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Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The 8 most fearsome MLB hitters since 2000 | FOX Sports

One of these things is not like the others.

Derek Jeter
Not all heroes wear capes and not all fearsome hitters are home run kings. Wearer of the most recently retired New York Yankees jersey, Jeter possessed the same debatable “clutch” gene as Ortiz. He was more powerful than your average shortstop but most importantly had a knack for being a very challenging out and coming up huge in the postseason.

His powers were in full bloom in the 2000 postseason when he ripped four home runs combined in the ALCS and World Series, earning the World Series MVP Award after collecting five extra base hits and three walks, batting .409 in the 5-game Subway Series title over the Mets. And then he hit a walk-off single in his very last game at Yankee Stadium in ‘14. What a career.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 16, 2017 at 10:24 AM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hitters

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   1. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 16, 2017 at 10:45 AM (#5456318)
Jeets is 30th since 2000 in Fangraphs batting runs. A-Rod is 3rd., Utley is 23rd.
   2. Man o' Schwar Posted: May 16, 2017 at 11:33 AM (#5456376)
Jeets is 30th since 2000 in Fangraphs batting runs. A-Rod is 3rd., Utley is 23rd.

You have to adjust using the Fear Index. It's like the Leverage Index for relief pitchers, but it's tied to how fearsome a hitter is as measured by his intangibles and overall clutchitude.

Jeter's actual results may put him down the page, but when multiplied by a FI higher than anyone since DiMaggio, he ends up easily in the top 5.
   3. dlf Posted: May 16, 2017 at 11:56 AM (#5456404)
I thought perhaps with the inside-out doubles swing he could have had very good leverage splits, but the data doesn't really support it. For his career, his tOPS+ with no one on was 101 vs. 98 with runners on and 99 with runners in scoring position. Take out the Sac Fly issue and it looks like he was measurably, but not significantly, better without runners. Two outs and runner in scoring position was 101, late and close 91, and from tied, within 1 run, 2, 3, and 4+ all were within a range of 100 to 102. Basically, he was who he was.
   4. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 16, 2017 at 12:06 PM (#5456420)
I assume Jim Rice is still at least in the top five?
   5. Jacob Posted: May 16, 2017 at 12:07 PM (#5456424)
I can't think of anybody, but Jason Giambi was a much better hitter. Ichiro would make more sense than Jeter. Mark Teixeira would've been better and those are just the Yankees. All the others on the list are good picks.
   6. TomH Posted: May 16, 2017 at 12:14 PM (#5456430)
How to best measure "coming up huge in the post-season"? How about WPA in baseball-reference.com? It accounts for clutch situations in every game.

Jeter's post-season WPA is .. well, let me wait a while before I post it. Jetes played in about one full "season" equivalent of games in WC, Div, LCS, and WS. His career WAA per bb-ref is 30.4 wins in over 16 full seasons. His post-season OPS is about the same as his regular season OPS. So recall all of those glorious post-season moments, and guess how much he added in clutch October and November games.
   7. TDF, situational idiot Posted: May 16, 2017 at 12:24 PM (#5456442)
It feels a bit too soon to put the uber-talented Trout and Harper in the same class, although they’re on their way. Incredibly they’re both still just 25 years old and 24, respectively. It would help Trout if the Angels were more competitive and gave him a chance to shine in October.
From '00-'14 Jeter had 236 BBRef batting runs. From '11-today, Trout has 316.

But really, the list of people who were obviously more "fearsome" than Jeter is long. Prince Fielder totaled 240 rBat just from '07-'12. Jeter's highest season by rBat in this century is 36; Joey Votto has exceeded that every full season since his rookie year.
   8. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 16, 2017 at 12:32 PM (#5456447)
Highest in wOBA since 2000 (min 4,000 PAs).

