots being collected are from virtually the same exact group of people as a year ago, and hardly anyone is changing their mind.
   492. maven of all things baseball Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4627602)
Does anyone have a feel for the chances of Maddux getting to 98.9%. For myself, I wonder if the 5 guys who didn't vote for Seaver (22 years ago) are still submitting ballots - did any of them ever come clean?
   493. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:27 PM (#4627604)
Jose de Jesus Ortiz ballot:
Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Kent, Maddux, Mussina, Piazza, Schilling


So Jose de Jesus Ortiz is pretty much officially Patron Saint of BBTF HOF voting now, right?
   494. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:30 PM (#4627605)
De Jesus Ortiz on why his ballot looks like it does:

On crowded ballot with a limit of 10, had to make tough choices & evaluate all aspects. DH guys - Thomas and Martinez - fell short for me.
   495. Morty Causa Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4627606)
My spirits were buoyed, seeing Piazza getting close to the line there for a while, but it looks like he's gone down a bit.
   496. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 01, 2014 at 12:39 PM (#4627609)
Does anyone have a feel for the chances of Maddux getting to 98.9%. For myself, I wonder if the 5 guys who didn't vote for Seaver (22 years ago) are still submitting ballots - did any of them ever come clean?


I think the only ballots that omit Maddux will be blanks. Now I don't know if sending blank ballots is a recent anti-roid triggered phenomena, but if that's the case, then I'm sure there's still enough of those hardliners to make it tough for Maddux to top 98%.
   497. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 01, 2014 at 01:09 PM (#4627624)
IIRC, there were five blank ballots last year and all five were published. At least one writer who submitted a blank ballot last year is not submitting one this year.
   498. TJ Posted: January 01, 2014 at 01:28 PM (#4627630)
Did I miss something? I know Cowlishaw didn't vote for Glavine- anyone know if someone else didn't?
   499. maven of all things baseball Posted: January 01, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4627633)

I think the only ballots that omit Maddux will be blanks. Now I don't know if sending blank ballots is a recent anti-roid triggered phenomena,


According to an article I read from Hal Bodley ( http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/columnist/bodley/2006-12-21-bodley-ripken-hall_x.htm ) the 5 "non-Seaver" ballots included 3 writers who submitted a "blank" in protest re: Pete Rose not being on the ballot. Of the other two, one was supposedly an oversight by a writer recovering from heart surgery who didn't see Seaver's name on the ballot (really?!? Seaver snuck up on him?) and the final one was by a writer who NEVER votes for first-time-on-the-ballot candidates. My curiosity revolves around those 5 guys. Have they ever been "outed?"
   500. ursus arctos Posted: January 01, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4627638)
and Howard Bryant, who submitted a blank ballot last year, has filled in a handful of names this time around, so we are down to three possible recidivists.

Personally, I think that it is quite likely that there are one or two voters who are ideologically committed to the principle that no one should be unanimous.

498, Mike Dyer published a Glavine-free ballot yesterday. Repos tweeted it, but it doesn't seem to be in this thread.
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