When the A-Rod trade was made, I pointed out Alex's declining OPS+ numbers and other than '05 he's pretty much continued on that downward path. Strikeouts are going up, defense is going to crap, walks are up this year, according to Chone his time to 1B is going down...what does everyone think of this and the effect it could have on the career numbers it seems everyone has expected him to end up with? Does Jeter project better going forward despite being older?

No, Jeter has never projector better than Arod. And he won't, sorry.

Using BPro's WARP3 says that '04-'06 A-Rod has been/is worth 28.4 WARP3 and Jeter is at 29.5. Coupled with A-Rod's speed decrease and strikeout increase you don't think it's at all possible, SJ?

All I can say is that A-Rod was slow on his first inning GIDP last night, around 4.6 to first.

He may have just had a lot of trouble getting out of the box, or didn't run hard at first, or he's playing hurt...but if 4.6 is the best he can do you can kiss the SB's goodbye.

Fascinating stuff. I love the (all too rare) mechanical analyses, much better than the constant diet of statistics.

Hot dog, that was fascinating.

Don't most teams have extensive video dept's now? If what Albert says is true -- I don't know enough about the mechanics of a swing to know, but it's pretty convincing -- how can A-Rod and/or his coaches not have spotted this?

KK, based on what we see/hear on broadcasts, Donnie HAS spotted this, it's just that A-Rod continually falls into the habit for some reason. What makes it so frustrating is that everyone realizes what's going on. He'll hit into DPs and generally ground out to 3B and then will rip an absolute bomb deep into the LF seats and you KNOW that doesn't mean the struggle is over because while the result was nice, the process was the same poor one.

A-Rod's EQAs since 2000: .342, .331, .324, .321, .308, .349, .303.

Jeff does some really interesting work. I'm really looking forward to the piece on Andruw.

I think A-Rod gained 20 pounds or so over the offseason to, I don't know, play an even bigger role in the middle of the lineup, as if his numbers weren't good enough already. It might have been to not wear down in the postseason too. The extra weight in theory was also not going to effect his defense at third because of the limited area he covers. Maybe the weight gain is not the problem but for whatever reason, his bat looks slower, his range looks diminished and he's slower to first base.

extra weight is not negatively effecting Miguel Cabrera's hitting - he is bigger and better than ever

All I can say is that A-Rod was slow on his first inning GIDP last night, around 4.6 to first.

He may have just had a lot of trouble getting out of the box, or didn't run hard at first, or he's playing hurt...but if 4.6 is the best he can do you can kiss the SB's goodbye.

Then with his .733 SB Pct., he sure must know how to read the pitchers. Plenty of speedy RH hitters hit into lots of DP's, and all it means is that they're not quick out of the box after a hard swing and followthrough. It doesn't necessarily translate into any other facet of play.

Andy, Chone's comment wasn't about the DP as much as it was about the time it took A-Rod to get to first.

Norcan, the weight gain was preceding '05. I heard no such stories preceding this season and he actually doesn't look as big this year as he did last, at least to me.

He took a while getting out of the box, I noticed it too, all his weight was on his back foot.

all his weight was on his back foot.

exactly

I'm really looking forward to the piece on Andruw.

Me too. Andruw swing has become so ridiculous this year, his back knee ends up on the ground half the time. Not that I'm complaining, it's obviously working for him. The home run he off of Chan Ho in Petco this year that almost hit the scoreboard was about the hardest hit ball I've ever seen.

Not everyone experiences the same effects from extra weight. In Cabrera's case, he was always a chubby, big-butt kid and his natural frame might just bear the weight better.

I'm not saying it's definitely the weight that's caused A-rod to struggle but from last season to this season, one of the biggest changes has been the 20 pounds he gained over the offseason and with him looking slower in different areas, I wonder if the weight gain has anything to do with it.

MG2, have you always been on baseball analyst, or did they recruit you after the marcus giles discussion a month ago?

I'm not saying it's definitely the weight that's caused A-rod to struggle but from last season to this season, one of the biggest changes has been the 20 pounds he gained over the offseason and with him looking slower in different areas, I wonder if the weight gain has anything to do with it.

Do you have a link that shows where it says A-Rod put on weight between '05 and '06 because I know of no such talk.

Andruw swing has become so ridiculous this year.

The broken bat homerun the other day was pretty incredible.

This is the first guest article I've done for baseballanalysts.com, or any site for that matter, but I began studying video and analyzing my own swing while playing in college almost 5 years ago.

I saw a quick replay of Andruw's broken bat HR and was impressed that it went to dead center. But I'm less impressed because the last person I saw hit a broken bat HR was Juan Uribe - not exactly a big time power hitter (although not a slouch)

Robert-
you're right about Andruw's swing this year. I think it is so hilarious and an incredible feat of knee and ankle flexibilty. He ends up leaning back so far (but it happens well after contact and does not have the effect as seen in Giles or A-Rod) it looks like he is about to use the catcher as a recliner. And not only does he get his back knee to nearly touch the ground, he does it while the inside of his back foot and ankle is nearly touch the gound also. give that a try