1) Bonds .490
2) Manny .421
3) Votto .410
4) Helton .406
5) Cabrera .404
6) Thome .402
7) Berkman .402
8) Pujols .401
9) Giambi .400
10) A-Rod .397
...
15) Ortiz .394
...
17) Vlad .389
...
70) Jeter .355


   9. bfan Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:00 PM (#5456488)
I am guessing that the author put Jeter in there just to troll for comments. 70th seems about right to me, as a ranking for his hitting.
   10. The Duke Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:11 PM (#5456504)
He's also the best defensive SS of his generation - look at the gold gloves
   11. ESPaul Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:21 PM (#5456527)
Jeter is both overrated (by mainstream media, casual fans) and underrated (by folks like us). Thought this take by Joe Pos got it right.
   12. TomH Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:22 PM (#5456528)
Jeter's post-season WPA = (drumroll) zero point zero. He was exactly average with the bat. In contrast, Ortiz has a WPA of 3.2; more than 3 wins or about 30 runs better.

If we use post-season WPA as a key tool for greatness, Mariano Rivera dwarfs everyone like Ruth's home run totals in the early 1920s.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:23 PM (#5456531)
I suspect that pure SLG tracks fearsomeness better than wOBA. (Joey Votto takes more walks than Giancarlo Stanton ... oooh, scary!!)
   14. BDC Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:45 PM (#5456557)
I suspect that pure SLG tracks fearsomeness better than wOBA. (Joey Votto takes more walks than Giancarlo Stanton ... oooh, scary!!)

That would be my impression. If you take guys with high BA and OPS , both weighted toward SLG, but low walk rates, you find guys like Vlad Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Magglio Ordonez – two guys I'd always be afraid would kill the Rangers, and Hamilton being the one I had the most hope would kill the opponent :)

One of the best of that type of hitter since 2000 has been Ryan Braun. I haven't seen him play much, if ever, but he's hit .304, lots of 2B and HR, not many BB or even SO by 2000s standards, two slugging titles. NL Central fans can tell me if they are much afraid of the guy, or at least were when he was younger and taking his supplements …
   15. PreservedFish Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:51 PM (#5456570)
Using SLG bumps up guys like Ortiz, Guerrero, Delgado and Stanton. Bumps down guys like Helton, Berkman and Giles. It's a better measure of fearsomeness.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:53 PM (#5456573)
Also, am I racist? I didn't intend to call out 4 Latinos as fearsome, and 3 white guys as less so. Just happened that way.

edit: "Stanton is mostly of Irish and African-American descent. His maternal great-grandmother was Puerto Rican." Is he Latino? Who knows.
   17. Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist Posted: May 16, 2017 at 01:57 PM (#5456576)
One of the best of that type of hitter since 2000 has been Ryan Braun. I haven't seen him play much, if ever, but he's hit .304, lots of 2B and HR, not many BB or even SO by 2000s standards, two slugging titles. NL Central fans can tell me if they are much afraid of the guy, or at least were when he was younger and taking his supplements …

Yes, but also his career line against the Cubs is .339/.413/.594 with 31HRs in 141 games. So...
   18. JohnQ Posted: May 16, 2017 at 02:12 PM (#5456588)
Here's the OWAR from 2000-2017:

1-A. Pujols-101.9
2-M. Cabrera-84.8
3-A-Rod-84.5
4-D. Ortiz-75.6
5-C. Beltran-65.8
6-B. Bonds-64.6
7-L. Berkman-63.4
8-M. Ramirez-61.2
9-B. Abreu-60.9
10-A. Beltre-60.4
11-T. Helton-59.9
12-C. Jones-59.3
13-D. Jeter-59.2

Here's the top OWAA from 2000-2017

1-A. Pujols-68.4
2-M. Cabrera-54.4
3-B. Bonds-52.3
4-A-Rod-52.3
5-D. Ortiz-42.0
6-L. Berkman-40.0
7-M. Ramirez-39.9
8-J. Votto-37.7
9-C. Jones-37.5
10-M. Trout-36.0
11-T. Helton-35.6
12-M. Holiday-34.2
13-C. Beltran-33.9
13-R. Braun-33.9


   19. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 16, 2017 at 02:25 PM (#5456605)

I think you have to look at this as a peak more than a career kind of thing. Even if Bryce Harper gets hit by a bus tomorrow, his 2015 ranks up there among the "most feared" hitters of this century. Likewise for 2006 Ryan Howard, or peak Jim Thome.

For what it's worth, this seems like a decent starting point for such a list:

                                                
Rk              Player IBB From   To   Age    PA
1          Barry Bonds 390 2000 2007 35-42  4072
2        Albert Pujols 304 2001 2017 21-37 10716
3       Miguel Cabrera 223 2003 2017 20-34  9114
4    Vladimir Guerrero 221 2000 2011 25-36  7327
5          David Ortiz 206 2000 2016 24-40  9689
6        Ichiro Suzuki 180 2001 2017 27-43 10514
7        Manny Ramirez 178 2000 2011 28-39  6211
8          Todd Helton 174 2000 2013 26-39  8100
9       Prince Fielder 164 2005 2016 21-32  6853
10       Lance Berkman 160 2000 2013 24-37  7708
11     Adrian Gonzalez 155 2004 2017 22-35  7712
12         Ryan Howard 154 2004 2016 24-36  6531
13      Carlos Delgado 151 2000 2009 28-37  5938
14       Chipper Jones 149 2000 2012 28-40  7228
15           Joe Mauer 137 2004 2017 21-34  6946
16           Jim Thome 123 2000 2012 29-41  6531
17           Adam Dunn 122 2001 2014 21-34  8328
18          Joey Votto 115 2007 2017 23-33  5597
19     Victor Martinez 113 2002 2017 23-38  7364
20       Robinson Cano 102 2005 2017 22-34  7997


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/16/2017.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: May 16, 2017 at 02:28 PM (#5456607)
To add to 19... Derek Jeter is at 9706 pa with 32 IBB, just missing the top twenty in 166th place. (I was about to post listing of ibb and noticed that it was just posted)

I think IBB is a great place to start at the fear point, and notice the non-powered Ichiro is pretty high up there, so it's not like it's just homeruns that scare pitchers.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: May 16, 2017 at 02:34 PM (#5456614)

1 Barry Bonds
2 Albert Pujols
3 Miguel Cabrera
4 Vlad Guerrero
5 David Ortiz


That's an entirely reasonable list.
   22. JohnQ Posted: May 16, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5456619)
He kind of flew under the radar but I didn't realize how good Lance Berkman was:

.293/.406/.537, 144 ops+, 366HR, 1146runs, 1234rbi, 1475 runs created, 3172 times on base, 51.7 WAR (174th all time position players), 28.0 WAA (143rd all time position players).
   23. Khrushin it bro Posted: May 16, 2017 at 02:42 PM (#5456625)
Beltran could be put on there after that one postseason when he hit about 80 HR's for the Astros.
   24. TDF, situational idiot Posted: May 16, 2017 at 02:44 PM (#5456627)
(Joey Votto takes more walks than Giancarlo Stanton ... oooh, scary!!)
Joey Votto SLG .537 in 5600 PA; Giancarlo Stanton SLG .539 in 3588 PA.
   25. Man o' Schwar Posted: May 16, 2017 at 03:37 PM (#5456702)
Here's the top OWAA from 2000-2017

1-A. Pujols-68.4
2-M. Cabrera-54.4
3-B. Bonds-52.3
4-A-Rod-52.3
5-D. Ortiz-42.0
6-L. Berkman-40.0
7-M. Ramirez-39.9
8-J. Votto-37.7
9-C. Jones-37.5
10-M. Trout-36.0


If we're evaluating over this time period, Trout's numbers should really be adjusted. Who can calculate his Little League Equivalency scores (LLEq)? Does he get Camp-Time credit for that summer his parents made him spend with his grandparents?
   26. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: May 16, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5456723)
That would be my impression. If you take guys with high BA and OPS , both weighted toward SLG, but low walk rates, you find guys like Vlad Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Magglio Ordonez – two guys I'd always be afraid would kill the Rangers, and Hamilton being the one I had the most hope would kill the opponent :)


Sheffield is another guy with about the quickest hands I've seen. He peaked in the '90s, but from 2000-2009, he had 718 BBs vs. 621 Ks, and a .294/.394/.527 (140 OPS+).
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: May 16, 2017 at 04:49 PM (#5456789)
Beltran could be put on there after that one postseason when he hit about 80 HR's for the Astros.


Beltran's post season is more than one post season though, and it's probably one of the best of all time. .323/.432/.646/1.078 over 55 games, 235 pa, 16 hr, 45 runs, and 41 rbi. (along with 11 sb and 0 CS) Most of the time also playing plus defense, I imagine his waa in the post season would be among the all time leaders, if not top... Jeter probably beats him in post season War due to much more pa, but I can't imagine he beats him in waa...

Edit: actually looking it over, Jeter still probably beats Beltran there, roughly looks to me like Jeter put up about a 5.0 waa and 7 war in the post season(assuming he played average defensively, which doesn't seem like a stretch), while Beltran looks closer to 3.5 Waa 2.7 War. (rough estimates of course)
   28. TDF, situational idiot Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:17 PM (#5456826)
Jeter put up about a 5.0 waa and 7 war in the post season(assuming he played average defensively, which doesn't seem like a stretch)
From '96-'12 (Jeter and the Yankees were in the postseason every one of those seasons except one) Jeter averaged -12 Rfield/650 PA during the regular season. It seems like a very big stretch to assume he played average defense in the postseason those years.
   29. cardsfanboy Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:22 PM (#5456833)
From '96-'12 (Jeter and the Yankees were in the postseason every one of those seasons except one) Jeter averaged -12 Rfield/650 PA during the regular season. It seems like a very big stretch to assume he played average defense in the postseason those years.


He played a bit over his head offensively, it doesn't seem like a stretch to me that he probably played over his head a bit defensively also. But we don't have defensive data to back it up, if you assume -10 rField, that gives him about a 4.0 waa and 6 war.(roughly of course, arom or someone else would probably come up with more accurate numbers)
   30. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:48 PM (#5456855)

To add to 19... Derek Jeter is at 9706 pa with 32 IBB, just missing the top twenty in 166th place. (I was about to post listing of ibb and noticed that it was just posted)

I think IBB is a great place to start at the fear point, and notice the non-powered Ichiro is pretty high up there, so it's not like it's just homeruns that scare pitchers.


Yes, although I don't think it's entirely fair to penalize Jeter for not getting intentionally walked when he spent his career batting in front of guys like A-Rod, Cano, Bernie Williams, Giambi, Sheffield, etc.

Likewise, Ichiro played on some great offensive teams at the beginning of his career, but also some real stinkers later on.
   31. JMD Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:58 PM (#5456867)
Where's Judge?
   32. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 16, 2017 at 05:58 PM (#5456869)
Stanton is mostly of Irish and African-American descent. His maternal great-grandmother was Puerto Rican." Is he Latino? Who knows


Pitchers say he's a mix of monster, giant, and warrior, with a dash of hero. His mother apparently held him by his left hand when she dipped him in the river Styx.
   33. QLE Posted: May 16, 2017 at 09:23 PM (#5457070)
Jeter is both overrated (by mainstream media, casual fans) and underrated (by folks like us).


I wonder how much of it is a legitimately intangible item- for whatever reason, it seems that shortstops are either vastly overqualified for the HOF/HOM or clearly far short (the only marginals I see are Sewell, Fletcher, and Bancroft), and I wonder if that makes Jeter seem a little weaker than he would if he played a position where there were more clearly comparable players.

And, as for #22- Berkman falls short of the HOF/HOM with my methodology- but he'd be the best among left-fielders among those not in.
   34. TDF, situational idiot Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:31 AM (#5457286)
Jeter is both overrated (by mainstream media, casual fans) and underrated (by folks like us).
I don't agree with this at all. I can't say I've met or talked to a single person who underrates him.

There's no one here who doesn't think he's a solid, no doubt HOFer (or HOMer). It's when you get past that ("among the most fearsome hitters of the 2000s") that he's misjudged.
   35. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:49 AM (#5457296)
There's no one here who doesn't think he's a solid, no doubt HOFer (or HOMer).


It's rare and I think the consensus rating of him here is about right (which is just another way of saying I agree with the consensus rating here, of course), but I've seen sabermetric arguments that his defense was so bad he wasn't a deserving Hall-of-Famer. Somebody just posted something to this effect on the SABR-L e-mail list (David Kaiser, maybe; I can't recall if he went so far as to say Jeter didn't belong in the Hall of Fame). I think GuyM has made particularly strong anti-Jeter arguments here at BBTF in the past (I believe he's argued that BB-Ref actually over-rates Jeter's fielding).
   36. dlf Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:50 AM (#5457297)
There's no one here who doesn't think he's a solid, no doubt HOFer (or HOMer).


GuyM - he focuses on various range factor like stats to show that Jeter's defense was so bad that his "real" WAR is something like 30-50 and solely driven by longevity.

Edit: what type of cola flavored beverage would you prefer?
   37. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: May 17, 2017 at 09:54 AM (#5457300)
Joey Votto SLG .537 in 5600 PA; Giancarlo Stanton SLG .539 in 3588 PA.


Career w/RISP

Votto: .335 ba/.591 slg
Giancarlo: .267 ba/.496 slg
   38. TDF, situational idiot Posted: May 17, 2017 at 10:07 AM (#5457306)
There's no one here who doesn't think he's a solid, no doubt HOFer (or HOMer).

GuyM - he focuses on various range factor like stats to show that Jeter's defense was so bad that his "real" WAR is something like 30-50 and solely driven by longevity.
The exception that proves the rule?

Anyway, the second part of that ("WAR is...driven by longevity") is true for everyone, since it's a counting stat.
   39. dlf Posted: May 17, 2017 at 10:18 AM (#5457312)
Anyway, the second part of that ("WAR is...driven by longevity") is true for everyone, since it's a counting stat.


I know that this is a debate (there was a recent thread on Pennants Added methodology recently, etc.) but I think 10-10-10-10-10 (i.e. Mike Trout) is worth more than 5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 and a whole lot more than 2-2-2-2-..... Not trying to speak for the other poster, but he appears to have an even more extreme view of that.
   40. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 17, 2017 at 11:30 AM (#5457369)

I know that this is a debate (there was a recent thread on Pennants Added methodology recently, etc.) but I think 10-10-10-10-10 (i.e. Mike Trout) is worth more than 5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 and a whole lot more than 2-2-2-2-..... Not trying to speak for the other poster, but he appears to have an even more extreme view of that.

I don't even think there's much of a debate around that point. To me the more interesting debate is whether 8-2-8-2 is worth more than 5-5-5-5, for example.
   41. Batman Posted: May 17, 2017 at 11:43 AM (#5457379)
If we're evaluating over this time period, Trout's numbers should really be adjusted. Who can calculate his Little League Equivalency scores (LLEq)? Does he get Camp-Time credit for that summer his parents made him spend with his grandparents?
A good player in Little League will hit around .700 with good power and walks in about half his plate appearances, but that walk rate applies to everyone in Little League. Trout probably hit 1.750/5.000/infinity in LL.
   42. Swoboda is freedom Posted: May 17, 2017 at 12:12 PM (#5457428)
Pitchers say he's a mix of monster, giant, and warrior, with a dash of hero. His mother apparently held him by his left hand when she dipped him in the river Styx.

Stanton's mother clearly held him by the left cheek when she dipped him, which is why the ball was able to hurt him there.
   43. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: May 17, 2017 at 12:17 PM (#5457436)
Career w/RISP

Votto: .335 ba/.591 slg
Giancarlo: .267 ba/.496 slg


Don't tell Marty Brennaman.
   44. SoSH U at work Posted: May 17, 2017 at 12:35 PM (#5457452)
I think GuyM has made particularly strong anti-Jeter arguments here at BBTF in the past (I believe he's argued that BB-Ref actually over-rates Jeter's fielding).


I asked him his position, when the subject came up previously. And if I'm not mistaken, he said even with his well-covered misgivings about Jeter's defense, he'd vote for Jeter for the Hall. It's possible he's changed his mind since then.
   45. Rally Posted: May 17, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5457541)
I think Mike Humphreys is the guy you want. He's the one who wrote the Wizardry book on his defensive regression analysis stuff and used to post a lot on BTF. Haven't seen him post here in a while though. He has gone to the extreme to argue Jeter isn't worthy of HOF induction.
   46. QLE Posted: May 17, 2017 at 02:16 PM (#5457588)
Anyway, the second part of that ("WAR is...driven by longevity") is true for everyone, since it's a counting stat.


And, even then, there are elements to this argument that are misleading in Jeter's case- while there is considerable accumulation in his record, his WAR for his ten best seasons is at 54.1. Among Hall of Merit position player inductees who 1) played predominantly in the 162-game schedule era, and 2) weren't catchers, that is better than Craig Biggio (53.3), Will Clark (45.9), Andre Dawson (52.8), Darrell Evans (47.3), Dwight Evans (48.7), Tony Gwynn (51.8), Keith Hernandez (52.7), Harmon Killebrew (49.6), Paul Molitor (52.6), Eddie Murray (51.1), Rafael Palmeiro (51.5), Tim Raines (52.8), Willie Randolph (48.3), Reggie Smith (51.4), Willie Stargell (46.9), Lou Whitaker (50.6), Billy Williams (53.6), and Dave Winfield (48.5). In order to keep him out on these terms, you'd either need a much smaller PHOM than the one that is actually in place, or would need to be able to demonstrate that his defense was far worse than what the statistics indicate.
   47. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: May 17, 2017 at 03:19 PM (#5457664)
Career w/RISP

Votto: .335 ba/.591 slg
Giancarlo: .267 ba/.496 slg


Don't tell Marty Brennaman.


22.6% walk rate in PA with RISP, only 13.3% walk rate with bases empty. Obviously, he is scared to swing the bat with RISP. </Marty>

the Younger Brennaman has been harping on Votto some this year. Joey is hitting .446/.547/.857 with men on-base.....
   48. Walt Davis Posted: May 17, 2017 at 11:46 PM (#5458121)
If you are looking for "fearsome" power (or power), it's ISO, not SLG. Or probably better, on-contact numbers -- K-rate is related to BA which is related a bit to ISO. Anyway, Votto's career ISO is 226, Stanton's is 273. Votto's SLG is "inflated" by his BA. Thanks mostly to all those walks, Votto has just one 30 HR season (barely missing 2 more); thanks almost entirely to injury, Stanton has only 3. (Stanton has "seasons" of 27 HR in 470 PA and in 318 PA.) Career HR/PA rates of 4.1 vs. 6.1%.

That said, obviously pitchers know they'll have a harder time getting Votto out.
   49. Walt Davis Posted: May 17, 2017 at 11:50 PM (#5458122)
On "clutch" ... just to pull one.

Jeter, 2 outs RISP: 816 OPS vs. career 817 OPS
ARod, 2 outs RISP: 849 OPS vs career 930 OPS

So ARod "choked" to the tune of 80 OPS points ... and you'd still rather have him at the plate. In this clutch situation, ARod out-hit Jeter by 33 OPS points; in other situations by about 115. Why do I care that Jeter was "clutch" and ARod wasn't if ARod was the better hitter in both scenarios?
   50. PreservedFish Posted: May 18, 2017 at 12:02 AM (#5458125)
If you are looking for "fearsome" power (or power), it's ISO, not SLG.


But nobody said anything about "fearsome power." It's just fearsomeness.

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